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Gp's simple daily fibonacci-based system

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Edited Apr 14, 2015 12:12pm Mar 11, 2015 11:40am | Edited Apr 14, 2015 12:12pm
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Hi everyone.
I have 4 very simple trading methods that I apply to: Trending markets, Ranging markets, Inside a Ranging Market and No Trade markets. I didnt invented any of them, the posts in this thread is just how I trade them. I will post my daily trade, the trade rules and any other information that is relevant to this thread. I hope you find it as helpful and I do.

But first, a little about me and why Im starting my thread. Im 64 years old and have been in my own business for over 40 years in a wide spectrum of businesses, mostly financial services. In addition I have played bricks and mortar poker for almost 50 years ; online for just over 6. Poker and the Forex have a lot in common. To be successful, you have to think long term and be disciplined and consistent

Like most people when I came to the Forex I spent a ton of time learning indicators, strategies, watching you tube and webinars. Tech analysis, fundamental analysis, volume spread analysis, scalping, day, swing and position trading. Three years later Ive come up with a trading plan that is comprised of: 4 trading methods, 1 money management strategy and application of the first two with patience and discipline.

My Method, Money management and Mindset are based on these principles. 1. Your trading career does not depend on: One trade, One session or One mistake. Decisions need to be based on the Long Term. 2 Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit. Don't try to pick tops and bottoms, pick profit. 3. People are allowed to have their own opinion, but not their own facts. Learn the difference. 4. All decisions need to be based on F.O.E. Relevant Facts, Relevant Options and then Picking the least of the Evils.

On to why this thread? Simple. In my opinion one of the most important things you can do is to be consistent and always try to learn something new. Being active in my own thread helps me to do that. Any how I hope you like the thread.

Fibonacci Rules
1. Check Economic Calendar for announcements in the next 24 hours to eliminate any pairs that have non farm payroll or interest rate announcements up coming. Wait until all major announcements are posted for the current 24 hours for the time frame you’re trading.
2. Identify the trend, up or down.
3. Apply the fib retrace tool to either previous days high low if you're trading after NY daily close or if you trading before the current day NY close then use current days high low. if market is up drag the fib tool from swing low to a swing high or if market is down from swing high to swing low
4. Place a pending order between the 50 and 61.8% levels with a stop loss at the 75% retrace level.
5. At the 38.2% Level change fixed stop to a trailing stop for half the pips from your entry to the 38.2% level.
6. At the 23.6% retrace change trailing stop for half pips from the 38.2% to the 23.6% levels.
7. At the 0% retrace change trailing stop for half the pips from the O% retrace level to from 23.6% level.
8. From the 0% Level on, adjust trailing stop to 30% of total pip gain.
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • Post #2
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  • Mar 11, 2015 12:31pm Mar 11, 2015 12:31pm
  •  free84
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: permanent beginner | 75 Posts
this way to trade make sense to me thanks to share gp
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Mar 11, 2015 1:31pm Mar 11, 2015 1:31pm
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting free84
Disliked
this way to trade make sense to me thanks to share gp
Ignored
You're welcome. I like it cause it's consistent: Entry, Stop Loss, Take Profit Targets. Which is great for newer traders. I found that it also works great for working on Patience and Discipline. If you've ever been following a trade and your rule says 50% Entry and price is around the 38% level, it's deadly sitting there waiting for it to go to 50% But if you practice the patience and discipline, in the long run, based on the balance of probabilities it works more time than it doesn't.

Yesterdays trade is pretty much the only trade I will post after it happened. From here on, any trade I post will be the actual trade I'm taking before it happens. I look at all market sessions, but most will be posted just before London open. Normally I only trade after all economic events for the pair I'm trading are posted for the past 24 hours so I can see short term effect. That's why my trades are posted later in the day.Anyway your welcome again.
Have A Good One
Gp
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Mar 11, 2015 3:10pm Mar 11, 2015 3:10pm
  •  Eureka
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 383 Posts
This looks like a simple system. I have subscribed to the thread. Very interested to learn more!!

Caroline
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Mar 11, 2015 5:07pm Mar 11, 2015 5:07pm
  •  benaiah
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 2,048 Posts
Hi GP!

Your strategy caught my eye, as it is similar to a strategy I've used based on 50% retracements.

Do I understand that you are saying you've used this strategy with a win rate better than 50%?

Also, do you use Mt4? If so, I have an indicator you might be interested in that shows multiple time frame moving averages on a single chart...

Another question... do I understand that you trade only once per day?
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Mar 12, 2015 12:39am Mar 12, 2015 12:39am
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
I’m Short on AUDJPY. Green is entry, Red is Stop Loss, Orange is Trailing Stop and Gold is 1st Take Profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: Today.png
Size: 27 KB
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Mar 12, 2015 12:49am Mar 12, 2015 12:49am
  •  Zhangqiaoru
  • | Additional Username | Joined Mar 2015 | 1 Post
HI,gp00053.

CONGRATS!
You have a great idea to share.I think these will be importat: Entry, Stop Loss, Take Profit Targets.It's not easy.

Best wishes,
Zhangqiaoru
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Mar 12, 2015 2:03am Mar 12, 2015 2:03am
  •  smartvin
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Member | 73 Posts
Intersting and subscribed
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Mar 12, 2015 8:30am Mar 12, 2015 8:30am
  •  Landline
  • Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Member | 1,722 Posts
Quoting gp00053
Disliked
Im Short on AUDJPY. Green is entry, Red is Stop Loss, Orange is Trailing Stop and Gold is 1st Take Profit {image}
Ignored
Hi GP

I'll keep an open mind for now, after all one losing trade doesn't say much at present. I like simplicity within a system and on that basis, I'll quietly monitor your progress in the coming days/weeks to see whether your system has any real promise or not.

Cheers LL
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Mar 12, 2015 9:53am Mar 12, 2015 9:53am
  •  mario777
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: invisible | 971 Posts
how do you trade on ranging markets?
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • Mar 12, 2015 9:55am Mar 12, 2015 9:55am
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting Eureka
Disliked
This looks like a simple system. I have subscribed to the thread. Very interested to learn more!! Caroline
Ignored
Thank and welcome to my thread. It is simple and consistent if you follow the rules. I found in the beginning the hardest part was which price action leg to get the best results. But like everything in Forex, mostly if you do or see enough, it sinks in. Anyway hope you enjoy the thread.
Gp
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:07am Mar 12, 2015 10:07am
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting benaiah
Disliked
Hi GP! Your strategy caught my eye, as it is similar to a strategy I've used based on 50% retracements. Do I understand that you are saying you've used this strategy with a win rate better than 50%? Also, do you use Mt4? If so, I have an indicator you might be interested in that shows multiple time frame moving averages on a single chart... Another question... do I understand that you trade only once per day?
Ignored
I'm not sure where I said anything about a win rate better than 50%. The only 50% I'm talking about is the halfway point of the price action leg I'm measuring. Yes I do use MT4 I don't use an indicator for the time frames. But I do scan multiple time frames before trading. Generally speaking I trade once a day. However I'm an opportunity trader and I check markets throughout the day and if I see something I like I will trade. But only under certain conditions and not very often.
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:22am Mar 12, 2015 10:22am
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting Zhangqiaoru
Disliked
HI,gp00053. CONGRATS! You have a great idea to share.I think these will be importat: Entry, Stop Loss, Take Profit Targets.It's not easy. Best wishes, Zhangqiaoru
Ignored
This what I have found. Nothing in trading in the Forex is easy. Very little is black and white, almost everything is in the grey. AS Retail traders we have to deal with a lot of situations that are not black and white and we don't have access to the tools the same way institutional traders have. (I hate the words, big money, professional and smart money traders. It implies the rest of us are not making money, we're unprofessional and we're dumb. So I call everyone who is not a retail trader an institutional trader.

So all we can do is: use a trading method that on the balance of probabilities will give us more positive results than negative over the long term, a money management strategy that compliments our trading plan and protect our bankroll while still building it, all this has to be done consistently applying patience and discipline.

My trade plan is made before I enter. Everything I do is a pending order. I found by marking with colored lines, at a glace you can see if you're trade follows the available information.
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
 
 
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:38am Mar 12, 2015 10:38am
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting Landline
Disliked
{quote} Hi GP I'll keep an open mind for now, after all one losing trade doesn't say much at present. I like simplicity within a system and on that basis, I'll quietly monitor your progress in the coming days/weeks to see whether your system has any real promise or not. Cheers LL
Ignored
Thank you I think you'll be surprised in a world based on complication, there are ways to achieve your goals by applying simple logic. Last night was just one of those nights. Perfect example of why you you need to use a stop loss of some sort.

Other than that here's my thoughts SD,SD,SW; O2On 2 the next trade
Some do, Some Don't, So What; NT
Have A Good One
Gp
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 10:59am Mar 12, 2015 10:59am
  •  Landline
  • Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Member | 1,722 Posts
Quoting gp00053
Disliked
{quote} Thank you I think you'll be surprised in a world based on complication, there are ways to achieve your goals by applying simple logic. Last night was just one of those nights. Perfect example of why you you need to use a stop loss of some sort. Other than that here's my thoughts SD,SD,SW; O2On 2 the next trade Some do, Some Don't, So What; NT Have A Good One Gp
Ignored
Agreed, and on that principle we can only wait and see what trade you intend making next....action speaks much louder than words when all said and done.

LL
 
 
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 11:38am Mar 12, 2015 11:38am
  •  gp00053
  • | Joined Apr 2013 | Status: Member | 202 Posts
Quoting mario777
Disliked
how do you trade on ranging markets?
Ignored
Depends. Sorry I'm not ducking the question. I will trade a range-breakout and/or inside a range. Depending on the information at hand, I either trade top of the range, bottom of the range or in betweeen the top and bottom of the range. Or I won't trade it at all. I'm looking for quality trades, not so much quantity. Just like my Fibonacci strategy, I have rules and a trade plan for ranging markets.
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 12:48pm Mar 12, 2015 12:48pm
  •  benaiah
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 2,048 Posts
Quoting gp00053
Disliked
{quote} I'm not sure where I said anything about a win rate better than 50%. The only 50% I'm talking about is the halfway point of the price action leg I'm measuring. Yes I do use MT4 I don't use an indicator for the time frames. But I do scan multiple time frames before trading. Generally speaking I trade once a day. However I'm an opportunity trader and I check markets throughout the day and if I see something I like I will trade. But only under certain conditions and not very often.
Ignored
Yeah, not sure where I got 50% win rate, ha ha. And you sound very disciplined with your trading.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 5:52pm Mar 12, 2015 5:52pm
  •  justlearning
  • | Joined Feb 2015 | Status: Member | 66 Posts
If it was so easy we would all be millionaires. Looking forward to seeing these live trades, will this be via trade explorer.
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 6:53pm Mar 12, 2015 6:53pm
  •  aje6767
  • | Joined Sep 2008 | Status: MEMBER | 224 Posts
Subscribed
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Mar 12, 2015 9:03pm Mar 12, 2015 9:03pm
  •  FXyao
  • | Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Member | 282 Posts
Gp,

I like your simple strategy because I am a simple minded person and will see how good is your method, therefore subcribed.. look like you lost the au trade, but keep posting your trade so we can learn more. thx
 
 
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