EurAnalysis

Interesting start of the week! Only valid TF for technical analysis is Weekly Candle. Although I would hope for a candle High point of 1.3200 if that happens then most likely we will get an indecission candle for the week and that would mean a fight is still ON, otherwise it is a strong bear with Supports points @ 1.295x, 1.26xx.

suddenly yen very active...btw,short signal - dark cloud

GMT

8:30EUR "EU's Barroso, UN's Ban Speak at Energy Summit in Brussels"
10:00EUR Bank of Italy Releases Feb. Public Finance Supplement
10:00EUR "EU's Barroso, UN's Ban Hold Press Briefing"
10:10NOKNorway T-Bill Auction
10:10EURSlovakia Auctions floating rate Nov 2016 & 4.35% Oct 2025 & Bonds
13:30EUR EU's Van Rompuy Meets UN Secretary General Ban
14:00EUR EU's Rehn Meets New Slovak Finance Minister Kazimir
14:30EUR ECB Calls for Bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
14:30EUR ECB Announces Bond Purchase
15:40EUR "NATO's Rasmussen, Germany's Gauck Brief Brussels Press"
16:00EUR Merkel Holds North-Rhine Westphalia Election Rally: Muenster
16:00USD U.S. Fed to Sell USD8-8.75 Bln Notes
16:30USD U.S. to Sell USD30 Bln 3-Month Bills
16:30USD U.S. to Sell USD28 Bln 6-Month Bills
17:30EUR "ECB's Nowotny, CNB's Singer Speak on Panel in Vienna"
17:30USD "Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Banking and Economy in Lexington, KY"
19:00EUR "EU's Van Rompuy, Germany's Gauck Hold Working Dinner"
20:30USD "Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy in St. Louis"

Good morning all. Typical Monday morning, it's as slow as a dead snail. However, we did manage to break and toast the 1.30 barrier. Woohoo!!!

So what's next? Well as I said it is a typical Monday European morning and you all know by now how much I hate Mondays.

Since the Interbank markets opened last night, price first gaped below the bear flag channel RC-1 and then during Asian session managed to break below the H/S neckline (HS-1) and then the 1.30 barrier. Low today is 1.2993

Now I suspect that at some point either today or tomorrow, price will attempt to retest the broken neckline at around 1.3030/40 area and possibly the broken bear flag rising channel support at around 1.3080/90 area.

On the downside we still have 1.2973 to test. If we manage to break through that before we get to retest the upside, then the next support comes in around 1.2910/20 area.

E/U H4

Today's option expiries at 1400GMT

1.3025
1.3100
1.3115
1.3120
1.3150

The US Dollar Index is still going strong and over the last few sessions has shown its resilience. Staying well within the bounds of the rising channel which started in October 2011, it is looking to target January's high of 82 once more. A break of the March high at 80.75 will confirm the target. Until then there is still some downside risk but any moves down from here should be well supported by the rising trend line currently at 79.3x area. Of significant note is the fact that price broke the falling trend line resistance this morning.

DX D1

We've been stuck in this forever... its been some fun scalping though

great chart PT, appreciate it

http://i39.tinypic.com/eirtbq.jpg

Next item on the menu for today is econ data from the US. This news may set the tone for NY trading today, although I would not count on too much E/U bullishness. If the numbers are bad, that would be USD positive, if the numbers are good, that will paradoxically also be USD positive. Go figure.

At 12:30GMT, we get US retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index.
At 13:00GMT, we get the TIC Long-Term Purchases report.
At 14:00GMT, we get the month on month Business Inventories.

So there you have it. Remember that the best way to trade news is to react to the reaction. Don't rely on your own logic. There is no such thing as logic in the markets. Markets are irrational and they can stay that way much longer than you can remain solvent.

All times listed below are GMT+2

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120416163463/



Daily Report: EUR/USD Pressing 1.3 as Spain Weighs, Yen Broadly Higher

Euro weakens broadly as the week starts and is back pressing 1.3 level against dollar as being weighed down by worry on Spain. As Spanish 10 year yield is climbing back towards the unsustainable level which eventually led to bailout of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, Spanish officials called for more bond purchases by ECB. Nonetheless, recent comments from ECB officials revealed split stance on the issue among policy makers. Markets are also getting a bit more nervous on the issue as Spain will face more tests will the auction of 12-month and 18-month bills tomorrow and, more importantly, auction of 2014 and 2022 bonds on Thursday. All eyes will be on whether Spanish 10 year yield will move away from 6% level this week, and on which direction.

Broad based weakness in Asian equities helped send the Japanese yen higher against other major currencies. BoJ is expected to expand the quantitative easing program last in April but that provided little to halt yen's rebound. Recent weakness in US treasuries is part of the force that dragged down yen crosses in generally, in particular USD/JPY. The weekly close below 2% level in US 10 year yield does open the way for further rally in bonds to push yield back below 1.8%. In addition, revival of talks of QE3 and ECB's non-standard measures, be it SMP or another round of LTRO, added pressures on yen crosses too.

The People’s Bank of China widened the trading range of RMB against USD by +50 bps to 1%. This is viewed as a step further to internationalization of the country’s currency. More importantly, it's a sign that Chinese authority is viewing the current level of Yuan as near to equilibrium and yuan's appreciate could now slow ahead. US treasury said that the progress to date is "welcomed" but emphasized that "the process of correcting the misalignment of China's exchange rate remains incomplete, and further progress is needed".

On the data front, Swiss PPI, Eurozone trade balance will be the main focus in European session. From US, a number of important economic data will be released including empire state manufacturing, retail sales, TIC capital flow business inventories and NAHB housing market index.

Top Stories
Fears of Spanish bailout rise as bond yields top 6%. Spanish 10-year bond yields surged past 6% for the first time since December, and the first time since the ECB's two three-year liquidity operations, raising fears the country might need a bailout. EU officials are due to travel to Washington this week looking for a larger IMF war chest, although while Japan might offer $60B, the U.S. has until now insisted that the EU can use its own resources. SA author Robert Broens explains how Spain continues to affect global markets. (Sources: Kyodo, Bloomberg)

Top Equities News
SA Interview: Shaping the case for Kinder Morgan. "With the largest natural gas system in the U.S.," Kinder Morgan is in "a great position to take advantage" of the increased demand that will come from rock-bottom prices, company President C. Park Shaper told Seeking Alpha in an interview. SA author Simon Lack of SL Advisors, who took part in the interview, believes Kinder Morgan's (KMP) plan to pay $5.19 to unit holders in 2012 makes its 6.3% forward yield look competitive and offers "the potential for a double digit total return."
Goldman cuts stake in ICBC in $2.3B deal. Goldman Sachs (GS) has sold 3.55B shares in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China to Temasek for $2.3B, taking Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund deeper into China's banking industry. Goldman, though, has no plans for another share sale in the near future, sources say. (Source: WSJ)
Credit Suisse may slash 5,000 jobs. Credit Suisse (CS) could reportedly announce it's cutting 5,000 positions at its investment bank when it reports Q1 results next week. Credit Suisse's I-bank, at nearly 21,000 bankers, is "simply completely oversized," sources say, and shareholders have been applying pressure to cut costs. (Source: Sonntag)
Falcone looks to Icahn as white knight. Hedge fund manager Phil Falcone hopes an equity investment from Carl Icahn could help save beleaguered Lightsquared. Icahn - one of the creditors who gave the wireless broadband start-up until the end of the month to turn around before putting it into technical default - was recently spotted breaking bread with Falcone in New York. (Source: Bloomberg)
Stratasys and Object to merge in $1.4B deal. Stratasys (SSYS) has agreed to merge with privately-held Object in an all-stock transaction with a total equity value of $1.4B. The combined 3D printer company plans to operate under the Stratasys name and have dual headquarters in Israel and Minnesota.
Page, Ellison set to testify as Google vs. Oracle begins. Jury selection in the trial over whether Google (GOOG) violated Oracle's (ORCL) Java patents is set to take place today. Oracle has somewhat scaled back its ambitions: having demanded $6.1B in damages for seven patents and copyright claims, it's now seeking $1B for two; Google says damages should be below $100M. Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and Google counterpart Larry Page are listed on Oracle's list of possible witnesses. (Source: Reuters)
ING sets auction in motion for Asia ops. ING (ING) has set a late-May deadline for suitors to submit first-round bids for its Asian life insurance business, which could bring in over $6.5B, Reuters reports.
TI to join Nasdaq 100. Texas Instruments (TXN) will replace First Solar (FSLR) in the Nasdaq 100, effective April 23.
Dutch want bankers to sign oath like doctors. The Dutch have come up with an interesting way to try to "restore the moral authority" of their financial sector: they're going to make bankers and insurers pledge an oath to put the interests of their clients first. The oath will come into force in January 2013, just after Goldman Sachs (GS) will apparently open an office in the country. (Source: Bloomberg)

Top Economic & Other News
Analysts unimpressed by wider yuan trading band. The yuan fell slightly against the dollar after China widened the renminbi's trading band to 1% from 0.5% - presumably not what the Treasury had in mind when it heard the news on Saturday. Currency analysts collectively yawned at Beijing's move, which, said strategist Marc Chandler, is "Machiavellian," as "China is giving up something that it is not really using." SA author Sammy Pollack explains how to short China with ETFs. (Source: MarketWatch)
Germany helps eurozone return to surplus. The eurozone swung to a trade surplus of €2.8B in February after a revised €7.9B deficit in January. The data is broadly in line with expectations. Eurozone trade was supported by continued strong exports from Germany. (Source: Eurostat)

Three Breakfast Reads
Best Buy: New CEO Has A Daunting Task Ahead
Analyzing Bank Exposure To The GIIPS
9 IPOs Scheduled For This Week
For more informed opinion and analysis, go to seekingalpha.com.

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan -1.7%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China -0.1%. India +0.3%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris +1.0%. Frankfurt +0.7%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.4%. S&P +0.35%. Nasdaq +0.3%. Crude -0.2% to $102.58. Gold -0.6% to $1650.40.

Monday's economic calendar:
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
3:30 PM Fed's Bullard: 'U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy'

More:

1. Feedback or story tip? Send message to editor Yigal Grayeff »
2. Wall Street Breakfast is sent out by email for free -- Get it now »
3. Read the comments on today's news »

Retails sales numbers are impressive at 0.8% but Manufacturing Index is a dismal disappointment at 6.6

It's a bit hard to call right now but I think the retail sales number will be encouraging for equities. We'll have to wait till NY opening bell to find out for sure.

Will we see the E/U at 1.26xx this month???

Italy is appx. 15% of EU's GDP and Spain appx. 10% EU's GDP.

I don't see Spanish economy bad - only high Employment is fault.
Italy is another thing, but current technocrat government is doing good job.

Over all - 1.26 is not said at all, though signs are in the air.

Mostly media is bashing both countries which is causing panic reactions on those figures, but let's face it - they are over all risky, but excellent investments as long as they carry high yields and ECB and EFSF is giving "guarantees" to bonds.

So.... Don't eat the beef before you kill the bull.

Yes absolutely, but I do like it blue

I am looking for two possible scenarios. After break 1.30 we go to return to 1.31, 1.32 dont know, but we need to see if that move is a impulse or a corrective, so in that way we will know where we go...

I think it's a compulsive move

bad weather...bad internet

Just as I stated. Compulsive. It had to happen. European banks are getting nervous and selling off foreign assets to boost their liquidity, most likely the ones in emerging economies. So here is how it works.

There will be no LTRO3 and the banks are getting prepared for the next liquidity crunch. So, their assets in Brazil, China, India and/or Russia (or perhaps all of them) get sold off for US Dollars. Those transactions boost the USD against all currencies. Then, when the time is right, those USDs are repatriated back to the European banks and converted to EURs.

Now that that's done, after possibly a little more upside to maybe 1.3160/5 or so, it will be time to rinse and repeat.

Kind of explains the Cha Cha action we've been seeing for the last few weeks.

i am short eu but presently i am in deep red {about 5%}as avg down the position.i was anticipating this move but i think i should sit in front of mirror repeating the mantra 'when everyone looking one way then go other way'.
its going to be hard work but try to bail out the position tonight with possibly small loss.any advise regarding how to take the loss will be welcome.

USDX 4H