EurAnalysis

[quote=knoholygrail;5598231]Todays Lesson Is Risk Management. After trading for almost 9 years both demo and real funds since March 9, 2006 and with amounts over $100,000 this Risk Management Method works. Of course if you do NOT have the DISCIPLINE to follow it then do not blame me.

...

Thx for the quite educational post. Ive been "trying" to trade like this for the last 3 months. The hardest part is to keep to the plan!

Just one question, how did you come up with 50pips? Isnt this specific to each currency? I mean a 50pip move in one pair might be the daily average while its just 1/2 for another.

Regards,
Vlad

[quote=vladrac;5598354] It is 50 PIPS for any One Trade regardless of the currency pair that you trade.

Now for the Second Lesson. I would call it getting Good Entry.

I am talking about forex now. I first decide for myself what is the Trend most likely for the next week until Friday April 27, 2012.

For the moment my call is for EUR/USD to be going down. I might change that view in 5 seconds if there are Major NEW Fundamental facts so DECIDE that for yourself. One of those events might come on Wednesday April 25, 2012 at 12:30 PM when the FED make its interest rate decision with a follow up press conference by Ben Bernake at 2:15 PM.

Now since that is my call for now then I look to get Good Entry when I put On a Trade though my Trade Plan. I do not trade to just trade. There needs to be a good reason. You can call it my EDGE !!!

I look at the 15 Minute Charts and the 5 Minute Charts since I rarely hold positions over one day although I might at times using the 50 PIP Risk Management Safe Guard.


I only SHORT at the TOP of the 15 Minute and 5 Minute Bollinger Band also looking a the SAR (Parobolic Sar) That gives me good entry. I also look at where resistance is. I also decide if it is going up because of short covering as it does at certain times in the day.

With my target being 1/2 Percent profit a day on $50,000 US or 250 US a day Profit, you can see that in my First Lesson on Risk Management that if I exited at 1.3275 All Positions would have given me a profit of over $850 US on just One Trade Plan.

The total profit might not have been over $850 since as I lower my original stops it might reverse and I then exit with a smaller profit. It can never harm you to take profits.

The time of day that you trade is also important. I rarely trade before Monday at 2:00 AM when Frankfurt opens. Japan is usually not good to trade on Sunday.

Please continue to ask questions anytime you have one.

thanks for responding.very interesting.u have spread ur position over 75 pips with maximum loss of 5%.say ur first two position is taken out by market and u left with the 3rd position and market reverses and go in ur favour.what will u do.where will u close ur position? or ru u going add more positon to it? it will be 100 pips before u will see any gain.or u say i have 100 pips now and i am breakeven and out of the market?

You can bring me an apple to Class if you want. On a serious note I see that there was a spike up in EUR/USD with the High at 1.32017 and OandafxTrade News (FREE) shows Resistance at 1.3240 April 4, 2012 High.
(61.8) Fibo

I also watch patterns repeating and price action. The more tools that you have in your toolbox the better. I only am missing PipTrapper's HAMMER !!!

I only put on 3 Positions times 50 PIPS = Maximum Loss of $1500 US or 3% on that Trade Plan.

I might add another position however the Odds are better that it NEVER goes above 1.3240 and I might only be closed on my First Position since I get Good Entry as explained in Lesson Two. I take PROFIT by lowering my Stops as I lock in my Profits so Emotion is taken out of equation. Read my explanation again.

Say I got Stopped Out at 1.3231 before it REVERSED at 1.3240 and it goes back to 1.3188 where it is now. As my Second Position at 1.3225 goes into the Green then I lower my STOP from 1.3275 to LOCK in a profit and start to reduce my LOSS of $500 at 1.3231. Let Us say it went down to 1.3188 without taking out my NEW STOP 15 PIPS Minimum in profits and I closed my position at 1.3188 well then I had a Profit of 38 PIPS and my Net Loss on Positions Three and Position One was 12 PIPS and the Second Position that I put on at 1.3206 would be in the money at 1.3188 by 18 PIPS so I am Ahead 6 PIPS while getting Great Range and Entry.

Lesson One Is Only About Risk Management. You can now see more clearly how it works. Is it clearer now ?

Please do not be shy to post your questions here for me. I will do my best to answer your questions. I am just relaxing before the markets get going soon. You only learn by asking questions and getting good information back. I hope I make it clear with my answers. Teaching is still a new vocation for me so I also need to learn how to teach properly. Your feedback helps me to do that.

Thanks...


Kno

I was just checking Oanda fxTrade News EUR/USD Trader at 6:02:02 PM and I see they went Long at 1.3221 at 16:44 PM on April 20, 2012.

Their Stop is at 1.3140 and their Take Profit is at 1.3370

They think EUR/USD is heading towards 1.3400. I really would like to understand that call which is only based on Technicals.

Let's see how this works out for them.

I KNOW one thing as surely as Knoholygrail knows anything and that is if the Dow goes down 200 or more on Monday than EUR/USD will surely test 1.3140 and then 21 Day MA at 1.3128.

I am so glad that I do not trade having to depend on technicals by themselves.

There is More Bad News out there in Europe than Good News.

This is just my point of view and I will stand by it. Their getting into the market ahead of Important Market News also seems strange. I guess that is why only 5% of forex traders make money in this business. The ODDS need to be in your favor and everyone needs some kind of EDGE.

I am off for a few hours now to eat supper and just relax. I am all in cash waiting for a good place to short EUR/USD with my TEST at the 1.3240 Resistance Level.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...ops+to+zero%29

Since there seems a lag in Forex Talk for the moment.

SS Agents and Prostitutes- Another Case of the Worst Rising to the Top

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...S%20hooker.jpgAustrian economist F.A. Hayek’s most famous work, The Road to Serfdom, is renowned for identifying two general rules in regards to politics and the state. As the title of the book suggests, Hayek was keenly aware of the massive centralization of power taking place during the World War II era as Keynesianism took off and planned economies seemed like the next, natural step in the art of governing. He correctly warned that economic intervention begets further intervention which would eventually lead to totalitarianism.

To reinforce this claim, Hayek explained a truth which haunts all those vying for public office. Because the state, by definition, acts as a monopoly of force and predation, those who seek to brandish its authority don’t always have the most charitable intentions in mind as they clearly prefer an occupation of violence over harmonious enterprise in the private sector.

As Hayek writes:
Advancement within a totalitarian group or party depends largely on a willingness to do immoral things. The principle that the end justifies the means, which in individualist ethics is regarded as the denial of all morals, in collectivist ethics becomes necessarily the supreme rule.

While Hayek wrote on the mindset one needs to be successful in implementing the state’s various decrees, this type of behavior often spills over into otherwise unrelated government activities. Such delinquency is fostered by the fact that those who operate within the public sector have little regard for the money and privileges designated to them as it is paid for on the backs of taxpayers and not from their own personal funds. One of these embarrassing (for the ruling class, not those forced to support them) moments came to pass recently in Colombia as a few Secret Service personnel, tasked with preparing a summit venue for a visit by President Obama, were caught both soliciting high end call girls and stiffing them after the deed was done. From the National Post:

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Secret Service said Wednesday that three employees will leave their jobs over the sex scandal in a hotel in Colombia which tarnished the elite presidential protection agency’s image.

A total of 11 agents and at least 10 military personnel are being investigated over the incident, which reportedly came to light when a prostitute got into a dispute over payment with one of the agents.
The New York Times on Wednesday carried an interview with one of the prostitutes, who said that the affair came to light after an agent offered her $30 for sex after earlier agreeing to pay $750.

By virtue of being a gang of thugs in charge of watching out for one of the biggest bullies in the world, the Secret Service’s reputation has long since been tarnished. There is something to be said when the leader of a supposedly free and friendly country must employ brutes to shakedown visiting tourists at his “place of residence” and designate areas as “non free speech” zones on whim.

Rather than a small security force, the Secret Service has evolved, like all executive government agencies inevitably do, into something far more sinister. Not only can it unilaterally revoke the protection of speech guaranteed by the Constitution, but it has proven to be staffed with those inept and feeling entitled enough to waste the public’s dime on seedy shenanigans.

Hayek, while a brilliant mind, was not right on everything. He saw the welfare state is legitimate, a need for regulation into private industries such as education and food, and the necessity of the state in providing for individual and national defense. Yet even he was able to distinguish how political power attracts those who will use in the worst manner.

The Secret Service agents who procured prostitutes may be relieved of their duty but it will only serve as a cautionary tale for the rest to keep their off-duty exploits better concealed in the future. The waste and graft will go on despite a pledge from Obama for a “rigorous” probe and his potential successor’s promise to “clean house.” These promises are just political theater used to conceal the playground like mentality which possesses the attitudes of all those who wield the guns of the state.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...er-europe.html

Snippet:

Three months after waving her purse in front of global finance chiefs, Christine Lagarde filled it up with more than $430 billion in pledges for the International Monetary Fund. She may not enjoy her victory for long.
The lender’s spring meetings ended yesterday in Washington with the doubling of its war chest and a number of sores exposed among its 188 members. Managing Director Lagarde fell short of her original $600 billion goal as the U.S. refused to chip in, while Canada proposed making it harder for Europe to tap aid. Big emerging markets demanded more power at the IMF before writing checks.

The tensions leave Lagarde pushing her home continent to justify the show of solidarity with greater crisis-fighting just as Spain’s interest rates soar and Dutch austerity talks flop. If Europe resists, she could find it harder to rally support for sending it more money or face criticism for bailing out undeserving governments.

“Any further lending to euro zone economies is likely to be under even greater scrutiny from the IMF’s other members,” said Eswar Prasad, a former IMF official now at the Brookings Institution in Washington. “Lagarde faces a difficult balancing act.”
Italy, Spain

Concern that Italy and Spain are slowing down in cutting budgets and overhauling their economies reignited the turmoil, which prompted Lagarde’s drive to ensure the IMF is able to protect troubled countries and global growth. Spain’s notes last week extended their longest decline since 2007 and Italian bonds rose for a sixth week.
“I need to have the umbrella in case the clouds break into a nasty rain,” Lagarde told Bloomberg Television.

A former French finance minister, the 56-year old lawyer was hinting at a need for larger coffers within a month of joining the IMF in July. After being rebuffed by the Group of 20 nations in November amid irritation Europe wasn’t doing enough itself, she resumed her push in January.
She traveled to large emerging markets and told the World Economic Forum in Switzerland that she had brought her “little bag to actually collect a bit of money.” The omens weren’t good as the U.S., the IMF’s biggest shareholder, balked on the grounds the lender and Europe had enough resources and because congressional approval would be impossible in an election year.

Snippet:

The G-20 aimed for implementation of the reforms by an October meeting in Tokyo and agreed votes “should better reflect the relative weights of IMF members in the world economy.” Change may still not come that fast given the U.S.’s November election.

“Enticing emerging market support by offering governance reform is getting to be an old joke, and is tricky to achieve in the IMF,” said Daniel Heath, a former U.S. alternate director on the IMF board. Such promises could “risk Lagarde’s future effectiveness,” he said.
Voting Revamp

Canada also wants a voting revamp. At present, the IMF’s 24-member Executive Board is dominated by European accents, causing Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to suggest a conflict of interest given 80 percent of the fund’s credits will be located in the euro area by 2014.

He wants future loans to Europe to be voted on twice, first by euro-zone members and then by the rest. He also wants the IMF to take more control of aid programs rather than monitor them alongside European authorities through the so-called troika.

Seeking to deflect criticism and maintain flexibility should more economies need her assistance, Lagarde pressed Europe not to relax its own rescue efforts. She stressed the IMF’s money won’t be earmarked for any economy and that future loans will come with tough conditions.

The IMF’s advice for Europe includes lower interest rates from the European Central Bank, austerity balanced with measures to improve growth, having rescue funds inject capital into weak banks such as Spain’s and selling euro bills to deepen fiscal integration.
ECB Hasn’t Discussed

ECB President Mario Draghi nevertheless said in Washington that “none of the advice that the IMF is offering has been discussed by” monetary policy makers lately. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Europe’s $1 trillion shield showed “the Europeans have met their commitments.”

There is also the risk that indebted countries backpedal on reforms if they think there is a stronger safety net, said Kirkegaard. Italy and Spain have yet to fully deliver their policy promises, while Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte faces the likelihood of early elections after deficit talks led his minority government to splinter. France’s presidential election is going to a May 6 run-off.

“Incentives -- especially political -- are critical,” said Kirkegaard.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...g_Picture.html

John Hathaway - 8 Key Charts, Gold, Fed & The Big Picture





With gold near the $1,650 level, King World News was given exclusive distribution rights to this outstanding piece which has eight excellent graphs, by superstar John Hathaway of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.. John is without question one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today regarding gold, and his fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating by Morningstar.







By John Hathaway, Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.

April 22 (King World News)



In our view, monetary policy has been boxed in by previous actions, election year politics (and even more broadly by the dynamics of the contemporary state of democracy), and the slowdown in global forex accumulation. The result, we expect, will be a continuation of financial repression under the most optimistic of scenarios. At the very least, returns on liquid capital could remain negative for many years to come. Under such circumstances, demand for the protection offered by gold should remain strong. Should the presumed economic recovery falter, we anticipate that the calls for renewed QE will be deafening.




http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...0Fig.%2019.jpg





http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...0Fig.%2021.jpg





http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...20%26%2028.jpg



John Hathaway

Portfolio Manager and Senior Managing Director

Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.

April 22, 2012



This article reflects the views of the author as of the date or dates cited and may change at any time. The information should not be construed as investment advice. No representation is made

concerning the accuracy of cited data, nor is there any guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion will be realized.



References to stocks, securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may

be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or by principals, employees and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future

position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville. We will periodically reprint charts or quote extensively from articles published by other sources. When we do, we will provide

appropriate source information. The quotes and material that we reproduce are selected because, in our view, they provide an interesting, provocative or enlightening perspective on current

events. Their reproduction in no way implies that we endorse any part of the material or investment recommendations published on those sites.



Be sure to listen to this week’s incredible line-up of KWN audio interviews, which include Art Cashin, John Hathaway, Stephen Leeb, MEP Nigel Farage, Gerald Celente and Jim Sinclair. You can listen to these outstanding interviews by CLICKING HERE.



The KWN John Hathaway audio interview is available now and you can listen to it by CLICKING HERE.

CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. Debt Greater Than Eurozone and U.K. Combined






Posted by Wealth Wire - Thursday, April 19th, 2012


http://www.weeklystandard.com/sites/...om-640x465.png
This visual says it all.
With America's debt currently at $15.1 trillion and rising, it's not a pretty picture.

The worst part is that the the Eurozone and the U.K combined – when taking more than six nations into consideration – is still in debt by 2.4 trillion less than the United States is!

If we don't clean up our act and make immediate changes, we may face Greece's fate sooner than we think...

http://www.wealthwire.com/news/economy/3036?r=1

Bonus Coverage...

http://www.wealthwire.com/report/why...-beat-gold/626

And unlike gold, there is little in the way of available above ground silver inventory.
The COMEX reports roughly 120 million ounces of silver in inventory. But most of this is already accounted for by those who hold a warehouse receipt.

All this becomes a real problem when you consider that ownership of physical silver is practically becoming a religion in China.
In the past 16 months, China has gone from a net exporter of ~100 million ounces of silver to a net importer of ~150 million ounces of silver. This essentially means that ~250 million of silver is no longer available to the market on an annual basis.
The Chinese government is teaching their citizens the ownership of silver is an antidote to a devaluing U.S. dollar.

And they're right.

This has massive implications for the silver market when you consider the 1.3 billion people who live there are rapidly becoming more interested in buying physical bullion... and will continue to do for quite some time in increasing amounts.

The price of silver is now within striking distance of re-testing record highs as the metal continues to react to rising global demand and rapidly diminishing supplies.

As I mentioned, I expect to see the price of silver top $50 this year. In respect to this, I continue to urge speculators to buy physical silver while it's still easily available to the retail market.

Investments in physical silver — as well as quality silver stocks — will perform very well in the coming months and year.
Thanks for subscribing. Stay tuned for daily updates on precious metals, oil, stocks, and bonds.


You can download the PDF version here: Why Silver will Always Beat Gold



Why Silver will Always Beat Gold

The Gold-Silver Ratio

If you average out the price ratio between gold and silver (how many ounces of silver an ounce of gold will buy) throughout history, you land on a single magical proportion: 16 to 1. This chart is slightly outdated, but gets the point across nicely.
http://images.angelpub.com/2010/27/5209/wd_img1.png
And even experts who do not subscribe to fixed pricing relationships generally agree that a price ratio of 20 to 1 should be considered normal.

What is not normal is the current ratio of — wait for it — 33 to 1!
If demand keeps rising, the ratio could eventually drop

http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/info/current-time/

can you post last your trades ?
what rules for increase the probability of success in an trade ?

Thanks... Good stuff.

I appreciate the advice.

P.O.P.

Do you still feel horny in this ages sir ?



and



am kidding but am curious also

This is what I got on my EU chart. PA is within the blue zone and a breakout up out of this zone could see 1.3280 zone,then 1.3355 zone and then 1.3480 zone. I am bearish on EU long term but the chart tells a different story.

Net short on EU is high so this would be a nice bear squeeze. Lets see how it plays out.

Good morning everyone.

In less than 90 minutes, we will get the first PMI data release from Europe which this time is from France. Both Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released.
30 minutes after that, we get the same thing from Germany and following that we get it again for the whole Euro Zone.

Last month did not go too well and the Euro plunged 120pips. Let's see what happens this month.

All times are GMT+2

Not much for today:

GMT
09:30EURGermany : 3.0 Billion 12 Month Bubill
10:00-Belgium OLO auction cancelled
15:30USDUS 3 & & Month

Other Events:

EU Foreign Ministers Meet in Luxembourg.
Beginning in a morning. We may hear some news during the day, though nothing ground (or price) moving.

ECB's Weidmann Speaks in New York
He is member of ECB Board, though his speeches don't tend to move price unless there is some leaks, which I doubt.

I guess it's all about PMI today then.

German PMI is probably Green, French is a question. If all green we may jump even to 1.325. Over all we should dive a little today.