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Simple Fibonacci Trading

  • #741
  • Apr 23, 2012 6:54pm Apr 23, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting kor
hi hugh, which fib drawing is more appropriate? the first had a set up at 50fib but there is none on the second, in this case, do we have to do trail and error for all possible fib drawing at different swing points and set the EA ? or is it advisable to wait for set up on the second pic?



first
Attachment



second
Attachment



thanks!
2nd would be the correct swing but why wouldn't you pull from top left to bottom right that swing first ? It wouldn't have triggered either way but just missed by a couple of pips.
  • #742
  • Apr 23, 2012 7:00pm Apr 23, 2012 7:00pm
Quoting kor
is this a valid signal?

eu, 4hr

Attachment
IMOP the area I marked in blue was a completed swing and was a solid trade. You could pull the fibs from the bottom but the success rate will be less.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #743
  • Apr 23, 2012 7:12pm Apr 23, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting turboguru
2nd would be the correct swing but why wouldn't you pull from top left to bottom right that swing first ? It wouldn't have triggered either way but just missed by a couple of pips.

hi turboguru, thanks for the reply.

let me clarify abit, do i draw the fib from the highest/lowest swing instead of pullback/bounce in a trend ?



heres the chart for au, is this what you are saying

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au24.4.3.png Size: 70 KB



i think i missed this fib but do i determine whether is the appropriate one as a higher tf always brings another direction? as for this, would you enter even though it didnt retrace to 50 and yet hit 32.8?

sry for the long string of questions, hope you are fine
  • #744
  • Apr 23, 2012 7:20pm Apr 23, 2012 7:20pm
Quoting kor
hi turboguru, thanks for the reply.

let me clarify abit, do i draw the fib from the highest/lowest swing instead of pullback/bounce in a trend ?



heres the chart for au, is this what you are saying

Attachment


i think i missed this fib but do i determine whether is the appropriate one as a higher tf always brings another direction? as for this, would you enter even though it didnt retrace to 50 and yet hit 32.8?

sry for the long string of questions, hope you are fine
Yes AU is down so to me thats how I would draw it and I have been letting the EA set the trades so this wouldn't have triggered. Its to hard to watch alot of charts use the EA some will trigger and some won't.The EA has helped me alot as far as setting the trades while I'm not here or looking at other charts.
  • #745
  • Apr 23, 2012 8:20pm Apr 23, 2012 8:20pm
I just read this whole thread, took notes and now I am ready for tomorrow. A lot of great posts in this thread. thanks to all who posted.
  • #746
  • Apr 23, 2012 9:24pm Apr 23, 2012 9:24pm
Congrats on such a successfull thread Hugh. Its great stuff!
Enter Signature
  • #747
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:12pm Apr 23, 2012 11:12pm
eu 1h

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu24.4.2.png Size: 73 KB



jus hit fib 50 but higher low forms, any advise?
  • #748
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:43pm Apr 23, 2012 11:43pm
Quoting kor
eu 1h

jus hit fib 50 but higher low forms, any advise?
Let the EA do it job. If price continue UP, the pending will be invalidated and removed ... If price goes DOWN, the trade will be entered ... and then become a valid trade.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #749
  • Apr 23, 2012 11:58pm Apr 23, 2012 11:58pm
thks ferrufx,

how about this? on situation like below, what would you do ?




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej24.4.1.png Size: 73 KB


ej 4h




Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej24.4.2.png Size: 71 KB


ej 1h
  • #750
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:04am Apr 24, 2012 12:04am
Quoting kor
thks ferrufx,

how about this? on situation like below, what would you do ?
I would trade the H4
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #751
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:09am Apr 24, 2012 12:09am
Quoting FerruFx
I would trade the H4

hm sry, but any reasons??
  • #752
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:31am Apr 24, 2012 12:31am
Quoting turboguru
CAD from last week set to BE just not doing much.
CAD is a little slow at the moment.
  • #753
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:32am Apr 24, 2012 12:32am
Quoting kor
is this a valid signal?
I agree with Ferru, not much of a trend and difficult to call at the moment.
  • #754
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:34am Apr 24, 2012 12:34am
Quoting Sarythsaya
Congrats on such a successfull thread Hugh. Its great stuff!
Thanks, glad you like it.
  • #755
  • Apr 24, 2012 12:37am Apr 24, 2012 12:37am
Quoting kor
hm sry, but any reasons??
I am finding 4 hour charts easiest to trade at the moment. This could be personal preference or just the way things are trading at the moment. There is nothing wrong with trading any timeframe you like but try and find trends or trend reversal points. This alone will increase your win rate.
  • #756
  • Apr 24, 2012 2:04am Apr 24, 2012 2:04am
Update on yesterdays trade.
Stopped out.
Trying to rationalise the use of the higher time frames to see if there was anything that I should have seen that would have kept me from entering.
The only thing I can see is an area of support around the 38 Fibo on the 4HR that perhaps I should have given more credit too. Also at that point there was a confluence of the 38 Fibo and a weekly pivot (not sure if anyone here uses floor pivots?) - so again may have been a heads up to caution against a short?
Also the upmove on the 4HR was perhaps too strong to trade a short on the 60min despite my analysis of going short based on weekly and daily trends.
It just goes to show how 'careful' we have to be.
On a final not on this trade maybe the 30 min charts are just too volatile for this strategy? Or it could just be me:-)

I've been trading US equities for 4 years now and FX is really new to me. I can't apply my same strategies so it's a whole new learning curve. When I think back to trading equities it took me 2 years to be comfortable with my strategy. I'm hoping this won't take quite that long given I have some experience in the markets - just not this one!

I can take losses and can deal with them psychologically so it's move on to the next trade :-)

Just need to get the entries down to a higher winning ratio.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 30min 3.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 4HR 3.png Size: 60 KB
  • #757
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:21am Apr 24, 2012 3:21am
Audusd looks nice on the 15 min.
  • #758
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:43am Apr 24, 2012 3:43am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Audusd looks nice on the 15 min.
I'm in on the hourly short!
  • #759
  • Apr 24, 2012 3:57am Apr 24, 2012 3:57am
Quoting Raggs
Update on yesterdays trade.
Stopped out.
Trying to rationalise the use of the higher time frames to see if there was anything that I should have seen that would have kept me from entering.
The only thing I can see is an area of support around the 38 Fibo on the 4HR that perhaps I should have given more credit too. Also at that point there was a confluence of the 38 Fibo and a weekly pivot (not sure if anyone here uses floor pivots?) - so again may have been a heads up to caution against a short?
Also the upmove on the 4HR was perhaps too strong...
GBP has alot of strength at the moment against all pairs.Also GY is one of the most volatile pairs to trade. Your fibs look good I would just watch another pr. Me personally I very rarely ever trade it also has a big spread.Just an opinion,
  • #760
  • Apr 24, 2012 4:07am Apr 24, 2012 4:07am
EJ , EU and CHF all triggered
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 22 KB
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