EurAnalysis

It now looks like a retrace to 1.3160 is in the cards. Let's see what happens when it gets there.

120K vs the 205/207k expected is not good.
The fact that we got a soft number and the rate dropped from 8.3% to 8.2% indicates that more Americans have given up looking for work (reduced labor participation)

If this gets a negative spin, we shall see this spike up fade and safe haven seekers move capital to US dollars, but not quite yet.. well maybe now but I think we will test 1.3150/60 first. It's hard to gauge it in this thin market. Monday may give us better clues as to direction.

The expectations were high for a number 200,000 or better. My GUESS was 150,000 and the NFP number was 120,000.

The US Bond Yields are now .32% and 2.07% for the 2 Year and 10 Year US Bonds. An incredible flow of money into the 10 Year US Bonds which went from a Yield of 2.20% to 2.07%

EUR/USD shot up and I did two shorts and am out. I shorted at 1.31088 and 1.30923.

Understanding what is going on allows you to know why EUR/USD shot up and then reversed.

PERCEPTION changes to REALITY and Risk is back off...

DollarYen
Inside Range Break Down

As you can see by the US Bond Yields as Asset Classes such as the Dow is sold off then US Dollars are used to buy US Bonds however money does flow into other currencies. Look at EUR/JPY which has come down from 1.0711 to 1.0673 yet EUR/USD has gone up.

That is because of USD/JPY and Risk Off and always watch EUR/CHF for INTERVENTION which should move EUR/USD up

There are many many different forces at work here. I will be careful of many factors today unless you understand what movements are occuring. Your charts just reflect the money flows and cannot predict them. They are helpful to see a picture of movements.

The reason that I short EUR/USD at 1.31088 was because I understood what was going on. The EUR/USD at the time was trading out of character for many reasons.

I hope this post gives you some insight into the money flows and thus the change in the charts.

I added to this post on edit and I have closed my two positions with profits since markets are thin and over the weekend things will be reviewed and we need to see how this news is spun and what the markets do next week.

I am finished for today. Take care and be well.

...and there we have it. At least for today anyway. Between now and Tuesday I will be looking for a move up to 1.3140/1.3160 area. If so and it runs out of steam at that level, I will most likely add a short position there.

If price does not make it up to that level, so be it. I've already got two nice shorts running in solid green

Here the hint am give to you sir,

Nobody can predict the future and market
But one thing,Market would decided a new trend every week,if today the Daily Body ( No Wick & Shadow one ) close 50% above the previous candle then we might see bullish on next week

Regarding EuroSwissie
This will keep going down 'IF" there's no Intervention from SNB side,Market are naughty and hungry

The retracement on 1.31 could be finished. While the price is above 1.303 the correction is moving no more to 1.313. Then breaking 1.303 fib target are 1.2978, 1.2935, 1.289. Any of this targets can be touch and then we return at least 1.32. . Great move on my yens today.

Closer look

Here is the US jobs data breakdown by industry sector.
Credit goes to forexlive.com. With many thanks



Have a great weekend everybody.
Till Monday then

"Few men are willing to brave the disapproval of their fellows, the censure of their colleagues, the wrath of their society. Moral courage is a rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is the one essential vital quality for those who seek to change a world which yields most painfully to change." - Robert F. Kennedy -

This week's COT report from the CFTC

(Non-Commercial)

EUR shorts 79K vs 89K prior
JPY shorts 65K vs 67K prior
GBP shorts 8.8K vs 11K prior
AUD longs 49K vs 59K prior
CAD longs 29K vs 23K prior
NZD longs 6.1K vs 3.9K prior
CHF shorts 15K vs 15K prior


http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

I think I need to give this some more attention.
To be honest I've never looked into it.

No forex today :-)

Happy Easter to you also.

I use Saturday's to read and review what has happened in the forex market and the world in the last week.

I start my review after reading this excellent article from a good source of information and knowledge.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...iss_Franc.html

I will refer to this link shortly.

I was not surprised to see the jobs number at 120,000 on Friday.

Most of the market was and that was a NEW Perception changing number.

We have yet to see the market reaction to it in the Equities markets since they were all closed for the holidays.

However we did see the amazing short term move into US Bonds with the rate on the 10 Year US Bonds going to 2.07% from 2.20% within seconds of the number being released.

For the moment that happens everytime we have a large Risk Off moment. That is because there is usually only one place large enough to park ASSETS in moments of uncertainty. That happened last year on the changing of the US credit rating by the rating agencies. When I say one place more to the point there is a sense of security there with Yields not being the issue just safety.

We are now entering the END GAME and therefore even this will start to change.

Here is some snippets from the article above and I will conclude my thoughts after sharing the following informed observations.

Greyerz - Gold Bottom, $25 Trillion in Debt, ECB & Swiss Franc...

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News that around the world, the average debt to GDP is at a staggering 350%. Egon von Greyerz is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland. Von Greyerz also stated that even if the number was cut in half, to 175% debt to GDP, it would require the elimination of $25 trillion of debt. But first, here is what Greyerz had to say about what is happening in Europe: “Yesterday the Swiss franc came very close to the 1.20 level versus the euro. This is happening because bad economic news is coming out of Europe. Industrial production is falling and Spanish rates versus German rates, there is now a 4% gap, now people are getting worried about that again. So they are buying the Swiss franc.”

Kno's Comments: As I started to point out above about placing money in the US Bonds for safety other places are now being looked at such as the Swiss Franc.

This also includes the Yen as can be seen by the rate of USD/JPY now moving back towards 80.00 again. (81.54)

“The problem is that Switzerland is expanding its balance sheet like every other central bank. Switzerland is no better off, and to buy Swiss francs is not the solution. These investors are now attacking the euro/Swiss franc spread.



By doing that they are increasing the deficit of the Swiss National Bank because the Swiss are having to spend more and more money to protect their currency. So investors buying the Swiss franc is actually very bad for Switzerland. These investors are totally mad if they think that is protection for them....


Kno's Comments: It is important to understand the reality because market forces will soon take over no matter what governments say and even INTERVENTION by the FED and the ECB will not be enough to keep the GAME going. We are at the start of the END GAME.

Here are the conclusions of the article and then my own closing thoughts.

Both the ECB and the Fed, they are in total denial. Here you have a week when the ECB said, ‘No more support to the eurozone governments.’ Well, these governments are all hemorrhaging. Without additional financing, they will go under.



The ECB, so far, in the last few months, has given them 1 trillion euros, but as I said in my last discussion with you, my estimation is they will have to give them tens of trillions of euros.



People are now worried about Spain. Portugal is the same and every country in Southern Europe will go through the same thing.

Unemployment is rising fast. These countries are going through austerity programs, which means their budget deficits will increase, not decrease because every single economic figure is declining.



So, these countries cannot survive without more money. Therefore, as I said, the ECB is in denial because it will only be a very short time before they will need to print again. It’s the same with the Fed and the FOMC minutes. The are saying no new asset purchases.



Well, it’s ridiculous because here you have a country that is not doing anything to cut down on its deficits. Consequently the US deficits will continue to increase at an accelerating rate. So, the Fed will absolutely be forced to print money.



This money printing, whether it happens today or tomorrow, it’s actually ongoing all of the time. We see it in all of the central banks balance sheets worldwide. They are all expanding. They might pause for a few weeks, but it is absolutely clear that they will continue to print. Participants in the gold market shouldn’t believe a word of what the central banks say.



The bottom line is investors must protect themselves with gold because QE will continue and it will accelerate. The average debt to GDP around the world is something like 350% and that excludes the unfunded liabilities. That’s total debt, private and government debt.



Even if we cut that 350% figure in half, to 175% debt to GDP, it would mean a reduction in debt, worldwide, of roughly $25 trillion. This just reinforces the point that governments will need to print in the tens of trillions of euros. Keep in mind this is the current situation, without any further disasters in the derivatives area.”

Kno's Closing Views:

Most of the FOCUS has been on Europe and NOW the focus will return to the USA as well. Here are the matters that have to be watched.

The markets reactions to the jobs number of 120,000 on Friday. The reaction to EUR/CHF being at 1.2002 and what will the Swiss do about it ?

Will there start to be another call for more stimulus because of the job situation in the USA ?

Will money KEEP going into the US Bonds or will there be a return to the Higher Yields of 2.40% for the 10 Year US Bonds as we had very recently ? There is great uncertainty in the markets and this leaves confusion. The FED and the ECB are running out of bullets and worse than that they are losing CREDIBILITY by the second.

The next three months heading into the Summer and IMPORTANT Elections in Europe and the USA will cause things to happen that not one person in this universe can safely predict.

I share my views here however only those that invest the time and effort to understand on their own by reading and observing and being aware can then take the view as their own. I might change some of my views and observations depending what unfolds in front of me. When you have a grasp of the bigger picture and you understand the nature of the POWER STRUGGLE going on in this world of ours you can use common sense and knowledge to get an EDGE on where matters are going.

I know some here only like to focus on the technicals. My opinion on that is well known here. All the knowledge and understanding that I have acquired has very little to do with watching the lines go up and down. You can get a very false sense of confidence by thinking patterns will repeat.

In the end Money Flow and the valuation of Assets whether correct or not will move values.

What happened on Friday is ther BEST EXAMPLE of that.

As soon as the number was released those trading EUR/USD saw a SPIKE UP and perhaps assumed it would keep going up. I was ready to take advantage of the CONFUSION and short EUR/USD at the right moment.

US Bond Yields were going down as the US Futures went to down 120 and EUR/JPY went from 1.0711 to 1.0673 while EUR/USD was going up and that made NO SENSE.

We had panic, confusion and Short Covering in a Holiday thin Forex Market.

Now ALL BETS are off for me until I see what happens in the next few days.

I really hope traders find my observations helpful as we get ready for a new trading week.

There is a saying by Einstein that I Love.

"INSANITY IS DOING THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AGAIN AND EXPECTING DIFFERENT RESULTS"

If your methods work whatever they are and you make money trading Forex then keep doing the same thing.

If not, see with RESPECT the remarks above.

Happy Easter and Happy Passover And Peace And Goodwill To All Humans.

Always held "Bobby Kennedy" in great respect for being an intelligent and decent human being and a brave politician.

This adds another high layer of respect for him for being a Philospher (of a very high order) as well.

I posted the quote because I respect it and try to live it as well. It sometimes is very difficult to go against the masses. The book that I recommend here from time to time, "Think And Grow Rich" makes similar points. Those that win in life are free thinkers that live their life without being concerned if they have approval. We only learn life's lessons if we take some risks and follow our dreams not someone else's.

I also had great respect and still do for JFK. How the world might have been different if he was not killed.

Peace Out...Enjoy and thanks for the comments.

The markets face another week on relatively easy street in terms of Treasury supply. Even though the Treasury is auctioning a big slug of longer term paper, it is paying down bills. Thursday will see a cash paydown to the market, and the big note and bond settlement a week from Monday will see only $23 billion in new paper, which is about half of the usual mid month supply hit. The government has benefitted from a surge in tax receipts toward the end of March and in early April. If that continues through April 15, then overall, April will be a light month supply wise.

The market only had about 40 minutes to react to the expected weak jobs report in the stock index futures. The reaction wasn’t what I expected. I had thought that a bad jobs report would be like ringing the bell for Pavlov’s dogs as traders salivate in anticipation of the next treat from their handler, Ben. The guys trading the futures didn’t agree with me, and they dumped.

Holding down yields during note and bond auction week is Job One for the government and its co-cartel members the Primary Dealers, who still hold record long positions in their longer term Treasury portfolios. So I think they’ll be happy to have more bad news to keep the cash flowing into the government bond market. With no big economic releases coming this week, the best way to do that is to shake the stock market tree.

The public is still buying bonds like mad and the markets are getting renewed help from the foreign central banks and the commercial banks in the last 2 weeks. That could underpin a return to a bullish tone for stocks once the big Treasury auctions are out of the way on Thursday. All in all, the pattern looks weak for stocks and strong for bonds early in the week, with Thursday afternoon shaping up as an opportune time for reversal.

FROM The Wall Street Examiner...

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/0...or-treasuries/
A Week on (Relatively) Easy Street for Treasuries