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Extreme TMA System

  • #10,081
  • Apr 27, 2012 10:48am Apr 27, 2012 10:48am
The Recovery System

I'm thinking out loud here and would like to know if I'm clear on this. Let's say I'm risking 1% kicking Recovery in at 100 pips.

At 100 pips underwater my risk is 1% , level 2 = 3%, level 3 = 6%, level 4 = 10%, pull the plug at level 5= 14%

So, if this thing runs it's course and New Zealand slips into the sea along with the NZ$ my usdnzd short will cost me 14% of my account starting with 1% risk profile.

I'm not doing this to scare myself or anyone else, the chances of pulling a plug at level 5 are extremely rare (right?) I want to be sure I understand the worst possible case scenario.

One other question would be lowering the jumps to 50 pips, how would this affect the process?

Many thanks! I'm loving this place!

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #10,082
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:01am Apr 27, 2012 11:01am
Quoting bassramy
Food For next week thought.
Indeed this is what I was warning someone about earlier in shorting Gold.

Gold put in two hammer candles on Daily on a very important Trendline, and has been moving up ever since. Its stuck on a small downward Trendline right now so its sandwiched for now. I plan to trade in the direction of whichever TL breaks, though I should have already been long when the hammers were confirmed yesterday as the odds look to be in longs favour here imho, especially if the USD keeps moving down.

The USD broke under a very important 8 month old TL, if it also breaks under the 78.80 pivot it is now fighting with, I don't like the USD any more and favour Gold
  • #10,083
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:27am Apr 27, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Alorente
Here is all I need. I thought about including RSI but in the end I did not, because I would rather have as much space for candle action as possible. I scalp in 5M but 1M will work just as well with this.
Hi Big Al! I downloaded the pack, and I have a Question you use scalping with the old Rules right?

What does the Big White dots mean?

Que opinas con lo sucedido con el Real Madrid y el Barcelona??
  • #10,084
  • Apr 27, 2012 11:51am Apr 27, 2012 11:51am
Quoting bassramy
Kindly Note that its Way too Early to shrt EU,a good level will be Yesterday's High + top of H1 Bnd on M15 high ATR @ 1.3260.

Best Regards,

Let's Wait and see.
u were right, closed my trade for -15 as soon as i saw blue candle
thanks for ur advice
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #10,085
  • Apr 27, 2012 12:33pm Apr 27, 2012 12:33pm
well looks like he did afterall- dollar pretty weak across board

Quoting bman204
No he didn't, he said they would use it IF necessary if the economy doesn't meet their projections, which he has been saying all along. He also showed that 2013, 2014 are the most likely times for them to implement QE. This spike up was caused by all the questions about QE that was asked to Bernanke, he had to answer them with the answer of them implementing it if necessary. This spike up was caused partly by this and also partly to get stops out, get a higher price to sell against USD.
Its all in the mind.
  • #10,086
  • Apr 27, 2012 1:21pm Apr 27, 2012 1:21pm
S&P downgrades Spain's sovereign credit...UK officially in recession since last Wednesday......and how does the market react? Euro and Ģ sky rocket. Are we traders irrational or are the markets being manipulated.
Maybe we should start betting on football matches or maybe not given this UEFA champion's league semi final results (sorry Al).
Just some food for thought for the weekend. Nice weekend to all traders...
  • #10,087
  • Apr 27, 2012 1:43pm Apr 27, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting domino01
S&P downgrades Spain's sovereign credit...UK officially in recession since last Wednesday......and how does the market react? Euro and Ģ sky rocket. Are we traders irrational or are the markets being manipulated.
Maybe we should start betting on football matches or maybe not given this UEFA champion's league semi final results (sorry Al).
Just some food for thought for the weekend. Nice weekend to all traders...
Stop run, big guys parking some money in carry trades for the weekend is my guess, HFTs doing what they do best.
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #10,088
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:18pm Apr 27, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting Forex Girl
[color="Blue"][b]Al and Friends,

Iīve been used the semafor_3 indicator as shown by SCOTT-ibm.
Searching the MQL4 page I saw the indicator MTF Zigzag with 3 level created by rockyhoangdn.
3 TF Zigag Level with same settings as shown in the figure below. I think it very interesting.
Maybe, we could set to show only level 3 (matches multiple...
What settings do you use for Grossperiod, Grossperiod2 and Grossperiod3?
  • #10,089
  • Edited 2:40pm Apr 27, 2012 2:25pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting Grins
The Recovery System

I'm thinking out loud here and would like to know if I'm clear on this. Let's say I'm risking 1% kicking Recovery in at 100 pips.

At 100 pips underwater my risk is 1% , level 2 = 3%, level 3 = 6%, level 4 = 10%, pull the plug at level 5= 14%

So, if this thing runs it's course and New Zealand slips into the sea along with the NZ$ my usdnzd short will cost me 14% of my account starting with 1% risk profile.

I'm not doing this to scare myself or anyone else, the chances of pulling a plug at level 5 are extremely...
Hello Mr. Lee. This is how I handle recovery trades. I never play more than 3 levels at a time. (that is if I follow my own rules) If I take on a 4th level i close the 1st level. This puts a kill on account damage control. Second, I am not afraid to pull the plug on a trade if I think it is going to be bad against me in the long run. So what is the future of the pair your are recovering on. If it looks bad I pull the plug early and dont bother. Not all trades are worth recovery. Third, you need to get your spacing right. Recovery of less than 150 pips can get dicey and on volatile pairs 250 is more my territory. 200 is more my speed on most pairs. I also do not double my lot sizes, I am not a martingaler. I may increase the size starting the 3rd level but usually my first 2 levels are the same size. 5 levels is the deepest I have really ever gone when I do it right which means i took two losing trades on that group. You mentions that nzd/usd is the pair of choice. It is now reaching weekly resistance 1 on my charts and i am down in that pair so my 2nd level will be placed in that area depending what happens after the gaps on Sunday. nzd/usd goes outside R1 often enough but not that much farther so it is at retracement level now. A common occurance at closing on Friday for this pair. So put a MA on the screen and look to enter off of the cross on the 4H or Daily chart. This will give you a good spot to recover from or set a pending sell at the weekly R1. Anyway 7 of the last 8 times nzd/usd was at this spot it retraced so I would place a CT trade inthis area. Just look at a 4H or Daily and you will see what I mean. Good luck.

Interesting that the nzd dropped nicely on the eur and gbp but rose against the dollar and CHF. Hmmmmmmmmmm.
  • #10,090
  • Apr 27, 2012 2:32pm Apr 27, 2012 2:32pm
Here is the nzd/usd 4H chart and 7 of the 8 price rejections at this point. #7 was a little higher than the rest but successful. The next level of recovery after this spot would be about 150 pips away. Your chances are very good especially with strong sells on the gbp and eur. NZD fundamentals are strong for ranging at this point in time. See pic below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #10,091
  • Apr 27, 2012 3:57pm Apr 27, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting nanningbob
Hello Mr. Lee. This is how I handle recovery trades. I never play more than 3 levels at a time. (that is if I follow my own rules) If I take on a 4th level i close the 1st level. This puts a kill on account damage control. Second, I am not afraid to pull the plug on a trade if I think it is going to be bad against me in the long run. So what is the future of the pair your are recovering on. If it looks bad I pull the plug early and dont bother. Not all trades are worth recovery. Third, you need to get your spacing right. Recovery of less than 150...
Thank you! I'm not in nzdusd, was just using that as a doomsday scenario, I like the principles of recovery and you have helped me understand it better.
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #10,092
  • Apr 27, 2012 4:28pm Apr 27, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting nanningbob
Here is the nzd/usd 4H chart and 7 of the 8 price rejections at this point. #7 was a little higher than the rest but successful. The next level of recovery after this spot would be about 150 pips away. Your chances are very good especially with strong sells on the gbp and eur. NZD fundamentals are strong for ranging at this point in time. See pic below:
Hello Nanningbob,
Thank you for this explanation, i see that your NB 10.2 4H is almost ready, i can not wait...

Have a nice we
Sabrina
  • #10,093
  • Edited 4:30pm Apr 27, 2012 4:28pm | Edited 4:30pm
Quoting Grins
The Recovery System...I'm risking 1% kicking Recovery in at 100 pips.
At 100 pips underwater my risk is 1% , level 2 = 3%, level 3 = 6%, level 4 = 10%, pull the plug at level 5= 14%
So, if...New Zealand slips into the sea along with the NZ$ my usdnzd short will cost me 14% of my account starting with 1% risk profile.
I'm not doing this to scare myself or anyone else,...
Lee
Hi Lee!
Where did you hear about New Zealand slipping into the sea? I'm starting to get concerned!!!

Just kidding! LOL If it does, we may all have larger problems than our FX accounts!

I would say that recovery has a lot of faith involved, or confidence, really, that comes from years of experience. The kind that Alfredo and Bob have. It's the kind that you can't give away, even though they are both incredibly generous, and would if they could. They can point us in the right direction, though. After that, it's up to us to think for ourselves and find the way that works for us.

I would ask, in the spirit of learning to find our own way, and not looking for a system that spoonfeeds its users, but inspires them to think for themselves, how would you handle recovery that would not exceed your risk comfort level?

The caveat was to trade small, very small, which means different things to different people, depending on their account size. Personally, I would not use a cast-in-iron amount to risk. Only risk what you, personally, are comfortable with. If I have a $250 account, which one of mine is, and I lost 14% = $35, I think I could handle that, comfortably.

Multiply that times 10, and I've lost $350, and I could probably handle that if it was a rare, very rare, occurrence.

What would be important is the frequency of the occurrence. If it occurred once in 10 times and the other nine times I recovered the 100 pips at risk, I would have recovered 900 pips compared to a $350 loss.

If it occurred 1:25, obviously, I'm ahead of the game, surely. If it's 1:50, well, that's obviously a great deal. I'm not sure that Al has had a loss in recovery, but I think that he said that he went to level three a couple of times, and that was very rare, so obviously, it's working very well for him, wouldn't you say? And I'm sure that it works well for nanningBob.

But both of them thought out this idea based on their experience, or were experienced enough that when they heard of it, they knew immediately that it would probably work for them. Be sure that you are ready to use any idea that you run across, that it makes sense to you, and that it fits your personality! Otherwise, you risk the old kick-yourself-in-the-pants for doing something that lost you money that you didn't feel good about in the first place!

If you don't want to risk 14%, how would you manage it? I can think of a way, very easily, to mitigate the loss so that it comes back to BE without risking more than 100 pips. In fact, I can think of a way to do it with less, but 100 pips may be a reasonable amount, based on Al's observations. But, that's because I've given it a lot of thought.

How would you do it, though? (Seriously.)

(Please, do not think I'm bating you, or being sarcastic, as that's not my style. Someday, perhaps sooner than I expect, I'll have to stand in front of the Big Guy Upstairs and account for my attitude. I want that to be a pleasant experience! That's my goal here on this planet! )
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #10,094
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:23pm Apr 27, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting Ever E. Man
Hi Lee!
Where did you hear about New Zealand slipping into the sea? I'm starting to get concerned!!!

Just kidding! LOL If it does, we may all have larger problems than our FX accounts!

I would say that recovery has a lot of faith involved, or confidence, really, that comes from years of experience. The kind that Alfredo and Bob have. It's the kind that you can't give away, even though they are both incredibly generous, and would if they could. They can point us in the right direction, though. After that, it's up to us to think...
I love these games! It's Friday, let me ruminate for a day or two. I appreciate your time and I'm not going to answer with my immediate knee jerk answer, it may not be correct.

Lee
"The more I practice the luckier I get." Gary Player
  • #10,095
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:46pm Apr 27, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting Alorente
...It is always amazing to me how extreme a market gets before finally collapsing. What everyone wants to buy today (Euro), nobody will want for free tomorrow. It happens over and over again in the markets. Itīs the same in stocks. I still remember being dumbfounded at the internet bubble in the 90īs. For months I couldnīt believe that the thing kept going higher, until, of course, it blew up...

I should be used to these obscene excesses after so many years doing this, but it still shocks me. That is why it is so important to leave yourself plenty...
LOL Yes, but it's so funny to me, actually!

It's pretty easy to explain, I think. No real mystery. It's a form of "love" (infatuation, really) born out of elevated expectations and over-confidence.

Studies show that during the first year that a couple is "in love", they produce chemicals that effect their perception of each other. They only see the idealized version of the other person, their little peccadillos are "charming" (later to become annoying ). Their appearance is "perfect" (later to become flawed).

The reasoning-brain is over-ridden by these chemicals, but after a year it re-engages, and you see the real person that you got involved with! What a shock that can be!

Gotta be something similar happening with traders. They always think that it's going to the moon, and that they can "handle it!"

(How did that work out for you? )

A great chance to learn the hard lessons of life, no te parece? (Is that correct?)
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #10,096
  • Apr 27, 2012 5:50pm Apr 27, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting Grins
I love these games! It's Friday, let me ruminate for a day or two. I appreciate your time and I'm not going to answer with my immediate knee jerk answer, it may not be correct.

Lee
There is no correct answer. The answer that works for you is the correct one!

I'll be very much looking forward to your answer. It may help all of us, you know!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #10,097
  • Apr 27, 2012 6:03pm Apr 27, 2012 6:03pm
Quoting Favorite
Точно! Exactly!




As a good citizen I think we should have a hunting season on politicians to thin them out a bit. And I'm sure a hunting season on used car salesmen is a very good idea too!
Точно! Excellent idea, Mike! Not, really, of course, but tempting!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #10,098
  • Edited 8:27pm Apr 27, 2012 8:06pm | Edited 8:27pm
Hello all again

I would like to add my 2 cents here to that wonderful system. Attached is the pict where i show my exit criteria scalping with TMA 15m

Note: I don't know what happened when i uploaded the pict , if you see the lower sema , left to it is a vertical line, in the windows indicators part this vertical line was moved to right, the correct position is aligned with the vertical line in price chart. In that way you see how fxcx forex trend is align with the entry.

Sorry for my English

Thanks

Jose
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: scalp setup.jpg Size: 184 KB
  • #10,099
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:14am Apr 28, 2012 1:14am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8FQ5UM20120427
The consistency you seek is in your mind, not the markets. Mark Douglas
  • #10,100
  • Apr 28, 2012 1:49am Apr 28, 2012 1:49am
Quoting OzFXtrader82
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8FQ5UM20120427
Thanks
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
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