EurAnalysis

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/

After the bell, S&P downgraded Spain’s long-term credit rating to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A.’ While certainly not a surprise, the timing was a bit unexpected. The euro fell after the downgrade, and was recently at $1.3207.

In February, Moody’s cut Spain’s credit rating to A3 from A1, saying that the “country’s challenging fiscal outlook is being exacerbated by the larger-than-expected fiscal slippage in 2011, mainly on account of budget overshoots by Spain’s regional governments.”

The outlook on Spain’s credit rating is “negative,” which is three notches above “junk” status.

the fundamentals have been out there, i guess it took the S&P to finally nudge it off the edge

seems like we're battling it out around 1.319 at the moment

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...t-concern.html



Spain’s Ratings Cut by S&P on Deficit, Bank Bailout Concern


By Cordell Eddings - Apr 26, 2012 5:42 PM ET




Play
Spain Debt Downgrade, U.S. Economy, Currencies

Spain’s sovereign credit rating was cut to BBB+ from A by Standard & Poor’s on concern the nation will have to provide further fiscal support to the banking sector as the economy contracts.
Spain’s short-term rating was lowered to A-2 from A-1, while the outlook on the long-term rating is negative, New York- based S&P said in a statement today.

Enlarge image http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iQyQrfNvXrpA.jpg Spain’s Ratings Cut by S&P on Deficit, Bank Bailout Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iUatpWwLXj0s.jpg Angel Navarrete/Bloomberg

Job seekers outside a job center in Madrid, Spain, on April 2, 2012.



Photographer: Angel Navarrete/Bloomberg




The nation’s 10-year borrowing costs have climbed about 70 basis points this year as Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy struggles to convince investors he can control public finances amid soaring unemployment and a contracting economy. Banks threaten to disrupt the premier’s efforts as bad loans reach the highest levels in almost two decades.

“Spain’s budget trajectory will likely deteriorate against a background of economic contraction,” S&P wrote in the statement. “At the same time, we see an increasing likelihood that Spain’s government will need to provide further fiscal support to the banking sector. As a consequence, we believe there are heightened risks that Spain’s net general govern debt could rise further.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...al_System.html


Greyerz - Bankrupt Nations Desperate to Save Financial System

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that bankrupt nations are now printing money in a desperate effort to sustain the current global financial system. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. Von Greyerz also reiterated that tens of trillions of dollars still need to be printed. Here is what Greyerz had to say about the situation: “There is so much happening in the world now. We’ve had another package here, just under 400 billion euros (for the IMF). This is an absolute drop in the ocean. Spain needs many times that (amount). I’ve talked about trillions and maybe even tens of trillions (that need to be printed going forward).”








http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...peimage_22.png

So they (the IMF) raised 400 billion from various nations, but where is the money coming from? The majority is coming from Europe and the EU. (They are) all bankrupt. They have no funds. They have to print money. Japan, which has the biggest debt to GDP ratio of most industrialized nations, they are a major contributor of about 60 billion. So it’s ridiculous. Here is the bankrupt helping the bankrupt.


The massive problems that the world is experiencing started with the US subprime market collapsing. That has not been resolved yet. Nowhere have we seen a change in the direction of the US economy, which is down....


Mortgage delinquencies are at a 23 year high. 20% of US mortgages are in the red, about eight million mortgages, and home foreclosures are at a record high. The banks still have take enormous write-offs.



Then you have a lot of people who think the US is in a lot better position (than Europe). The US people are suffering. 47 million people are on food stamps and only 41% of working age Americans have a job. How can things be improving when fewer and fewer people are working and the average wage is coming down.



Here you have the Fed coming out and saying, ‘Things are improving and we are not going to print any money because everything is fine.’ How can they say that when the country is in an absolute mess?



The focus has been on Europe in the last year or so, but I don’t think we are far from shifting the focus to the US. When the world realizes the problems are massive in the US, as the figures are starting to show, then we are going to see unlimited money printing.”



Von Greyerz had this to say about gold: “Gold has been under pressure for the last week or so and we’ve gone sideways for almost eight months. But we have to remember we are going sideways at a very high level. Depending on your currency, gold is only down 10% to 13% from the peak.



So, I think gold is behaving extremely well. If you look at the physical gold market, all of the sovereign banks are increasing their holdings. None of our investors are selling physical gold. They know what’s coming. All of the pressure is in the paper market and that market is going to disappear in the next few years because people are not going to trust the paper market.



Technically it looks as though gold has made a bottom. I said we had made and bottom in January and now gold made a higher low yesterday. We have seen the end of this correction and I think a major move is coming. It (gold) is like a coiled spring. There is massive energy in the gold and silver market now, and that energy is going to release very soon now in my view.”



The John Embry audio is available now and be sure to listen to this week’s incredible line-up of other KWN interviews, which include Art Cashin, Jim Sinclair, John Hathaway, Stephen Leeb, MEP Nigel Farage and Gerald Celente. You can listen to these interviews by CLICKING HERE.

Gold Will Win Money War


April 26, 2012, at 3:03 pm
by Greg Hunter in the category USAWatchdog.com |


By Greg hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,
It was recently reported that countries like China and India are going to buy Iranian oil with gold. Jim Sinclair of JSMineset.com said this week, “The implications of China paying for Iranian oil in gold is the most important event in the modern history of gold.” He also said that gold could go to “$3,000 per ounce” as nations around the world revert back to gold as the only form of payment “free of liability.” (Click here to read Jim’s complete post.)There is nothing short of an epic battle quietly going on between real money (gold) and paper money (the U.S. dollar). In the end, the real thing will win out. Today, Jim Willie of GoldenJackass.com explores the battle lines and explains the global money war. Please enjoy.
———————————————————–
US Dollar VS Gold: Epic Money Battle


By: Jim Willie, Guest Writer for USAWatchdog.com

The so-called Global Financial Crisis is a term so widely used that it has earned its own acronym of GFC. When first seen, it seemed like girl friend club or some such, since many friends use GF loosely to refer to sweethearts. The GFC is falsely named, since it is more accurately described as a global monetary war with the US Govt vigorously defending its franchise in the US Dollar for crude oil and trade settlement, and for bank reserves management. Take either away, and the other departs quickly, leaving the United States vulnerable to a quick ticket to the Third World marred by price inflation and supply shortage, even isolation in ring fences. On its own devices, the US is in as bad shape as the worst of the PIGS nations. The US Govt debt is above 100% of GDP finally. The annual deficit of $1.5 trillion could not be financed in normal methods. So the US Fed is the adopted buyer of last resort, purchasing over 80% of new and recycled US debt issuance. The Interest Rate Swap tool acts like a hydraulic howitzer, in pushing down the long-term interest rates by creating false artificial demand. Without the IRSwap contract, a Morgan Stanley specialty, the US interest rates would be 6% to 7% just like Spain and Italy. The US Treasury Bond is not a safe haven, but rather a place where Weimar printing press operations persist, where decisions like SWIFT code rules are enforced like a illicit weapon, where billboards are painted to attract embattled investors of impaired toxic sovereign bonds from Southern Europe to retreat to the supposed safe haven of US TBonds.

More…









The Golden Army


April 26, 2012, at 11:01 am

by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |

My Dear Extended Family,
The degree of panic and hate mail I received in the last seven trading days almost broke the record of the first fall of gold from above $1000. A kind reader sent the following historical article to make me feel better.
It worked.

I feel great having once again told our gold army with only one gear in their fighting tanks, which is reverse, it would all be ok.

Yes, gold will go to overvaluation at a point in the future, but there is no major top yet. I was wrong recently that the $1630 area had been the low. The manipulators sure showed me the day after I posted that. It now seems as if the $1620 area was the low of the recent major effort to depress the price of gold.

Russia and Mexico as well as a host of other central banks bought cash gold, declared "check mate" and stopped the Crimex and gold banks dead in their tracks.

Central bank buyers are locomotives. The Crimex is a small lawn tractor in comparison. Never stand in front of a locomotive is the secret to Yra Harris’ long term, and I am sure forever, success. You can tell I am proud of my former partner, Yra.

Thank you again Christopher. I do know you are only as good as your last call.

That $1650 has been the Mother of all magnets.
Jim

Major Vindication for Gold’s Greatest Guru
By Christopher Barker
August 4, 2011

He has done it again! The man who earned the nickname "Mr. Gold" after precisely calling the top of gold’s previousbull market back in 1980, has just accomplished a feat that easily secures his legacy as the greatest precious-metals investor of our time.

Back in 2001, just as gold was recording a multidecade low beneath $300 per ounce, and the ancient monetary metal had been thoroughly outcast from the consciousness of financial markets, Jim Sinclair made an incredibly bold prediction. He forecast a powerful bull market for gold that would bring the price to at least $1,650 per ounce, implying about a six-fold increase from its price at the time.

In 2003, he launched Jim Sinclair’s MineSet, a website to host his daily commentary on gold and the key developments underpinning this ongoing secular bull market. Over time, the site developed a broad following among investors with exposure to gold. While his role as chairman of Tanzanian Royalty Exploration (AMEX: TRX ) remained his top priority, his persistent supply of insight into the gold market helped to steady the hands of gold investors as they confronted bouts of excruciating volatility and incessant calls for a collapse in gold prices.

I know that my own journey of investment in precious metals owes a portion of its success thus far to Sinclair’s unflappable vision of $1,650 gold as a foregone conclusion based upon a fully vindicated perspective of the macroeconomic landscape. Now, that’s not to say I adopted his perspectives on gold directly like an unquestioning disciple. To the contrary, I soon became frustrated by his insistence upon attaching specific timelines to certain forecasts; most notably when he became convinced gold would reach his $1,650 target on or before Jan. 14, 2011. I shared his confidence in the target price — even extending the mark to $2,000 for my own conservative long-term outlook — but I remained circumspect about the precise timing.

On the other hand, I believe his broader insights into financial markets have already proved remarkably astute. Those contributions are epitomized by golden nuggets like his 12-stage formula for higher gold prices issued in 2006, or this poignant radio appearance in 2009.
The making of a gold legend.

Gold’s detractors like to point to the metal’s decline from the 1980 peak to suggest that gold investors are likely to be left holding the bag when the metal carves a supposedly unforeseeable about-face. But try telling that to Sinclair, who ran a brokerage service at the time called the Sinclair Group of Companies, and knew precisely the implications of then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s aggressive campaign to raise interest rates to 20%. Sinclair sold 900,000 ounces of gold for an average price of $810 in early 1980, and walked away from the bull market with his winnings in hand.

From 1981 to 1984, Sinclair advised Hunt Oil and the Hunt family as they sought to liquidate their massive silver holdings that had played a role in silver’s incredible (first) spike to $50 per ounce. Later, he served as president of the commodity-focused Sinclair Global Clearing, and also president of a derivatives firm dealing in commodities and currencies. Perhaps the latter position contributed to his keen understanding of the dangers inherent in a heavily leveraged global market for derivatives, which forms a key foundation of his rather unsettling long-term macroeconomic forecast. But please, don’t shoot the messenger.

The golden perspective on the future of gold

Now that history will record Sinclair’s phenomenal call for $1,650 gold, issued a full decade in advance, his wildly successful participation in two consecutive bull markets for gold easily secures his legacy as gold’s greatest living guru. Whatever happens from here, no one can take away that record of achievement. But what has the guy whose target has now been met been saying about the outlook for gold beyond the $1,650 mark?

Earlier this year, Sinclair quipped: "I think that my price target of $1,650 per ounce gold is going to be so low it will be considered silly." Just a couple of months ago, with gold retreating to about $1,500 per ounce, Sinclair predicted: "The drop at this time will in retrospect be seen as the foundation for gold trading not at $1,650, but rather at $5,000 an ounce."

Just this week, on the eve of his price-target’s fulfillment, he offered: "Gold between $1,600 and $1,764 is deciding its new and elevated role in international finance." Indeed, after an entire decade of gains for the oft-maligned metal and the routinely ridiculed community of gold investors, the ancient currency is finally reasserting its rightful place on the world’s financial stage. So far in 2011, emerging-market central banks have already added $10 billion of gold collectively to their foreign exchange reserves .

Based in part upon the valuable insights into the gold market that I have gleaned over the years from Sinclair, I remain confident that $2,000 gold is likewise a foregone conclusion. Some of my colleagues may consider it the height of arrogance to project a forward price target for gold, adding to a veritable chorus of disparaging sentiments that I have encountered over the years as a consequence of my bullish stance on gold.
Undeterred, I continue to recommend that my readers allocate some portion of their investment portfolios to gold and silver through carefully selected equities. The Central Fund of Canada (AMEX: CEF ) remains the insiders’ choice for one-stop bullion exposure to both gold and silver. Speaking of silver, even though Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) has already advanced more than 1,400% since I pleaded with Fools to take notice at $2.51 per share in 2008, I still expect the stock to reach $100 before the precious-metals bull market loses steam. Even at these record-high prices, low-cost gold producers Goldcorp (NYSE:GG ) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY ) continue to trade at substantial discounts to my assessments of fair value. I believe AuRico Gold (NYSE: AUQ ) has its golden ducks in a row, and Rubicon Minerals (AMEX: RBY ) recently scored a new lease on life with a transformational strategic partnership.

The process of selecting the best precious-metals vehicles is a crucial one, but not nearly as crucial as the decision to seek some exposure in the first place. I believe the greatest risk relating to gold that investors currently face, is the risk of missing out on the powerful upside moves still to come. With that final point, I trust Jim Sinclair would wholeheartedly agree.
More…

thanks knoholygrail!


nice to have the good reads summarized in one space. no need to scour the web for reliable news and ignore whats just a pump and dump analysis.

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
True love is rare.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...02_thumb24.jpg

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

I do my best. Enjoy your voucher. Good Night...

Today is friday and have fun. Lot of pips today but dont get caught.

http://vimeo.com/29938326

What is this site all about guess not spamming here huh?

Bought @ 1.3195, stop at BE , TP primary 1.3220, 1.3235(2), 1.3260 (3)

Went with your quote. And I thought it would inspire those who are bored and waiting for EUR open.

ADD: Here's a 4H chart, maybe this will help others, maybe not...

http://i451.photobucket.com/albums/q...hart_5_eur.png

I'm still holding onto my shorts...

Does anyone know what made the EUR/USD plummet today ~3:45pm Central Time? Thanks.

You are welcome mate Needed a little bit introduction

S&P downgrades Spain to BBB+ from A

Good morning all

I got up a bit early today to await the BOJ rate statement and watch the potential fireworks. Waiting

I see Spain got slapped with another downgrade; this time from S&P by two notches with a negative outlook. Hardly a big surprise but it will take its toll on the pair. This is how the recent confidence in the Euro will be eroded again; bit by bit. The politicians spinning their hopium speak will not change the facts; only delay the inevitable. Anyway, Spain is small potatoes compared to Italy but it is certainly bigger than Greece. It will be very interesting to see how it all unfolds. As I have said over and over again, it's just a matter of time before the house of cards comes tumbling down. Without growth measures, the weaker EZ states are screwed and that has a significant impact on the entire region and the single currency. Growth can only come through increased competitiveness and that is currently only possible through a weaker Euro. Of course the ultimate fix is tighter fiscal integration which currently is lacking the will of the people.

So, what's on the menu today? Let's see what the BOJ decides and we'll go from there.

BOJ

Rates unchanged

More QE to the tune of 10 Trillion Yen

More to come and a press conference later.

ADD: JPY weakening across the board. Nikkei rallying. USD index finding bids.

What's the best way to digest this info?


PA wise, immediately after USD/JPY is spiking up (after a ~45 pip stop kill), EUR/USD down, assuming US dollar up?