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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #30,781
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:53pm Apr 6, 2012 11:53pm
Quoting Snarkalarker

Bring up your Weekly chart.

Point A= April 05 2009

Point B= May 02 2010

Point C= You tell me. It is right there. Has this run ... run out of steam?
What a hit this pair took yesterday if you were long.

I do not think that this move has run out of steam at least up to the Weekly trend line. 83.65 area. Yesterday was a nice surprise but I am easing into my short so it was kind of depressing to see it make that move and only holding a small position. No change in my plans for now. I think it will break 83 very soon once again then I will be easing into a short position again albeit this time maybe a litle bit heavier.
  • #30,782
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:56pm Apr 6, 2012 11:56pm
Looking at the 15 minute charts, within the space of not even 15 minutes it went from 82.5 to 81.3
What caused such a sudden drop.
Whatever it was, thats a huge trade thats bought YEN.
  • #30,783
  • Apr 6, 2012 11:59pm Apr 6, 2012 11:59pm
Quoting Snarkalarker
What a hit this pair took yesterday if you were long.

I think it will break 83 very soon once again then I will be easing into a short position again albeit this time maybe a litle bit heavier.
I hope youre right, the only thing I can think that caused such a huge hit is negative data from the US re job figures, therefore money flowing back into the safe havens.
Seems a bit of a yoyo exercise of late.

Having said that im not convinced thats the reason since it dropped that far in the space of a few mins.
  • #30,784
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:39pm Apr 9, 2012 4:39pm
where is everybody?
Nobody trades this pair anymore?
  • #30,785
  • Apr 9, 2012 5:29pm Apr 9, 2012 5:29pm
I am very excited for the upcoming data. the monetary policy statement will catapult usd/jpy back towards 83.3. the bears couldn't even push it down to its first re-tracement level at 81.07 due to the bulls seeing the yen strength as an opportunity to buy up before todays event. and with the fomc speeches and all the positive data coming out for the rest of the week i am extremely bullish. my trade is in
  • #30,786
  • Apr 9, 2012 5:39pm Apr 9, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting Zac
Looking at the 15 minute charts, within the space of not even 15 minutes it went from 82.5 to 81.3
What caused such a sudden drop.
Whatever it was, thats a huge trade thats bought YEN.
it was caused by the jpy account balance. it was extremely positive for the yen.
but bulls just saw the drop as an opportunity to buy some more at lower levels. which is why it failed to cross the 81.07 (38.2%) retracement level
  • #30,787
  • Apr 9, 2012 5:39pm Apr 9, 2012 5:39pm
Attentation focus on eu, Au, Ej!

Quoting gunawan98
where is everybody?
Nobody trades this pair anymore?
  • #30,788
  • Apr 9, 2012 9:22pm Apr 9, 2012 9:22pm
Im keen to keep holding this until later in the month when BoJ and government discuss economics. Seems theres lots of pressure to atleast get the pair to the 85-90 level.
  • #30,789
  • Apr 10, 2012 1:05am Apr 10, 2012 1:05am
Seem down
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30,790
  • Apr 10, 2012 1:28am Apr 10, 2012 1:28am
Quoting gunawan98
where is everybody?
Nobody trades this pair anymore?
SHORT

as per chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 0002.jpg Size: 100 KB
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #30,791
  • Apr 10, 2012 5:52am Apr 10, 2012 5:52am
USD/JPY has been testing 81 this morning. If 81 breaks, we could see a move to 80. I'm short form 81.19. Good luck all.
  • #30,792
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:16am Apr 10, 2012 6:16am
still in trade from monday at 81.5 stop at 80.9 over leverage at 81.1 waiting to see if the bulls can give me a kit kat on this one. im still excited for going long this trade even if it hits my stop im looking to buy again at the 80 level.
  • #30,793
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:31am Apr 10, 2012 6:31am
I know everyone keeps saying this is just a correction, but it's starting to look more like a real downward trend to me.
  • #30,794
  • Edited 7:11am Apr 10, 2012 6:59am | Edited 7:11am
it's hitting 38,2 fib level now..i doubt it easily breaks through ..anyway we are in a correction now ...either wave 2 of the uptrend or wave B of a big correction... still unsure if the big rally we saw this year was an impulsive wave or just a corrective wave A of the even bigger downtrend of last year...in this case the current move has the potential to travel all the way back down ...but i guess we would need more bad fundamental driver for this
  • #30,795
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:09am Apr 10, 2012 8:09am
1h bearish close below 81. Looks good for 80 at some point this week.
  • #30,796
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:11am Apr 10, 2012 10:11am
Quoting torkay77
it's hitting 38,2 fib level now..i doubt it easily breaks through ..anyway we are in a correction now ...either wave 2 of the uptrend or wave B of a big correction... still unsure if the big rally we saw this year was an impulsive wave or just a corrective wave A of the even bigger downtrend of last year...in this case the current move has the potential to travel all the way back down ...but i guess we would need more bad fundamental driver for this

You'd also need the complacency of the BOJ to accept a huge rise in their rate, while the rest of the world keeps printing money. it won't go that much lower than 80, I think the BoJ will loathe to give up those gains in depreciation.
  • #30,797
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:25am Apr 10, 2012 10:25am
yeah i guess there is heavy carry trade unwinding going on right now messing up my technicals again
  • #30,798
  • Apr 10, 2012 4:06pm Apr 10, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting lolygagv2
You'd also need the complacency of the BOJ to accept a huge rise in their rate, while the rest of the world keeps printing money. it won't go that much lower than 80, I think the BoJ will loathe to give up those gains in depreciation.
BOJ is not renown for clever thinking. Look at all the intervention they have done over the past couple of years, only to sit back and watch the Yen claw it's way back and then get even strong still.....within a matter of weeks after the intervention.

The fact is that the market will win over intervention every time. BOJ will not turn the trend unless the world economic climate is in sync.

The climb in the UJ pair has been out of proportion to reality, and perhaps after this retrace, a more modest climb will resume....perhaps not. Time will tell, but BOJ, despite their huge 'intervention account', will have to act a bit smarter if they are to succeed in the their quest for a weaker Yen.....imo.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,799
  • Apr 10, 2012 4:41pm Apr 10, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting realjumper
BOJ is not renown for clever thinking. Look at all the intervention they have done over the past couple of years, only to sit back and watch the Yen claw it's way back and then get even strong still.....within a matter of weeks after the intervention.

The fact is that the market will win over intervention every time. BOJ will not turn the trend unless the world economic climate is in sync.

The climb in the UJ pair has been out of proportion to reality, and perhaps after this retrace, a more modest climb will resume....perhaps not. Time will tell,...
but shirakawa is very clever man.....haha
Bismillah
  • #30,800
  • Apr 10, 2012 4:54pm Apr 10, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting krunfx
but shirakawa is very clever man.....haha
Yeah....so clever that he sits back and watches a 350 pip drop on the UJ pair with no answer.... huhuhuhu
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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