EurAnalysis

5% ? God..if 5% stand for 500 pips above maybe thats shouldnt be a problem,but if u 5% stand around 50 pips/100 pips then that will be a big problem and regarding everyone looking one way then go to other way also I think wont work In Forex,Rather than that you should or need understand how the market works and trade with proper MM & Mindset

also you need Learn to cut the loss and accept the loss


GL

if price touch 1.3090 its breakeven for me as my position is quite spread out and my uncle point is about 7 to 10 % loss,that mean i can stand another 130 to 150 pips move against me.

IMO,you cant try this method next time

i totally agree with you but i got this insight now, that i am a human being and presently under the control of my limbic system lol.jokes aside i have started to lighten my position and thats mean i havent lost control yet.i appreciate ur advice.thank you very much and may God give me the strength to follow ur advice.God bless you

Yes, compulsive... Saturday I drew this and I did not follow ... I hope it continues as I thought... yesterday +600pips now +5pips all the profits out.

The employees of the ECB want their own pensions to be inflation protected.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaf...-11717693.html

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/...t-the-ecb.html

Hi,

following my studies, I'll enter long on 1.3085/1.3065, SL 1.3020, TP1 1.3180, TP2 1.3250.

The time will tell.


Bye!

forexBOOM!

The key is to take smaller positions. If you are 5% in the red with only a 50 pip move, with this pair in my opinion you are playing a dangerous game.
For me to be 5% in the red, one position has to be 500 pips underwater. That is why I like to average in as price moves instead of taking a full position with my maximum exposure. It's okay to average into underwater trades also but you have to keep in mind that you should only do that to mitigate losses and not for hoping that there will be a reversal with greater profit, even though it may end up being the outcome anyway.

If you will break even at 1.3090, then you will probably be fine because I am seeing an overbought condition on H1.

MacD is showing a bearish HD and the RSX is above 90. Therefore, I expect a corrective move down before the next major push up (if we get one)

I still am a solid bear on the Euro and I welcome the next move down. I hope it hurries up and happens before the US goes bankrupt.

E/U H1

Interesting. And perhaps Germany may also have thrown in the towel and secretly accepts that inflation due to LTRO's etc is now unavoidable, as evidenced by German workers now being awarded higher wage increases...ie, if there's going to be higher inflation then the workers are looking to to be compensated. Also, as in the case with QE, once the easing starts it's hard to wean off it again and despite "official" ECB stance LTRO3 or similar may also be in the offing further down the road.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ce-threat.html

Excerpt ...

‘Turning Point’

IG Metall , Europe’s biggest labor union with about 3.6 million workers, is demanding 6.5 percent more pay.
Germany’s 2 million public service workers are set for a 6.3 percent raise over two years under an agreement reached with the government, the Ver.di union said on March 31. That would be the biggest increase negotiated by the union since 1992.
“The agreement will likely mark a turning point in wage developments in Germany after years of wage restraint.

thank you very much for the kind advice and suggestion.i am grateful for the support.thank u very much one more time.
'Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money'...ed seykota quote unquote.
I was thinking over this thought worth sharing with all of you.I was brought up saying if one work hard one can achieve anything.i took the word and miss the spirit of that saying.psycho wise i dont want easy money becos one has to work hard for it,hence by making things difficult for myself i am achieivng my psychological requirement.looking deeper i think there is lot more at stake here than 5 or 10 % of my account.if one consider at stake here are my parents teaching,my social background,my religion and my soul at the deepest and my whole philosophy of life.
by the way ralph vince mathemathics of money management, portfolia management and leverage space and ralph jones trading game, and van tharp on position sizing are good read.

Van K tharp teach you the Importance of Position size and MM
Ed Seykota always remind us cut your loss,cut your loss and cut your loss

while you risking 5% which ignored above 2 leader post

[quote=FXMindset;5579079]Van K tharp teach you the Importance of Position size and MM
Ed Seykota always remind us cut your loss,cut your loss and cut your loss

while you risking 5% which ignored above 2 leader post[/
i agree with you.i have cut down my position by 70 % with minimal loss and i am left with 30% of my position and if stop loss touch which is about another approx 150 to 200 pips above then my loss going to be not more than 4 to 5 % of my account.the reason for keeping the position on is i am still very strongly bearish on euro.my bearish feeling will subside if price break 1.3250 and start spending more time above 1.3270. i am keeping my option open and flexible. depending upon how situation develop i may completly liquidate my whole position and run with my tail between the legs.lol now i am sleepy after the hard work will see u tommorow bye.

Each currency pair has its own nature, I believe you are still good with your Sale from 1.3090 ... but it is simply not the way to trade this pair.

You need to honor the historical points before you press the Buy / Sale button. Not for simply you want to do Trading.

I always try to gauge the daily range in the morning by looking at previous candles in all TFs.

I then look at the areas of S/D, S/R, position of 200, 100 EMAs.

Then I try finding out the Historical points of possible reversals and Range the Market by pips.

I find High, Low, Median, key points before I enter the Trade.

If you do so you then will need to less bother about other theoritical books (IMO).

1.3090 was never a Sale point ..rather consider a range between 1.3210 to 1.2990 .. you find sale areas are from 1.3145, 1.3160 to 1.3090, 1.3070; Buy Stop 1.3165 -- 1.3180, 1.32xx.

Have a nice day ahead!

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...estroy-america

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...dy-Stewart.jpg


Fortunately, there are a few politicians that are willing to stand up and tell the truth about our national debt crisis. For example, in the video posted below Ron Paul scolds the rest of Congress for continuing to vote for debt limit increase after debt limit increase....

Unfortunately, the American people seem to prefer politicians that endlessly lie to them about how bad things really are.

For example, back at the beginning of the Bush administration we were promised that we would be swimming in gigantic surpluses by now.
That didn't exactly work out, now did it?

Barack Obama promised us that he would cut the size of the federal budget deficit in half by the end of his first term.
Well, guess what?
He lied too.

The sick thing about this is that the Federal Reserve system is actually designed to generate government debt. The U.S. national debt is now more than 5000 times larger than it was when the Federal Reserve was created back in 1913. So it is kind of ironic that the head of the organization that was designed to perpetually generate U.S. government debt is now warning that there is too much of it.

But Ben Bernanke is far from alone in warning about the danger of our exploding national debt.

For example, world famous motivational speaker Tony Robbins is also warning that the national debt crisis could destroy our future.

These days, most people throw around the phrase "a trillion dollars" without ever really grasping what it means.

In the video posted below, Tony Robbins uses a fun illustration to help put in perspective how large a "trillion dollars" really is.

If you had a million seconds to do something, would you consider that to be a long time?

Well, it turns out that a million seconds is only about 12 days.
What about a billion seconds? Is that a long period of time?
Well, yes, a billion seconds is close to 32 years. So that is definitely a lot longer than a million seconds.

What about a trillion seconds?
How long do you think that is?
Well, a trillion seconds is about 31,688 years.

So when we talk about how the U.S. government is stealing more than a trillion dollars from future generations every single year, we are talking about an absolutely massive amount of money.

The Tony Robbins video about the national debt crisis posted below has started to go viral all over the Internet. If you have not seen it yet, I definitely recommend taking a few minutes to watch it....

So why are our politicians not doing anything about the U.S. debt crisis?

Well, it is because most of them value getting elected over and over again above doing what is right for future generations.

For the past four decades, the United States has been enjoying a 15 trillion dollar party. All of this borrowed money has enabled us to live far, far beyond our means.

If our politicians voted to severely cut spending or to raise taxes dramatically at this point, our economy would suddenly readjust to a more realistic standard of living. But that would be extremely painful and most Americans voters would be absolutely furious. They would demand that someone "fix" the economy immediately. But the truth is that what we have been enjoying all these years has not been real. It has been bought with trillions of dollars stolen from future generations. But most of our politicians just want to keep the party rolling as long as humanly possible so that they can keep getting voted back into office.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1334502720.php

I posted This On Sunday In Case You Missed It...

By Graham Summers

Starting back in August, I began suggesting that we were approaching a Systemic Crisis/ Crash scenario in the markets.

The technical and fundamentals both supported this forecast, but I completely underestimated the degree to which the Central Banks and EU would attempt to prop up the market.

At that time, I thought it likely we’d see a Crash, which would then be met with another round of stimulus, which would push the economy temporarily into the green. It seemed the most logical outcome given that we were heading into an election year with a President whose ratings were at record lows.

Instead, the Federal Reserve, particularly those Fed Presidents from Financial Centers (Charles Evans of Chicago and Bill Dudley of New York) began a coordinated campaign of verbal intervention, hinting that more easing or QE was just around the corner.

These verbal interventions coincided with coordinated monetary interventions between the Federal Reserve and other world Central Banks: first on September 15 2011 and again on November 30 2011.

The effects of both coordinated moves were short-lived in terms of equity prices, but they did send a message that the Central Banks were willing to intervene in a big way to maintain the financial system. This in turn helped to ease interbank liquidity problems in Europe (more on this in a moment) and maintain the belief that the Fed backstop or “Bernanke Put” was still in effect.

Another issue that served to push the markets higher was European leaders’ decision to go “all in” on the EU –bail out project. I’ve tracked those developments closely in previous articles.

Regarding this factor, I also underestimated the extent to which leaders would push to hold things together. After all, Greece had already received bailouts in excess of 150% of its GDP and still posted a GDP loss of 6.8% in 2011. It’s hard to believe they’d want to accept more austerity measures and more debt.

Moreover, political tensions between Greece and Germany had reached the point that Greeks were openly comparing German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble as Nazis while the Germans referred to Greece as a “bottomless hole” into which money was being tossed.

Looking back on it, the clear reality was that Germany wanted to force Greece out of the EU but didn’t want to do it explicitly: instead they opted to offer Greece aid provided Greece accepted austerity measures so onerous that there was no chance Greece would go for it.

Well, Greece surprised many, including myself, and went for it. And so the EU experiment continues to exist today. However, before the end of this issue I will make it clear precisely why this will not be the case for much longer and why we are on the verge of a systemic collapse in Europe.

For starters, unemployment in Greece as a whole is now over 20%. For Greek youth (aged 15-24) it’s over 50%. The country is in nothing short of a Depression.
Indeed, Greece has now experienced five straight years of contraction bringing the total contraction of Greece’s GDP to 17%. To provide some historical perspective here, when Argentina collapsed in 2001 its total GDP collapse was 20% and this was accompanied by full-scale defaults as well as systemic collapse and open riots.

With new austerity measures now in place there is little doubt Greece will see a GDP contraction of 20%, if not more. I expect we’ll see other “Argentina-esque” developments in the country as well. Put mildly, the Greek issue is not resolved.

The one thing that would stop me here would be if Greece staged a full-scale default. While the political leaders and others view a total default as a nightmare (and it would be for Greek pensions, retirees, and many EU banks), it is only a total default that could possibly solve Greece’s debt problems and allow it to return to growth.

Defaults are akin to forest fires; they wipe out all the dead wood and set the stage for a new period of growth. We’ve just witnessed this in Iceland, which did the following between 2008 and 2011:

 

1. Had its banks default on $85 billion in debt (the country’s GDP is just $13 billion). Jailed the bankers responsible for committing fraud during the bubble.
2. Gave Icelandic citizens debt forgiveness equal to 13% of GD.

Kno's Comments: Read On If You Are Interested...

Buffett Rule Hypocrisy


April 16, 2012, at 9:46 am
by Greg Hunter in the category USAWatchdog.com


By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Dear CIGAs,
It looks like President Barack Obama is making the tax proposal called the Buffett Rule (also known as the “Paying a Fair Share Act”) into a wedge issue. This weekend, the President was pushing the tax proposal, named after billionaire Warren Buffett, as a way to reduce the deficit. The pending legislation says anyone making more than $1 million a year should pay no less than 30% federal tax. Democrats are going to try to vote on the Buffett Rule this week, but it probably will not get very far in the Senate, and it is a non-starter in the Republican controlled House.

The reason why I say this is merely a “wedge issue” is because it will not do much to reduce the $15.6 trillion deficit. It will set up another totally false narrative that will not help the country. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, which provides the official Congressional analysis of tax legislation, the Buffett Rule will only raise $4.7 billion a year over the next ten years. Mr. Buffett’s plan is nothing more than a proverbial drop in the bucket. Counting TARP, QE 1, QE 2 and the $16.1 trillion the Federal Reserve pumped out after the 2008 meltdown, we are well on our way to the $23.7 trillion Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, predicted the crisis would cost back in 2009. But, even that number, as big as it is, does not tell a complete story, and Mr. Buffett knows it.

The banks are continually being bailed out in many backdoor ways, and to be fair, neither party will say a word about it. The recent $25 billion “Robo signing/foreclosure fruad” settelement was a form of a bank bailout. Foreign bank bailouts are also American bank bailouts in disguise. Take Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, for instance. Taxpayers now own a 100% stake in these two failed mortgage giants. Last year, Fannie and Freddie either forgave or bought a total of nearly $200 billion in mortgage debt liability from Bank of America–alone. (I wrote about this before.) Let that sink in, and then consider Warren Buffet invested $5 billion, last year, into B of A at $7.14 a share. Friday, the stock price closed at $8.63 a share. If Buffett sold B of A today, he’d make about $750 million by my calculation. Give me a break! Would Mr. Buffett have invested the money into B of A if he knew the bailout party would stop? I think not. Why doesn’t Buffett talk about one of the real problems facing America and that is the continuing bailouts for billionaires! These bailouts have greatly contributed to the ballooning $15.6 trillion U.S. deficit. Now, there is talk of committing another $100 billion to Fannie and Freddie to add to the $170 billion already blown in backdoor banker bailouts. (Click here for more on that story.)
More…

What A Joke... Kno's Comments ... Good Nite !!!

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...-eyes-on-spain

So the backdrop points to ongoing European and financial/economic crisis. There will be enormous pressure on the ECB to bolster faltering debt markets. There will be more finger pointing at the Bundesbank and German politicians. There will be only louder calls for a larger “firewall,” along with joint Eurobonds, special purpose vehicles and other sophisticated structures that would amount to risk-sharing by all member states. Basically, it still boils down to the marketplace expecting Germany to back the debt of weak euro zone member countries. And my thesis has been that the farther the world proceeds down the path of faltering Credit Bubbles the more determined the Germans will be to protect their own. If one looks at the world through the prism of a historic global Credit Bubble, with the epicenter in an increasingly fragile U.S., why should anyone fault the Germans for safeguarding the interests of their citizens and institutions?

No discussion of current Credit Bubble Dynamics would be complete without touching upon China. China’s March bank lending data was out this week and such data continues to amaze. New lending surpassed 1.01 Trillion yuan, or $160bn, the strongest loan growth since January 2011 (1.04 TN). Lending was up 40% from February and was fully 25% above the consensus estimate (according to Bloomberg). Analysts were quick to point to the impact of policy loosening. As an analyst of Credit, I’m contemplating how a Credit system in the midst of a significant housing slowdown can nonetheless extend $160bn of loans in a single month.

From Bloomberg: “Aggregate financing, a measure of funding that includes bank lending, bond and stock sales, was 3.88 trillion yuan in the first quarter, down 8% from the same period last year.” On an annualized basis, that’s almost $2.5 TN of system Credit. I have posited the thesis that China succumbed to the “terminal phase” of Credit Bubble excess. System Credit has exploded since policymakers imposed the massive post-2008 crisis stimulus package. I am familiar with the bullish “soft landing” view, yet such a scenario is basically impossible from the perspective of a historic Credit Bubble. I continue to expect Chinese policymakers to tinker and loosen, yet I also anticipate that they will have an increasingly difficult time managing an unwieldy Credit system and maladjusted economic structure. My instincts tell me that we need to follow developments in China with even greater diligence.

The world is convinced that the Fed will do everything to ensure ongoing liquidity abundance and decent U.S. economic activity. This guarantees unrelenting massive trade deficits and resulting global liquidity abundance. The world is similarly convinced that China will do everything to ensure ongoing strong domestic growth, providing steadfast global demand for everything real and financial. Much of the world believes that Europe’s (debtor/creditor) mess can be largely ignored so long as the world’s key symbiotic debtor (US) and creditor (China) relationship is maintained. And it is rather obvious why folks are complacent and embracing risk.

Yet when one takes a step back and contemplates the backdrop, there is overwhelming support for the analysis of troubling parallels between Greece and U.S. subprime: the first cracks in respective historic Bubbles. And once the unavoidable downside of the takes hold, there’s little policymakers can do but to postpone (and exacerbate) the inevitable. Federal Reserve rate cuts in ’07 and early-2008 only made things worse. ZIRP, QE1, QE2, SMP, EFSF, ESM, LTRO – worse. From my framework, Greece was the catalyst for the bursting of the global government finance Bubble – global not just European. It wasn’t going to stop with Greece, Portugal or Ireland. It won’t end in Spain or Italy. And while it was all fun and games while it lasted, the LTRO spike to the punchbowl has the world again vulnerable to the hangover blues.

And So It Goes...

“To talk about a bailout for Spain at the moment makes no sense. Spain is not going to be rescued. It’s not possible to rescue Spain. There’s no intention to, it’s not necessary and therefore it’s not going to be rescued.” Spanish Prime Minister Marino Rajoy, April 12, 2012

The respite from the European debt crisis has run its course, and with the return of market stress comes a ratcheting up of vitriol directed at the Germans. I find it all worrying. For a moment today I tried to take comfort from a UK Telegraph headline that scrolled by on the Bloomberg screen: “Worrying Is Good for You and Reflects Higher IQ.” I’m adding this to my list of notions that sound appealing and I only wish were true.

By this point in the ongoing global Credit crisis, it should be clear that the real villain is the anchorless global Credit “system” devoid of anything, any mechanism, or any sound money and Credit principles that might help to restrain excess. Self-adjustment and automatic self-correcting mechanisms would be invaluable. Instead, our central bank, steward of the world’s so-called “reserve currency,” indicates its willingness to become even more “activist” - and global finance spirals only further out of control. For decades now, global Credit has been allowed to expand unchecked – with no limit to either the quantity or quality of debt instruments. Perhaps the timing and sequencing of various crises was unknowable, though the end results were for the most part predictable.
Over the years I’ve been a fan of the euro. I’m saddened that my and others’ hopes for a sustainable sound currency failed to materialize. It is surely not going to be part of any solution to a rudderless global monetary system but instead appears poised to become its biggest casualty yet. But to blame Europe’s travails on the Bundesbank is really stretching the bounds of reasonableness – and sound analysis.

In hindsight, a common European currency was not a good idea. Yet European monetary integration is in jeopardy today because for too many years the dysfunctional global marketplace mispriced finance. Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and others for too long had access to unlimited low-cost borrowings (along the lines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the U.S. Treasury). This prolonged mispricing of Credit led to financial and economic imbalances and deep structural maladjustment, just as one would have expected analyzing the situation from an “Austrian” (or, even, German) economic perspective. I often recall the words of wisdom from the great economist, Dr. Kurt Richebacher: “The only cure for a Bubble is to not allow it to develop.”

The nineties saw Credit crises ravage Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and many others. The developing economies were the “periphery” for that Credit crisis period. Their problems were blamed on ill-advised policies, “currency pegs,” borrowing/spending excesses and other domestic shortcomings. Our and other developed world policymakers had complete understanding as to the causes of various crises, and the IMF delivered the harsh medicine. No one in power wanted to deal with the root of the problem – a dysfunctional global monetary apparatus. No one was willing to address the proliferation of leveraged speculation and derivatives that was integral to distorted market pricing, gross liquidity excesses and attendant systemic fragilities. Indeed, it appeared that officials from key developed countries were content to use the increasingly powerful leveraged players as political expedients and monetary transmission mechanisms.

http://www.finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURUSD&tf=m5

Timeframe: 5 minute | hourly | daily | weeklyhttp://www.finviz.com/gfx/nic2x2.gifhttp://www.finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?...02136934576250

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PipTrapper

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1 min

Soon Coming Up Good Night Now Yes I Am Tired...

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...nancial-crisis