EurAnalysis

I will post a link to a report I get every day. It lets us see how the news of Friday is viewed by analysts. At least this one. EUR/USD will test 1.3050 soon.

Like Now OOPS !!!

http://www.kingsviewfinancial.com/commwire.php
The Commodity Wire





April 7, 2012 in 'The Commodity Wire'





'The Commodity Wire' by Al Abaroa'The Commodity Wire' by Al Abaroa



Market Perspective: Opening Day came upon us this past week, and for us Marlin fans, it came with a new stadium, a new team name and some new players. It’s the time of year that we watch our favorite players and teams go on exciting streaks of good fortune and sometimes misfortune. For the economy, an important streak was broken on Friday. The monthly employment data for March came in under the weakest of analysts’ guesses and broke a six month string of job growth. The release still posted a net gain for the month at 120,000 jobs, but that was well below the 200,000+ streak of the past three months. As I mentioned in last week’s Wire, the job numbers were due to be released while nearly every U.S. market would be closed for Good Friday. While exchanges were closed, some electronic markets did trade through the morning hours. Specifically, the 30-year Treasury Bonds and the E-mini S&P 500 were trading during the release of the data. The E-mini stayed open for 45 minutes after the report and bonds stayed open until noon. The E-mini shed 10 handles and Bonds advanced nearly 2 ½ basis points after the release of the data. These are fairly large moves and are quite possibly over exaggerated by light trading volume. However, the market movements are following the prognostications of The Great Bernanke. Just last week, during his media blitz, he warned us that gains in payrolls may slowdown as economic growth might be moderate over the short term. During a speech on March 26th he said, “Significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.” The Fed’s stance that rates will remain at basically zero until late-2014 was basically confirmed by the statement. What isn’t clear is whether there will be further quantitative easing to nudge the economic expansion into a higher gear. It seems as though the likelihood of further easing increases or decreases with each and every economic data release and speech given by the Chairman. The January FOMC meeting took away hopes of an impending announcement of QE, and then again in late February at his testimony in front of the Senate Banking committee. As I mentioned earlier, the recent warnings on job growth may now be a catalyst to increase the odds of further easing. And finally, the February FOMC meeting minutes released this past week showed that only a couple of the voting members were still in favor of further easing measures. In my opinion, the market action shows investors are aware that the FOMC committee is sitting on a “wait and see” approach for at least the next few meetings. By waiting, they will be able to review jobs data for March and April, as well as inflation and industrial production. If the jobs aren’t able to reignite the streak, then one might anticipate the Bernanke Put to be once again placed under the market. In the meantime, markets will be looking to the onset of Q1 earnings’ season to lend some guidance as ALCOA starts us off on Tuesday. And, Monday will likely be interesting as the markets will get their first real opportunity to trade the known news from Friday’s jobs data. Some U.S. stock market indexes are already breaking or near testing trend lines dating back to last October. Perhaps the stock market’s remarkable 6-month streak may also be coming to an end. We’ll see…

I am sitting at my trading desk and for a Sunday night we are getting good movements. I speak about correlations and other facts that I use to do my forex trading. We start off reaction to the NFP in Japan. The EUR/JPY has fallen from a High of 1.0784 prior to the release of NFP and now trades at 1.0623 which is a drop of 161 PIPS. It might test the base of the Ichimoku cloud at 1.0610 and the 200 day MA at 1.0599

EUR/USD has come down from the High After NFP from 1.3112 to 1.3037 NOW as I post and that is a drop of 175 PIPS. On Friday EUR/JPY was coming down while EUR/USD was moving up. When I saw that I shorted it and got out shortly thereafter.

The point that I make is about the correlations. Look at charts of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY and you will see for yourself.

Risk Off Sentiment and concern for EZ growth leads the way.

EUR/USD has hit a low of 1.3032 and we will see if 1.3000 is tested. If EUR/JPY comes from 1.0627 to below 1.0599 then so will EUR/USD go with it to below 1.30000 most likely.

Forex News Calendar For April 9 ~ 13, 2012

by Henry Liu on April 8, 2012



All major market moving events last week were from the U.S., starting with FOMC Minutes on Tuesday which shattered market’s expectation for another round of QE, followed by a NFP release figure that was much lower than even the most bearish analyst’s forecast… as a matter of fact, because of this release, speculation for QE3 is once again alive.

Here’s the detail of the release:
March Nonfarm Payroll: 120K versus 205KE
March Private Payroll: 121K versus 215KE
March Manufacturing Payroll: 37K versus 20KE
Birth-Death Adjustment: +90K

Basically the market missed NFP forecast by 85K, and had Friday been a full liquidity day and not a holiday, we would have seen at bit more volatility, although now traders are waiting for Sunday open to react to this release. What we can safely assume is that this release brings doubt to the U.S. recovery, and combining that with the recent comments by Fed presidents and Chief Bernanke, market is likely to sell-off on the USD on the chance that another round of QE…

Therefore, I’d remind everyone to use caution this week, as market needs time to react to this release, so expect Monday and perhaps Tuesday to be sentiment driven, and then expect activities to fall back and follow the general weaker USD trend…

http://www.henryliuforex.com/6207/fo...ril-9-13-2012/

http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index


80.22

+0.13

(+0.16%)


01:24 GMT

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/


That's it for tonight... Sweet Dreams and Good Trading. I am all posted out...

Not that it takes away from your point (which I believe was that we are getting good movement, and finally a real reaction to NFP), but this is actually a drop of 75 pips, not 175.

.

I normally don't make mistake with numbers and I appreciate your pointing out my mistake. My main point is the correlation and the effect of USD/JPY on EUR/JPY and as a result of that there is a bias as EUR/JPY moves up and down to EUR/USD.

The first three currencies on my platform are EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.

That lets me see the movements in all three PIP by PIP.

Good Evening. I just checked in before bed and saw your post. Take care.

Possible Lower,There is no reverse sign yet on daily

Today half of the world is closed.
All Christian countries are celebrating second easter day.
Jews is celebrating freedom of slavery from Egypt and Egyptians likewise.

Liquidity is very thin so I don't think much will happen before tomorrow.

Good morning! Looking back at this weekly chart, the situation seems obvious, we have more room down. As you can see, almost everytime there was such a sell-off like this, the next week the selling continued with almost no retracement. So, my bias is down this week, until we at least touch the 1.29 barrier. Good luck and trade safe!

oups, this is the chart:

Good morning everyone.
I hope you all had a great weekend.

I see that instead of testing the 1.3140/60 area, price instead went down to retest the 1.3030 area once again but is now back up almost to Tokyo open levels at 1.3070 area. (Possible double bottom which will be confirmed if price breaks above Friday's close)

As Finney pointed out, half the world is still on holiday and we probably will not see much today. However, I'm still going to watch what happens as I don't want to miss any opportunities.

Whoever is trading today, choose your entries wisely as I strongly believe that the full reaction to Friday's NFP number has not been seen yet.

Here is Daily, with levels that I draw on H4 / Daily.
As PT said, no retest of 3140/3160 area so far, which would be 38.2 fibo level of 3370 - 3030 drop (@ 3160). 50 fibo at ~3200/05.

At 3030/3025 we have a Suport level and a Support TL. Probably a boring day, because of holidays. No real pullback so far, so I will watch levels an PA from time to time.

Good morning PT. It is good to know that you keep an eye on markets, so we rest can have our holidays.

I'm going to stay out of the terminal today to spend some time with family, but mean time take a look at numbers of Target system(can be found in CB balance sheets). Today they look quite cruel. ECB's Target dept to Bundesbank (German Central Bank) has risen over 500 billion - almost doubled within a month.

Private money has escaped from crisis countries and public money is replacing it - now Eurozone governments carry risk of fiscal debts of countries in crisis.

That is really not good development.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1333727410.php



By Richard (Rick) Mills
Ahead of the Herd

As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

Trade imbalances - deficits and surpluses - between nations are one of the major reasons for financial crises. Countries become trapped in a vicious spiral – they accumulate debt because they are sustaining a trade deficit, the bigger their debt grows year after year, the harder it becomes to generate a trade surplus.
Only the countries with a trade surplus have any room to manipulate policy, there’s very little debtor nations can do.
In 1942-1943 John Maynard Keynes formulated a solution. His answer was to “persuade” the creditor nations to spend their surplus money back into the economies of debtor nations.
His proposed creation, the International Clearing Union, would be a global bank and issue its own currency, the Bancor, a supranational currency to be used in international trade as a unit of account exchangeable with national currencies at fixed rates of exchange.
The bancor would be used to measure a country’s trade deficit or trade surplus. Every country would have an overdraft facility equivalent to half the average value of its trade over the past five years. Any country racking up a trade deficit of more than half of its bancor overdraft allowance would be charged interest on its account, have to reduce the value of its currency and prevent export of capital.

Conclusion:

A Single Global Currency: Is it Feasible? By S. Korra, B. Gopal and S. Gollapalli
“For almost 2,500 years, countries across the world have experienced multicurrency foreign exchange (FX) transactions and its erratic currency fluctuations. The daily turnover in currency markets rose to $3.2 trillion, which was more than 10 times the world GDP. Daily volumes of cross-currency swaps grew by 281% between 2004 and 2007. International corporations were participating more actively in FX market. The US dollar remained the prominent currency in the FX market covering two-fifths of daily transactions. Emerging market currencies were also gaining equal significance on the FX front with 20% of all transactions by April 2008.
Turnover of foreign exchange options and cross-currency swaps more than doubled to $0.3 trillion per day. Though the multicurrency FX market stated a surge of 71% in volume since 2004, it was associated with various costs.
Transactions costs in currency trading were very huge at $400 billion in 2007. Frequent speculations in currency trading resulted in currency fluctuations and in extreme cases led to currency crises. On the contrary, these expensive costs in forex transactions would not be considered in the 3-G world (a Global Monetary Union, with a Global Central Bank and a Single Global Currency - Rick). The 3-G world is the implementation of a single global currency to be managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union. The successful examples were the euro and the dollar.

"Since 1934 almost every United States Secretary of State has been a CFR member; and ALL Secretaries of War or Defense, from Henry L. Stimson through Richard Cheney…nearly ALL presidential candidates have been CFR members. President Truman, who was not a member, was advised by a group of "wise men," all six of whom were CFR members, according to Gary Allen. In 1952 and 1956, CFR Adlai Stevenson challenged CFR Eisenhower.
CFR candidates for president include George McGovern, Walter Mondale, Edmund Muskie, John Anderson, and Lloyd Bentsen. In 1976 we had Jimmy Carter, who is a member of the Trilateral Commission, created by David Rockefeller and CFR member Zbigniew Brzezinski with the goal of economic linkage between Japan, Europe, and the United States, and: "...managing the world economy...a smooth and peaceful evolution of the global system.
We have also had (though his name strangely disappears from the membership list in 1979) CFR director (1977-79) George Bush, and last but not least, CFR member Bill Clinton.” William Blase, The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and The New World Order
President Obama has surrounded himself with CFR members ie Susan E. Rice, is a prominent member of the Council On Foreign Relations and serves as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations and is a member of President Obama's Cabinet. Rice will lead the U.N. Security Council and is considered a leading contender for secretary of state if Obama wins a second term.


Conclusion
With a global government not yet in place how will the process of a global currency be accomplished? The process is already well established (and unrecognized by most) with the advancement of regional currencies such as the Euro, SUCRE (South America), floating the idea of the AMERO (US, Canada and Mexico), the Franc of the African Financial Community, an Asian currency and a Arabian Gulf regional currency.
Once 147 national currencies are five or so regional currencies, with most of the world’s population involved, it’s a logical step down to one global currency built around the regional currencies.
It isn’t if we get a global currency, it’s when, the only question being will gold play a part?
The Dream of a World Currency, Interview of Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa by Alberto Orioli
“AO: Thus the lesson for the future is a single currency, as China is asking for?
TPS: As a former central banker, I think that when you talk about global standards, you should first think about monetary standards and then about legal ones, because that is a functional economic fact, even though it rests on a legal basis. In other words, I do think this crisis poses the problem of a new international monetary standard. Its absence, and the absence of the discipline that it would impose are one of the deep reasons of the present crisis.
AO: Once the currency was pegged to gold...
TPS: If that peg still existed, in the last few years the countries that were accumulating big external deficits - such as the United States - should of had to convert a part of it into gold; the consequent scarcity of gold reserves would have obliged them to change their course.”
Today no country is on a gold standard and all currencies are fiat. If a future fiat global currency were to be put in place without full, or at least a hefty partial gold backing, then we’d simply be repeating Bretton Woods - the 1944 US dollar failed reserve currency experiment - except it’d be on a much grander scale.
A future 3-G world, and a re-introduction of gold into the global monetary system, should be on all our radar screens. Is it on yours?
If not, maybe it should be.
Richard (Rick) Mills

We're in Cha-Cha Zone.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/

Gold Is Up and Watch EUR/JPY with USD/JPY

If Risk is Off EUR/USD could test 1.3030 and 1.3015 and 1.3004 and then 1.3000

As PipTrapper said holidays create thin markets and Bernake speaks tonight at 7:15 PM in Atlanta.

But, on a daily chart, we still see the 50% level holding. Thus, a retest of the 1.3160-90 broken TL could happen before we go down again.

Thanks Kno,

Bernanke has his speech at Georgia Conference. It is not a statement and it is in closing time of NY, so I don't think it makes lot of movement in EURUSD.

Main areas I keep eye on this week: