EurAnalysis

Ok, another fail to break and I can live with this H1 candle, so I added a bit of fuel into my submarine.

T

Mine is nuclear powered. No extra fuel required

http://visual.merriam-webster.com/im...ubmarine_2.jpg

Please Notice The Pattern is constant. Since 7:45 AM


Tsunami feared after massive Indonesian earthquake Indonesia has suffered earthquakes of 8.7 and 8.8 off the coast of Aceh, prompting a tsunami warning for across the Indian Ocean. Tremors were felt in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and India. The devastating tsunami in 2004 was caused by a 9.1 magnitude earthquake.

Top Equities News
Alcoa shares jump after unexpected profit. Alcoa (AA) surprised Wall Street with an unexpected EPS profit of $0.10 in Q1, sending shares 6.5% higher premarket even though net income fell sharply from a year earlier. Revenue also beat expectations, rising slightly to $6.01B despite a slump in aluminum prices. CNBC's Pete Najarian was encouraged by Alcoa's upbeat talk about China and its "pretty phenomenal" global demand forecast of 7%, but SA authors Robert Broens and David Silver aren't convinced, the latter noting that Alcoa beat reduced expectations.
Nokia's U.S. Lumia launch hits glitch after software bug found. First there was the inexplicable Easter launch, now, just 3 days later, Nokia (NOK) has said it's found a software bug in the Lumia 900 (MSFT) that can cause it to lose its data connection. While embarrassing, Gartner likes the way Nokia's dealing with the problem: it's pledged to fix the glitch by next week, and it will offer a $100 credit to the AT&T (T) bills of affected users. SA contributor Gutone reckons the Lumia 900 "appears (to be) a winner, for now."
Carlyle aims for IPO valuation of up to $8B. P-E firm Carlyle Group (CARL) reportedly plans to seek a valuation of $7.5B-$8B in its IPO, when it plans to offer 10% of the company. Carlyle could start its roadshow next week, but a lot depends on the success of today's scheduled listing of rival Oaktree, which is looking to raise $517.5M.
DOJ may sue Apple today over e-book price-fixing. The Department of Justice could reportedly sue Apple (AAPL) and Macmillan today over the alleged fixing of e-book prices while coming to a settlement with Simon & Schuster (CBS), Hachette and HarperCollins (NWSA). Justice wants a deal that would let Amazon (AMZN) and other retailers, not the publishers, decide what to charge customers.
Coty may revive IPO scheme as Avon alternative. Coty could resurrect a plan to carry out an IPO in the U.S. if it fails in its $10B bid for Avon (AVP), which it could increase. The company has already had initial discussions with investment banks, but placed going public on the backburner after the Avon deal started to heat up.

Top Economic & Other News
Romney on course to challenge Obama after Santorum quits. The way is open for Mitt Romney to win the GOP's nomination for President after Rick Santorum, his closest rival, yesterday suspended his bid. Santorum's exit still leaves Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the race, but they're way behind in the polls and delegate count.
FHFA: Freddie, Fannie could save $1.7B from loan forgiveness. Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) could save $1.7B by forgiving principal on some problem loans, Edward DeMarco, the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said yesterday. However, the net cost to the taxpayer would be $2.1B, as the savings would come from Treasury incentives via the expanded Home Affordable Modification Program and using TARP funds.
Germany, Italy suffer poor bond auctions. Germany has experienced very weak demand at an auction of 10-year Bunds, able to move just €3.87B of paper vs. a target of €5B. The bid-cover ratio was just 1.1. The notes were priced to yield 1.77% - a record-low for an auction - but sharply higher than the 1.64% Bunds were trading at yesterday. Meanwhile, Italian yields jumped in an auction of €11B of 12- and 3-month paper as Spain's budget woes hit other vulnerable countries. Notwithstanding, yields for 10-year paper in the secondary market took a dive, falling 15 bps to 5.54% premarket, while those for Spain were -13 bps at 5.85%. It could be ECB bond buying, but maybe it's the Adelson effect.

Where To Go Next
Expectations Heading Into Earnings Season
Growth Vs. Value Investing
Why Is Spain In Such Bad Shape?

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan -0.8% to 9459. Hong Kong -1.1% to 20141. China +0.1% to 2309. India -0.3% to 17199.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris +1.5%. Frankfurt +1.3%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.65%. S&P +0.8%. Nasdaq +0.7%. Crude +0.5% to $101.54. Gold -0.1% to $1659.50.

Wednesday's economic calendar:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:20 Fed's Lockhart: 'Financial Reforms'
8:30 Import/Export Prices
9:30 Fed's George: 'Debt, Deficits and Financial Instability'
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
10:30 Fed's Rosengren: 'Money Market Mutual Funds'
1:00 PM Results of $21B, 10-Year Note Auction


http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit...20120405_5.pdf
2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book
2:00 PM Treasury Budget
4:00 PM Fed's Bullard : 'Economic Outlook'
7:30 PM Fed's Yellen: 'The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy'

Thanks To Larry Levin

A Letter from Ben

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/letter.jpg



To: Greece Italy, and Spain

From: Chairman Ben Bernanke

Re: What I would really like to say to you, but I can’t.

Hey you three laggard losers; couldn’t you just dissolve yourselves out of the EU? I mean the Greeks are dissolving their Parliament. Better yet, couldn’t you have tacked on a couple of more days to your extended Easter holiday and remained closed? Now your debt woes have completely messed with my plans.

The market is now down 5 days in a row. That’s right 5 down days! Back in the good old days of 2008-09, my central banker friends and I could help with a $1 trillion flood of liquidity (and QE2 and Operation Twist), and that was enough to save the global debt machine from implosion. Back then, the markets kept on chugging higher and higher.

For the latest rally, I made sure the central bankers helped with $3 trillion in global liquidity injections. But clearly $3 trillion ain’t what it used to be. Are you going to add inflation to my list of problems? This money was supposed to buy a much longer rally, or at least until the U.S. Presidential elections in November.

Now your European ineptitude is causing people to question the happy, happy economic news that the lame stream media has been touting here in America. The once co-operative “not-seeking work” folks are starting to look for work again, messing with the creative employment numbers.

So take your sovereign debt crisis, your rising bond yields, and stick it where the sun doesn’t shine.

Thanks a lot for nothing,

Ben

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”




Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.




[email protected]

France at Risk
April 11, 2012

This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at the OECD in Paris. His bio is found on Cumberland’s home page, www.cumber.com. He can be reached at [email protected].


The French economy, the second largest in the Eurozone and considered to be a critical part of the “core,” is increasingly seen as “struggling.” Fundamental structural deficiencies that are continuing to gnaw at France’s ability to compete internationally are now being emphasized in a presidential election campaign in which both leading candidates are making election promises that, if fulfilled, would surely make it even more difficult to tackle France’s economic problems. And this is occurring at a time when the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis is far from being resolved and much of Europe is in recession. Industrial production declined in February, the third month of declines.

On the positive side, France has more firms in the global Fortune 500 than any other European country. But French companies are struggling to compete with labor costs 10% higher than those for German firms and social charges double those that German firms face. A European Commission survey suggests that French firms also have an innovation deficiency. It perhaps is not surprising that France’s unemployment rate is 10%, compared to 5.8% in Germany.

France is no Greece with respect to public finances, but its finances are going in the wrong direction. Its public debt is 90% of GDP and increasing at a time when the rest of Europe is recognizing the need to take tough austerity measures. In a thoughtful editorial entitled “A Country in Denial,” in the March 31st issue of The Economist, decades of French policies are summed up as follows: “For years France has offered its people a Swedish-style social model of services, benefits, and protection, but has failed to create enough wealth to pay for it.”

Having spent 27 years in France while working at the OECD in Paris, a beautiful city and country, it is with regret that I must agree with The Economist’s views on some of the reasons France has fallen behind in the creation of wealth. Too many of the French reject the free-market system and capitalism. A poll by the polling firm GlobeScan indicates that only 31% of the French agree that the free-market system is the best. Business- and market-friendly reforms face a very strong political headwind in such an environment. The French have never come to terms with the globalization of the world economy, and their attempts to resist globalization have failed.

The leading two candidates in the Presidential campaign, the Gaullist President Nicolas Sarkozy, and the Socialist contender, Francois Hollande, have contributed little to address France’s dire economic problems in their campaign speeches. Indeed, most of their statements have only served to raise investor concerns, including ours, about France’s future. This is especially the case for the Socialist Hollande, whom polls suggest is in the lead. He is calling for an increase in the size of the state (public spending is already equal to 55.8% of GDP), a roll-back of part of Sarkozy’s.

pension reform, and for taxing the rich at a 75% top tax rate, which would rise to over 90% when social charges are included. He also wants to increase the wealth tax and taxes on dividends.

Most worrisome with respect to Sarkozy is his calling for the adoption of protectionist policies. His plan for addressing the public finance crisis would increase the burden of taxes to 45.8% of GDP by 2016 from 44.6% today. On the positive side, in his economic program unveiled last week he aims to reduce public spending as a proportion of GDP to 51.9% by 2016. He also says he will seek to reduce high social charges and liberalize the French labor market.

We recognize that election promises often are not fulfilled and there will be great pressure on whomever is elected to address France’s problems in a realistic and responsible way. For example, while a number of market-unfriendly steps were taken, such as the mandatory 35-hour week, during the Socialists’ previous turn in power, there were also positive steps. Over the 1997-2002 period more French companies were privatized than had been up to that time. We do hope wiser views than we have heard expressed in this campaign will prevail. France is fortunate to have one of the globe’s best central bankers in our friend Christian Noyer, Governor of the Banque de France, along with a goodly number of sound economic and regulatory officials. Nevertheless, we view the coming years for France with great concern.

Investors are registering their concerns in the markets. French equities are underperforming this year. The MSCI equity index for France, with a year-to-date increase of 3.6%, is far behind Germany’s 12.4% advance. While Germany’s bond rate has been declining, France’s has been rising; and hence its spread over the German benchmark has increased to 1.31%, the highest it has been since mid-January. Of course that is still far less than Spain’s 4.25% spread and Italy’s spread that is approaching 4%. Within the Eurozone, we have concentrated our positions in our Global and International portfolios in just one equity market, that of Germany.


Bill Witherell, Chief Global Economist

News flash... "Greek cabinet approves plan to for government-backed bonds to recapitalize banks "

So this means that the banks will sell bonds to the public, which are backed by the government, which is backed by the public.

Please explain to me how this works.

Greece people are giving their tax-leftovers to bank and starve to death.

Guess that this is why we got the bulls wakening and testing daily highs and then when the news settled it started falling

This gets boring already, no challenge.

No... This is bearish flag

EU reacts like women nowdays..sometimes....

Great! much better version, BEAR RELOADED! But until now I am not too much convince to get a big move soon.

This my count until now... (short term)

Sui Roberto Carlos ~

On word explanation: Ponzi

If that is a H/S pattern on M15 and the neckline is the daily pivot, then we should see 1.3060 to complete the pattern

Here is a copy of the Fed's beige book.

Enjoy.



Retail spending reports were positive
near-term outlook for household spending encouraging
Hiring steady or showed modest gains in most districts
Inflation modest in most districts