EurAnalysis

The sun came out just before it started to drop... but we still need a close below 1.3080/90 before we call the bears again.

By the way, if you're still looking for a bride, I can send you Poonam Pandey's email address

am Just found cute one for rekon,she work In Panasonic malaysia as Accounting but to be honest,I think she is more suitable for Krunfx,since Krun live In Malaysia also..huhuhu

Here

Thx PT! Appreciate your time and concern on the very important matter

I am not sure to balance my work life, Forex and Poonam Pandey all together .. for the time being lets engage Fxm with Poonam ... and I'll try spending more time with the HR associate

andreeee Lipa Lipaaaaaa ~

Man! You can write a DVD of your all hairy girls and sale in ebay

Its really weird...am keep Googling about Hot Girl...But it keep appear these Pic...Something wrong with my Computer

It is ok..Google has smart algorithm to find out the best search result for the client pc / person .. U get the best what U actually wanted!

Sorry PT, I do have to disappoint you and my fellow traders. UV-rays are not much affected by cloudy weather, which means that hypothesis of their effect on market may not be correct.... sorry man.

save for krun

Damn... another theory in the trash

Updated Channels & Fibo

E/U M5


E/U H4

Something to keep in mind tomorrow and Thursday

--Wednesday, April 18: Extended deadline for some Greek foreign-law bond holdouts to tender their bonds.

--Thursday, April 19: Spanish, French bond auctions. Meeting of Group of 20 deputy finance ministers (through April 22).

Wednesday, Apr 18th

04:00 EUR Current Account

04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change; MPC Meeting Minutes; Unemployment Rate

05:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations

05:00 GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks

10:30 CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report

10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

11:15 CAD BOC Press Conference

18:30 JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks

18:45 NZD CPI

19:50 JPY Trade Balance

21:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence
Thursday, Apr 19th

Tentative EUR Spanish 10 Year Bond Auction

08:30 USD Unemployment Claims

10:00 USD Existing Home Sales; Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage

14:00 GBP MPC Member Posen Speaks

19:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Activity

21:30 AUD Import Prices
Friday, Apr 20th04:00 EUR German Ifo Business Climate

04:30 GBP Retail Sales

08:30 CAD Core CPI; CPI

Hi Guys,

Hope everyone is well and trading is good. Has been a while since when i last posted on this thread.

I have been trying to implemenet a consistent profitable strategy, until a trader told me about Market Profile. This tool is used mainly by futures traders and provides great insight into volume at different price levels.

Does anyone currently use Market Profile? And if so can someone recommend where to find great Market Profile software for forex etc..

Thanks

Alexander

Thanks To This Great Article Everyone Can Learn And Improve
16 April 2012 18:22 GMT http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/img/common/blank.gif










In the first part of our series we learned how United States Treasury Debt began to become accepted as the safest investments in the world.


In the second installment, we looked at the pricing and structure of the Treasury Debt market to learn how government debt affects Forex traders.


In this article, we are going to put this knowledge to work, learning how capital flows can affect currency exchange prices; and how we, as traders, might be able to use this to our advantage.


The Yield Curve

Bond investors will pay higher prices for higher degrees of safety. And this makes sense because, after all, when investing in bonds (also known as ‘fixed-income) one is often doing so for the safety of the investment – not the return.


The longer the bond has to maturity, the less relative safety it is perceived to have. Investors will often look at a 6 month Treasury bill as carrying considerably less risk than a 30 year Treasury Bond. A lot can happen in 30 years; and although the US government is anticipated to play a large role of the economy in 30 years: its exact role is uncertain, as are a litany of other factors.


Bond investors don’t like uncertainty. This is reflected in the ‘Yield Curve,’ which is a graphical representation of rates at an approximate maturity. In most cases, the higher the maturity, the higher the rate. This is a ‘normal’ yield curve, and this is what most investors expect to see in the Treasury debt market.








‘Risk-off Markets’

When investors around the world are concerned about economic growth, they will often place a higher value on the safety of their invested principal. Think about it for a moment –

What does a 10% return on investment produce if you’ve lost 15% of your principal?


This produces a negative return, right?


Well, if an investor is anticipating that this may happen – they have the option to put their money in an investment that will, likely, not lose any of the principal if held to maturity. We examined this in The History of US Debt, as the Treasury bill is considered the ‘risk-free rate of return.’


As investors flock towards US Treasuries, increased buying pressure will often push prices higher. Since prices and yields move inversely, we will often see yields move lower.


The below graphic will show you an example of a Treasury Yield Curve before, and after a ‘flight-to-quality.’ Notice that red line, symbolizing the Treasury Yield Curve after the ‘flight-to-quality’ has pushed yields lower at all maturities. This expresses the new higher price of treasuries after investors have bid prices higher.





http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...dy_Chart_2.png

Treasury Yield Curve before and after a ‘flight-to-quality’

The red line on the above chart shows where yields moved during a ‘risk-off’ market, as treasury prices were pushed higher (and yields lower) at all relevant maturities.


While investors can potentially profit by buying treasuries before a ‘flight-to-quality’ and selling them after prices have moved higher – there are quite a few other ways to speculate on these moves. Investors in the Forex market have access to vast amounts of leverage that can potentially turn one of these events into a very profitable endeavor (or potentially a losing endeavor depending on whether the trader was on the right or wrong side of the move).


How to Play Risk-Off in the Forex Market


The first thing that needs to be learned by traders and investors looking to profit during these bearish times is the fact that when US Treasuries are purchased, the transaction is performed in US Dollars.


If a Hedge Fund Manager in Berlin wants to buy Treasuries, they need US Dollars to do so.


As Treasury prices are increasing during ‘flights-to-quality,’ we’ll also often see a rise in the price of the US Dollar (since investors are exchanging into US Dollars to buy Treasuries).


For example, during the Financial Collapse of 2008 – in which the United States was mired in an almost literal collapse of the financial system – investors flocked to Treasuries, and further, the US Dollar at a breakneck pace.


The chart below shows the rise in the US Dollar (and fall of British Pounds) sparked by the 2008 Financial Collapse:





http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_3.png

GBP/USD fall sparked by 2008 Financial Collapse – Created with Marketscope/Trading Station

As the 2008 Financial Collapse circulated across the globe, the chart above shows us that investors sold British Pounds for US Dollars to the tune of a 27% move.

This in-and-of-itself might not be all that exciting, but when you consider the fact that traders and investors could have leveraged this situation up to 50 times their equity (or perhaps even greater leverage depending on where one lived and what leverage was allowed); we begin to see how these ‘risk-off’ movements can potentially be very profitable.


Let’s look at a few other currencies performance during the 2008 Financial Collapse:





http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png

Major Currencies against the US Dollar during 2008 Financial Collapse

Notice that the US Dollar strengthened in each of the charts above (It is of note that the US Dollar is the base currency in the USDCAD pair, which is why price went up on the pair as the Dollar strengthened.)


And once again, these moves can be magnified significantly with the usage of leverage. We always advise traders to control their leverage, and we found that a level of 5-to-1 may be preferable for most traders in the FX Market in our Traits of Successful Traders series.


But even leveraging these moves by a factor of 5-to-1 could have doubled a trader’s account! If the EURUSD move above was leveraged 5 times, the trader could have seen a 100% return on the trade to double their investment (you can multiply the percentage of the move by the leverage factor to find the investors return.) Keep in mind – leverage is a double-edged sword that could also deplete funds from traders’ accounts.

Investors looking to play risk-off moves in the Forex market can look to do so buying US Dollars.


As increased worry and panic permeates the financial markets, we could see investors eschewing higher rates of return to buy one of the safest investments on the planet: US Treasuries. As investors and capital flow into Treasuries (and out of other investments), one could expect the Yield curve to fall (remember, as prices increase – yields decrease): And as the yield curve is falling, the US Dollar is usually strengthening against many of the world’s major currencies (because investors need US Dollars to buy Treasuries).


And leverage – well, leverage allows the FX Trader to see MASSIVE changes in account equity during these tumultuous times; when the rest of the world is running for cover attempting to shield from the pervasive losses of equity markets across the world – the Forex Trader can potentially profit (or lose) very large amounts of money very quickly.


This is why Forex is one of the best markets in the world for Active Traders and Passive Investors alike: With a 2-sided currency quote, in which you can generally buy just as easily as you can sell, a bear market is merely a frame-of-mind. When it looks as though the economy is headed for a downturn, as we saw in 2008 with the Financial Collapse, or 2011 with the European Debt Crisis – FX Traders can look to ‘go long’ US Dollars by shorting the EURUSD, or GBPUSD pairs.


--- Written by James B. Stanley

Kno's Comments:

The above article best explains what I try to explain here on this thread. My trading results improved once I learned this lesson only by observing as I traded. It was self discovery for me. I would suggest that PipTrapper might want to add the information to our resource page. We are all fortunate to be able to continue to make this the BEST place on the internet to have access to great trading information and resources. Have a great trading day and use a Trade Plan and watch for Risk On and Risk Off and Follow the MONEY FLOW between Asset Classes for your EDGE !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ading_dark.gif

i do it manually on excell becos it give much better feel.forex doesnt have volume hence i use tpo volume.

The Spanish Guitar

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/publ...guitar-424.jpg



Monday was another down day for the S&P500, but a rather pleasant day for the Dow. Caterpillar and Shitibank had nice rallies going – for a while. Both finished well off of their highs. AAPL and GOOG on the other hand were slammed all day long. Are they in a race to see which will reach $500/share first?

On a more positive note for the markets in general, this was the fourth heaviest exchange volume of the year. Perhaps we may are headed towards more practical levels?

But even the bright spots on the valuation and volume horizon, it can’t hide the black cloud that is Southern Europe. With another European Central Bank bailout eminent, it’s the same old tune. Unfortunately, this time it’s a louder instrument.

The Greek lyre has been replaced by a cacophonous Spanish guitar. Yes, Spain will be the next member of the Eurozone to beg for a financial bailout. Spain’s bond yields are now perilously close to the 7 per cent level that forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to come singing their “woes is me, we ain’t got no money” song to the ECB.

The problem is that Spain's €1.1-trillion economy is twice the size of the previous three bailout victims put together. It seems Spain was “mistaken” about their debt levels. The Wall Street Journal reported that Spain’s Debt/GDP ratio is closer to 135% than its “official” 68.5%.

It’s so bad in Spain that their inept federal financiers have to bail out the even more inept autonomous regions. Some regions have failed to pay public service contractors for months and now the Spanish central government has offered credits to help pay those debts. It’s the equivalent of the federal government bailing out say Michigan or Mississippi and telling Texas and Florida they have to clean up the mess.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”



Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.




[email protected]
Trading Advantage

April 17, 2012, at 3:40 pm
by Jim Sinclair in the category Jim's Mailbox |


Hello Jim,
That $1650 sure is a magnet, both on the upside and downside. I suspect we will hover around this range for the next week or so until the FOMC where Bernake will tell everyone how rosy things are, however Europe still poses a threat. Then down goes gold I would suspect. However, I am seeing this $1650 as quite the resistance level so who knows? Then in the following weeks we’ll see more unfavourable news continuing from the US as well as sh*t hitting the fan in Spain, Arab Spring in full force, and the stock market possibly turning over. All this just in time for the June FOMC and presidential campaigning. So I think I now understand when you say June may be the turnaround time. QE to infinity.

We in Canada announced this morning our interest rates are staying on hold… for now. I work in banking so I have already fielded several calls this morning on clients wanting to ‘lock in rates’ and worried that rates may increase. If everyone is concerned about a 0.25 or 0.5% increase, what does that say about the state of the consumer? They are worried. Then I thought how the citizens of the US would feel if there was a prospect on increasing rates. Probably would feel the same and then some. Increasing rates prior to 2014? Not a chance.

Anyway, quick question though: wouldn’t all the recent negative economic news – housing starts, manufacturing indices, jobless claims… have some sort of positive impact on the price of gold? I think the manipulators are holding it down because they know the storm that is coming.
CIGA Lou Lou

Dear Lou-Lou,
It is actually the opposite. MSM Main Street media controls what people believe to be true. MSM is the source of their intellectual basis. MSM has informed everyone on a daily basis, hundreds of time a day, by wire and financial TV that the Fed has an appetite to sit and watch to see if the present weakness is the beginning of a weak economic trend or a lull in the recovery. As such, the lousy economic news is not the friend of gold until the public perceives QE in earnest. It will come and come soon. Until then, yes $1650 is the most powerful magnet among them all.

That is good because it negates those who pan gold to line their pockets with gold.
Jim
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...nclair33v2.jpg
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...inclair342.jpg
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...nclair35v2.jpg
Jim,
During today’s trading there were simultaneous "V" drops and recoveries in both gold and silver. The drop in gold was around $20.
What’s behind a move like that? Did a large holder have to get out fast or was this a failed manipulation move?
Regards,
CIGA Stephan

Stephan,
The reason behind the V drops were manipulators at the gold banks versus cash market buyers fighting it out while most voices call for lower precious metals prices because they simply do not understand what gold is. Gold’s price detractors are wrong in thinking that the Fed can sit back and cogitate about economic indices as the bottom starts dropping out of international business without the application of enthusiastic QE
Jim

Jim,
In the last 25 years, the main stream media’s news has gone from the "Fourth Estate" to "Tabloid News" to finally "Propaganda".
The sad thing is that the vast majority of the population doesn’t even realize the shift. They still believe it is the Fourth Estate.
CIGA Jeff S

Dear Jeff,
It is worse than that. MSM’s mission is no different from what intelligence services do in the opposite when they wish to unsettle an enemy country.
Today’s reality is what is real to Main Street media. They are writing whatever history they want in the present. The worst still is utterances of the truth are considered as that of the enemy.

This usually is what exists at the end of empires when what is real cannot be confronted by the citizens, short of revolution.
Regards,
Jim

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-race-is-nasty

If You Think This Presidential Race Is Nasty, Look What the Founding Fathers Called Each Other!


The following is an excerpt from Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters
You think this presidential race is nasty? The Founding Fathers had it beat. In the race between John Adams and Thomas Jefferson for president in 1800, Jefferson called Adams "a blind, bald, crippled, toothless man who is a hideous hermaphroditic character with neither the force and fitness of a man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman."

In turn, Adams called Jefferson "a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father."

Compare these with the relative politeness of today.

Below is a chart tracing the yield on the bellwether ten-year note. The income for lending your money to Uncle Sam is practically nothing.

As we move on, the cry will go up for INCOME. Where do we find anything like safe income? Answer -- get a cushy job with the government.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...9-feb-2012.jpg

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...absolute-money

Gold Is Absolute Money!



By Richard Russell01/11/2012




The following is an excerpt from Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters
For a decade I have been urging my subscribers to move into gold — either physical bullion or other wise. Now I am at it again: PLEASE MOVE INTO GOLD. Those who think gold has lapsed into a bear market simply do not know what they are talking about. Gold has simply been correcting in an on-going bull market.

This is a time when almost every CB in the world is grinding out paper currency, grinding it out by the car-load. This is a time when people are searching for safety. People are frightened and confused. Where is the land of safety?

There is only one safe asset on the planet: that safe asset is gold. Uninformed people believe gold is just a commodity. Wrong, gold is absolute money. Gold alone is the world's only completely safe currency. Gold has no counter-party against it, and no central bank has ever found a way to create gold.

The fact is that gold can only be produced by the sweat, ingenuity, and capitalization of men.

The key to the entire situation today is something you don't hear anyone talking about. I am referring to PAIN. I am referring to the fear and avoidance of pain. When a man loses his job it's painful. When a man does not know how he's going to feed his family it's painful. These are basics that every politician knows about.

The first job of every politician is to get reelected. If the pol's constituents are feeling pain they will not vote for the politician who represents them. Every politician knows this, and thus politicians always vote for spending plans that they hope will keep their constituents happy. All during the years following the World War II politicians have OK'd an endless parade of spending bills. As a result the US national debt has grown to over $13 trillion dollars — an amount that would have been considered inconceivable just a few years ago. Almost every nation on earth has indulged in the same kind of fiscal madness.

To cover the insane spending, nations have had to create an almost endless amount of fiat currency. This avalanche of "money" has steadily reduced the buying power of almost every currency. The result is that it takes increasingly more money to buy one ounce of real money – gold.

Gold may now be ending its latest correction (see chart on yesterday's site). If I am correct in this, gold is in a buying zone.

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/21901610