Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1771 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

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Trade What You See And Not What You Hope 0 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #35,401
  • Apr 11, 2012 4:00am Apr 11, 2012 4:00am
Morning Trotty, Easter was good, though working some of the break. I did manage to get away and visit family in Shropshire and found a nice pub on the way back to break the journey Had a nice pint of Butcombe (shame about the name though...) Sounds like you had some good beers from your post too? Hope you had a good break.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,402
  • Apr 11, 2012 4:23am Apr 11, 2012 4:23am
Quoting Trader131
Morning Trotty, Easter was good, though working some of the break. I did manage to get away and visit family in Shropshire and found a nice pub on the way back to break the journey Had a nice pint of Butcombe (shame about the name though...) Sounds like you had some good beers from your post too? Hope you had a good break.
Sounds good to me that!

Aussie looking primed for a long at the minute.....
  • #35,403
  • Apr 11, 2012 4:33am Apr 11, 2012 4:33am
Quoting Trotty
Sounds good to me that!

Aussie looking primed for a long at the minute.....
I'm not sure I see what you're seeing. I think it might retrace soon. Do you mean a breakout play from the 15min ascending triangle?
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,404
  • Apr 11, 2012 4:37am Apr 11, 2012 4:37am
The 1 hour play for a long would have been after the close of the inverted hangman (that "coin flip" PA..) on the trendline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,405
  • Apr 11, 2012 5:20am Apr 11, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Trader131
I'm not sure I see what you're seeing. I think it might retrace soon. Do you mean a breakout play from the 15min ascending triangle?
No, no. Just my general H4 bias after the recent closes. I'm doing little M15 intraday stuff at the moment, just don't have the time
  • #35,406
  • Apr 11, 2012 5:49am Apr 11, 2012 5:49am
Ok, cheers. Here's my 4hr chart (closes in 10mins). A close above the last wick would be bullish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,407
  • Apr 11, 2012 11:26am Apr 11, 2012 11:26am
Hi Folks, sorry I don't wanted to annoy you but I tested lots of strategies like this and I use backtesting a lot.

Quote
Can't see the need to judge a book by it's cover and then tell the world your review of the book after, though.
Ok, I see the intention of the trades by charts on PDF. There's also a website out there where another guy using Hammer, Hanging Man and stuff.

Here are my results to that "awesome" trading technic:
Around 50% hittingquote by RR 1:1, Around 20% hittingquote by RR 5:1.
Got the problem ? It's not better than a coinflip.
Yes, it's right if you watch a trend and use a Hammer as reversal at the end the probabilies rise to may be 23% on RR 5:1 but that's not my game. Too bad CRR.

You just need to input parameters on a program and test it. There were only one formation that worked quite well: Extrem Hammer/Hangingman on 1 minute time frame. There you have a 80% hittingquote by RR 1:1.
That's good but happens only 3-4 times in 2 Month and you gain about 6-8 Pips.

Any comments on that ?

the other technic describes the "breakout" technic on a very low vola market: the problem here is: you need a reason for market to lift off/move down. No Reenter makes sense here (News comin' in and you get slipped etc. if you try to increase lots slighty and so on).
I can post you hundreds of charts where the MA-System described in the PDF doesn't work out. Larry Williams has also used that technic - but in former times on stockmarket by daily candles - not worth a try on 1 hour chart at Forex.

Don't get me wrong. I'm ALWAYS backtesting ideas of others and believe me: 90% doesn't work especially on timeframes lower that 4 hours and that's what I'm trading.

May be you have filters or whatever to use better entrys on what I described above but I don't know them. In that simple method illustrated on PDF it doesn't work for me but may be for you. I have to admit not to have patience for such a mid term strategies - may be in a way you can tweak it but that's up to you.

greets Jack
  • #35,408
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:29pm Apr 11, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting JackintheBox
Hi Folks, sorry I don't wanted to annoy you but I tested lots of strategies like this and I use backtesting a lot.


Ok, I see the intention of the trades by charts on PDF. There's also a website out there where another guy using Hammer, Hanging Man and stuff.

Here are my results to that "awesome" trading technic:
Around 50% hittingquote by RR 1:1, Around 20% hittingquote by RR 5:1.
Got the problem ? It's not better than a coinflip.
Yes, it's right if you watch a trend and use a Hammer as reversal at the end the probabilies rise to...
You are entirely missing the point, that if you ever took the time to have just an inkling of what you're talking about, maybe you may end up to be as good a trader as EOhater or Pippinole, but as you can't even be bothered to look at their posts, we won't hold our breath. Maybe people will take you seriously when you can consistently take 1,000 pips a week from the market on one currency and show people how you do it.
  • #35,409
  • Edited 3:35pm Apr 11, 2012 3:19pm | Edited 3:35pm
Quoting JackintheBox
Any comments on that ?
You come into a man's thread and immediately insult him and countless other traders without even bothering to try and understand the methodology? Why even bothering posting if the method is clearly junk? You obviously realized that you were misunderstanding something. There are plenty of polite ways to ask for clarification, no need to throw a tantrum.

Quoting JackintheBox
May be you have filters or whatever to use better entrys on what I described above but I don't know them. In that simple method illustrated on PDF it doesn't work for me but may be for you. I have to admit not to have patience for such a mid term strategies - may be in a way you can tweak it but that's up to you.
Hmm you think maybe somewhere in the last 2300 pages you can find examples of how the trades are filtered?

This is a discretionary trading method. It's not rocket science, but like every other discretionary trading method in the world it does require countless hours of screen time and a willingness to look deeply into the effects of price structure and current price action on future price. This weird thing starts to happen once you learn the distinctions between entries that work out versus entries that don't. It's called profit.

It is abundantly clear from your post that you don't want a discretionary trading method. You want a true "system" that will be 100% black and white, the kind that the gurus in the trading books talk about. You want something that can be backtested. I wish you the best of luck.

I probably haven't posted in over a year, and I signed on to see what was going on with Trotty, Storeball, Ken, and the other guys. This post was the first thing I saw. I've decided I'll stick to e-mail. This kind of junk is way too common and it's what turned me off from posting in the first place.

Oh yeah, and I'll try to not starve on the money from my "coin-flip" trades
  • #35,410
  • Apr 11, 2012 3:50pm Apr 11, 2012 3:50pm
I think you guys have said it all far better than I could. Of course if you just read the pdf and then trade you'll run straight into problems. This way of trading is so much more than just playing every hangman reversal or ma bounce.

If you want to criticise then please do your homework first and read the thread- it will give you a more informed view. It's not for everyone and requires a serious amount of application.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,411
  • Apr 11, 2012 11:49pm Apr 11, 2012 11:49pm
I agree. This method sucks big time.

Where's Cisco when you need him
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  • #35,412
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:15am Apr 12, 2012 12:15am
Quoting 1pipperhour
I agree. This method sucks big time.

Where's Cisco when you need him
Haha, nice charts.

Morning all. Trotty, looks like Aussie broke out of its downward channel on the unemployment data. I'm looking to enter on a decent retrace, but mindful that the chinese gdp is out tomorrow which will have a big effect on Aussie.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,413
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:20am Apr 12, 2012 12:20am
As I was typing I went long eurusd off the touch of the 35sma and 50 ema + previous low. Lucky coinflip I guess...
Covered half +10 SL to BE
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,414
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:23am Apr 12, 2012 12:23am
Quoting Trader131
Haha, nice charts.

Morning all. Trotty, looks like Aussie broke out of its downward channel on the unemployment data. I'm looking to enter on a decent retrace, but mindful that the chinese gdp is out tomorrow which will have a big effect on Aussie.
Yep, already taken some off my long

Some good posts above regarding our discontented interloper. Nice to see Doc Mongolia join the thread again, albeit fleetingly by the looks of it. He's done exceptionally well for himself using this method as his guide and has put the kind of effort and focus into honing the entries that most of us should aspire to - especially those who think that trading is as simple as x+y has to = z 70% of the time otherwise it can't work.

Not sure whether any of the replies will convince our friend not to be so short-sighted but hopefully they will encourage others to ignore him and stick with this for the long-haul.
  • #35,415
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:25am Apr 12, 2012 12:25am
Quoting Trader131
As I was typing I went long eurusd off the touch of the 35sma and 50 ema + previous low. Lucky coinflip I guess...
Covered half +10 SL to BE
Nice tossing 131 (as it were)
  • #35,416
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:36am Apr 12, 2012 12:36am
Quoting Trotty
Nice tossing 131 (as it were)
LOL, stopped at BE- it was a quick 15min play (the hourly was against me), but I saw enough confluence to get a bounce, and the indices were powering up, so it could have gone further. The thing is there are loads of moves like this in the day, and you just have to keep taking them, covering your risk and you make regular consistent small wins, the odd loser and then the odd biggie that gives you the home run.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #35,417
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:39am Apr 12, 2012 12:39am
Quoting Trader131
LOL, stopped at BE- it was a quick 15min play (the hourly was against me), but I saw enough confluence to get a bounce, and the indices were powering up, so it could have gone further. The thing is there are loads of moves like this in the day, and you just have to keep taking them, covering your risk and you make regular consistent small wins, the odd loser and then the odd biggie that gives you the home run.
That's almost exactly what EO/Infinity were doing. They just had that special ability to know which ones to hold, when to cut the trade early and when to take a little profit and be happy.

Clever buggers
  • #35,418
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:43am Apr 12, 2012 12:43am
Quoting Trotty
That's almost exactly what EO/Infinity were doing. They just had that special ability to know which ones to hold, when to cut the trade early and when to take a little profit and be happy.

Clever buggers
Would be great if they could come and trade with us at least a week or so.
  • #35,419
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:46am Apr 12, 2012 12:46am
WAZZZUUUUPPP?????

Just got in the door from doing Karaoke, one guy sang "Baby Got Back" and had the whole crowd dancing tonight....

I see we have another person who just goes around and bashes people's work......

I just let them be, makes no sense to try and convince them..

Okay, so the EU is going down, AU trying to go up and GU just whipsawing all over the place....WTF?

Going to grab some food....BRB.

HOLLA
  • #35,420
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:47am Apr 12, 2012 12:47am
Quoting 1pipperhour
Would be great if they could come and trade with us at least a week or so.
It would be awesome but to be fair, they've left enough of a legacy that there probably isn't actually that more that they can help us with now. Most of what they know is in these pages.
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