as i said, there is no trend or consolidation. the fact is people should stay out of the market for now, as it is not behaving based on technical, or fundamental, or correlations. this is only for people who are caught in a position, or who are itching on a trade.
- #628,782
- Apr 19, 2012 9:48am Apr 19, 2012 9:48am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2011 | 2,124 Posts
fokyou forexfactory
- #628,785
- Apr 19, 2012 9:50am Apr 19, 2012 9:50am
- | Joined Jan 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,012 Posts
Simples.
How many muppets shorted this earlier not willing to wait for a confirmation??????
- #628,789
- Apr 19, 2012 9:52am Apr 19, 2012 9:52am
- | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,553 Posts
More on my Blog...
- #628,790
- Apr 19, 2012 9:52am Apr 19, 2012 9:52am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,013 Posts
works for me - every1 has his own style of trading - i wish i could c PA with candlesticks only - way to go...
- #628,791
- Apr 19, 2012 9:52am Apr 19, 2012 9:52am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,013 Posts
e/u S 3145 sl 3175 tp 3065
- #628,792
- Apr 19, 2012 9:52am Apr 19, 2012 9:52am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Trader | 15,211 Posts
Here's a billion dollar question...what do you understand by confirmation?
A test, a fake, a retest, a break, a close, momentum in the right direction, and you got a runner, that's how ranges are played.
Look at each and everyone I did today, you look for HL.HH's, you look for a test, you look for the rejection, you look for a retest, you look for the HH, you let it break the top, you anticipate the HH, you look for the top to go on momentum or to be retested as confirmation and you got a runner.
Range/breakout play is pretty simple and hasn't really changed in over 100 years.
Just watch how 3148 is being played here, identical to the 3105-3098 from earlier, different then the 3074-3092, because that was a reversal pattern, if it starts looking right the 3074-3092 and you get a LH, with failed tests of the tops, you could either get a further consolidation, and you need a confirmation of that, or you could see a reversal. None of those are present here, she is still eyeballing to break that 3148
- #628,795
- Apr 19, 2012 9:55am Apr 19, 2012 9:55am
- Joined Nov 2011 | Status: That olī grumpy bastard... | 3,235 Posts
we exchanged a few thoughts re EUR/CHF last week ......wondering with your comment about repatriation if you think the 1.20 holds once repatriation is done (whenever that occurs)?
I am still holding my EUR/CHF long, so I hope it will play out as planned, the RR is still too good to miss such trade, but the argumentation remains pretty much the same. However, if you check the recent PA, floor is being pushed heavily, we are only couple pips away, guys in SNB must be biting their nails...
9 yards they placed there is certainly not enough to keep the floor, there will be just too much pressure on this level whenever uncertainties around Europe grow (and we will have that a lot in near future with Spain biting the dust, their auction today was just mediocre, deadly bond levels ahead...) and PA is too close for comfort.
My personal opinion is that big money will try to provoke SNB into action by constantly pushing price down (do you recall commentary from Goldmans recently about raising the floor?) and that their new boss will sooner or later want to demonstrate some muscles, cause only keeping the floor shows rather weakness.
My personal tip is still raising the floor to 1.24-25 level.
As for repatriation, we had french and spanish banks liquidating their USD assets this week, before respective auctions, itīs the same sh_t all over again, last time it was Oct 2011 I think, the same story...No clue when itīs gonna happen but when it does, weīre gonna dig deep and SNB will have hands full to keep their word. Common sense tells me they should raise the floor BEFORE we go to hell, but since when has common sense anything to do with central banking, right
?...I understand they donīt want to devaluate savings denominated in CHF and therefore damage the credit of swiss banks as safe havens and stuff, but still, if they once determined such policy, they canīt simply abandon it, itīs credibility game after all...
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