EurAnalysis

because friday always act irrational than us think logically

I cant see well on EU at Daily
But Daily PoundDollar might be a hint as it keep going to the target

This post is about human nature. I want you to know that my comments about hairy armpits was more about teasing than anything although I do prefer clean shaven woman. As for my copy and paste I do understand your thoughts on that. One thing that I do that I sometimes feel uncomfortable about is posting too much of the article rather than the link. I do that because I do edit and try to include only the important parts to inform properly.

Your views on feelings and behaviour I agree with. No person INCLUDING ME likes to have people complain especially if they do not agree on the issue.

You are correct in saying it is not all that important in the bigger picture.

To set the record straight I like you and respect you and appreciate your technical skills. We have a small language issue which is normal since my language is English.

Please understand that there is no intent to cause harm and one day we will meet G-D willing. Take care and be well.


Your Friend


Kno

No worried Sir
You know me and I know you
I am a bastard,,,So no Worried and Keep Posting

Bearish Butterfly

http://chartingwallstreet.com/wp-con...butterfly1.png

You're my favorite bastard

This has nothing to do with fundamentals or technicals. It has everything to do with common sense and trading experience and observations and mainly normal behaviour of the masses.

At 3:00 AM the price of EUR/USD is at 1.3140 and we head into news from Europe. We head towards 6:00 AM when the North American Retail Effect starts to work. There was positive news out of Germany.
AT 4:00 AM EUR/USD was near 1.3180 on positive perceptions and retail traders were going long.

By 5:00 AM the postive wore off and we saw 1.3147 and now we head towards 6:00 AM and we see it at 1.3170 and as we have more traders wake up they see what is going on. At 6:40 AM EUR/USD is at the HIGH at 1.32071 aND NOW MANY SHORTS GET COVERED. That causes the POP.

If it were to GO OVER 1.3200 and stay there than maybe there is a real change.

Now I start to look at my normal money flow factors such as Risk On or Risk Off and the price of Gold and Oil and the Dow Futures and US Bond Yields.

We have PERCEPTION working at this time plus technical traders and some fundamental ones. I NOW watch Price Action and look at changing values on EUR/JPY and USD/JPY and ADD in a Friday to the mix.

There is good money to make everyday if you know and understand the North American Retail Effect.

Take Care and Trade Well. I need to go to the dentist soon to clean my teeth. This is a GREAT Thread and PipTrapper is a GREAT Leader.

http://www.fxpro.com/news/daily-fore...ce=Emailvision

More trouble and strife

20/04/12 @ 07:00 GMT by Michael Derks, Chief Strategist

http://www.fxpro.com/sites/default/f...perf%2024h.png
Yesterday’s bond auctions might have gone well enough, but unfortunately other issues are brewing in Europe and moreover they are getting progressively worse. In Italy, as the economy reverses more rapidly than expected, the fiscal dynamics look increasingly problematic. Unsurprisingly, the IT/GER 10yr spread widened another 15bp to almost 400bp. Spain is in the doghouse as well, for similar reasons, with the 10yr yield not far short of 6.0% again. Also worth noting is the continued underperformance in France – the 10yr FR/GER yield spread was 15bp wider at 140bp at one point, compared with 100bp just a month back. Part of the explanation lies in the increasing likelihood that François Hollande will become France’s next President. Hollande has been threatening to renegotiate the fiscal compact if elected (little wonder Merkel wanted to campaign for Sarkozy), and he has vowed to raise the minimum wage; he also wants the ECB to be more active in resolving Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. Not to be outdone, New Democracy Party leader Samaras has pledged to push back implementation of the Greek bank recapitalisation plan until at least after the election. Just as well some of Europe’s finance ministers are gathered together in Washington – they might as well start discussing how to deal with Europe’s next financial tsunami. As the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report made clear, European faces a huge credit crunch over the next 18 months as banks shed USD 2.6trln of assets. Strap yourself in, there is worse to come!
Commentary

Monti’s huge fiscal challenge. Quite apart from the extraordinary opposition Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti faces gaining acceptance for his labour market reforms, it is becoming rapidly apparent that he will soon face fresh challenges on the fiscal front as well. On Tuesday, the Italian government lifted its deficit/GDP target for 2012 just slightly, to 1.7% from 1.6% previously. Also, the debt/GDP target for 2012 was raised to 123.4%, from 119.5%. These new projections from Monti’s government reflect the worse than expected deficit outcome for the March quarter. Indeed, looking at these figures more closely, achieving the new (higher) deficit targets this year will be a huge challenge. The major reason for the fiscal slippage is that the economy is not even doing as well as previously forecast. Industrial orders for the year ended February collapsed by more than 13% whilst construction spending plunged by 20% over the same period. Italy’s government expects the economy to contract by 1.2% this year, more than twice its previous estimate. Unemployment is heading inexorably higher, with the IMF expecting that it could reach 9.9% this year. Back in June 2011 the figure was 8.2%. Yesterday, Monti confessed that achievement of a balanced budget would need to be pushed back by a year to 2014. Later on the IMF suggested that even this was too optimistic – it expects Italy may take another five years to balance its budget. As such, there is plenty of potential for bond investors to become concerned about the state of Italy’s finances over coming months.

Cheers

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=30403

Snippet:

OK AaronWard



The Goldman Sachs coup that failed in America has nearly succeeded in Europe—a permanent, irrevocable, unchallengeable bailout for the banks underwritten by the taxpayers.
In September 2008, Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, managed to extort a $700 billion bank bailout from Congress. But to pull it off, he had to fall on his knees and threaten the collapse of the entire global financial system and the imposition of martial law; and the bailout was a one-time affair. Paulson’s plea for a permanent bailout fund—the Troubled Asset Relief Program or TARP—was opposed by Congress and ultimately rejected.
By December 2011, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, former vice president of Goldman Sachs Europe, was able to approve a 500 billion Euro bailout for European banks without asking anyone’s permission. And in January 2012, a permanent rescue funding program called the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) was passed in the dead of night with barely even a mention in the press. The ESM imposes an open-ended debt on EU member governments, putting taxpayers on the hook for whatever the ESM’s Eurocrat overseers demand.

The bankers’ coup has triumphed in Europe seemingly without a fight. The ESM is cheered by Eurozone governments, their creditors, and “the market” alike, because it means investors will keep buying sovereign debt. All is sacrificed to the demands of the creditors, because where else can the money be had to float the crippling debts of the Eurozone governments?
There is another alternative to debt slavery to the banks. But first, a closer look at the nefarious underbelly of the ESM and Goldman’s silent takeover of the ECB . . . .
The Dark Side of the ESM
The ESM is a permanent rescue facility slated to replace the temporary European Financial Stability Facility and European Financial Stabilization Mechanism as soon as Member States representing 90% of the capital commitments have ratified it, something that is expected to happen in July 2012. A December 2011 youtube video titled “The shocking truth of the pending EU collapse!”, originally posted in German, gives such a revealing look at the ESM that it is worth quoting here at length. It states:

The EU is planning a new treaty called the European Stability Mechanism, or ESM: a treaty of debt. . . . The authorized capital stock shall be 700 billion euros. Question: why 700 billion? [Probable answer: it simply mimicked the $700 billion the U.S. Congress bought into in 2008.] . . . .

http://www.avafx.com/pages/DowJons/s...FBQUFBQUFBQUFB

WORLD FOREX: Data Lifts Pound To Five-Month High Against Dollar

Posted on 20 April 2012 7:36 | Dow Jones Newswires
-- Sterling rallies after retail sales data to hit fresh five-month high
-- Better-than-expected German business sentiment underpins euro
-- But Spanish 10-year bond yields remain close to 6%
-- Traders wary ahead of first round of French presidential election Sunday
By Jessica Mead Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Sterling was the standout performer in European trading Friday, hitting a five-month high against the dollar after strong U.K. March retail sales numbers, although the euro also firmed, aided by strong German economic data and calmer conditions on euro-zone bond markets.

Warm weather and panic-buying of petrol in the U.K. ahead of a potential strike by tanker drivers last month boosted the volume of retail sales by 1.8% compared with February--the biggest monthly increase since January 2011. That pushed the pound to as high as $1.6117 against the dollar.

Sterling settled back to trade around $1.61 for the rest of the session and held close to its strongest level in almost 20 months against the euro.
Expectations are building that the pound will continue to do well. Some traders are now eyeing sterling's $1.6167 high struck Oct. 31, while others expect the euro to move toward GBP0.80 against the pound.

"We think the pound will appreciate in a modest manner in the coming weeks and months as inflation falls and U.K. real yields increase," said Peter Kinsella, senior currency strategist at Commerzbank in London.
Kinsella said he preferred buying sterling against the euro and yen rather than against the buck, since this pair remained vulnerable to moves in the euro against the dollar, which was also supported by economic data Friday.

German business confidence unexpectedly increased for the sixth month running in April, with the Ifo Institute's headline index rising to 109.9 from 109.8 in March.

The euro climbed to a peak of $1.3206, its highest level since April 8, but the underlying tone remained fragile, even as Spanish government bond yields settled down after a jumpy start to the day while European stocks rose.

The mood on the euro is still very downbeat, said Daragh Maher, senior currency strategist at HSBC in London, citing lingering concerns over Spain's economic health and the first round of France's presidential election Sunday.

While there is still the risk of an upset, expectations are for incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande to face a second round of voting May 6.

"After the first round, we should get a little bit more clarity about what we can expect after the president is elected," said Maher, adding that we should see more of a fight for the political center ground rather than the posturing we have had so far.

There's little data coming up in the session ahead with just Canadian March inflation data at 1230 GMT. Expectations are for the inflation rate to fall to 1.9% from 2.3% in February.

At 1023 GMT, the euro was trading at $1.3183 against the dollar, compared with $1.3138 late Thursday in New York, according to trading system EBS. The dollar was at Y82.57 against the yen, compared with Y81.76, while the euro was at Y107.78 compared with Y107.20.

Meanwhile, the pound was trading at $1.6105 against the dollar, compared with $1.6050 late Thursday in New York.

The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, was at 79.345 compared with 79.559 late Thursday in New York.

A summary of key levels for chart-watching technical strategists is below:

Any thoughts on whether the French first round of elections might spark a bit of a sell off (now that we are perched up high)?

Some of the candidates seem a little extreme.

The recent upswing is all based on priced in expectations which are yet to materialize and are as follows:

1. IMF purse boosted by 550 billion
2. Troika willing to fund Spain and/or Portugal if needed
3. ECB restarting the SMP program to buy periphery bonds on the secondary market.
4. Fed ready to embark on another round of QE or QE Lite

If one or more of the above come into the least bit of doubt or if something fishy comes out of the French and Greek elections, expect a panic sell-off to the bottom of the range.

When is the core cpi release ? market seems bull-monopoly not liking much after all friday is fun day? when the fun is starting

Canadian CPI was released at 12:30 GMT which came in pretty much as expected and had no noticeable effect on the market.

Yes Friday is usually fun day but since the bears are not getting their way and the bulls are proceeding very very cautiously, fun has been temporarily suspended

From a fun-damental perspective, if NY does not start off aggressively bullish today, I expect to see some profit taking before Europe closes.

Right. It's hard to argue with the pretty strong buying all week, I guess I'm looking for reasons for profit taking today that might not be there.

Not to worry if it's quiet, I'm done for the week. 3 buy attempts, one hit S/L one stopped at B/E, one hit T/P

US session don't seem to be very aggressive yet... There is more shorties open than longies on market which might predict price to go little down before weekend... unless some crazy lemmings start frenzy friday buying.

Sorry, all my Teddy pals, but I'm afraid we have to let bulls in at next week....

will this move eur? or already priced in? any thought?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8FJCDD20120419