Sonic R. System

Hi Master,

I really like your system and comments, in return I'd like to present you my little friend Mr.Dollar index
I guess he wants to tell us that he is going down with that little 50 200 sma cross down on 4h chart !!! What do you think ?

Okanemici, I know you addressed Master Sonicdeejay with this so I'll apologize in advance if you feel that by my responding I am overstepping boundaries.

There is something about moving average lines we need always keep in mind. The are lagging indicators. And the higher the number, the more they lag the actual PA they are derived from. And there is something we need always keep in mind about indexes. They show the strength of something vs something else. The dollar index shows the strength of the USD vs a composite makeup of some other currencies. The point here is that if the USD shows weakness against this composite and that weakness is primarily due to the relative standing of the USD with another currency in the composite which represents a higher percentage of the composite than most of the other currencies, then if the USD suddenly strengthens against that one currency it will sooner have a more noticeable effect on the index than otherwise.

Back to the MAs, for three days the USD index has been ranging, while all that time the 50 MA for the USD index has been falling. The falling 50 MA has not yet "caught up" to the fact that the actual strength of the USD Index has stopped falling and is now ranging. Therefore, if the USD (not the index) suddenly becomes stronger against EU (a high % pair in the composite for the USD Index) the USD Index could shoot up out of the range. And, for a short bit of time, the 50 MA for the USD Index might continue to fall! But, under these conditions, it will fall at less angle and soon go flat and eventually start to rise again. And by this time the USD Index could be considerable higher, and so too could EU be considerably lower!

Should this happen, your 50 MA crossing down of the 200 MA will be short lived. And the USD Index will be rising while that is happening.

Another thing should be considered, too. That is the fact that the value of the USD vs EURO is a highly manipulated value, not at all based on the real, or true, value of each of the two currencies. This high manipulation is of necessity to keep the world's finances from imploding, but it nevertheless has boundaries within which the big market players can push the price around in order to make daily, weekly, monthly profit goals without upsetting the "apple cart" and causing central banks to step in and intervene. And since price manipulation for profit, not MAs, is the No.1 fundamental in the forex marketplace, it is more appropriate to keep our eyes focused on PA rather than to make assumptions based on lagging MAs.

The conclusion, the point of all of this, is that PA and not MAs are the "real juice", the "driver at the wheel". The MAs are always playing a "catch up" game with PA. And sometimes what looks like a nice cross, i.e., the 50 MA crossing an even slower 200 MA, can happen while that which they are derived from (PA) has already started going in the opposite direction!

Personally, I'd not be surprised if this actually happens.

-tah

Friday = Chill...with no bias...

I had 2 longs this week..

First one Tp1, closed at profit by moving SL upward..
Second closed at minimal profit pips..

Will we see big Friday move like last week??
I think so..
Let t mkt decides..

Sonic

my April Moop

Master, I think so too. Just look at this snippet of PA vs Volume. High activity drove the price a bit lower. Then, on the next/current bar, the price is promptly manipulated back up all the way on much less volume!

This is a classic example of price manipulation. And in this case it is most likely caused by BBs heavily shorting. That caused the price to drop. But they "bought it up" promptly using much less capital (small sequential buys at higher and higher prices) just to get the price back up for more heavy volume shorting.

We'll see. This is just the asian session beginning to get active, but it could be the format for the day, up until a breakout.

Edit: Point proved! See, the BBs "bought up" the price on low size orders, only to get it high again to resume heavy shorting! I'm Bearish!

Well it is look nice. But dun forget that MA is repaint. It means it is good on history only. In real trading it is hard to see. But Sonic R is something else even it is use MA but the rules is good to minimalism its fake signal

Hi TAh,

Thanks a lot for the new sonic template.
This is awesome.

*dont follow still on learn

i think its late but..

long eur

Ahhh, you bought at resistance, I would of done the opposite

(thats my opinion anyway, it is no way right or wrong....)

yes , right

cost -17pips

Always be on the lookout for S/R before making an entry as you can see from the below screenshot. The price stalled right at resistance.

I use an indy called Fibonacci Pivots THV (as you can see the long dotted lines on the chart abbreviated Resistance 1, Support 1 etc, they change daily) along with a Sonic R template. I've got many lines on my chart of hard S/R and usually counter trend here while trading SonicR setups.

I don´t know may it works ...



emc2

p.s. don´t forget - today is g20 party ... it seems to be someone is waiting ...

High impact EUR news @ 9am GMT today.... T-minus 30 minutes.....

Late to long. Early for a short..
Possible resistance vol spotted..

Sonic

I've just missed a good short on USDCAD and long EU... dame.

USDCAD:

Entered short (EP 0,99374)

1st entry was hit tp 20 pips
this is the 2nd entry, stop loss already at BE

Well, I agree that ma is lagging and price could turn up suddenly, which was one probability, but what I told was the other probability.I just stated that important cross is about to happen and be carefull ,which actually happened, driving usd index lower, eu to higher, and gu shooting to even more highs.
Moreover, yen index is weakening , ej going higher stating that risk is on.

In conclusion, long eu seemed a better option instead of shorting it or waiting for a time to short it.With the cross and even the price action I think the moves in eu is so bullish.
If the usd ındex keeps going down like that you might have a big surprise professor Tah

If break 1.3225 I'm going more long in eu.