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Extreme TMA System

  • #9,621
  • Apr 21, 2012 5:47am Apr 21, 2012 5:47am
Quoting Connected
Quiet in here today!

I was reading a pdf article on Pyschology, in particular the emotion of Fear in trading, I found on another thread and thought it is quite an interesting read. Its in .pdf format here
Nice work, Connected. Thanks for the article.
  • #9,622
  • Apr 21, 2012 6:03am Apr 21, 2012 6:03am
Quoting flaw
Hello Mike, I almost missed your post. I see you don't like the semafor indicator. The repainting bothers me too. I'm still looking for better confirmation for entry. But I found it does help to exit with more pips. What's your advice? Do you think it's possible to refine the entries? Frank
Frank, earlier in the thread Al explained that for the better entries we're supposed to watch Heiken Ashi's color change. The system changed in these two months, but in my modification I still enter with Heiken Ashi's color change, and there is just no comparison between Heiken Ashi and semafor both for the entries and for the exits IMHO.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #9,623
  • Apr 21, 2012 6:38am Apr 21, 2012 6:38am
http://www.hostmypic.net/pictures/52...b09d69f32f.jpg
Last Update: Apr 21, 2012 18:20 GMT+0700
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,624
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:01am Apr 21, 2012 7:01am
Quoting Connected
http://www.hostmypic.net/pictures/52...b09d69f32f.jpg
Last Update: Apr 21, 2012 18:20 GMT+0700

I'm wondering.....Should we consider these ratios as "smart money" and follow their lead, or should we look at this data as a contrarian indicator, i.e. if a very high percentage of positions are short, then we should look for longs? I, for one, would see a very high ratio as a contrarian indicator. If everybody is selling, then who is left to sell more?
  • #9,625
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:26am Apr 21, 2012 7:26am
Quoting Favorite
Frank, earlier in the thread Al explained that for the better entries we're supposed to watch Heiken Ashi's color change. The system changed in these two months, but in my modification I still enter with Heiken Ashi's color change, and there is just no comparison between Heiken Ashi and semafor both for the entries and for the exits IMHO.
Mike, Thank you for your reply. I may have missed something obvious. I'm going to backtest and forward test both of them more. Frank
Wishing my last name were LESS
  • #9,626
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:47am Apr 21, 2012 7:47am
Quoting frollollc
I'm wondering.....Should we consider these ratios as "smart money" and follow their lead, or should we look at this data as a contrarian indicator, i.e. if a very high percentage of positions are short, then we should look for longs? I, for one, would see a very high ratio as a contrarian indicator. If everybody is selling, then who is left to sell more?
These graphs just show a summary of open positions held by OANDA clients, is not a forecast... so if everybody is selling price will go down...
maybe i'm wrong...
  • #9,627
  • Apr 21, 2012 7:54am Apr 21, 2012 7:54am
Quoting MMGood47
I have a little advantage in answering that question as I am in South Carolina, just a few hours away from Calabash, so the story is familiar.

By the way, Calabash is home to some of the best seafood I've ever had. Of course I can't say the best anywhere but I can say in the US, I have been to the 4 corners of this great country. Hopefully someday I will be able to visit Spain and drop in on Al. I need to add to my bucket list
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Hi, MMGood47 :

if TMA can turn my misery FX to positive, count me in to visit Spain, and listing it to my bucket list too ~~

Best wishes,

SCOTT-ibm / Taiwan

~~~~~~~~~
  • #9,628
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:00am Apr 21, 2012 8:00am
Quoting flaw
Mike, Thank you for your reply. I may have missed something obvious. I'm going to backtest and forward test both of them more. Frank
Frank,first of all Semafor gives You main direction to trade(sett.204 ,or more),
You can see swings and, as a result,add positions or partly exit(sett. 7, 28,34).
As to enter-the best way is to follow the rules.
Best Regards
  • #9,629
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:37am Apr 21, 2012 8:37am
Glad you enjoyed it is was quite good, I like the Samurai intro

Quoting onlyghost
Nice work, Connected. Thanks for the article.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,630
  • Edited 9:12am Apr 21, 2012 8:41am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting harry45
Frank,first of all Semafor gives You main direction to trade(sett.204 ,or more),
You can see swings and, as a result,add positions or partly exit(sett. 7, 28,34).
For the main direction we have MTF TMA, don't we? Just put TMA M15, TMA H1 and TMA H4 on the same M15 chart and you really see the main direction. In the first post Al says: "Having 3 TMAs on one chart is extremely helpful for determining longer time frame trends and combined, they have high predictive value of future market moves."

And for the partly exits we have TMA's center line. And for the exits we have the upper/lower TMA's borders.

As to adding positions - I would like to hear Al's opinion: is it really a smart thing to do with this system? And, of course, we can add just looking at THV4TzPivotsD(Black) and Heiken Ashi.

What I'm trying to say: when we have such powerful tools as TMA, THV4TzPivotsD(Black) and Heiken Ashi, this semafor becomes just a distraction, it misinforms us, misleads us and makes our template to look like a Xmas tree.

Guys, don't we have more than enough indicators already? Do we really need one more?
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #9,631
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:42am Apr 21, 2012 8:42am
Quoting flaw
Mike, Thank you for your reply. I may have missed something obvious. I'm going to backtest and forward test both of them more. Frank
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #9,632
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:42am Apr 21, 2012 8:42am
Quoting Favorite
makes our template to look like a Xmas tree.
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,633
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:44am Apr 21, 2012 8:44am
.....Waiting for Monday



Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,634
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:48am Apr 21, 2012 8:48am
Quoting frollollc
I'm wondering.....Should we consider these ratios as "smart money" and follow their lead, or should we look at this data as a contrarian indicator, i.e. if a very high percentage of positions are short, then we should look for longs? I, for one, would see a very high ratio as a contrarian indicator. If everybody is selling, then who is left to sell more?


Seems contrarian to me...........but at extremes the Long/ Short Ratio would seem to be "smart money"
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4-21-2012 EURUSD Long-Short Ratio.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4-21-2012 EURUSD Price chart.png Size: 40 KB
  • #9,635
  • Apr 21, 2012 8:55am Apr 21, 2012 8:55am
...interesting analysis frollollc, makes sense be great if Al could possibly comment on these too

Quoting frollollc
Seems contrarian to me...........so at extremes it would seem to be "smart money"
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,636
  • Apr 21, 2012 9:09am Apr 21, 2012 9:09am
Quoting frollollc
Seems contrarian to me...........but at extremes the Long/ Short Ratio would seem to be "smart money"
Another thought .......Long Ratio is near its recent low extremes, but price hasn't even retraced 50% during the same time period. Does this represent a significant divergence? And if so, shouldn't we be expecting lower prices from here, especially if the long ratio starts rising? Hmmmmm......
  • #9,637
  • Apr 21, 2012 9:10am Apr 21, 2012 9:10am
if you backtest the Extreme TMA can the pivot points be calculated/shown with historical data? How can that work? Confused
Tracking the Specialists.
  • #9,638
  • Apr 21, 2012 9:44am Apr 21, 2012 9:44am
Quoting Connected
if you backtest the Extreme TMA can the pivot points be calculated/shown with historical data? How can that work? Confused
Connected I do have a historical pivot and mid pivot plotter that goes back as many days as you tell it to. It displays standard pivots not fib pivots and the levels are not labeled but they are color coded if you want it I'd be happy to post it for you and explain my color coding. Also when back testing I use the non repainting TMA.

Robert
  • #9,639
  • Apr 21, 2012 9:55am Apr 21, 2012 9:55am
Quoting Surfnomad
Connected I do have a historical pivot and mid pivot plotter that goes back as many days as you tell it to. It displays standard pivots not fib pivots and the levels are not labeled but they are color coded if you want it I'd be happy to post it for you and explain my color coding. Also when back testing I use the non repainting TMA.

Robert
~~~~~~~~~
Dear Robert :

non repainting TMA ?, can we get the non repainting TMA ??

where can I get this non repainting TMA ??

please ~

SCOTT-ibm
~~~~~~~~
  • #9,640
  • Apr 21, 2012 10:14am Apr 21, 2012 10:14am
Hello Scott-IBM,

See post # 5296

Bunker
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