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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #26,921
  • Apr 16, 2012 10:39pm Apr 16, 2012 10:39pm
[quote=drzakir123;5579156]
Quoting FXMindset
Van K tharp teach you the Importance of Position size and MM
Ed Seykota always remind us cut your loss,cut your loss and cut your loss

while you risking 5% which ignored above 2 leader post[/
i agree with you.i have cut down my position by 70 % with minimal loss and i am left with 30% of my position and if stop loss touch which is about another approx 150 to 200 pips above then my loss going to be not more than 4 to 5 % of my account.the reason for keeping the position on is i am still very strongly bearish on euro.my...
Yeah,you my try learn the MM,there's a good thread in trading discussion thred tht called lesson learn thread
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,922
  • Apr 16, 2012 10:40pm Apr 16, 2012 10:40pm
Rekon,

So got your targeted girl for merid liao mah ?
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,923
  • Apr 16, 2012 10:55pm Apr 16, 2012 10:55pm
Quoting FXMindset
Rekon,

So got your targeted girl for merid liao mah ?
I've fallen in love with my HR associate .. I don't know how to propose her ..she is so kind and beautiful ... I am going to die for her.
  • #26,924
  • Apr 16, 2012 11:03pm Apr 16, 2012 11:03pm
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...l_Support.html




http://media.dailyfx.com/illustratio...y-april-16.png
EURUSD Daily Chart with Trendlines, Proprietary Indicator and ATR

COT Data: There is a still a big speculative short position in the EURUSD, but it has been diminished over the last several weeks. This takes some of the urgency out of buying should these shorts get spooked. It is still is an issue, but week by week is becoming less so. Since speculators are currently buying (decreasing short positions) if the trend continues it could push the EURUSD higher.


This is a secondary factor. With room to move in either direction, the price levels mentioned above are far more significant factors.


Seasonality:The seasonal pattern of the EURUSD dictates that mid-March often sees a bit of a pullback and then continues to rise into April. Mid-February to mid-April is an overall bullish time for the pair. This is a secondary indicator though. Price action matters much more.


Therefore....In myApril 4 analysisI stated "A drop below 1.3125 will put me back to neutral though." That has materialized, and therefore I am neutral on this pair on the short to medium-term. Inside two chart patterns I do not have enough confirmation of direction to make a trade at this point until a breakout occurs.


EURUSD Analysis – Trading Environment

As mentioned above, the pair is moving within a chart pattern and near support.


Daily Average Movement (2-week): 109.8pips. Keep this in mind if setting daily targets.


Over the last 5 weeks Monday and Thursday generally have had slightly higher volatility, nearing 120 pips in movement per day. Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday have tended towards 100 pips per day.


Average Weekly Volatility: Based on a 10 week ATR the pair is moving about 230 pips per week. Keep this in mind when considering whether your targets are likely to be hit next week.


Noteworthy Correlations to Other Pairs: Strong inverse correlation to USDCHF on an hourly and daily basis. Strong positive correlation to GBPUSD on a weekly basis.


Keep this is in mind to avoid overexposure, or find other trades which give the exposure you want but may set-up differently. Correlated pairs also offer hedging capabilities.


Cory Mitchell, CMT

Cory Mitchell is a proprietary trader and Chartered Market Technician specializing in short to medium-term technical strategies. He is the founder ofvantagepointtrading.com, a website dedicated to trader education and market analysis.
  • #26,925
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:19am Apr 17, 2012 1:19am
Don't put too much weight on this but it's good to keep in mind...

EUR/USD: Big US Bank Buying On Behalf Of IMF Over Last 24 Hours

By Sean Lee || April 17, 2012 at 04:40 GMT

This is to do with the IMF’s payments to Portugal and Greece and I believe that the buying is not yet complete so watch the wires during the European and North American sessions!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,926
  • Edited 2:13am Apr 17, 2012 1:30am | Edited 2:13am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Just auctions
GMT

8:30EURSpain 12 & 18M T-bill auction
9:00 EUR Greece
9:30EURBelgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills
10:00EUR EFSF to Sell Up to EUR2 Bln 182-Day Bills on April 17
15:00USD U.S. Fed to Purchase USD1.5-2 Bln Notes
15:30USD U.S. to Sell 4-Week Bills

There is quite a lot mixed information about times of each event. Since I'm naturally lazy person, I just don't bother to double check all times of events - just auctions.

So since information is subject to be incorrect, I believe it is not fair to mislead my fellow traders with such. So just auctions now.

ADD: Fixed times and added Greece. Damn this daylight saving confuses me... once you get the time differences of different zones they change it and they don't change at same time...
  • #26,927
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:32am Apr 17, 2012 1:32am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Don't put too much weight on this but it's good to keep in mind...

EUR/USD: Big US Bank Buying On Behalf Of IMF Over Last 24 Hours

By Sean Lee || April 17, 2012 at 04:40 GMT

This is to do with the IMF’s payments to Portugal and Greece and I believe that the buying is not yet complete so watch the wires during the European and North American sessions!
Yeah, that caught my eye from forexlive. It explains yesterdays sudden raise in EURUSD at NY - since there was no market reason for a that
  • #26,928
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:41am Apr 17, 2012 1:41am
good morning everybody.good news i am out of position with about 1.25% loss.lucky me.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #26,929
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:57am Apr 17, 2012 1:57am
Quoting drzakir123
good morning everybody.good news i am out of position with about 1.25% loss.lucky me.


Glad you made it out with only minor injuries.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,930
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:11am Apr 17, 2012 2:11am
Quoting PipTrapper


Glad you made it out with only minor injuries.
thank you piptrapper for all the support.ur support last night gave enough strength to stay with the position.i think credit goes to you,fxmindset and recon67.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #26,931
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:28am Apr 17, 2012 2:28am
i went long at 1.3095 and out with +30 pips that means manage to reduce my loss to 1%.now i am off to work will see u all in afternoon.bye
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #26,932
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:35am Apr 17, 2012 2:35am
Quoting drzakir123
good morning everybody.good news i am out of position with about 1.25% loss.lucky me.
Congrats to you! I sold my losing position when it was at its lowest. One more day, the cushion would have been lessened.

I learn allot when i lose. First the pain/regret. Then the reflection. Just have to keep reminder of what i learn every time i trade. Here is a short video about the greatest trader alive today and ever. He surpassed Warren Buffet recently.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/clip/12215

I have many books his company released to the public. I even seen some notes from his former employees when they took classes.. Its a mind boggle for the average dude like me, but i appreciate the things he has accomplish. And he is a reminder to me to not run away and face the issues. If that made sense, heh.

Time to rebuild and learn, hence no trades for the next two weeks. Need to chide my urges and stick to my system.
  • #26,933
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:15am Apr 17, 2012 3:15am
One big Sale is coming .... book ur positions ...
  • #26,934
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:41am Apr 17, 2012 3:41am
Quoting rekon67
One big Sale is coming .... book ur positions ...
USD Sale EUR Buy
  • #26,935
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:45am Apr 17, 2012 3:45am
Spanish auction results: Tesoro sold a total of Eur 3.18 bln of 12 and 18mth Letra out of a targeted Eur 2-3 bln

Written by Joe Brown
April 17, 2012 at 08:41 GMT

Sold Eur 2.09 bln of April 19 2013 Letra, yield 2.623 % (from 1.418%), cover 2.9 (from 2.14)

Sold Eur 1.09 bln of October 18 2013 letra, yield 3.110 % ( from 1.711%), cover 3.8 (from 2.93)

Expected high yields, but strong cover and above allocated take up. EUR’s heading higher on the results
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,936
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:50am Apr 17, 2012 3:50am
Quoting PipTrapper
[b]Spanish auction results: Tesoro sold a total of Eur 3.18 bln of 12 and 18mth Letra out of a targeted Eur 2-3 bln

Written by Joe Brown
April 17, 2012 at 08:41 GMT

[i][color=DarkSlateBlue]Sold Eur 2.09 bln of April 19 2013 Letra, yield 2.623 % (from 1.418%), cover 2.9 (from 2.14)

Sold Eur 1.09 bln of October 18 2013 letra, yield 3.110 % ( from 1.711%), cover 3.8 (from 2.93)

Expected...

hehehe..speculative move i think..but the concern will remain soon..hehehe
Bismillah
  • #26,937
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:51am Apr 17, 2012 3:51am
Now time for my daily dose of UV rays.

Lately, every time I have gone out for some sun and fresh air, the Euro has dropped. If history repeats itself, price should be down around 1.3100/1.3090 by the time I return. However, unless you're a gambler, don't use me as your indicator

http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2...hecks.1-lg.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,938
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:53am Apr 17, 2012 3:53am
Quoting krunfx
hehehe..speculative move i think..but the concern will remain soon..hehehe
Krun .. Hows the exam?
  • #26,939
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:54am Apr 17, 2012 3:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
Now time for my daily dose of UV rays.

Lately, every time I have gone out for some sun and fresh air, the Euro has dropped. If history repeats itself, price should be down around 1.3100/1.3090 by the time I return. However, unless you're a gambler, don't use me as your indicator

Lol .. I do.
  • #26,940
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:58am Apr 17, 2012 3:58am
Before I leave, here are today's option expiries at 1400GMT

1.3000
1.3090
1.3125
1.3150
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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