NFP in less than 22 hours.... Are you ready? Dont be too exposed.
- #34,341
- May 3, 2012 8:31am May 3, 2012 8:31am
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,825 Posts
- #34,342
- May 3, 2012 8:53am May 3, 2012 8:53am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #34,344
- May 3, 2012 10:17am May 3, 2012 10:17am
- | Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Just a trader of trades ... (5 | 1,439 Posts
r:r 1:4 okay - good point to close first tp
40 points later
enigma4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
- #34,345
- May 3, 2012 10:30am May 3, 2012 10:30am
- | Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,539 Posts
r:r 1:4 okay - good point to close first tp
40 points later
enigma4x
- #34,348
- Edited 4:43pm May 3, 2012 1:06pm | Edited 4:43pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
EU, and What's Up For Friday:
The H1 chart shows today PA came back up to test SR, and then dropped decisively back down. The key here is to look at the volume-price picture of this move to test SR.
M15 gives us that volume-price picture. It is astoundingly clear that the move up to SR was put on by the market as a drive up to get sell orders executed at the SR level; closing of longs and opening of shorts. This is proved by the spinning top candle with the very small spread as PA hit the SR area. This spinning top candle had the highest concentration of trading for the entire day! And that was obviously the whole point of the drive up; to achieve higher prices to sell at!
Therefore, with NFP coming tomorrow, and this very telling PA today, it looks a good bet the market is bearish on the immediate future. And, going back to the H1 chart and looking at price swings, it is a good bet (imho) that another 100+ pip swing down is in the making, which lands the price around the RWL mark tomorrow.
Speculative,
-tah
The H1 chart shows today PA came back up to test SR, and then dropped decisively back down. The key here is to look at the volume-price picture of this move to test SR.
M15 gives us that volume-price picture. It is astoundingly clear that the move up to SR was put on by the market as a drive up to get sell orders executed at the SR level; closing of longs and opening of shorts. This is proved by the spinning top candle with the very small spread as PA hit the SR area. This spinning top candle had the highest concentration of trading for the entire day! And that was obviously the whole point of the drive up; to achieve higher prices to sell at!
Therefore, with NFP coming tomorrow, and this very telling PA today, it looks a good bet the market is bearish on the immediate future. And, going back to the H1 chart and looking at price swings, it is a good bet (imho) that another 100+ pip swing down is in the making, which lands the price around the RWL mark tomorrow.
Speculative,
-tah
- #34,349
- May 3, 2012 1:41pm May 3, 2012 1:41pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Hy proffesor Tah ,please can u tell us what a yours management rules,how much do u risk per/trade?2%;5%;10; of u account?
I still dont now what management rules to use?
Thanks for yours A;
Regards,
ExpresID
Trade Well
There is an expression about how Big Money Players manage to win so dramatically, and by squeezing others into losses. The expression is, "....they can afford to be wrong longer....", implying that they continually trade against the price direction while continually driving the price in that direction! For example, if the Big Money Players are driving the price up while shorting, this technique attracts the longs into the market, enabling the Big Money Players to continually take the short side of those trades, while they continue to drive the price higher. At some point, the Big Money Players will reverse the price, and score more and more profits as the price continues to drop over time.
Why do I talk about this? Well, my personal trading style has a lot to do with my perception of what the Big Money Players are doing. If I believe in a trade, but then price runs against me, I sometimes just let it run....put the trade on the "back burner" figuring eventually it will come back to make profit. How long can I afford to be "wrong" like the Big Money Players? That depends on my trade size and account size. I have often stated that I trade small relative to account size, and it is for this very reason. This can be nerve wracking, cumbersome and wasteful of the time value of money. And it is something I am moving away from continuing. But, in over a year of such management, there has not been one trade where price did not eventually move back into the profit zone!
So, with my effort to change, my own "style" is in a state of flux, and therefore I cannot make any recommendations yet based on what I am doing. What I can recommend is that Sonicers be picky about the trades, because the best setups, far more often than not, provide very good R:R ratios (small SLs vs TPs). Trading profitably really comes down to just that.
-tah
- #34,351
- Edited May 4, 2012 1:14am May 3, 2012 4:42pm | Edited May 4, 2012 1:14am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
GU, and What's to Come Today:
H1 shows, as with EU yesterday, PA tested SR. M15 shows, with only about two minutes into a new TF, the trading already accomplished in a small spread candle at the attained highs, compared to about as much trading that accomplished this drive higher to make this current candle activity possible. This is a pump 'n dump senario underway; selling at the attained highs. IMHO, this senario will be repeated until the releases later today. And it will be repeated with more activity, and maybe at higher prices still. And this is telling us what the market sentiment is. It is bearish in the face of upcoming releases. And the market is pumping up the price now, to get what will be more profitable short orders executed before the releases hit; pump and sell, pump and sell, etc.
Please keep in mind that just because the market might be stepping the price up, and pouring on the sell orders at the top of each new step, this is not a Sonic R. trading strategy for entering a short trade! Nobody knows when the last step occurs, so entering at any step might have you entering way too soon. The Sonic R. System says wait for the Dragon and PA to show the way, and not to try to pick the high!
As with EU, looking at swing potential on H1, another 100+ pip swing down from the last high might be the market's plan to close out the week, which will put price around RWL.
Speculative,
-tah
H1 shows, as with EU yesterday, PA tested SR. M15 shows, with only about two minutes into a new TF, the trading already accomplished in a small spread candle at the attained highs, compared to about as much trading that accomplished this drive higher to make this current candle activity possible. This is a pump 'n dump senario underway; selling at the attained highs. IMHO, this senario will be repeated until the releases later today. And it will be repeated with more activity, and maybe at higher prices still. And this is telling us what the market sentiment is. It is bearish in the face of upcoming releases. And the market is pumping up the price now, to get what will be more profitable short orders executed before the releases hit; pump and sell, pump and sell, etc.
Please keep in mind that just because the market might be stepping the price up, and pouring on the sell orders at the top of each new step, this is not a Sonic R. trading strategy for entering a short trade! Nobody knows when the last step occurs, so entering at any step might have you entering way too soon. The Sonic R. System says wait for the Dragon and PA to show the way, and not to try to pick the high!
As with EU, looking at swing potential on H1, another 100+ pip swing down from the last high might be the market's plan to close out the week, which will put price around RWL.
Speculative,
-tah
- #34,353
- May 3, 2012 6:52pm May 3, 2012 6:52pm
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,825 Posts
r:r 1:4 okay - good point to close first tp
40 points later
enigma4x
- #34,354
- May 3, 2012 7:37pm May 3, 2012 7:37pm
- | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: PA & VSA "lead" the way | 414 Posts
GU, and What's to Come Today:
H1 shows, as with EU yesterday, PA tested SR. M15 shows, with only about two minutes into a new TF, the trading already accomplished in a small spread candle at the attained highs, compared to about as much trading that accomplished this drive higher to make this current candle activity possible. This is a pump 'n dump senario underway;
Speculative,
Inserted Video
nice commentary as usual tah
- #34,355
- Edited 8:17pm May 3, 2012 7:51pm | Edited 8:17pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
Reversal in Holiday...(Went short, see pic.1)
pullback.. so far .. still fine...(Went long, see pic.2)
i am keeping long aussie , since just now... (Went long again? See pic. 3)
The idea behind posting trades is to help others, by providing well illustrated and annotated examples of applying the Sonic R. System. This is so that others can have more examples to help them as students of the Sonic R. System. You aren't doing that. You aren't helping anyone with these kinds of posts. In fact, you are hurting the thread by increasing its irrelevant content that others must wade thru to get to the relevant material.
Please read:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post5630544
I know you are capable of better, and of being a good contributor to the thread.
-tah
- #34,356
- May 3, 2012 8:04pm May 3, 2012 8:04pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #34,357
- May 3, 2012 8:14pm May 3, 2012 8:14pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #34,358
- May 3, 2012 8:42pm May 3, 2012 8:42pm
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,825 Posts
jasakreatif, why do you bother to post this stuff? Is this the 2nd or 3rd trade now you mention this week? For none have you posted at the time of entry all the data, the EP, SL and TP(s). Nor have you followed up with a posted picture showing how the trades concluded, if they have been. In two of the posts you don't even show the Symbol to help the readers, let alone the rest of the key elements. What is the point of your posting this stuff?
[b]The idea behind posting trades is to help others, by providing well illustrated and annotated...
not 3 but 4 trades i've posted this week
close manually
75pips in 2 minit
i love this game .....
no fine.. traillstop hits 3 times.. small pips +
( but i really like something different unique
as long as still get profit, not trouble )
- #34,359
- May 4, 2012 12:30am May 4, 2012 12:30am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #34,360
- May 4, 2012 12:51am May 4, 2012 12:51am
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 9,075 Posts
i am keeping long aussie , since just now , was denkst du ?
IMHO, do not use it..
It repaint aka crap..
Sonic