- #10,142
- Apr 28, 2012 6:30pm Apr 28, 2012 6:30pm
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts
Observation is the path to discovery.
- #10,143
- Apr 28, 2012 8:25pm Apr 28, 2012 8:25pm
- | Joined Mar 2012 | Status: PA & VSA "lead" the way | 414 Posts
If this is what happens, its likely going to coincide with the SPX at least testing its high, possibly besting it. Should it fail to go higher, and the nice big H&S its making comes to pass, USD bulls will likely get their wish.
No. I still think weīll get our way. I donīt think SPX will make a new high.
I'll do one better and do both by rewording my statement. If the SPX doesn't make a new high, it will possibly complete a H&S pattern (actually its not that big) that could coincide with the USD finding support on that lower channel line. Timing wise it would add up, markets head down and people hilariously still flee to the USD driving it up, even after all that nasty printing, and likely more to come once the markets fall.
It gives me great pleasure to introduce a new EA that will handle your Recovery trades automatically. The author is beto21_cwb. For his great work, I have vouched for him and added him to the Extreme TMA Hall of Fame.
Thanks, Beto.
Thank you, Al.
As you said through e-mail, we hope we don't need to use it !
- #10,146
- Apr 29, 2012 2:59am Apr 29, 2012 2:59am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts
Sorry Al I wasn't clear in my last statement. Sometimes a chart speaks louder than words
If the SPX doesn't make a new high, it will possibly complete a H&S pattern (actually its not that big) that could coincide with the USD finding support on that lower channel line. Timing wise it would add up, markets head down and people hilariously still flee to the USD driving it up, even after all that nasty printing, and likely more to come once the markets fall.
Anyway, that wedge that S&P has formed since August is scary. It has broken already to the downside. Add to that the H&S being formed and you have a test of the August lows as a real possibility. What could cause such a steep drop in what everyone says is a "cheap" market? Probably Euroscares again. Maybe the French election, maybe Spanish 10 year bond rates. Who knows? The fact is, for technicians, the road map is right there in front of us and it is really difficult to ignore.
Please, keep these charts coming. They are really helpful. Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
- #10,147
- Apr 29, 2012 3:09am Apr 29, 2012 3:09am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts
Observation is the path to discovery.
- #10,148
- Apr 29, 2012 3:19am Apr 29, 2012 3:19am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts
Observation is the path to discovery.
- #10,149
- Apr 29, 2012 3:38am Apr 29, 2012 3:38am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,836 Posts | Online Now
- #10,150
- Apr 29, 2012 3:41am Apr 29, 2012 3:41am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,929 Posts
Observation is the path to discovery.
- #10,151
- Apr 29, 2012 3:54am Apr 29, 2012 3:54am
Jose
What is FXCX FOREX TREND please ?
Is-it a kind of a FISHER ?
It's repaint ?
Have you only .ex4 and not the .mq4 ?
Thank's a lot and sorry for my very bad english
cheers
jean-francois
- #10,153
- Edited 6:38am Apr 29, 2012 6:03am | Edited 6:38am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 271 Posts
I see every one here giving their opinions on the Euro so I thought I would join the party and shock everyone. The Euro isn't going anywhere anytime soon, how about that? lol The Euro has become a reserve currency where Europeans (and other that hold Euros) sell their Euros to invest in other things and buy them back when they are trying to get out of risky assets? The Euro has been closely correlated with both USD and US markets since January. If the economy in Europe does deteriorate enough to bring down the Euro, the ECB will step in to save the economy which will have an undesired effect of raising the Euro. The USA and European economies are very similar and depend on each other. Lastly central banks are not going to let their respective currencies go up against the Euro because this will hurt exports to Europe. I am not bullish and I am not Bearish. I am neutral. I believe we will be trading between 1.20 and 1.40 for many years to come and possibly even between 1.25 and 1.35. This is not to say that we won't see big movements in the Euro relative to other currencies especially EURAUD, EURNZD, EURCAD as well as exotics. However the world's most liquid pair I believe is staying put. I do think there is one thing that could change this relation at least until it finds it's new range. That is if some countries decide to leave the Euro whether by force or voluntarily. Also another crash of the S&P would also cause this. This is just my opinion and I take no responsibility if you listen to it. lol
Also on a different note we know the system excels in ranging markets so why not trade pairs that tend to range? For example, EURUSD (per the first part of this post), USDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, EURGBP, and maybe USDCAD. Basically you have risk currencies (like AUD, NZD, and CAD) and non risk currencies (like USD, JPY, and possibly EUR) so in theory the range should be limited in pairs where both currencies are from the same group like AUDNZD and USDJPY. My second part was where they have similar or related economies like USDCAD or EURUSD. Just a theory and untested but it should make recovery almost always possible.
Also on a different note we know the system excels in ranging markets so why not trade pairs that tend to range? For example, EURUSD (per the first part of this post), USDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, EURGBP, and maybe USDCAD. Basically you have risk currencies (like AUD, NZD, and CAD) and non risk currencies (like USD, JPY, and possibly EUR) so in theory the range should be limited in pairs where both currencies are from the same group like AUDNZD and USDJPY. My second part was where they have similar or related economies like USDCAD or EURUSD. Just a theory and untested but it should make recovery almost always possible.
- #10,154
- Apr 29, 2012 6:27am Apr 29, 2012 6:27am
Hi Lee!
Where did you hear about New Zealand slipping into the sea? I'm starting to get concerned!!!
Just kidding! LOL If it does, we may all have larger problems than our FX accounts!
I would say that recovery has a lot of faith involved, or confidence, really, that comes from years of experience. The kind that Alfredo and Bob have. It's the kind that you can't give away, even though they are both incredibly generous, and would if they could. They can point us in the right direction, though. After that, it's up to us to think...
We learn our comfort zones, they are not innate. Comfort comes from practice and success and that's why I wanted to be clear on the real levels of risk in the Recovery..., and more importantly, how often it goes how deep. If RBNZ (sorry, don't mean to pick on the Kiwis here, lol) cuts it's rates by 200 bps you can be sure I'll pull the plug on any NZD longs I have.
I remember being on the wrong side of trades when that amazing coordinated liquidity shot by all the major central banks occurred some months ago..., 'sell Mortimer, sell!!'
So, E.E.Man, you ask how I would manage it. Last week I'd average out by looking for bounce levels..., this week I may cut loose a brand spanking new EA to do it for me, pretty cool that I can set the levels. And, sometimes when I don't want the exposure I'll take a small loss..., it will all depend on the day, wind direction, and other stuff.
Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
- #10,157
- Apr 29, 2012 8:18am Apr 29, 2012 8:18am
Hello Jose,
What is FXCX FOREX TREND please ?
Is-it a kind of a FISHER ?
It's repaint ?
Have you only .ex4 and not the .mq4 ?
Thank's a lot and sorry for my very bad english
cheers
jean-francois
I use this ind for exit and entries, I have only exe file. It was created by a good men named Richard to whom i owe what i know so far. He was excellent man.
Sorry for my english too.
Note: In case anybody want to contact me, i use a lot my skype: jose.rumbaut
Cheers
Jose
