EurAnalysis

I just enjoy your posts and insight. Using another person as an indicator is a bad thing to do.

hehehe..tomoroww is my exam..

lol ... speculate your exam papers then.

hahahahhaa.....rileks man..after BOC i will speculate what will come for tomorow..hahahha

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120417163567/

Dollar regains some ground in Asian session today as sentiments are dragged down by China equity markets. Data from China's Ministry of Commerce showed foreign direct investment dropped for the fifth consecutive month by -6.1% yoy in March to $11.76b. Total number for Q1 dropped -2.8% yoy to $29.48b. FDI from EU dropped sharply by -31.2% to $1.4b in Q1 highlighting the impact from European debt crisis.

Some analysts noted that the droop in FDI also indicates reduced attractiveness of China due to yuan's appreciation in recent years and domestic inflation. And, it's believed that FDI will reduce the country's external surplus and thus lower the pressure for yuan to appreciate. Nonetheless, today's data still leaves China on course to meet it's target of average of $120b a year in the next four years.

A reported in China Securities Journal, published by PBoC, noted that "the current time represents a rare strategic moment to speed up capital account opening" and yuan is "not far from becoming an international reserve currency". The report noted that the interest rate and exchange rate in China are not decided by "international capital flows". The reported instead said interest rates should be decided by "domestic economic and financial conditions" while exchange rate should be primarily determined by "trade conditions with other countries". Last week, PBoC widened the trading range of RMB against USD by 50 bps to 1%.

The April RBA minutes signaled that policymakers did not consider cutting interest rates appropriate at the meeting, despite softer employment market and downward revision in economic assessments. The possibility of a rate cut appears lower than what is priced in the market. Yet, the CPI print for 1Q12 would be a key determining factor for the monetary decision. As stated in the minute, 'members had lowered their assessment of the pace of growth somewhat' and 'if slower growth in demand could be expected to result in a more moderate inflation outcome, then a case could be made for further easing of monetary policy'. Moreover, it's mentioned that there is an 'opportunity at its next meeting to review the inflation outlook based on comprehensive new data on prices, as well as information on demand and output'. These indicated that the inflation report for 1Q12 would be a determining factor for the monetary decision in May. More in RBA's May Decision Depends on CPI Data.

Spain's 12-month and 18-month bill auction will be closely watched today after 10 year yield touched as high as 6.16% yesterday, and is on course to the 7% unsustainable level which eventually pushed Greece, Ireland and Portugal for bailout. CDS on Spain also reached another record high yesterday as investors are in deep worry on whether Spain's austerity measures would be sustainable should recession worsens. Spain warned yesterday that it could seize control of finances in regional governments to meet the budget deficit cut and shore up investor confidence.

Japan pledged to use its foreign exchange reserves and contribute $60b in loans to IMF to curtail spread of European debt crisis. Japan Finance minister Azumi warned they can't be optimistic about situation in Europe yet despite recent policy efforts. IMF Chief Lagarde welcomed the move as an "important step forward in the ongoing international effort to strengthen the adequacy of the global resources available to prevent and fight crises and to promote global ecSnomic stability". Lagarde also urged other members to contribute more as the finance ministers from G20 are meeting in Washington later this week. Lagarde hopes to reach the "critical mass of more than $400b".

On the data front, Japan household confidence rose more thane expected to 40.3 in March. UK and Eurozone CPI will be released and a main focus in European session in German ZEW , which is expected to deteriorate to 19.5 in April. From US, new residential construction will be released with industrial production. Bank of Canada will announce rate decision today and should keep rates unchanged at 1.00%.

Kno's Comments: The ZEW being good gave a positive tone to EUR/USD for the moment. at 6:00 AM watch Retail Behaviour... That goes on until 9:30 AM...

Good Trading and wait for a Trade Opportunity instead of just trading.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._and_Euro.html

Dollar Advances on Carry, Stumbles Against Safe Havens and Euro
Given the complex web of fundamentals we have had to follow for the dollar recently, it is easy to become lost in the ‘why’ of the currency’s tumble Monday. In fact, the explanation for the benchmark’s stumble doesn’t have to go much further beyond its own inactivity level. Looking for fundamental cues for the session, we note: underlying risk trends were unmoved and relatively reserved on a volatility basis; the modest premium in the US benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was little moved at its already deflated 1.98 percent; and scheduled event risk did little to alter either the growth or stimulus consensus. In essence, the greenback was left adrift and exposed to the strength or weakness of its most liquid counterparts. That exposure translated into an interesting mix for the majors. Relative safe haven USDJPY was the biggest hit for the dollar (0.65 percent) while an impressive showing for the euro triggered a sharp reversal from 1.3300 and 0.49 percent rally.


When liquid pairs such as EURUSD (the most liquid FX pair, accounting for 28 percent of total daily FX turnover as estimated by the BIS’s 2010 triennial report) and USDJPY (14 percent) post large moves due to non dollar-based factors, the impact is nevertheless felt. Naturally, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (an equal weighted index of EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD and AUDUSD) would reflect the stand out volatility of its components. Despite an early morning advance, the USDollar ended Monday painted in red, though it has buffer room until we start talking about a serious turn lower. For the bears to really gain traction, we’d have to slide below 9,900. Until then, we remain in a broad range.


Over the next 24 hours, the focus remains on the cross winds from the Euro-area’s situation as well as general risk appetite trends. For general sentiment bearings, the S&P 500 ended Monday’s session virtually unchanged as the better than expected 0.8 percent retail sales reading garnered little interest from either QE speculators or relative growth watchers. That being the case, it is wise to similarly put little weight on the influence of the upcoming housing and industrial production data scheduled for release. Instead, keep tabs on equities and Treasury yields.


Euro Rally Outpaces General Risk Trends, Funding Concerns Ease
The euro put in for a standout performance Monday – advancing against all of its major counterparts with the exception of the Japanese yen and the warped safe-haven Swiss franc. This strength should be considered tentative as it was more of a relief from recent pressure rather than outright strength. A few headlines that eased the tension on the depressed euro included news that the ECB didn’t reactivate the SMP government bond purchasing program, a reduction to €1.928 trillion for the Italian government debt load and vows from French President Sarkozy that he would push for the ECB to support growth (rather than keep the focus expressly) on inflation if reelected. There is an element of bullishness behind all of these considerations, but the risk of a reemergence of regional crisis fears is just below the surface. On that front, we will see if the market has an adverse reaction to shorter-term Greek and Spanish bond auctions tomorrow (scheduled for 4:30 GMT). If fear the focus turns back onto the unchecked regional financial crisis, fears of spillover will dot the headlines once again.

16 April 2012 18:22 GMT http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/img/common/blank.gif










In the first part of our series we learned how United States Treasury Debt began to become accepted as the safest investments in the world.


In the second installment, we looked at the pricing and structure of the Treasury Debt market to learn how government debt affects Forex traders.


In this article, we are going to put this knowledge to work, learning how capital flows can affect currency exchange prices; and how we, as traders, might be able to use this to our advantage.


The Yield Curve

Bond investors will pay higher prices for higher degrees of safety. And this makes sense because, after all, when investing in bonds (also known as ‘fixed-income) one is often doing so for the safety of the investment – not the return.


The longer the bond has to maturity, the less relative safety it is perceived to have. Investors will often look at a 6 month Treasury bill as carrying considerably less risk than a 30 year Treasury Bond. A lot can happen in 30 years; and although the US government is anticipated to play a large role of the economy in 30 years: its exact role is uncertain, as are a litany of other factors.


Bond investors don’t like uncertainty. This is reflected in the ‘Yield Curve,’ which is a graphical representation of rates at an approximate maturity. In most cases, the higher the maturity, the higher the rate. This is a ‘normal’ yield curve, and this is what most investors expect to see in the Treasury debt market.




http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...dy_Chart_1.png

Normal Yield Curve – Return increases with Maturity

‘Risk-off Markets’

When investors around the world are concerned about economic growth, they will often place a higher value on the safety of their invested principal. Think about it for a moment –

What does a 10% return on investment produce if you’ve lost 15% of your principal?


This produces a negative return, right?


Well, if an investor is anticipating that this may happen – they have the option to put their money in an investment that will, likely, not lose any of the principal if held to maturity. We examined this in The History of US Debt, as the Treasury bill is considered the ‘risk-free rate of return.’


As investors flock towards US Treasuries, increased buying pressure will often push prices higher. Since prices and yields move inversely, we will often see yields move lower.


The below graphic will show you an example of a Treasury Yield Curve before, and after a ‘flight-to-quality.’ Notice that red line, symbolizing the Treasury Yield Curve after the ‘flight-to-quality’ has pushed yields lower at all maturities. This expresses the new higher price of treasuries after investors have bid prices higher.




http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...dy_Chart_2.png

Treasury Yield Curve before and after a ‘flight-to-quality’

The red line on the above chart shows where yields moved during a ‘risk-off’ market, as treasury prices were pushed higher (and yields lower) at all relevant maturities.


While investors can potentially profit by buying treasuries before a ‘flight-to-quality’ and selling them after prices have moved higher – there are quite a few other ways to speculate on these moves. Investors in the Forex market have access to vast amounts of leverage that can potentially turn one of these events into a very profitable endeavor (or potentially a losing endeavor depending on whether the trader was on the right or wrong side of the move).


How to Play Risk-Off in the Forex Market


The first thing that needs to be learned by traders and investors looking to profit during these bearish times is the fact that when US Treasuries are purchased, the transaction is performed in US Dollars.


If a Hedge Fund Manager in Berlin wants to buy Treasuries, they need US Dollars to do so.


As Treasury prices are increasing during ‘flights-to-quality,’ we’ll also often see a rise in the price of the US Dollar (since investors are exchanging into US Dollars to buy Treasuries).


For example, during the Financial Collapse of 2008 – in which the United States was mired in an almost literal collapse of the financial system – investors flocked to Treasuries, and further, the US Dollar at a breakneck pace.


The chart below shows the rise in the US Dollar (and fall of British Pounds) sparked by the 2008 Financial Collapse:




http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_3.png

GBP/USD fall sparked by 2008 Financial Collapse – Created with Marketscope/Trading Station

As the 2008 Financial Collapse circulated across the globe, the chart above shows us that investors sold British Pounds for US Dollars to the tune of a 27% move.

This in-and-of-itself might not be all that exciting, but when you consider the fact that traders and investors could have leveraged this situation up to 50 times their equity (or perhaps even greater leverage depending on where one lived and what leverage was allowed); we begin to see how these ‘risk-off’ movements can potentially be very profitable.


Let’s look at a few other currencies performance during the 2008 Financial Collapse:




http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio..._Picture_5.png

Major Currencies against the US Dollar during 2008 Financial Collapse

Notice that the US Dollar strengthened in each of the charts above (It is of note that the US Dollar is the base currency in the USDCAD pair, which is why price went up on the pair as the Dollar strengthened.)


And once again, these moves can be magnified significantly with the usage of leverage. We always advise traders to control their leverage, and we found that a level of 5-to-1 may be preferable for most traders in the FX Market in our Traits of Successful Traders series.


But even leveraging these moves by a factor of 5-to-1 could have doubled a trader’s account! If the EURUSD move above was leveraged 5 times, the trader could have seen a 100% return on the trade to double their investment (you can multiply the percentage of the move by the leverage factor to find the investors return.) Keep in mind – leverage is a double-edged sword that could also deplete funds from traders’ accounts.

Investors looking to play risk-off moves in the Forex market can look to do so buying US Dollars.


As increased worry and panic permeates the financial markets, we could see investors eschewing higher rates of return to buy one of the safest investments on the planet: US Treasuries. As investors and capital flow into Treasuries (and out of other investments), one could expect the Yield curve to fall (remember, as prices increase – yields decrease): And as the yield curve is falling, the US Dollar is usually strengthening against many of the world’s major currencies (because investors need US Dollars to buy Treasuries).


And leverage – well, leverage allows the FX Trader to see MASSIVE changes in account equity during these tumultuous times; when the rest of the world is running for cover attempting to shield from the pervasive losses of equity markets across the world – the Forex Trader can potentially profit (or lose) very large amounts of money very quickly.


This is why Forex is one of the best markets in the world for Active Traders and Passive Investors alike: With a 2-sided currency quote, in which you can generally buy just as easily as you can sell, a bear market is merely a frame-of-mind. When it looks as though the economy is headed for a downturn, as we saw in 2008 with the Financial Collapse, or 2011 with the European Debt Crisis – FX Traders can look to ‘go long’ US Dollars by shorting the EURUSD, or GBPUSD pairs.


--- Written by James B. Stanley

Kno's Comments:

The above article best explains what I try to explain here on this thread. My trading results improved once I learned this lesson only by observing as I traded. It was self discovery for me. I would suggest that PipTrapper might want to add the information to our resource page. We are all fortunate to be able to continue to make this the BEST place on the internet to have access to great trading information and resources. Have a great trading day and use a Trade Plan and watch for Risk On and Risk Off and Follow the MONEY FLOW between Asset Classes for your EDGE !!!

Rekon,

Really mah ? lemme see her facebook

huhuhuhu

Please Post Your Charts Cutie !!!

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5


Timeframe: 5 minute | hourly | daily | weeklyhttp://www.finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifhttp://www.finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?...02396079107500

She is not added to my FB ... she seems very conservative ... in the mean time my mom seems proactive searching brides for me. She given away my contact details to a girl.

That girl just send me a friend request to me ... I don't want to Add her.

Great ! This is how the Game Play buddy
Ignored her first and slowly approach

Lolz...am here sweetie

I will die if I dont get the HR as my girl friend ... Forex world will loose a talented but yet established trader.

Horny guy,yamate Itai Itai Yooo

Dark Cloud on USDX 4H - Resuming Down Sign

Just closed all 6 buy positions from 1.30xx range + 185 pips .. now we are witnessing one monkey trying climbing a long weekly candle ... monkey should come down to the bottom of 1.299x ... huhuhu..

2 rising method with London Bull engulf - Bullish Sign

Now depend with NY for resuming the bull or bringing down for breath

ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours

GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
3:00
NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAR)

60.3%

Foreign interest tapering

4:30
JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB F)

-1.2%

Final revisions expected to be unchanged, though calls for additional easing increasing

4:30
JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB F)

1.5%
4:30
JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (FEB F)

3.4%

5:00
JPY

Consumer Confidence (MAR)

40
39.5

May result in higher retail data

8:30
GBP

CPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%
0.6%

British CPI expected stable, core lower as fuel price increases seen to hurt demand for other items

8:30
GBP

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

3.4%
3.4%
8:30
GBP

Core CPI (YoY) (MAR)

2.3%
2.4%

8:30
GBP

RPI (MAR)

240.9
239.9

Retail sector expected to grow slower, provides BoE room for accommodative stance

8:30
GBP

RPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.4%
0.8%
8:30
GBP

RPI (YoY) (MAR)

3.6%
3.7%

8:30
GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (MAR)

3.7%
3.8%

9:00
EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (MAR)

1.5%
1.5%

Eurozone prices stable, gives credence to monetary easing as well as austerity, loans

9:00
EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (MAR)

1.2%
0.5%
9:00
EUR

Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (MAR)

2.6%
2.7%

9:00
EUR

German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (APR)

35
37.6

ZEW surveys expected to decline after months of gain; Spanish worries may exacerbate

9:00
EUR

Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR)

11
9:00
EUR

German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (APR)

19
22.3

12:30
CAD

Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (FEB)

0.1%
-0.9%

Shipments growing on domestics

12:30
USD

Housing Starts (MAR)

705K
698K

US housing sector expected to slowly recover, may be at flat valley bottom before recovery

12:30
USD

Housing Starts (MoM) (MAR)

1.0%
-1.1%
12:30
USD

Building Permits (MAR)

710K
715K

12:30
USD

Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

-0.7%
4.8%

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._and_Euro.html

Yep theres the monkey climbing on the candle ...