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  • #26,801
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:46am Apr 13, 2012 10:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes, if not today, then most likely next week.

Hmmm, maybe I should not have closed those shorts this morning.
pip trapper,thanks for welcoming me.i thought u have establish a very good position.is there any fundamental reason for closing ur short positons. if i am reading market correctly,in view of fed keeping interest low till 2014,it means only one thing they see the risk to system as equal to or worse than 2007-09 period.that means we are living in risk aversion times hence any move will have more potential favouring stronger dollar than the other way.
the other thing is european banking system going into spasm every few weeks where they r looking for dollar liquidity therby favouring dolllar again.and also if u see cme options there are lot more puts for 1.2500 option expiry in march therby favouring dollar again.again i may be wrong in my asessment.thanks
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #26,802
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:51am Apr 13, 2012 10:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes, if not today, then most likely next week.

Hmmm, maybe I should not have closed those shorts this morning.
Yes, maybe not, I hope my pal Ben will say with his mouth no QE3 to explote the market. My TP 1.293
Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
  • #26,803
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:57am Apr 13, 2012 10:57am
Quoting PipTrapper
Some very decent gains in the equity markets today.
However, so far it is only a correction within a falling channel.
Tomorrow, being Friday, will tell whether or not this is a true reversal.
I guess it wasn't a reversal after all... just as I suspected. It was all hopium as usual.

SP500 H4
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I'm still a bear till I get run over

http://good-wallpapers.com/pictures/..._wallpaper.jpg
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,804
  • Edited 11:32am Apr 13, 2012 11:03am | Edited 11:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
I wouldn't exactly say that.

The market rallied yesterday on hopium of a better than anticipated China GDP which ended coming in under expectations, plus the following points I made earlier today:
Damn! ..Internet connection dropped again!!
Anyway,Yes I agree there's been negative sentiment in the background, eg China figures last night & diverging euro bond spreads, but I was referring specifically to just the time period from approx 12.00 GMT today when the drop from 1.3170 began on no new major negative news releases on the calender...caught me by surprise anyway even though I've been reading your inputs daily which are much appreciated ... I probably just wasn't paying enough attention as usual!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #26,805
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:04am Apr 13, 2012 11:04am
Quoting drzakir123
pip trapper,thanks for welcoming me.i thought u have establish a very good position.is there any fundamental reason for closing ur short positons. if i am reading market correctly,in view of fed keeping interest low till 2014,it means only one thing they see the risk to system as equal to or worse than 2007-09 period.that means we are living in risk aversion times hence any move will have more potential favouring stronger dollar than the other way.
the other thing is european banking system going into spasm every few weeks where they r looking...
I agree with your assesment 100%

For the record, I did not close all my shorts. I only closed a few small shorts in the immediate area for the following reasons.

1. Being a Friday, I wanted to reduce my exposure.

2. Being a nice sunny day, I wanted to go out and enjoy it and some fresh air without worrying about what the market is doing.

3. Being the end of the Passover holidays, more traders/investors will be entering the market next week and may feel a need to adjust some positions thereby possibly causing some wild swings either way.

Anyway, I am still sufficiently net short from 1.34 and I plan on holding that as well as hitting that sell button at every selling opportunity next week and beyond.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,806
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:05am Apr 13, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Luis Carlos
Yes, maybe not, I hope my pal Ben will say with his mouth no QE3 to explote the market. My TP 1.293
Bring it on. My TP is 1.20 or 1.15
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,807
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:10am Apr 13, 2012 11:10am
Quoting CommercialB
Damn! ..Internet connection dropped again!!
Anyway,Yes I agree there's been negative sentiment in the background, eg China figures last night & diverging euro bond spreads, but I was referring specifically to just the time period from approx 1 pm GMT today when the drop from 1.3170 began on no new major negative news releases on the calender...caught me by surprise anyway even though I've been reading your inputs daily which are much appreciated ... I probably just wasn't paying enough attention as usual!
Dudley spoke today at 1200 GMT. Perhaps he said something hawkish. I wouldn't know as I was out enjoying the nice weather.

However, at 1230GMT (When the price really started accelerating downward), the US released the CPI data and it come in higher than expected. That is definitely dollar bullish as it reduces the chances of further easing by the Fed and also might force them to tighten earlier than late 2014.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,808
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:22am Apr 13, 2012 11:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
Dudley spoke today at 1200 GMT. Perhaps he said something hawkish. I wouldn't know as I was out enjoying the nice weather.

However, at 1230GMT (When the price really started accelerating downward), the US released the CPI data and it come in higher than expected. That is definitely dollar bullish as it reduces the chances of further easing by the Fed and also might force them to tighten earlier than late 2014.
Thanks, wasn't attributing any great significance to it at the time ... though it's hard to know with so many butterflies flapping their wings all over the place!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #26,809
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:40am Apr 13, 2012 11:40am
Quoting knoholygrail

1. I love to help and teach people things with no hidden agenda.
That why I reply to your post.

Quote
2. On the weekend I do my main research and post some of what I discover here.....I read hundreds of articles each week and I see all different opinions on these matters....Most of the research comes from very knowledgeable people and might be ....Please post any articles you think make a point other than mine and others

Look, I wasn't trying to get personal. As you prolly do the same in FF, I don't even bother reading and even worse replying when I see "hairdresser magazine" copy/paste opinions in the forums. I like discussing markets and economics and I do think your posts have good points and they were pointing to proper relevant sources. However, my only point was (and I insist) in the point below...

Quote
3. I always try to look for a balance and try very hard to keep an objective opinion.

From a strictly economics/trading & markets your last post IMO didn't look balance or "healthy" as the implications of your arguments are far beyond from the "mean". As you know and generalizing, is like in trading: good and consistent traders are the ones that bet on the return to the mean while most [not all] losers and gamblers bet on breaking the extremes.

IMO, the end of free markets and implosion of the financial world fall in the latter ....

Quote
4. Sometimes images are worth a thousand words

And more often than not (especially in main stream media) an image can cut all the context from it....

Quote
There can be no question about the problems in front of the world because of the destruction of FREE MARKETS !!!

So only if we put this discussion outside of markets and trading context, we can talk about it and agree or disagree.

I strongly disagree with you in this part because is very complicate to foresee such a big transformation in societies because these are process that take time (long time) and don't have clear specific paths and triggers.

For example, from a political economy perspective, you can't pinpoint a specific "trigger" for the end of "mercantilism" or from a historical perspective "this is the end of middle ages" or "this trigger the renaissance until here" or "the industrial revolution started this exact year", etc, etc

Sure there are facts like "14 of July 1789 is the French Revolution" but what is behind (the implication of the end of monarchy, democracy, economic liberalism etc, etc) any economic or political system change, take generations and they are not perceptible for the ones living in it.

Only history can mark those shifts and that is always ex-post (after the fact) and after a long period of time. We can recognize in the books that ,for example, the end of mercantilism happened because of 1, 2, 3 and around these circumstances, around this PERIOD of time....

Free markets and any other economic system shifts since ever, take time, they evolve, they adapt, they transform, they succeed, they die, they recover, they become irrelevant..... some of them serve as base for the "new" system, some other just vanish...

Destruction of free markets? implosion of the whole financial world? end of all economic market structures? ....well sorry but not in my books...we are just living the consequences of a big economic recession (and we I only refer to the west/rich part of the world as a good chunk of the other side are having a "great time" right now)...

... so no I don't see it. China, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, India, etc are actually pointing that we are living a great transformation in the international free market political and economic structures.

IMO, what we are seeing (actually and prolly more than ever) is markets go first, second and third but the pie is not going to be distribute in the same way as before: 90% for the rich west that "discover" [not really] free markets and the modern financial sector and the crumbs for the rest....

Now we have to compete and accept that there are new players and they have to be treated as equal .....but is always easier to blame the system rather to make changes and start working harder ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #26,810
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:43am Apr 13, 2012 11:43am
Quoting CommercialB
Thanks, wasn't attributing any great significance to it at the time ... though it's hard to know with so many butterflies flapping their wings all over the place!
Very true. In fact, I really can no longer predict with any accuracy how the market will react to headline news for the specific reason that there is so much other stuff going on in the background, not to mention the screwed up sporadic CB interventions and commercial capital flow. I think the biggest of them all is the recent action on Euro Zone banks liquidating foreign assets and repatriating the proceeds back into Euros, which explains why the Euro has not hit $1.25 yet.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,811
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:54am Apr 13, 2012 11:54am
Here's a look-see at my updated charts. They are self-explanatory. Have a great weekend everybody. I'm done for today. I may check back in later but will probably not have much to add other than to comment on any new posts... if any

E/U H1
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,812
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:56am Apr 13, 2012 11:56am
Quoting sisse
IMO, what we are seeing (actually and prolly more than ever) is markets go first, second and third but the pie is not going to be distribute in the same way as before: 90% for the rich west that "discover" [not really] free markets and the modern financial sector and the crumbs for the rest....

Now we have to compete and accept that there are new players and they have to be treated as equal .....but is always easier to blame the system rather to make changes and start working harder ...

sisse
Very well said Sisse

In fact, I have nothing to add because it pretty well sums it up in a nutshell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,813
  • Apr 13, 2012 12:06pm Apr 13, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting sisse
That why I reply to your post.



Look, I wasn't trying to get personal. As you prolly do the same in FF, I don't even bother reading and even worse replying when I see "hairdresser magazine" copy/paste opinions in the forums. I like discussing markets and economics and I do think your posts have good points and they were pointing to proper relevant sources. However, my only point was (and I insist) in the point below...



From a strictly economics/trading & markets your last post IMO didn't look balance or "healthy" as the implications...
weird...
everytime am read Sisse FA Knowledge am feel that you are quite beautiful
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #26,814
  • Edited 1:43pm Apr 13, 2012 12:11pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quite often I am trying to find on my charts “the reason” price stopped & reversed at this point exactly, and sometimes I am stunned where and how the big-boys-traders draw their support and resistance lines.
Today I was scratching my head and wondering why the hell price rejected 50% Fibo, then 61.80 and respected much less important 76,4%
When I took a bigger picture, much bigger, I noticed a confluence of 76 Fibo and support line coming up from January 13th,!!!

My goodness, it was 4 months ago, there was so many other levels to hang on to, but the market picked just this idiotic 76 level
Huh...just something that makes me laugh…

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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #26,815
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:04pm Apr 13, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting sisse
That why I reply to your post.



Look, I wasn't trying to get personal. As you prolly do the same in FF, I don't even bother reading and even worse replying when I see "hairdresser magazine" copy/paste opinions in the forums. I like discussing markets and economics and I do think your posts have good points and they were pointing to proper relevant sources. However, my only point was (and I insist) in the point below...



From a strictly economics/trading & markets your last post IMO didn't look balance or "healthy" as the implications...
I have read and noted all your comments.

I am trying to clearly make one major point. We have NEVER been here ever.

What do I mean ?

The FACTS on the Ground...

No Investment Houses Left after Lehman went. All large holding companies and banks now. NEVER has the ECB and FED done what they have since 2008.

THERE IS NO WAY OUT !!!

Will the collapse come this year ? Will it come in 2013 ?

That I do not know and no human does. The chances of a Black Swan Event is better than 50/50

Look at the Middle East in the last year. Look at Europe now. The USA is actually in worse shape.

We only have History Repeating itself.

It always happens.

My position is clear and I stand by it. Let us watch things unfold. I consider myself a realist and my research thanks to those I follow based on their track record over the last 13 years and my own conclusions allows me to have a confort level that is very high.

Look at the Balance Sheet of the FED and the ECB.

INCREDIBLE GRIDLOCK in the USA...

Have a great weeken and thanks for sharing your opinion.

We will let the Future decide matters.

WE DO NOT HAVE FREE MARKETS and that is why this time it is different.

Finally to make it even worse there is a college professor in charge whose track record is horrible.

His Name Is Ben Bernake "THE MONEY PRINTER"
  • #26,816
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:10pm Apr 13, 2012 7:10pm

China - Sermon

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/sermon.jpg





Oh thank the Lord – more good news. China’s GDP is suck-U-lent…as in craptacular…which is not so good for the average-Joe, but when has Fraud Street cared about the “average Joe?” Heck, the “average Joe” is not even a “Muppet” to the likes of Golden Slacks; he’s the gum under the shoe of the Muppet’s - driver’s - nanny.

Why is the poor Chinese GDP data “good” news? It should be obvious by now; all bad news, whether in the US, Europe, Japan, or China is good gossip: QE3 is coming!

All praise the central planners – for it is right to give them thanks and praise. Hallelujah!

Yes sir – more counterfeit cash is coming into the system any day now. How will this benefit you? It won’t, by design. The banking mafia, however, will benefit first and mightily – by design.

Well my children…China’s GDP isn’t so good as I said above. Fraud Street was expecting another centrally planned (read: bull$#*t lie) number, just like what emanates from the BLS in the USA. If it was bad, we were told, there would be hell to pay.

The central planners heard Fraud Street loud and clear and acted early. QE3, it was said, is a guarantee. Moreover, the European situation has gone from bad to worse, which is a perfect recipe for more fake money, pardon – “liquidity.”

  1. CHINA 1Q GDP GROWS 8.1% ON YEAR, DOWN FROM 8.9% IN Q4; EXPECTED 8.4%, and whispered at 9.0%
  2. CHINA'S MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 11.9% FROM YEAR EARLIER
  3. CHINA STATISTICS BUREAU SAYS PROBLEMS REMAIN IN THE ECONOMY
  4. CHINA 1Q RETAIL SALES RISE 14.8% VS EST. 14.8%
  5. NBS: CHINA STILL FACES UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION
  6. NBS: CHINA FACES DIFFICULTY STABILIZING EXPORTS
  7. NBS: CHINA STILL FACES UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION



The market is not afraid of this news of course. Why? Well, yesterday’s statement says it all: “The Fed constantly says that there is no risk in these arrangements and that it’s not a big deal overall. What Ben Bernanke never says, however, is that the swap arrangements are necessary because of the terrible business decisions of European banksters. Without the largess of the US Fed, the European banks fail and we just can’t have a ‘free market’ – ever. Therefore, Ben Bernanke continues to support crony capitalism, debasing the US dollar, and bailouts for all (of the well connected).”

In other words, Ben Bernanke will support China if necessary. Oh sure, the idea is beyond laughable, but what does it matter anyway; the entire globe’s financial system is a putrid fish pile of guts.



What does another fish head (China) matter to the fisherman (The Bernank). He only sees the next bailout, not the pile of “bailouts.”

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”




Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.




[email protected]



Kno's Comments: I cannot objectively see anything untrue in the comments of Larry Levin and many others. That is it for tonight.

Have a great weekend everyone.

  • #26,817
  • Apr 13, 2012 9:03pm Apr 13, 2012 9:03pm
Quick question, i been following this thread for less than a month, just a general question to the great minded traders here, how long did you take to get 'in the zone' with the market? I am learning, still learning and would love to get insights on successful traders. Looks like many here have great insight.
  • #26,818
  • Apr 14, 2012 3:20am Apr 14, 2012 3:20am
Quoting hunter101
Quick question, i been following this thread for less than a month, just a general question to the great minded traders here, how long did you take to get 'in the zone' with the market? I am learning, still learning and would love to get insights on successful traders. Looks like many here have great insight.
First of all, your signature line says it all.

There is no absolute answer to your question. Yes it takes time and the more time you spend learning, the quicker things will progress for you. In fact, the day you stop learning is the day you give up on the business.

I've been doing this for just over 10 years now and I still learn something new every day. There is so much to learn and that is what I love about this business.

So my advice to you is to analyse everything. What you don't understand, ask. What you do understand, scrutinize. Keep doing that and the day will come where a light will turn on and you will know that you are well on your way to success.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,819
  • Apr 14, 2012 3:36am Apr 14, 2012 3:36am
This week's COT report from the CFTC

(Non-Commercial)


EUR shorts 101K vs 79K prior


CAD longs 28K vs 29K prior
CHF shorts 9.9K vs 15K prior
GBP shorts 19K vs 8.8K prior
JPY shorts 66K vs 65K prior
NZD longs 7.2K vs 6.1K prior
AUD longs 99K vs 49K prior
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #26,820
  • Apr 14, 2012 3:52am Apr 14, 2012 3:52am
Market Week Wrap-up

- Rollercoaster trading made for highly volatile markets this week. Monday was relatively quiet, with some Asian and all European markets closed for holidays, but the big unwind seen last week continued apace on Tuesday as European traders got their first chance to sell in the cash market following last Friday's disappointing US payrolls report. With the Spanish government working overtime to convince its European partners that it would be able to deliver a 3% deficit-to-GDP ratio in 2013 and control the budget excesses of its profligate regions, the bond vigilantes returned and briefly pushed yields on Spain's 10-year debt above 6%. Italian yields were also elevated after a poor bill auction. Risk-off trading knocked over European indices and the DJIA fell more than 200 points on Tuesday. The DJIA rose 180 points on Thursday, thanks in part to rumors of a very strong preliminary Q1 GDP reading out of China (the whisper number suggested +9%, well ahead of the +8.5% estimates). The reported Chinese GDP figure turned out to be a mere +8.1%, helping to drive another 100-point decline in the DJIA on Friday morning (although the index perked up a bit through the afternoon). Hard commodities, already hammered after last week's softness, were crushed by the bad news from China, with copper dropping out of the range seen since mid January to test three-month lows around $3.60. Natural gas futures keep plumbing the depths, dropping below the $2 handle for the first time in a decade. Alcoa rang in the March earnings season on Tuesday evening with excellent results, although the other two big names reporting later in the week, Google and JP Morgan, did not do enough to impress investors. For the week the DJIA fell 1.6%, the S&P500 declined 2%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%.

- JP Morgan's headline earnings and revenue numbers topped consensus estimates. However, earnings were down 3% on a y/y basis, and only exceeded estimates thanks to a big $1.1B benefit stemming from the Washington Mutual bankruptcy settlement. Earnings also continue to be padded by reserve releases, and executives warned that there would not be substantially more releases in the near future. Revenues were helped by a stronger showing at the investment banking unit, although fixed income and equity market revenue was down 10% on a y/y basis. CEO Dimon warned that the bank expects to see elevated costs and losses associated with mortgage-related issues for a while longer. Results from Wells Fargo were slightly higher than expected. Wells highlighted strengths in its mortgage business, where applications rose sharply in the quarter on a sequential basis even as the rate of decline in loan-loss provisions has slowed. Wells Fargo's CEO said the US is nearing a tipping point in the housing market and the mortgage business is "very good."

- Google more or less met expectations in its Q1, although analyst were troubled to see steeper declines in the firm's key cost-per-click metric, even as the number of paid clicks grows furiously. Then there is the new stock structure, with the creation of a non-voting Class C stock class, which will be given to existing Class A and Class B shareholders as a dividend. The move is effectively a 2-for-1 stock split, allowing the founders to retain super majority voting power; most investors probably would have preferred a dividend. CEO Paige defended Google+, boasting that the social service now has over 170M members and is on the "right track", without providing deeper activity metrics asked for by analysts.

- FX trading was thin on Monday with some Asia markets closed and Europe off for the Easter holiday. Then the stock market slide on Tuesday and the rebound on Wednesday and Thursday whipped FX markets around, although most major pairs were contained within the ranges seen over the course of the last two months. The euro made steady gains through the week against the dollar, despite background concerns about Spain, until Thursday afternoon. EUR/USD topped out around 1.3210 at that time, and then gave up nearly all of its weekly gains and dropped to 1.3070.

- The return of stress in the euro zone periphery was blamed in part by much higher yields demanded by investors at an Italian auction of 3- and 5-month bills on Wednesday. The same day, a German auction of 10-year bunds was 'technically uncovered,' after the bid-to-cover ratio fell below the level seen in the last auction in the series. The spread between yields on the Spanish and German 10-year bonds highlighted investor nervousness, broadening out to 400 bps, the widest spread since last November. The ECB's Coeure reminded markets that the ECB's SMP bond buying program still exists, even though it has been little used in recent weeks. Later the ECB's Knot insisted that the ECB is very far from making more purchases under the SMP bond program and went as far as to say he hoped the ECB never had to purchase government debt ever again.

- A week-long barrage of economic data out of China was mixed, with upbeat trade, lending and inflation data early on overshadowed by a disappointing Q1 GDP on Friday. Monday's CPI report came in at 3.6%, two tenths higher than expected, as increasingly pronounced food inflation resurfaced on the mainland. On Tuesday, the Ministry of Commerce reported an unexpected March trade surplus of $5.4B, following the biggest monthly deficit in three decades and spoiling forecasts for another drop. Thursday's new loans data was also surprisingly strong at a 14-month high 1.01 trillion yuan against consensus CNY798B. Consistently strong data points spawned whisper numbers for Q1 GDP to solidly beat 8.4% consensus with a figure as high as 9%, however the 8.1% result damaged some of the China-specific recovery optimism, keeping alive the speculation that the PBoC could be readying additional easing. Late on Friday, financial press speculated that the PBOC did in fact loosen the reserve requirement ratio for some of the financial firms in the agricultural sector. Both the World Bank and Asia Development Bank cut their China 2012 GDP targets marginally to 8.2% and 8.5% respectively, levels still above the new 7.5% official 2012 target. The Shanghai Composite ended the week up 2.3%. Sydney markets, trading as a proxy to China economic data, ended up flat despite the positive news on the Australia jobs front that briefly boosted AUD to a 1-week high $1.0450.

- Elsewhere in Asia, the Bank of Japan kept policy rates unchanged as expected but also voted unanimously to keep its asset purchase fund unchanged. Markets anticipated the BOJ would leave the door open to another easing at the late April meeting, with several press reports suggesting that facility could be raised by as much as ¥10T at the next meeting. BOJ also left its economic assessment unchanged, noting that activity remains more or less flat but showing some signs of picking up. The USD/JPY hit 1 month lows below 80.60 but held the pivotal 80.30 area which was the former high (now likely support) back in Aug 2011 when the BOJ performed one of its solo FX interventions. Japanese official were quite vocal with the recent appreciation of the JPY currency, even though finance minister Azumi said he is not prone to reacting to every move in FX markets.

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