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  • #1,301
  • Apr 13, 2012 12:28am Apr 13, 2012 12:28am
NU unfortunately hit our entry during Asia.
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  • #1,302
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:06am Apr 13, 2012 5:06am
GU hit my entry and target while I was working.... (I live in Korea)
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  • #1,303
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:39am Apr 13, 2012 6:39am
Quoting Balhana
GU hit my entry and target while I was working.... (I live in Korea)
  • #1,304
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:57am Apr 13, 2012 6:57am
I think we have one more chance to short GU if price comes to 1.6005-6015. A sell pending order at 1.6010. The trendline as well as BRN (1.6000) may help.
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  • #1,305
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:01am Apr 13, 2012 7:01am
Quoting lovejoy80
Thanks, LJ. Sometimes it's better not to see the screen.
  • #1,306
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:12am Apr 13, 2012 7:12am
LJ, what do you think about going long at 1.3135? (EU 4H)
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  • #1,307
  • Apr 13, 2012 9:22am Apr 13, 2012 9:22am
Quoting Balhana
LJ, what do you think about going long at 1.3135? (EU 4H)
I didn't enter because it looked like a 4H bear-flag. When in doubt, stay out!
  • #1,308
  • Apr 14, 2012 3:48am Apr 14, 2012 3:48am
Quoting Balhana
LJ, what do you think about going long at 1.3135? (EU 4H)
Apologies didn't see your post. Looking at the setup on the 1HR TF it was certainly tradable. Price hitting a daily S/R level with 61% fib confluence. It's also an FTB, but not an ideal one because of the big immediate retest we had following the breakout.

But you can see price went to the obvious FLR.
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  • #1,309
  • Apr 14, 2012 4:07am Apr 14, 2012 4:07am
As it was a quiet Friday yesterday we were looking for LTF S/D zones where we have had very significant S/D imbalance previously and are now waiting for the FTB. Between us in the Trading Room we identified the following three.

- EAUD went straight to it's FLR.
- AU went down to an FTB setup at a 1HR S/R level (which then went to it's own FLR).
- UCAD went parabolic.
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  • #1,310
  • Apr 14, 2012 4:18am Apr 14, 2012 4:18am
A couple of interesting FTB's on Silver and Gold yesterday. Technically Silver worked out and Gold didn't in that Silver went to it's FLR (although at first look it appears to be a minor FLR) and Gold didn't react at all at it's FTB to the 1660 level.

FTB's to S/R levels are good setups, but a higher quality setup for me is an FTB to an S/R level that also has an S/D zone.

Take a look at where Gold did react - at the source of the S/D imbalance which causes the move up and the breakout of the S/R level.
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  • #1,311
  • Apr 14, 2012 4:33am Apr 14, 2012 4:33am
Price action trading is being able to predict where price will be going and why a lot more often than not on any pair on any timeframe.

The chart below is a something I annotated quickly yesterday to explain, using price action methods only what price was doing, why and how you could have predicted majority of the price movements during this time period.

If I were to sum up the two main things wrong with retail price action traders it would be:

1) a lack of fundamental knowledge of why price moves like it does and thus a lack of viable trading strategies and

2) a misplaced view that being picky and waiting for the best A+ setups is the most efficient way to be trading.


To be a good price action trader is to be able to predict what price is likely to do next and why in the majority of situations across any timeframe...but in the retail space the trend is to be ultra picky, wait for price to come to a chosen location, then wait for some bar pattern to form and then consider trading it with an illogical SL - this is the fundamental reason IMO why price action traders in the retail space struggle to consistently take good returns from the market.
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  • #1,312
  • Apr 14, 2012 6:42am Apr 14, 2012 6:42am
Quoting lovejoy80
Price action trading is being able to predict where price will be going and why a lot more often than not on any pair on any timeframe.

The chart below is a something I annotated quickly yesterday to explain, using price action methods only what price was doing, why and how you could have predicted majority of the price movements during this time period.

If I were to sum up the two main things wrong with retail price action traders it would be:

1) a lack of fundamental knowledge of why price moves like it does and thus a lack of viable trading...
Great Post!!!

BTW, it seems to me that your method has been partly influenced by not only J16 but Sam Seiden and BillyRayValentine. I'm a very analytical person just like you, so I can say that there is something new in your method that I have never seen from other traders.

Again, thanks for the great post. Keep up the good work!!

Sang
  • #1,313
  • Apr 14, 2012 7:05am Apr 14, 2012 7:05am
Quoting lovejoy80
As it was a quiet Friday yesterday we were looking for LTF S/D zones where we have had very significant S/D imbalance previously and are now waiting for the FTB. Between us in the Trading Room we identified the following three.

- EAUD went straight to it's FLR.
- AU went down to an FTB setup at a 1HR S/R level (which then went to it's own FLR).
- UCAD went parabolic.
I was watching the same setup on UC. Please take a look at my analysis on the chart. BTW, where was your FLR, LJ?
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  • #1,314
  • Apr 14, 2012 7:28am Apr 14, 2012 7:28am
Quoting Balhana
I was watching the same setup on UC. Please take a look at my analysis on the chart. BTW, where was your FLR, LJ?
You have the technical FLR marked correctly IMO i.e. the 0.9941 level on the 1HR TF. So the value in the trade to the FLR was certainly not the best and certainly not we would want on our average trade.

In situations like this we have to go searching for other information that can help us form an opinion as to whether price is likely to push through that FLR....there is certainly nothing on UCAD itself to really help us given how choppy and sideways moving this pair - but take a look at S&P and the Dow and that would have provided you with some useful information...
  • #1,315
  • Apr 14, 2012 8:34am Apr 14, 2012 8:34am
Quoting lovejoy80
You have the technical FLR marked correctly IMO i.e. the 0.9941 level on the 1HR TF. So the value in the trade to the FLR was certainly not the best and certainly not we would want on our average trade.

In situations like this we have to go searching for other information that can help us form an opinion as to whether price is likely to push through that FLR....there is certainly nothing on UCAD itself to really help us given how choppy and sideways moving this pair - but take a look at S&P and the Dow and that would have provided you with some...
Hmmm.. S&P and the Dow... Sounds make sense. Thanks a lot. Don't work too hard and enjoy your weekend!!
  • #1,316
  • Apr 14, 2012 8:38am Apr 14, 2012 8:38am
Quoting Balhana
Great Post!!!

BTW, it seems to me that your method has been partly influenced by not only J16 but Sam Seiden and BillyRayValentine. I'm a very analytical person just like you, so I can say that there is something new in your method that I have never seen from other traders.

Again, thanks for the great post. Keep up the good work!!

Sang
Thanks.

Okay, just to add some clarity, the strategies I use in my trading are not mine, I can't claim that I created any of the strategies I use in my trading.

All I do is combine an array of knowledge of:

- supply / demand
- support / resistance
- order-flow dynamics
- bar patterns
- chart patterns
- risk sentiment
- fundamentals
- inter-market correlations
- how novice traders and the traditional retail crowd behave

to take trades day in day out.

That knowledge and strategies arising from that knowledge are nothing new - why, because professional traders all over the world are using this knowledge and similar strategies day in day out. I think the difference is that some of this knowledge is common place in the retail space but most of it is not.

Any price action trader that claims the strategies they use in their trading are original and their own is most likely speaking utter rubbish and probably has some ulterior motive.

I think if you ask any professional trader who had the biggest impact on their trading the answer would most likely be themselves...it is the approach, patience, dedication and perseverance of the trader themselves that is the key as to whether they 'make it' or not in this business.

Never heard of BillyRayValentine? Only came across Sam Seiden very recently but would definitely recommend some his free webinars on FxStreet as a good starting point for identifying and trading with Supply / Demand zones. I don't think it's my place to comment on other commercial services on here.

The biggest jump I made in my trading and the point where I turned the corner was when I started to think less like the retail crowd and more like the professionals do when it comes to price action trading - there is a distinct difference in mindset and approach.
  • #1,317
  • Apr 14, 2012 9:51am Apr 14, 2012 9:51am
Quoting lovejoy80
Thanks.

Okay, just to add some clarity, the strategies I use in my trading are not mine, I can't claim that I created any of the strategies I use in my trading.

All I do is combine an array of knowledge of:

- supply / demand
- support / resistance
- order-flow dynamics
- bar patterns
- chart patterns
- risk sentiment
- fundamentals
- inter-market correlations
- how novice traders and the traditional retail crowd behave

to take trades day in day out.

That knowledge and strategies arising from that knowledge are nothing new - why, because...
I hope that my poor English did not make any misunderstanding here. My trading approach has been influenced to some extent by Sam Seiden and BillyRayValentine (he was an FF member), which simply made me think you might have been too. That's it.

Every trader has his/her own trading method even if they use the same tools (supply/demand, support/resistance, bar patterns, whatever). Just like every student get a different record even if they learn from the same teachers using the same textbooks.

I read almost all of your posts in this thread so you don't need to clarify anything more. I do respect/like your own trading method/approach. That's why I am staying in this thread.
  • #1,318
  • Apr 14, 2012 12:51pm Apr 14, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Thanks.

Okay, just to add some clarity, the strategies I use in my trading are not mine, I can't claim that I created any of the strategies I use in my trading.

All I do is combine an array of knowledge of:

- supply / demand
- support / resistance
- order-flow dynamics
- bar patterns
- chart patterns
- risk sentiment
- fundamentals
- inter-market correlations
- how novice traders and the traditional retail crowd behave

to take trades day in day out.

That knowledge and strategies arising from that knowledge are nothing new...
I(and others) have understood the importance of fundamentals from u Mr. LJ.
until few months back,i use to ignore fundamentals,but looking @ Economic Calendar has become a routine now.
Keep up the good work.
OK DONE↓
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  • #1,319
  • Apr 15, 2012 10:02pm Apr 15, 2012 10:02pm
Hi LJ,
My 1st post in this thread. I've been reading J16 for sometime and recently PIE threads and your combination of both methods interest me. I came across some terms u used which I'm not familar with. Hope u can explain:
-FLR
-FB (is it fibs?)

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1334394413

With ref to a chart of USDCAD u posted recently, may i ask why u drew the dd zone as such and not just a few bars back (to the left), which appears to be the origin of the move up (and also swing pt low in the chart u have). Thanks and looking forward to your great posts.
  • #1,320
  • Apr 16, 2012 4:06am Apr 16, 2012 4:06am
Went long for AU at 1.0315 and moved SL to 1.0320. My target is 1.0350. The major trend at HTF is still down IMO so I do not expect a big gain here.
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