EurAnalysis

Good morning, took a little scalp and playing my little tournament. Hope you doing well.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...e-of-hurricane

A Man Who Pulls No Punches. His Point Of View.

What an incredibly complex confusing and treacherous month. It can be safely said that 80% of the activity is almost totally kept from the public.

The financial system is breaking in an accelerated fashion. Compare to some grisly horror movie where a man is strapped in a chair. The more he moves, the tighter the bindings pull on his gasping throat and pressed nether stones. The most significant two factors at work are the Iran sanctions and their powerful backfire, and the futile efforts in Europe to stem the banking center collapse. The anti-USDollar federation that spans widely across the globe is gathering strong momentum. Financial aggression is being met by financial alternative development. As Greece moved off the daily news fabrication factory, the reality of a collapse in Spain and Italy has moved to the front center of observations. Meanwhile, the American nitwits continue to argue over Quantitative Easing when it never stopped, and in fact, went global under their noses. The US news machine, dominated by the syndicate, churns out absurdities after more nonsensical bites on an economic recovery. The subprime loan machinery has ramped up. The retail factor does not tell of strength, but of weakness. Spending on consumption does not indicate strength, but a path to ruin still not well recognized. The gap between reality and reports is diverging.

What follows will not be presented in great detail. That is saved for the Hat Trick Letter reports, where research has come across magnificent events in progress. As the calm spreads like a fog over the financial sphere, the level of risk rises. As the phony recovery stories propagate like a disease from the host, the level of risk rises. As the US political race takes center stage and the stakes increase, the level of risk rises. Events are catapulting in a loose coordination that is very difficult to observe, except for the quicksand in Spain.

Powerful False Calm Events

The subprime cancer has returned. The struggle to revive the credit engines has drawn the weaker elements into the room. Banks wish to lend more. While few players qualify for loan approval and partnership grants, the banks themselves have never been more insolvent. Without the FASB accounting largesse and generosity, all large US banks would be declared insolvent and prepared for liquidation proceedings. The junk bond warning lights are flashing. The movement to even remain standing still has come with greater risk assumed and embraced.

The anti-USDollar forces gather strength. The emerging nations had been making numerous significant bilateral agreements a month ago. The Iran oil deals had dictated some degree of innovation in payment systems in response. The sanctions forced their hands. Additional sanctions like usage of SWIFT bank systems as a weapon, threatening usage in Europe, resulted in a flash point. The BRICS nations, led by China, appear to be on the verge of launching a rival SWIFT bank procedure that might be critical in trade settlement. It is likely to be outside the US$ setting.

Prepare for the possibly sudden cardiac arrest event to the Petro-Dollar. In April 2010, a major conference took place in Abu Dhabi among Arab royals. They arrived in unmarked jets, over 200 strong in number. They struck important accords, including the reliance upon Russia and China in the security role for the protectorate. In essence, the Saudis worked to replace the United States in the protection racket that has endured since the 1973 embargo, manifested in trade surplus recycling, even as the Germans worked to establish the Eastern Alliance. If a new SWIFT system comes, then the foundation will be set to walk away slowly from the Petro-Dollar. Few see the pieces coming together. The impact on the USEconomy would be something between a wrecking ball and catastrophic.

China prepares to wrest control of the USDollar, for the stacks of reserves held outside the US boundaries. This is history in the making. If a Chinese USDollar is launched, and trades independently of the domestic USDollar, then it is Third World curtain time for the United States. The practical effect would be rampant price inflation from a devalued domestic Dollar. It would be rampant shortages, since the restated Dollar would not be a favored piece of paper, not with tremendous economic weakness, absent industry, insolvent banks, ruined states, bond fraud charges in every nook & cranny, war cost impact, and the big storm cloud of the runaway USGovt deficits which could tack on another $200 billion in March. The path is clear, which begins with over 50% in external held debt, then lost sovereignty, then foreign voices influencing key decisions, then wearing down the muscle mass of tools like the IMF and World Bank, and finally lost control of the global reserve currency. Never in history has a nation had control of its currency wrested by another nation. The reaction process by foreign entities to the USFed and USDept Treasury abuses to the USDollar in hyper monetary inflation have wrought vengeance at worst and survival tactics at best.

Germany has made preparations to leave the Euro currency union. The more accurate statement should be that Germany is preparing to take the Euro ball out of the park, to improve it, to sign new free agency team members, and to leave the Southern European nations to fend for themselves in a sandlot. The Latin remnant will be essentially bagholders left with the gristle, fat, and toxic matter of the Euro currency itself. What they hold onto will be devalued in a fast moving storm. The risk to Germany will be the opposite. They must sign up enough new trade partners so that whatever new currency (Nordic Euro, New Marc, Euro Mark) is not a victim of its own success. A fast rising new currency would inflict damage on the German export trade. Numerous financial safety nets have been created and loaded, designed to aid large German banks. Some might fail.

Spain is on the verge of rejecting the austerity measures and maybe the Euro currency. Refusal to swallow the poison pill might have some benefits, like not pulling the rug from under the economy in vast spending cuts. But the reality bites hard, as the Spanish Govt Bond yield will revisit its old high levels. Funding problems will become acute. Think NO WAY OUT. The 23% jobless rate in Spain is written like an unusual figure in the West, but it equals the United States. The US simply has better liars in the economic trenches and more thorough press control. The strain in Spain will likely rain chaos on the bond plains, sufficient to cause their leaders to show disdain for remaining within the strained Euro domain.

The USFed and Euro Central Bank are guilty of $5 trillion in paper binges in the last several months alone. The US Federal Reserve and the European Central Banks are operating like desperate siamese twins in the frantic rescue attempt to prevent a Western banking system collapse. ECB head Draghi might have expressed reluctance to trade in bad PIGS debt paper, but he has been the champion in EUR 3.1 trillion in window activity over just the last six months. Notice nothing is fixed despite the massive effort that has been no more than glorified paper mache application. It is a futile battle akin to the task of Sisyphus, who was forced to push a stone uphill, but every time he rested, it rolled back down the hill. Since the central bank paper merchants can only apply paper bandages to the paper wounds, the rotten limbs and appendages cannot distinguish between the old rot and the new fester that begins immediately upon treatment. Nothing is fixed, no remedy in place, none even attempted, nor is recognition of the problem part of the debate.

The US financial markets have become an abandoned playground left to the High Frequency Trading freaks and their cadre of corrupt video game ilk. Volume is way down on the NYSE. Fund outflows are magnificent for stocks, as the public aint so dumb after all. ETF-type congames are losing their appeal. As the LTRO effect wanes from central bank paper shell games played at windows, the financial markets are experiencing a vast low pressure zone. The windows will eventually all be shattered.

The US housing market is permanently destroyed. The Jackass has played word games since 2007 calling for a two-year decline. But my call has been repeated every year. Let the forecast be made in more plain terms. The US housing market will never come back. Its decline will go hand in hand with the deterioration of the USEconomy and lead the nation on the path to a USGovt debt default, accompanied by over 25 individual State defaults (called another name in legal parlance). The foreclosure parade is unending. The delinquencies mount unabated. The decline in home prices puts new household ranks into negative equity territory, exactly as Greenspan warned a year ago. What irony that the chief architect also acted as the Cassandra in warning. The banks refuse to liquidate, since doing so would expose their insolvent ruin and inflict even more deadly downdrafts in home prices, as well as expose the vast corruption among bonds, from false property titles to duplicate title usage to outright bond counterfeit, even to raids by past presidents.

The hidden factor in the systemic ruin was the China card played in the last decade. The decision to send US factories to Asia, starting in the 1980 decade with Intel to the PacRim, followed by a climax to China in the 2010 decade, will serve as the basis of a chapter in history that led to the US systemic ruin. The gold card was played within the Most Favored Nation status deal granted in 1999, since the Rubin team ran out of US gold, ran out of European gold, and needed fresh gold meat. The Chinese committed their gold hoard and promised to recycle trade surplus, just like the Saudis did with oil money. The Gold began but did not end with Fort Knox raids. The carry trade is the singlemost financial factor that pushed the nation to ruin. Nothing backs the USGovt debts, not with an empty Fort Knox, never to be audited, the home of nerve gas storage if truth be told. The deep storage gold on the USGovt balance sheets does not fool many people anymore, the subject of ridicule. The US is insolvent without collateral, facing a margin call, soon to lose control over its own currency. American life savings are at risk, while pensions have been gutted, but the sirens are silenced.

Gold Consolidates in Revolving Door

Since October, the pressure has been squarely on the US and EU central bankers to print money, to direct it to insolvent giant banks, and to prevent a collapse. They reacted to sovereign bond pressures. But at the same time they had to exert extreme force on the gold market, so it did not reflect the extreme debasement of money itself. Thus the huge naked short ambushes of gold. But during these past six months, a new coalition has emerged to exact a heavy cost on the gold cartel. They will lose one additional cartel member to the gold war battlefield with each and every illicit paper ambush. A big order is being filled in the last two weeks, a very big order, at a low price, by brute force. The result will be another dead cartel member. Its completion will be followed by another nice price rise. Whether the cartel is willing to lose another member bank afterwards as the cost of yet another paper ambush, hard to know. But the unshakable fact is that the global monetary system is being ruined. The confidence in sovereign bonds is at rock bottom. In Europe it is more clearly in the open, but in the US it is more hidden, as the safe haven ruse plays on.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...1-apr-2012.jpg

Somehow a $200 billion single month deficit for the USGovt credit card line does not juxtapose well with any claim of being a safe haven, no more than a metal flagpole is during a lightning storm. The biggest buyers of the USTreasury Bonds are the USFed and its handy printing press, used and abused frantically and at high volume speeds. Distrust of the monetary system will bring about the rise of a new system, backed by gold. However, the old system cannot be permitted to fall unless and until the new system is ready, in place, and fully wired. That day is coming soon. The signposts are in place, the painted messages legible.

the golden jackass is designed to inform and instruct in the complex ways of gold, currencies, bonds, interest rates,
stocks, commodities, futures, derivatives, and the world economy, with no respect shown for inept bankers and
economists, whose policies and practices contribute toward the slow motion degradation, if not destruction,
of the financial world ~ Jim Willie CB, aka "The Golden Jackass"


the golden jackass is designed to inform and instruct in the complex ways of gold, currencies, bonds, interest rates,
stocks, commodities, futures, derivatives, and the world economy, with no respect shown for inept bankers and
economists, whose policies and practices contribute toward the slow motion degradation, if not destruction,
of the financial world ~ Jim Willie CB, aka "The Golden Jackass"

If Draghi helps out, we could see another run towards 1.3230 area at London opening. Currently standing little above daily pivot...

Yep! 1.3220 primary TP!

Link to Draghi's testimony

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-liv...N&vodtype=Live

Present PA ... puzzling!
http://www.nobeliefs.com/puzzles/triangle-puzzle.gif

Nice puzzle

try this one:

I Love The Internet !!!

http://www.scribd.com/lucyoasis/d/35...ardest-Puzzles

Checkerboard" Puzzle
Abdul, the rug merchant, is in deep trouble. He has todeliver a ten-foot-by-ten-foot rug to a wealthy client by sun-down. He planned to make it out of a piece of nine-foot-by-twelve-foot carpet in his warehouse, but when he unrolledthe carpet, he found that someone had cut a one-foot-by-eight-foot piece out of its center. Quick as a genie, Abdulfigured out a way to cut the rug into two pieces that couldthen be sewn back together to form a solid ten-foot-by-ten-foot rug.
48
http://htmlimg3.scribdassets.com/3w5...f26a717403.jpg

Total carpet Area = 9*12 = 108
Required = 10 * 10 = 100
Lost = 1* 8 = 8

Available = 108 - 8 = 100 (so it is possible unless the Tailor is a retard )

Edit : What about my puzzle any one?

yes, it's a cool one

But, for those who searched the answer on google, please don't just post it here

DJ European Forex Technicals: EUR Staging A Recovery
Posted on 25 April 2012 2:36 | By Francis Bray | A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:

Forex spot: EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF

Spot 0559 GMT 1.3188 81.37 1.6138 0.9110
3 Day Trend Range Range Bullish Bearish
Weekly Trend Range Bearish Bullish Range
200 day ma 1.3401 79.66 1.5841 0.9083
3rd Resistance 1.3300 82.35 1.6291 0.9172
2nd Resistance 1.3282 81.78 1.6268 0.9141
1st Resistance 1.3229 81.66 1.6167 0.9121
Pivot* 1.3187 81.19 1.6136 0.9113
1st Support 1.3179 81.01 1.6100 0.9084
2nd Support 1.3152 80.86 1.6076 0.9045
3rd Support 1.3104 80.29 1.6001 0.9002

Intraday EUR/USD: Pressure is building on the important Apr. 20 high at 1.3229. Last week's bullish outside week and bullish engulfing candle underpins the near-term tone, and a fresh wave of EUR bull pressure would force a break into fresh three-week highs towards 1.3277/82.0 and 1.3300 on concerted strength. Failure to force a break through 1.3229 would prompt downside consolidation back towards Monday's low at 1.3104.

Weekly chart EUR/USD trend: Range.
Intraday USD/JPY: Last week's high at 81.78 is back within striking distance, following Tuesday's bull hammer candle. Tuesday's low at 80.86 protects the Apr. 16 reaction low at 80.29, and a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 81.66 will act as part of a significant resistance area that stretches to the 81.78 peak. Only a setback below 81.01 would suggest a return to the 80.86 low is on the cards.

Weekly chart USD/JPY trend: Bearish.
Intraday GBP/USD: The October 2011 lower reaction high at 1.6167 remains the focus, following this week's push into effective six-month highs. The powerful short-term and medium-term uptrends have created scope for further GBP gains to 1.6268 and 1.6291, as GBP bulls remain firmly in control. Weakness will attract support while the spot remains above 1.6100, protecting Monday's low at 1.6076 and single-print support at 1.6001 from last week's Market Profile.

Weekly chart GBP/USD trend: Bullish.
Intraday USD/CHF: Last week's low at 0.9084 is back under pressure, following Tuesday's sharp setback. Action remains confined within an eight-week bear pennant continuation pattern, and further weakness towards the pennant's rising support line at 0.9045 is threatened. Regaining ground above the 0.9141 intra-wave lower high is required to re-open Monday's peak at 0.9172.

Weekly chart USD/CHF trend: Range.

Forex spot: EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/CHF AUD/USD

Spot 0559 GMT 0.8172 107.29 1.2017 1.0307
3 Day Trend Bearish Range Range Range
Weekly Trend Bearish Range Bearish Bearish
200 day ma 0.8458 106.75 1.2159 1.0377
3rd Resistance 0.8230 108.48 1.2050 1.0455
2nd Resistance 0.8204 108.00 1.2035 1.0386
1st Resistance 0.8186 107.66 1.2023 1.0341
Pivot* 0.8167 107.01 1.2017 1.0297
1st Support 0.8144 107.09 1.2014 1.0277
2nd Support 0.8137 106.55 1.2008 1.0247
3rd Support 0.8067 106.32 1.1990 1.0226

Intraday EUR/GBP: Stages a recovery off 0.8144 to re-open the Apr. 20 lower high at 0.8204. Tuesday's push into fresh 20-month lows failed to attract follow-through weakness, and the subsequent higher close creates the opportunity for a corrective rally to the 0.8230 area. A downtrend extension below 0.8144 would put EUR bears back in control, exposing the August 2010 higher low at 0.8137 and the June 2010 reaction low at 0.8067.

Weekly chart EUR/GBP trend: Bearish.

Intraday EUR/JPY: The strong recovery off Tuesday's low at 106.32 brings the focus back onto the Apr. 20 reaction high at 108.00. Last week's bullish outside week underpins the tone, and the 106.32 low is destined to become a EUR bear failure low. A push above 108.00 is required to give the 106.32 low bear failure status, paving the way for more gains towards 108.48 and 108.76. Failure to force a break above 108.00 would prompt consolidation back towards the 106.32 low, but only as part of a broader bullish continuation pattern.

Weekly chart EUR/JPY trend: Range.
Intraday EUR/CHF: Continues to trade without direction within a narrow range between 1.2008 and 1.2035. The lower half of the range is witnessing the most action, and support at 1.2014 and 1.2008 remain under threat. A push below 1.2008 would prompt further weakness towards the Apr. 5 spike low at 1.1990. Only above 1.2035 would negate the broader EUR bearish outlook, opening 1.2050.

Weekly chart EUR/CHF trend: Bearish.
Intraday AUD/USD: The resilient AUD is staging a good recovery that targets the Apr. 20 lower high at 1.0386. Tuesday's low at 1.0247 has already been confirmed as a near-term AUD bear failure, and a push above Wednesday's Asian session high at 1.0341 is required to re-open the 1.0386 lower high. The Apr. 13 lower high at 1.0455 would become vulnerable on a push above 1.0386. Only a setback below 1.0277 would undermine the AUD positive outlook, exposing 1.0247 and the important Apr. 11 reaction low at 1.0226.

Weekly chart AUD/USD trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; [email protected]
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
This is a financial news and information service. It is provided in general terms and does not take account of or address any individual user's position. To the extent that this article includes suggestions as to various possible investment strategies which users might consider, it does so in only general terms without reference to the personal factors which should determine any user's investment decisions. Nothing contained in this service constitutes personalized investment advice. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information in this article, and any errors shall not be made the basis for any claim against Dow Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article. This article does not constitute or form part of any invitation or inducement to buy or sell any security.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 25, 2012 02:36 ET (06:36 GMT)

The two triangles are not the same, it's an optical illusion at the diagonal line..those are not identical

Nice exercise ... since the dumb IT of my company is in process of installing some softwares in my machine and give me some idle time ... Go E/U go ... TP increased 1.3240 !

No ..not that easy ... you can count the squares and small triangles into both of the Triangles ... you'll get same count.

the sum of the red and blue hypotenuse is different than the hypotenuse of the entire triangle..it's curved

excellento !

Two more clash points before 1.3280 ... 1.3225, 1.3250 .. I expect NY bullish naturally for today ..hmm.

Target BULLISH in Double YELLOW TL's in my previous Post #79591 Apr 22, 2012 1:21pm

Close in Green
Prepare for Long again In NY

Hmm..what about that butterfly?