EurAnalysis

only here...our family chart sir...euranalysis...sometimes not perfect,but we can help one each other to improve

I am always surprised at human nature yet not really in the final analysis.

Look at Risk Off which we now have because of French PMI and German PMI.

That is a FUNDAMENTAL.

Now look at CORRELATION

USD/JPY is testing 81.00 at 81.05 and so EUR/JPY is weak now at 1.0658 from High of 1.0718.

That brings down EUR/USD as we can all see.

Money Flow Leads The Charts. The Charts can and do mislead. Risk On and Risk Off changes short term perception. That has been my experience. What has yours been ?

DJ MARKET TALK: Bunds Edge Higher After Germany PMI

Posted on 23 April 2012 3:40 | Dow Jones Newswires

0740 GMT [Dow Jones] Bunds edge higher after weak German PMI, helping the June futures contract to a fresh record high and the 10-year cash yield to an all-time low of 1.587%. Manufacturing PMI for April came in at 46.3, well below expectations of 49.0. The disappointing data helped June bunds and extra few ticks higher to 140.93, having already hit record highs earlier in the session. ([email protected])

i am in on the long side at 1.3141.lets what happen.rock n roll

Overall EZ PMI data...

Manufacturing: 46.0 vs 48.1 expected
Services: 47.9 vs 49.4 expected

Not that I expected any better than that.

at 1.3110/15 area, price will touch rising trend line support. What happens after that will be the true test of where price will go today. In my humble opinion, taking a long position now is fighting the market sentiment.

Remember Historical points? It is not good here for long. Let the PA calm down if you have not been short from 1.322x.

And that's it for today's econ data.

Next up is 12 month Bubill auction results around 9:30GMT

I'll lean back and do some programming for customer while waiting price to settle down. Auction is small (3B) which should be filled easily, since there is demand for German Bunds, but with what price? EconData caused risk off reaction, which doesn't do good for the yield.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120423163988/

Kno's Comments: This report was written before French PMI and German PMI...

Risk Is Off For Now....

Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Mildly Higher as Risk Recedes on Earnings, China Data and French Election

Risk sentiments are weak as the week starts as Asian equities are weighed down by poor earning reports from Daewoo Engineering & Construction, Tokyo Steel Manufacturing and China Mobile. Also, while the HSBC China manufacturing PMI improved to 49.1 in April, it stayed in contraction region. The news that IMF chief Lagarde secured over $430b funding for its warchest was ignored by investors. Dollar and yen are both mildly higher as risk appetite recedes. Aussie is also additionally hit as PPI unexpectedly dropped in Q1.

IMF Lagarde said that more than $430b funding was secured for IMF, meeting her target of $400b. The final amount from BRICS will be announced at a G20 meeting in Mexico in June while Russia has already said it will commit $10b. In short, the additional funding nearly doubled IMF's current resources of $485b to above $1T. Few points to note is that firstly, US and Canada refused to make the additional contribution. Secondly, US and IMF called for further action from ECB including lowering interest rates, balancing austerity with growth, injecting capital into weak banks and sell Euro bills for deeper fiscal integration. However, ECB President Draghi noted bluntly that "none of the advice that the IMF is offering has been discussed by" monetary policy makers lately. German Finance Minister Schaeuble said "Europeans have met their commitments."

In the first round of France's presidential vote, current president Sarkozy came in second to Socialist hollande. Hollande won 28.5% of vote while Sarkozy won 27.1%. A surprise in the market was that anti0immigrant Le Pen won 18.1% vote, a record for the party. The second round takes place on May 6. Hollande is having a slight upper hand and some analysts are cautious that certain policies that Hollande promotes would create friction with other major countries. A major concern is that Hollande has made himself clear that he will seek to renegotiate the fiscal pact agreed by EU leaders and shift the focus from austerity to growth.


Aussie is so far the weakest currency this week as weighed down by mild risk aversion and weak PPI data. PPI unexpectedly dropped -0.3% in Q1 versus expectation of 0.5% qoq rise. Year-over-year rate also slowed sharply from 2.9% to 1.4% versus consensus of 2.2%. The data confirmed that there is no upstream price pressures in the Australia economy.

Tuesday's CPI data will be closely watched and is expected to show 0.7% qoq rise in Q1. Markets are widely expecting 25bps cut in next week's RBA meeting. Weak CPI data will add to speculation that RBA would either cut 50bps this month, or by another 25bps next month.
Looking ahead, Eurozone PMIs will be the main focus today while Canadian whole sales will be released.

Kno's Comments: With the excitement over and Dow Futures now down 101 and Risk Off what will the North America Equities Markets Do ? Will they BUY Euro or Sell It ? Will USD/JPY stay above 81.00 ?

Where will EUR/JPY go ? Lower than 1.0661 ?

Trade Smart

Follow The Money Flow. It Leads The Charts Always !!!

I am off to sleep for a few hours now. Good Trading All...

That's exactly what I was thinking...So IMO risk off for today...

Charts Are Good To See The Big Picture of where we came from. They do not always show where it will go. It shows support and resistance in different time frames. Thanks for contributing your charts.

Well done... got more from Target

Art of War by Sun Tzu

Good Morning...

Yes... the Great Handbook forever

Good Day to you, Sir... (in my Contry)

Option Expiries today at 14:00GMT

1.2900
1.3100
1.3200

Order board:
EUR/USD: Bids 1.3130/40 sell stops below

Here is the latest EuroStat EuroIndicators report

German auction result: BUBA sold Eur 1.96 bln of new 24 April 2013 Bubills

Written by Joe Brown
April 23, 2012 at 09:34 GMT

Out of a targeted Eur 3 bln. Yield 0.074% (from 0.077%) cover 2.3 (from 1.4)

Not the take up they wanted but better cover and yield. EUR’s shedding a few pips on the release around 1.3145

a great site for economic data is http://tradingeconomics.com/

Great stats but a bit dated.