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  • #6,621
  • Apr 8, 2012 6:36pm Apr 8, 2012 6:36pm
Impossible to tell this weeks direction by looking at the weekly chart. All I can tell by looking at the weekly chart is that we have just corrected to the 38.25 Fib level which is a standard turning point for wave/leg #2. You have just posted a chart with a declining Bullish wedge.

Quoting JeremyWS
Weekly is extremely Bearish. Massive down week last week with bearish engulfing, Bounce of trendline, Stochastics crossing over on new weekly bar open. Down trend.

can't really say much else but it is headed down the path of least resistance which is most definitely Down.

can see 104.50 as next support level that will really hold, possibly 100-200 pip bounce here / consolidation.
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  • #6,622
  • Apr 8, 2012 6:52pm Apr 8, 2012 6:52pm
Although big picture still down trend, on a very short term basis (3 days or so) one can expect EURJPY set for a typical retracement or at least on consolidation mode. Assumptions - actual price close to March lows, close to IKH cloud, oversold on 4H chart and smaller time frames.
  • #6,623
  • Apr 8, 2012 7:13pm Apr 8, 2012 7:13pm
I give up...... Guys, long term trend is UPPPPPP! Why does everyone insist it is down.
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  • #6,624
  • Apr 8, 2012 7:18pm Apr 8, 2012 7:18pm
879 SMA is a good determiner. Major DTL also on this chart. Price has tested this SMA once and we are at the trendline now. This is a typical test when going bullish.
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  • #6,625
  • Apr 9, 2012 3:22am Apr 9, 2012 3:22am
The overall trend is up.At the moment price is consolidating around DAILY SUPPORT. If that support holds we are going up from there .If the support fails we may see it down to 105.6 the area that must limit the down move and brings the pair back on its uptrend.I am in agreement with Spillini
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #6,626
  • Edited 10:21am Apr 9, 2012 10:11am | Edited 10:21am
At this juncture is too early to say this pair is going bullish, speaking on a short to medium time frame. On a swing trading maybe. Sorry for disagreement...

Good business,

https://otraderdescodificado.files.w...d_20120409.png
  • #6,627
  • Apr 9, 2012 10:27am Apr 9, 2012 10:27am
Bottom line, major trend is up.



Quoting Umbeluzi
At this juncture is too early to say this pair is going bullish, speaking on a short to medium time frame. On a swing trading maybe. Sorry for disagreement...

Good business,

https://otraderdescodificado.files.w...d_20120409.png
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  • #6,628
  • Apr 9, 2012 11:23am Apr 9, 2012 11:23am
Would any of you good people be interested in learning how to make some safe counter trades? If so I will post them when I can. They will be various pairs, not just consentrated to E/J and G/J
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  • #6,629
  • Apr 9, 2012 11:47am Apr 9, 2012 11:47am
Quoting spillini
Would any of you good people be interested in learning how to make some safe counter trades? If so I will post them when I can. They will be various pairs, not just consentrated to E/J and G/J
No need thanks. See pls the weekly chart. Is that realy a major up trend? Hummm... On a swing trading basis, a long position is a tradable choice. I wrote this on my first post a technical rebound is expected. No more than this for now. No wishful thinking.
  • #6,630
  • Apr 9, 2012 8:16pm Apr 9, 2012 8:16pm
I feel the sentiment is bearish for eur/jpy. we've had a nice recovery since early january of almost 1,130 pips. My equipment indicates a ramifying of curves on the downside. We could see this pair trade lower in the early days of summer.
  • #6,631
  • Apr 9, 2012 9:23pm Apr 9, 2012 9:23pm
This is a good example of long term trend continuation. 4Hr......we got a 5 candle Morning star formation after Bullish divergence. Daily we got a confluence coming off the 200 SMA and the 38.2% Fibo retracement level on top of a beautiful Morning star formation there forming also.. Someone is going to show me a lot of evidence instead of just saying they believe we are going down. I back up my words with cold hard facts....See below.
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  • #6,632
  • Apr 10, 2012 2:36am Apr 10, 2012 2:36am
Quoting spillini
Someone is going to show me a lot of evidence instead of just saying they believe we are going down. I back up my words with cold hard facts....See below.
Still 2.5 hours left on this 4 H candle.... is price enough evidence to show it is going DOWN ?

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  • #6,633
  • Apr 10, 2012 3:12am Apr 10, 2012 3:12am
or how about this system?

doesn't often give trade signal, but when it does, can go for long time

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #6,634
  • Apr 10, 2012 5:20am Apr 10, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Erebus
or how about this system?

doesn't often give trade signal, but when it does, can go for long time

I agree on your approach wich looks like a trend follower, always a reliable choice. But instead waiting for daily signals, I would prefer to work with signals on a 4H chart, after taking a look on a big picture trough a weekly and daily charts. By this way one can't miss two or three days of profits. Itīs only a opinion.

Best regards,
  • #6,635
  • Edited 7:24am Apr 10, 2012 6:48am | Edited 7:24am
too much bear power limited the upmove which did not even reach the 38.2 fib level..so i doubt the correction is over already... a possible scenario now is an expanded flat or even an abcde..at least if price wants to continue down further it should make a wave c and visit 107.4 again
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  • #6,636
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:41am Apr 10, 2012 10:41am
Hi again traders...

An Elliott Wave count for your review...

I have been looking for price to reach 10460/70's since my post to this thread on March 25th... that call on the 25th preceeded roughly a 500 pip decline, so far...

this is a broader perspective of why I have chosen this target zone...

besides what is listed as confluence on the chart, I have 4 more fibo measurements/projections that put significant target levels in this zone as well... so I have 11 or more measurements telling me that this zone is likely to be important to price... a trader only needs to look left on his charts to see that it has been important in the past

And I have some timing mechanisms pointing to tomorrow +/-2 (daily chart) for price to paint a low that may be in place for awhile.

I am looking for a bounce in the next 2 days from this PRZ (price reversal zone)

I definately look forward to feedback from fellow EW traders if my counts are incorrect...
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  • #6,637
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:07pm Apr 10, 2012 12:07pm
your last 5 wave sequence seems to make more sense than mine ... but usdjpy has build a bullish bat 4h and daily so one driver to further decline might end here if the pattern works out
  • #6,638
  • Apr 10, 2012 1:51pm Apr 10, 2012 1:51pm
Hey old buddy, You know this push down is just knee jerk spike from the news, right? My stop is in the same place it always was down around 105.00. Always thought that we could see this level again, but didnt think we would, I will admit that. But the news lately has pushed it on down. Lets see if it rebounds from here. Trend is still considered up as long as the 89 SMA doesnt get breeched and retested from underneath and hols as resistance. If it goes down, then it goes down.I


Quoting torkay77
your last 5 wave sequence seems to make more sense than mine ... but usdjpy has build a bullish bat 4h and daily so one driver to further decline might end here if the pattern works out
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  • #6,639
  • Apr 10, 2012 2:46pm Apr 10, 2012 2:46pm
yeah, yen strength could be mainly caused by carry trade unwinding cause euro is not going down.. i hope they stop unwinding soon cause i scaled in already in some yen pair long trades
  • #6,640
  • Apr 11, 2012 11:54am Apr 11, 2012 11:54am
Support building for longs on the 1 hr TF. Now you know why my stop is below 105, but we are loaded for bear.
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