EurAnalysis

Close the FF and watch your charts, that's the first step to success

sure,then how if you miss me later ? without FF sometimes..do u consider meet me mah ~ ? drop me ur skype or messenger mate,am think to leaving

Note : if u r love me..lol

skype hendrik--, I don't use it much.
No need to leave FF completely, people will miss your hairy girls.

You are welcome here and we move on and grow. Life is about balance and moderation and stopping to smell the roses and taking care of yourself and your family. We are our brother's keepers in that we are all unique and equal. Having money does not give you any more rights than another although in real life it does. Life is never fair however Life is what you negotiate. If someone lacks in integrity then they will negotiate with the Devil and perhaps have money yet they will lose their soul. I would rather be poor with a soul than rich without heart and soul. If you can achieve both than you can make this world a better place to live in for all of us.

Time to refocus on Forex and GoldMan speaks the truth. Good Trading...

Couldn't agree more it takes all the outside analysis out of the picture and allows you to focus on the task at hand.. After you've made your daily requirement post all you likes and read all the right/ wrong analysis trading is psychologically much easier that way!

hello rod! how r ya? slow internet here lol.

Hi reckon I'm good and you? Coming up to exam time and the end of my penultimate year the real shit starts next year! How's work and life?

Glad to know you are progressing well to the future, all the best for the exams sure you'll do well there.

I'm excellent. Last two years were very tough for me professionally, financially, personally in all aspects. Life has taken some tough exams in this period but now it is an excellent time I am spending.

My first company contacted me and re-hiring me in an excellent position where i will be working on developing various automations for the team, working on their ideas.

Some good things are happening in personal areas also will talk you about later

rekon ru from karnataka?

Great to hear it reckon! I'm interning for the summer which I'm quite looking forward to as it's a hedge fund which primarily invests in derivatives so I hope to get a full time job from it or at least some valuable experience.. I also want to start my own company however getting investors these days is proving difficult I have about 40 interested parties but I really need 100 so perhaps it's best that I leave it as a pipe dream and go about working the traditional way!

Pm if you'd like to chat I'm very busy during the week but I'll do my best to reply and harpe I must reply to you too I haven't forgotten

The channel has been losing strength since april 25 looking the RSI. This is a good signal that the move is a retracement and it is near to finish. The resistance is still 1.3285 that we need to hold and then break the channel to expect bearish vias. The money is in the "park" below of the "BIG W"...

This is more difficult. If this is a bullish channel (black) it should break 1.3285 and hold it. If this is a wedge (red) it should get down to 1.305 first before go higher. And the last one is the green triangle; if this possibility works it should reach 1.30 again and then return.

In all 4 views just one should break 1.3285 and 3 just touches it. So I will open two short positions in 1.3285 SL above 1.33 and I will wait what happen. If the channel is broken and 1.32 is broken too I will open two short positions more. TARGET 1.306

If I see the BIG W, I will open more short positions and TARGET should be the Hell of the Hell!

Now we await market events and actions. This is the start of NFP week ending May 4, 2012 Friday and ADP is on Wednesday May 2, 2012 at 8:15 AM EST with New Jobless Claims on Thursday May 3, 2012.

We also need to watch Spain, Italy and Bond Yields in Europe.

Will the Equity Markets Sell Off for Risk Off ? How will Oil and Gold perform ?

EUR/CHF is near 1.2000 now !!! Will there be Intervention ? USD/JPY is at 80.26 now and will it go below 80.00 ?

Will US Bonds Be Sold or Bought this Week ?

The market will soon give us the answers and then we can react as need be. We now have the Technical Position and some Fundmental questions and soon it will start to unfold as Japan prepares to open followed by Frankfort and then London and then North America.

It is time for my nap now...

I just want to point out interesting angles on Daily - only two times in last 12 months bull trend was 45 degrees or less for a period of two weeks...

If the Equities Markets GO DOWN then We have Risk Off. That is why it is important to know something about the Equities markets as well as the Forex Markets.

This Is From my Email today and I share it here for information purposes only. If it does not interest you then just scroll down.

Stocks and Shocks: what to do?
April 29, 2012

How do we avoid walking into a “left hook” in the markets? That was the discussion this week during a client review. “Can’t you see them coming and avoid them?” he asked.

Well maybe some folks can, but the issue of investing with possible shocks as an outcome is a very difficult one. Do you position for the worst outcome? If yes, you would never invest in anything. Do you anticipate the best outcome? That seems foolish. Is there a middle road? We think so and that is why we use a combination of ETFs and bonds. That is why we recommend diversifying risk among several asset classes.

Below this introduction is a partial list of upcoming potential shocks. As readers will note, we can see the potential shock relatively clearly. Scott MacDonald of MC Asset Management calls them “dangerous seas ahead.” His maritime metaphors sequence the Titanic and the Lusitania. Lehman-AIG and the meltdown were the Titanic. “This leaves us to wonder if the US economy is not like the Lusitania, operating in a high risk environment, but felt to be safe from prowling German U-boats in the North Atlantic.” ponders Scott.

Of course, we cannot know the result of a potential risk before it happens. We cannot know the outcome and the policy shift.

Therefore, the anticipatory period preceding the risk and the aftermath, if as and when the risk is realized, are not symmetrical. In other words, you are investing in asymmetry. Knowing this in advance allows an asset-allocation rebalancing as the circumstances and probabilities change. In other words, reassess, reassess, reassess risks and rebalance, rebalance, rebalance.

Some of the discussion in our new book addresses these types of asymmetries.

Now let’s get to some potential shocks and comment about them.

Possible shock number 1. The Fed will cease “Operation Twist” on June 30. They confirmed the policy shift as recently as this last meeting and Bernanke’s statement. What will a twist cessation bring to bond yields? Will it change home mortgage interest rates? Delay a housing market recovery? Alter the steepness of the yield curve? Or the flatness of the yield curve? What happens to bond credit spreads? Pricing of repo collateral? Maybe the whole thing will pass as a non-event. Nobody knows.

Possible shock number 2. The so-called “fiscal cliff” is approaching at year-end. Strategas’ Dan Clifton and Jason Trennert have hammered this theme. Their summary identifies three elements: “… roughly one-third of the entire tax code expiring at the end of the year, the spending sequester beginning on January 2, a debt ceiling increase needed in the six weeks after the election and before the end of the year.” How much will markets anticipate these outcomes? How deep is fiscal drag? Is there a fiscal drag? Is Ricardian equivalence dead? How large is the policy shift danger to our country from the Congress? From this president? From next year’s president, re-elected or new? All of these tax-spend-borrow outcomes are probable in the present-day realm of American politics.

That puts our American destiny in the hands of a class of people who are very unpopular and despised by the majority of American citizens.

Our politicians have become the scurrilous, scatological scoundrels that we elect and send to Washington. We include both political parties in this opprobrium. Jack Bittner asks if we should limit all pols to a single term.

Possible shock number 3. The Bank of Japan has leaped to the top of the G4 central banks when it comes to balance-sheet expansion. BOJ announced an increase in the rate of asset purchases and an extension of the duration of the Japanese sovereign debt it will buy. Initial market reaction was that this plan is “not enough.” BOJ is trying to get Japan’s inflation rate UP! They have not succeeded in the past. Is this time different? What will be the impact on the foreign exchange markets? Will the yen weaken? If so, which currency will strengthen?

We have written in the past that FX market adjustments are quite distorted when the G4 central banks are all maintaining their policy interest rates near zero.

Possible shock number 4. The FDIC limit on non-interest-bearing demand deposit insurance is scheduled to revert back to the pre-crisis level at the end of this year. We quote from the FDIC website: “From December 31, 2010 through December 31, 2012, at all FDIC-insured institutions, deposits held in noninterest-bearing transaction accounts will be fully insured regardless of the amount in the account. For more information, see the FDIC's comprehensive guide, Your Insured Deposits, at www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits.” What will be the impact in the money-market end of the yield curve? Will there be an extension of the termination date if markets begin to tighten?

What will happen to repo rates? Repo collateral pricing? How closely is the Fed watching this development, since the Fed has been providing the market with more repo collateral (T-bills) through its Operation Twist? Is there a relationship, or will there be one? Can the banking system withstand larger withdrawals of zero-interest deposits if corporate agents deem deposits to be insecure without FDIC insurance coverage? Note that the FDIC just closed five more banks this week. In the case of the Bank of Eastern Shore, Cambridge, Maryland, the FDIC has not found a buyer or merger partner, and the uninsured depositors are at risk of loss. Readers who are still worried about the safety of their bank deposits may check the FDIC website for the current rules.

Possible shock number 5. Watch the price and futures prices of Brent crude. Many are sanguine about oil and energy pricing and the gasoline price. We are not. Libyan production is not coming back in a hurry (hat tip to Barclays for superb research on the risk of Libyan civil war). Geopolitical risk is high in the Persian Gulf (Iran) and in Nigeria (see the developing news story of turmoil in this important oil-producing country). Worldwide demand for oil inexorably rises. US energy policy still fails to accelerate our move to energy independence.

Despite Energy Secretary Salazar’s protestations, the fact is that the Obama Administration has a failed energy policy and continues to pursue it. We do not drill, we do not encourage the use of natural gas in an accelerated and proactive way, and we do stymie new production and exploration. We do have pipelines running in the wrong directions, and we do have distorted domestic oil pricing because of excess inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma. At Cumberland, we remain attentive to this sector even as the market has become sanguine about it. We continue to hold our oil-energy-exploration and oil-service positions.

The range of forecasts of the oil price is a mile wide. We have seen a low of $40 a barrel within two years and a high of $175. We lean to the higher price, not the lower one.

I will stop now with the list of possible shocks and leave it to the reader’s imagination to complete this compendium with thoughts about Europe or China slowing or future inflation risk.

Here is how we see the portfolio management decision. Remember this is today. It could change tomorrow, next week, next month or next year. The operative structure is reassess, reassess, reassess, rebalance, rebalance, rebalance.

Cumberland continues its fully invested approach using ETFs. We have been in that mode since the bear-market bottom of October 3. We think the bull market that started on October 3 is only half over as to price change and only one-third to one-fourth over as to time. Of course, any shock could derail this forecast.

Our bond portfolios are slowly repositioning to a hedged or defensive mode. We have time. The process of moving from the present very low interest rates will require years and be volatile but gradual. Interest rates cannot go below zero. To get them above zero and into a more normal relationship, the G4 central banks must neutralize over four trillion dollars equivalent of excess reserves. Collectively they are still enlarging this position and are a long way from extraction from it.

Read “Death of a Theory,” by St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, in the March-April/2012 monthly bulletin of that bank.

David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

Resources:
To sign-up for Market Commentaries from Cumberland Advisors: http://www.cumber.com/signup.aspx

How Does It Match Up To Your Charts ?

Resistance: 1.3310 21 - Day Upper Bollinger

1.3300 Dn TL FM February 29 High

Support: 1.3200 Round Number Support

1.3167 21 - Day MA

1.3112 100 - Day MA

1.3100 Round Number Support

DJ MARKET TALK: Manufacturing Data, Central Banks In Focus For FX Mkts - BNZ

Posted on 29 April 2012 16:38 | Dow Jones Newswires


2038 GMT [Dow Jones] Currency volatility is likely to rise this week given a busy calendar of data and central bank meetings, says BNZ FX Strategist Mike Jones. He notes currency volatility fell to extreme lows last week as most of the majors remained relatively range-bound. He says markets will be watching the RBA and the ECB, however, "data-wise, this week is all about manufacturing." With the Chinese PMI due for release Tuesday followed by manufacturing data in Europe, the U.K. and the U.S., Jones says this week's data may struggle to match investors' solid global growth expectations and "should this pan out higher yielding growth sensitive currencies like the AUD, NZD, CAD would be expected to underperform their more defensive peers such as the USD, JPY and GBP." ([email protected])

Sunday 29 April 2012

The Week Ahead

Lloyds, RBS, BP, US unemployment

Banking results season gets in to full swing with Lloyds and RBS giving first quarter updates. There are plenty of other blue-chip companies clamouring for the limelight but it will be hard to ignore the first quarter update from BP on Tuesday, while on the economic front, US jobless figures for April will the highlight on Friday.

On the subject of nationalised bank Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Credit Suisse said: "Having seen a strong performance YTD [year-to-date] we were disappointed by the scale of the announcement of GBM [Global Banking and Markets] restructuring. Since then the debate has moved on to discussion surrounding government exit strategies, which will likely support the stock in the short term despite sub-sector return profile."

Across the pond, US non-farm payrolls is, as ever, the first key economic indicator to be released for the preceding month.

Expectations are that payrolls will have increased by 175,000 in April, following on from March's 170,000 increase. The unemployment rate is seen staying at 8.2%.

I'm still trying to identify the true value of fridays high as on every f**king retail platform these numbers differs.

EDIT: I'm betting on a new HH just a few pips above around 1,327x for havy SHORT as many large specs are shorting it too last couple weeks..

It all depends on the broker and who they get their quotes from.
The larger brokers have multiple feeds from different banks. Some of them offer the best price and some of them give an average.

Even with McDonald's, you won't find the Big Mac priced exactly the same in all their restaurants.

At least with Forex, the difference is very rarely more than a few pips.

I understand it.. just in the perfect world sl's should be much more tighter