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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #30,821
  • Apr 13, 2012 9:51am Apr 13, 2012 9:51am
Quoting rufaz
IMO, it can be bullish. but just for ~20 pips. then i think it'll dive again.
Sure, but will we see 75 again before we see 90 is the bigger picture. That offers a significant risk/reward if you can be ok with putting your money in and leaving it.
  • #30,822
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:28am Apr 13, 2012 10:28am
Quoting rufaz
IMO, it can be bullish. but just for ~20 pips. then i think it'll dive again.
ah well, targetting for at least 100 pips here
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #30,823
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:31am Apr 13, 2012 10:31am
Quoting lolygagv2
Sure, but will we see 75 again before we see 90 is the bigger picture. That offers a significant risk/reward if you can be ok with putting your money in and leaving it.
what do you see I don't?
79-80 I could see but 75?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #30,824
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:34am Apr 13, 2012 10:34am
Quoting USD-Bear
what do you see I don't?
79-80 I could see but 75?
I'm talking about macro picture here, if you're willing to leave your money in for the rest of the year. It's 1000 pips up, 500 pips down 2:1 risk reward, if there's even a 50/50 probability of it hitting 90 first, that's HUGE. It's a good time to get in and start building a long position.
  • #30,825
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:42am Apr 13, 2012 10:42am
Quoting lolygagv2
I'm talking about macro picture here, if you're willing to leave your money in for the rest of the year. It's 1000 pips up, 500 pips down 2:1 risk reward, if there's even a 50/50 probability of it hitting 90 first, that's HUGE. It's a good time to get in and start building a long position.
in from 77.50 with another position, targeting 100 (might be wrong)
But why do you see 75 first?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #30,826
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:46am Apr 13, 2012 10:46am
it could drop to 80 before it goes up but this would be more favourable if rsi had crossed the 30 level
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  • #30,827
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:28am Apr 13, 2012 11:28am
Quoting USD-Bear
in from 77.50 with another position, targeting 100 (might be wrong)
But why do you see 75 first?

I DON'T ......I'm picking 75 and 90 because they are solid numbers.

I'm saying right now, you can begin placing longs, with a target of 90, and a stop loss of 75....and you could trail after say 85 by maybe 150 pips.
  • #30,828
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:38am Apr 13, 2012 11:38am
Quoting lolygagv2
I DON'T ......I'm picking 75 and 90 because they are solid numbers.

I'm saying right now, you can begin placing longs, with a target of 90, and a stop loss of 75....and you could trail after say 85 by maybe 150 pips.
thought I read: "Sure, but will we see 75 again before we see 90 is the bigger picture."
I'm confused.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #30,829
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:44am Apr 13, 2012 11:44am
Quoting USD-Bear
thought I read: "Sure, but will we see 75 again before we see 90 is the bigger picture."
I'm confused.....
"will we see 75 again?" -grammar

Yes it' s question .......if the answer is "No, we will not see 75 again" and you place a Long.....you stand to make a 2:1 reward to Risk trade by putting a stop at 75 and a TP at 90
  • #30,830
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:51am Apr 13, 2012 11:51am
Quoting lolygagv2
"will we see 75 again?" -grammar

Yes it' s question .......if the answer is "No, we will not see 75 again" and you place a Long.....you stand to make a 2:1 reward to Risk trade by putting a stop at 75 and a TP at 90
ah ic thanks, voting for NO
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #30,831
  • Edited Apr 17, 2012 11:03am Apr 16, 2012 4:03pm | Edited Apr 17, 2012 11:03am
Eying on a long here based on D1 and H4 ichimoku:

D1: although D1 gave a weak bearish signal with confirmation near current level I'd expect support at around current level from daily and weekly Kumo and weekly Kijun sen. Furhter support from 50%fib is at 79.820. On the weekly chart this would confirm a bullish continuation of last months Kumo breakout.

Setup:
EN looking for better entry below 8092 ###edit: 80092(as TL in chart)###or CCI > -100
SL 79.580,
TP open for now

H4: possible macd divergence.
EN waiting for weak TKx (Tenkan Kijun Cross) and confirmation from chikou span to enter long
SL tbc upon entry
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  • #30,832
  • Apr 16, 2012 4:48pm Apr 16, 2012 4:48pm
Quoting 2046
Eying on a long here based on D1 and H4 ichimoku:

D1: although D1 gave a weak bearish signal with confirmation near current level I'd expect support at around current level from daily and weekly Kumo and weekly Kijun sen. Furhter support from 50%fib is at 79.820. On the weekly chart this would confirm a bullish continuation of last months Kumo breakout.

Setup:
EN looking for better entry below 8092 or CCI > -100
SL 79.580,
TP open for now

H4: possible macd divergence.
EN waiting for weak TKx (Tenkan Kijun Cross) and confirmation from chikou...
I will start buying right under 80 with no SL and open TP. RR looks appealing with the BOJ behind
  • #30,833
  • Apr 16, 2012 5:02pm Apr 16, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting hornsant
I will start buying right under 80 with no SL and open TP. RR looks appealing with the BOJ behind
This has been an agonizing wait, but the down move is almost over imo. Have a buy order around the 50 fib, and will add if it continues down to .618 or if I get good rebound off the 50 fib. The bond buying worked well the last time, so I'm sure the Japanese Minister won't hesitate to do it again.
  • #30,834
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:35pm Apr 16, 2012 9:35pm
Just broke the 30 day low. Im shorting this motha!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #30,835
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:40pm Apr 16, 2012 9:40pm
There's a few ideas I have of where the price is going to go. One feel I have is it's going to go down to 60.00. Where the price is currently lined up coincides with multiple fib extensions. I also find it weird that people say the price is "correcting" when it's going down. There's the lowest low right there, and if the price can't surpass the 86.00 level, it will fall down from there.

There's possible retracement scenarios as well. I think there will a be a resistance test at the smaller fib .5 and/or .618 level(s). However, these retests would be around 2015, so that's a very long wait.

Btw: this is a monthly chart.
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Play the players, not the cards.
  • #30,836
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:35am Apr 17, 2012 3:35am
I think that it's the best time for SEll! As we see that it pushed from resistance level.
  • #30,837
  • Apr 17, 2012 8:49am Apr 17, 2012 8:49am
Let see If I can get a decent channel bouce....huhuhu

CAD/JPY and USD/CAD were a good play today with the CAD data..GL!
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  • #30,838
  • Apr 17, 2012 11:04am Apr 17, 2012 11:04am
Quoting Chillypiper
Let see If I can get a decent channel bouce....huhuhu

CAD/JPY and USD/CAD were a good play today with the CAD data..GL!
There out to get me it appers.... Took 1/2 on the C/J as U/Cad is at range bottom. Not because of this veiw..U/J still running


http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...s-its-footing/
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  • #30,839
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:10pm Apr 17, 2012 2:10pm
Strong bar today. I've been building a long position the last three trading days, and I believe today's daily bar is a good indication of things to come. To say the USD/JPY could feasibly drop to 60 is a joke, the Japanese economy would literally cease to exist. Nothing's impossible, but I put my bet on things that are probable.
  • #30,840
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:44pm Apr 17, 2012 2:44pm
i expect one more leg down...80.0 and the 50% fib level at 80.1 are real magnets here
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