EurAnalysis

From CNBC via email. No link

The US Labor Department plans to tighten its rules for the media to prevent leaks of the monthly jobs numbers. The department will supply standard equipment to journalists and won’t allow company-owned computers or phones to be used. There will also be no wireless access. Pens and pencils will be supplied and no personal gear – umbrellas, bags, etc. will be allowed.

Hey everyone, this is my first post at FF. Euro is my favorite currency to trade..mostly because of the spreads and intra day volatility. I nabbed 1.31548 (1.31561 top) with 40x leverage. I saw the double top formation in the tick by tick order window, on a surging but exhausted market, 10 pips from a large resistance peak (1.31635). We have seen some insane volatility today.

Also went long USDJPY at 80.62, which was the 1 month low (about 80.57), thanks to www.talking-forex.com audio squawk for the reminder. IMO one of the hardest part about currency trading is keeping up with all the different charts. It is so easy to miss a move, and I don't like to use limit orders.

Just closed the EUR position at end of U.S. session at 1.31. Still holding USDJPY. You could say I am happy camper today.

If today is anything like most other days, Asia into Europe will go long and I'll be looking to re establish short positions during London. However, Euro is looking so weak that I wouldn't be surprised to see it fail to retake 1.312.. Asia might actually sell for once, but so far it's the typical

I news trade and do high leverage scalping on clear resistance/support mostly.

I look forward to discussion with you all. Good luck trading!

Welcome to our little yet powerful thread BFSGCapital (Mind if I call you BF?)
If you haven't already done so, I urge you to read page 1 of this thread where you will find the rules and objectives designed for everyone's pleasure. There you will also find links to resources suitable for novice and seasoned traders alike.
Looking forward to your participation here.
Cheers,
PipTrapper (aka PT)

Appreciate the warm welcome and I just read through the rules. Looks like you have some valuable information there too I will have to take a look at. BF is fine

The usual Sydney through Asia rally is in place, but with some resistance at 1.3125-1.313 area. I'll be looking to get short for at least a scalp at 1.313, if we even get that high. It isn't looking promising so far.

Clear

Hi, Fxm! How are you?

yayyy...i dont want this one
am fine boy,how bout you..everything well,its your time to go back home and married

My mother is looking out for a girl for me to get married, you want me to tell her looking for a girl for you as well? You like Bengali girls?

What do you mean?

all of them not suitable with you,am just found one and very match with your cute2
Love her,cherish her and the most important one
Dont forget to lick her....

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-EK1-DGvMD2..._128121776.jpg
Rekon future wife

I just saw some posts here of hairy young women. Are we allowed to post pictures of our ladies of choice here ? I prefer woman who shave. Have a good sleep and when you wake up please give us guidelines for posting decorum on our thread. We have a 16 year old here and a 17 year old and I do not know if they can handle images of sexy woman.

If it ok with you then I will support your decision. Now I am off to watch an adult movie before bed. Thank goodness at 68, I still have the interest. My lady friend is 25.

I will short at 1.3160 if Risk is Off and in the AM we have jobless claims.

... better become a Buddha Monk

http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index

Very good signal

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...ket-new-update

Note from dshort: I've updated the charts below to include today's decline in both equity prices and Treasury yields.

We're well into our sixth month since the latest Federal Reserve intervention, Operation Twist, was officially announced on September 21. We've now seen several bouts of aggressive Fed attempts to manage the economy following the collapse of the two Bear Stearns hedge funds in mid-2007 about three month before the all-time high in the S&P 500.

Initially the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) underwent a series of cuts, and with the collapse of Bear Stearns, the Fed launched a veritable of tactical strategies intended to stave off economic disaster: PDCF, TALF, TARP, etc. But shortly after the Lehman bankruptcy filing, the Fed really swung into high gear. The FFR fell off a cliff and soon bounced in the lower half of the 0 to 0.25% ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy). The thud to the FFR bottom coincided with the first of two rounds of quantitative easing in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, this chart needs little additional explanation — except perhaps for those who are puzzled by the Jackson Hole callout. The reference is to Chairman Bernanke's speech at the Fed's 2010 annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Bernanke strongly hinted about the forthcoming Federal Reserve intervention that was subsequently initiated in November of 2010, namely, the second round of quantitative easing, aka QE2.


http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...-2007-2012.jpg
The latest major strategy, Operation Twist, will run through June 2012. The Fed is selling $400 billion of shorter-term Treasury securities and using the proceeds to buy longer-term Treasury securities in an effort to lower interest rates.

The yield on the 10-year note closed at 1.88 on the day of the "Twist" announcement and on the following day closes at the historic low of 1.72. The interim post-twist yield highs for the 10 and 30 had been 2.42 and 3.45, respectively, on October 27. But on March 19, three weeks ago, the 30-year hit a new interim closing high yield of 3.48.

We still a bit over two and a half months of "Twist" left, so it's too soon to make a firm pronouncement the success of this strategy for lowering interest rates. According to the Freddie Mac , the 30-year mortgage rate has fluctuated between 4.22% and 3.87% since the first week in September, and the most recent average as of was at 3.98%. Here is a snapshot of the 10 and 30 year Treasury yields and the 30-year fixed mortgage (excluding points).

The 30-year mortgage is near the bottom of the range, and two Treasuries are somewhere between their interim highs and lows.
The past three years have been an exciting time for many professional traders and their seasoned amateur counterparts. And it's been a dream-come-true for institutional HFT (high frequency trading) with computerized algorithms. Of course, there have been perils, even for seasoned pros.

The bankruptcy of MF Global is a grim reminder.
On the other hand, savers — those benighted souls looking for income from CDs, Treasury yields, and FDIC insured money markets — have had a rude introduction to the new reality, one that will apparently be with us for a very long time.

Lolz..shave one? she is your sir
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Rs53-MPsJa...00/1agirl8.jpg

cherish her bro...she is rare thing

Got this peak here for 6 pips, closed at the 8 EMA (5m chart yellow line). We'll see if it holds.

http://i43.tinypic.com/x5teoh.jpg

So we are allowed to post off topic until what hours? London and NY sessions?

Europe's banks beached as ECB stimulus runs dry

http://www.gata.org/themes/gata/imag...ting_small.gifSubmitted by cpowell on 08:39PM ET Wednesday, April 11, 2012. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Wednesday, April 11, 2012

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/919851...
The European Central Bank's E1 trillion (L824 billion) lending spree over the winter has stored up a host of fresh problems, leaving parts of the banking system more vulnerable than before as the short-term "sugar rush" nears exhaustion.

Credit experts say the Spanish and Italian banks are trapped with large losses on sovereign bonds bought with ECB funds under the three-year lending programme, or Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO).
Andrew Roberts, credit chief at RBS, said Spanish banks used ECB funds to purchase five-year Spanish bonds at yields near 3.5 percent in February and 4.5 percent in December. The same bonds were trading at 4.77 percent on Wednesday, implying a large loss on the capital value of the bonds.

It is much the same story for Italian banks pressured into buying Italian debt by their own government. Any further dent to confidence in Italy and Spain over coming weeks -- either over fiscal slippage or the depth of economic contraction -- could push losses to levels that trigger margin calls on collateral.


"The banks are deeply under water. This is turning into a disaster for the eurozone periphery now that the liquidity tap has been turned off," said Mr Roberts. "But given the opposition in Germany, the ECB can't easily do another LTRO until there is a major crisis."

Spanish banks bought E67 billion of sovereign debt between December and February, while Italian banks bought E54 billion. The purchases almost certainly continued in March. These lenders have soaked up most of debt issues in their countries over the past three months, picking up at a juicy return under the "carry trade" while at the same acting as a conduit for the ECB to shore up crippled countries by the back door.

The snag is becoming evident. Weaker lenders are merely parking the ECB's ultra-cheap funds in these bonds until they need the money to roll over their own debts. That is coming due since European banks have E600 billion in redemptions over the rest of the year. Many are now stuck with losses that they cannot afford to crystalise.

"It is going to be a problem if the funding market does not open soon and they have to liquidate their holdings," said Guy Mandy from Nomura. "What the LTRO has done is concentrate systemic risk even further. If everything now goes wrong, it could go wrong in a hurry."

Mr Mandy said the EU's fiscal austerity is itself "self-defeating," asphyxiating growth and further entwining the perilous nexus of fragile banking systems and indebted states. "Europe still lacks a commensurate policy response. The dogged pursuit of pro-cyclical fiscal austerity could force countries into a downward spiral. To minimise risk, monetary policy needs to be exceptionally loose," he said, calling for a blitz of quantitative easing (QE) to remove assets from bank balance sheets.

Mr Mandy said the LTRO is entirely different from the stimulus of the Anglo-Saxon central banks. "There has been no transfer of risk to the ECB's own balance sheet, which is what we think is needed to take away the tail risk of another EMU blowup."

Benoit Coeure, France's board member at the ECB, on Wednesday hinted that Frankfurt may be willing to restart direct purchases of Spanish bonds to cap rising yields, saying the debt rout over recent weeks is unjustified.
The comments triggered a recovery of Club Med debt but such action is fraught with its own risks even if the German Bundesbank is willing to help a country that is seen -- in German eyes at least -- to be dragging its feet on fiscal austerity.

David Owen from Jefferies Fixed Income said that the ECB pushes other investors "down the food chain" instantly when it buys Spanish and Italian debt, raising the loss ratio if either country slides into a Greek-style restructuring.

This has become a sore subject for investors following the Greek debacle where all EU bodies -- including the European Investment Bank, which is not a lender of last resort -- were exempted from having to take haircuts. Others such as the Norwegian state pension fund suffered 75 percent losses.

Japanese investors have sold E48 billion of eurozone debt over the past year, according to Bloomberg, and are steering clear of any EMU states that could be given the Greek treatment.

"I'm not planning to add Spanish or Italian bonds any time soon," said Masataka Horii from Kokusai Global Sovereign Open Fund.

Mr Owen said the eurozone's slide into recession will intensify debt jitters and force the ECB to respond. "It will have to cut rates to near zero, and ultimately launch full-scale QE, perhaps as soon as the third quarter."
Mr Owen said contortions caused by ECB intervention would not be an issue if the bank acted with force majeure and conviction, as the central banks of the US, UK, and Switzerland have.

"The ECB says its action is 'temporary and limited,' and that is precisely the problem," he said. "They are making things worse with piecemeal measures. Economic historians are going to be very damning of the policy mistakes made during this whole episode."

We follow the rules of our leader PipTrapper. He will reply later on. When it is quiet we can have some common sense leeway. Good Night and thanks for the good chart. A Picture is worth a thousand words.