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EURUSD

  • #622,781
  • Apr 9, 2012 6:54pm Apr 9, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting JesseMFguire
............... still extremely confused as too why the euro is valued at a 1 and 1/3 the weight of a dollar....
Thoughts?
.........because it worths twice the dollar
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #622,782
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:00pm Apr 9, 2012 7:00pm
EUR/USD and USD/JPY are finally starting to diverge and go their own separate ways. I would not be long the EUR/USD right now. It might very well still go up but the risk is to high for my liking's. There will always be other trades.
  • #622,783
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:05pm Apr 9, 2012 7:05pm
Quoting JesseMFguire
Wow. The Euro is showing an absurd amount of resilience, I am a Noob trader only about a year in the game. still extremely confused as too why the euro is valued at a 1 and 1/3 the weight of a dollar considering the prospects in Europe now. i think with spanish yields spiking and Portugal loading up on the ECBs money would finally be enough to break the euro's back (by that i mean 1.3000)

Thoughts?
Its just a matter of time this turd belongs in the sewers, howerver support is support, so either go with the better r/r or wait patiently
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #622,784
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:06pm Apr 9, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting JesseMFguire
Wow. The Euro is showing an absurd amount of resilience, I am a Noob trader only about a year in the game. still extremely confused as too why the euro is valued at a 1 and 1/3 the weight of a dollar considering the prospects in Europe now. i think with spanish yields spiking and Portugal loading up on the ECBs money would finally be enough to break the euro's back (by that i mean 1.3000)

Thoughts?
A lot of things are factored into the pricing of a currency. A lot of the data used is unavailable to us, and there are moves today than account for news we might not get for several days. As a general rule of thumb, the large institutional traders (and entrepreneurs alike) know what they are doing. They are some of the smartest men in the world (I happen to know a few). If they are keeping the price at 1.3100, they have a reason for it.
  • #622,785
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:09pm Apr 9, 2012 7:09pm
We will allow the pair to drift a little towards DPP at first ...

2012-04-10_02h00_ EURUSD _ min030 _ (200) candlestickvolumechart + PSAR + TL

I will stop the use of "volume" again in grafical views ...

As we do like to trade price differential and nothing else ...






;-|
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-04-10_01h57_ EURUSD _ min030 _ (200) candlestickvolumechart + PSAR + TL.PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-04-10_02h00_ EURUSD _ min030 _ (200) candlestickvolumechart + PSAR + TL.PNG Size: 24 KB
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #622,786
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:12pm Apr 9, 2012 7:12pm
eu sister aussie is precarious at the mo just pierce ltl of 30 bear flag, need to wait retest, to confirm, or she be back in channel rr will be still long, bears need patience
other sister kiwi is alraedy show direction mmmm
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #622,787
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:12pm Apr 9, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting JesseMFguire
Wow. The Euro is showing an absurd amount of resilience, I am a Noob trader only about a year in the game. still extremely confused as too why the euro is valued at a 1 and 1/3 the weight of a dollar considering the prospects in Europe now. i think with spanish yields spiking and Portugal loading up on the ECBs money would finally be enough to break the euro's back (by that i mean 1.3000)

Thoughts?
You're absolutely correct. However, consider the following...

1. There still exists a 0.75% rate differential between the two currencies' over night rates in favor of the Euro. EZ: 1.00% US: 0.25%... This allows for a carry trade. Traders and investors use the USD as a funding currency (Borrow USD) at a cheap rate to invest in and trade instruments in the EuroZone that generate a higher yield; such as sovereign bonds, or even better, corporate bonds. That translates into USD being exchanged for EURs (USD Bearish, EUR bullish)
2. With all the central bank interventions going on lately (ECB LTROs), the markets are flooded with liquidity which is being used to trade (or invest in) Eurozone government and corporate bonds. This (the LTRO program) has provided the liquidity required to avert a credit crunch (or credit freeze) in the EZ by providing the banks and other financial institutions with cash for junk. The ECB takes on the risk and the banks get the cash to do with as they wish. The result is a somewhat stabilized financial market in Europe which helps make the markets more confident (risk-on). If you follow the risk-on/risk-off paradigm, you will know that risk-on is typically JPY and USD bearish (funding currencies) and bullish for most other currencies.

Anyway, regardless of any of the above, I still believe the Euro has very limited upside and at best the Euro will range trade. Whilst I still expect the Euro to fall from the current levels over time towards the lower figures (1.20/1.10), the fall will be slow and choppy due to the factors explained above in points 1 and 2. Mind you, as soon as the shit hits the fan in Spain, all bets are off. Then most of us will be looking like Homer Simpson...

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #622,788
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:19pm Apr 9, 2012 7:19pm
Here's a theory u.s. Gas prices keep rising which is not good for the economy which leads me to believe soon enough dollar will break down again and eur will rise once again. Just a theory.
  • #622,789
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:22pm Apr 9, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting Patternz
Here's a theory u.s. Gas prices keep rising which is not good for the economy which leads me to believe soon enough dollar will break down again and eur will rise once again. Just a theory.
Allow me to poke a little hole in your theory.

Higher gas prices = bad for economy
Bad economy = risk-off
risk-off = capital flows to safe havens
capital flows to safe havens = EUR bearish & USD bullish
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #622,790
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:22pm Apr 9, 2012 7:22pm
I see nothing happening for another three hours. Lot of ranging.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #622,791
  • Apr 9, 2012 7:23pm Apr 9, 2012 7:23pm
it is a brutal week for the euro zone, lots of negative data. it will be interesting to see if the eur/usd can break below 1.3 or if the fomc speeches will be negative as well and push the eur/usd higher. Either way, the near term consensus is extremely bearish and the eur/usd will be held under 1.3310
  • #622,792
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:10pm Apr 9, 2012 8:10pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Allow me to poke a little hole in your theory.

Higher gas prices = bad for economy
Bad economy = risk-off
risk-off = capital flows to safe havens
capital flows to safe havens = EUR bearish & USD bullish
Perfect reply, "kiss" however it is good to see all different apspects discussed, forex is one big jig saw, need as many peices as possible, befroe consider a trade entry

If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #622,793
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:27pm Apr 9, 2012 8:27pm
to all my head and shoulders pattern hating mother fuckas, this shit is in play... watching for potential breakouts.. will be shorting higher and lower
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #622,794
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:37pm Apr 9, 2012 8:37pm
long @ 1.3127
tp @ 1.3160
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #622,795
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:37pm Apr 9, 2012 8:37pm
Dabbling in a short here at 3132. Hope I don't regret it later.
  • #622,796
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:41pm Apr 9, 2012 8:41pm
respect the market and she will reward you handsomely
  • #622,797
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:42pm Apr 9, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting RamsesII
to all my head and shoulders pattern hating mother fuckas, this shit is in play... watching for potential breakouts.. will be shorting higher and lower
nice, but ...

I am counting money.........
Think Different
  • #622,798
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:47pm Apr 9, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I went long AUD/NZD but I don't think there is a thread / forum for that.
Building up position for weeks to come with some nice positive SWAP
Just took out 35 pips profit. Couldn't control my greedy finger to keep this for a few weeks. But I'll try again when we go a little lower.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #622,799
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:51pm Apr 9, 2012 8:51pm
Okay, back to EU and EG
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #622,800
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:51pm Apr 9, 2012 8:51pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post5546243

Closed 80% of position and waiting to reload at lower price.
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