EurAnalysis

Awesome PT

haha No way. I have to nurse my E/U shorts. Besides... what would I do without my EurAnalysis family?

Now that we've pretty much kissed the neckline of the daily h/s pattern, we should get a moderate bounce upward.

If what I see on the M5 chart turns out to be an inverse H/S, then the target for the bounce upward should be around 1.3130 area

The 61.8% fibo retrace level of the move down from today's high sits at 1.3113 and the 78.6% fibo retrace sits at 1.3135 which also coincides with the broken rising channel support. This broken support should also technically be retested at some point.

However, despite all the above technical sense, I just cannot see that happening in this session. Perhaps we shall see it in the Asian session and in early Europe before the NFP report. After the NFP, it's anybody's guess. It all depends on the number and how the futures markets react. (I say futures markets because floor trading is closed tomorrow)

As usual, time will tell.

You think markets will react like it should or a free for all since the big boys are Easter egg hunting... You know how this acts on holidays

All I'm going to assume at this point is that we have a daily H/S pattern that has fully formed and short of a little bounce upward from here, the next move should be down.

If price goes on a rampage due to very thin trading and heads to 1.33, then obviously all bets are off. This is something we have to deal with "IF" it happens. I'd rather not think in those terms until I see it.

1.31 to 1.315 still a posibility. Then 1.30, 1.298.

Opened BUY EUR/USD on 1,30625 TP 1,31257 SL 1,29982

Greek anger at death: ‘We will all commit suicide’

"The death of the 77-year-old retired chemist has triggered an outpouring of sympathy in the country."

"The dead man has been named in Greek media as Dimitris Christoulas. In a suicide note, he said he was driven to kill himself as he preferred a dignified end to being reduced to rummage for food in the rubbish."

Spain

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/bloomb_chart.png



Do you remember when there was a European banking crisis? It was a “whole” several weeks ago (not years) so that makes it quite difficult to remember. Hmm, what was it that almost “brought the global banking system to its knees?” Was it Greece? I can’t seem to recall; after all, March 2012 was a long time ago – don’t you agree?

That’s right! It was Greece. It was insolvent, then it was saved, then it was insolvent again, then it was saved, then it was insolvent again…then the banking mafia literally rewrote the rules of the game (bond sales) and screwed bond holders out of ~80% of their money and issued newer bonds to replace the old insolvent ones. Oh, and the new bonds are already nearly worthless.

During that time, if you recall, I constantly reminded everyone that this so-called “ring fencing” and/or “savior” plan wouldn’t last (again, the new bonds are in a huge loss position) and that there was worse news out there: Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and possibly Italy.

Well, the on-again off-again insolvency game is perking up in Spain and this is one country that is said to be too big for the ECB to save.

For over three years now the sole source of “stimulus” for European and US economies, and thus the stock market rally, has been from money printing and central planning of the respective central banks. The market was scared today when it looked like the spigot of “free” money may be shutting off. Spain held a bond auction and the best word to describe it is “caca.” I guess in Europe they were saying “STOP! Don’t touch that (auction), it’s caca.”

The auction was so bad it caused Spain’s 10-YR bond yield to spike 4.46% today. This is turn spooked equity investors as they wondered “Why aren’t the central planners buying up this garbage? Don’t they know they have to buy this worthless paper to keep me happy so we’ll stay long equities?”

Bloomberg had the I placed at the top.

Also from Bloomberg today “Spanish Yields Reach 12-Week High on Auction

Spain sold 2.6 billion euros ($3.4 billion) of bonds, near the minimum planned, and borrowing costs rose as the impact of European Central Bank’s emergency lending waned. Bonds and the euro declined.

…Spain’s financing costs had been held down by the ECB’s 1 trillion euros of three-year loans to banks, known as the LTRO, some of which have been recycled into high-yielding government debt. Yields had declined as much as 95 basis points after ECB President Mario Draghi announced the policy on Dec. 8 and Spanish banks’ holdings of government debt jumped to 220 billion euros in January from 178 billion euros in November.

“It’s back to reality now, the auction shows the LTRO effect has been exhausted and now demand for Spanish paper is becoming much more price sensitive,” Peter Chatwell, a London-based fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole Investment Bank, said in a telephone interview. – Keith Jenkins, Bloomberg.

By the way, Italian bonds spiked today too (+4.13%) and it is an even bigger financial mess than Spain.

From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

A Golden Idea


April 5, 2012, at 6:03 pm

by Jim Sinclair in the category General Editorial |


Dear Friends,
What we need is the second coming of a determined trader so convinced of his/her opinion and feel for the market that taking on the gold banks would seem like a divine calling.

The same stuff we see today went on in the great gold bull market of the 1970s. Then I was a kid in my mid 30s with more guts than is usually good for ones financial health.

I watched the gold dealer’s brokers, then of Phillips Brothers and J. Aron, running the living hell out of the gold gang with the locals jumping on the bandwagon the moment the dealers showed their selling interest. I also saw the same quietly covering by the brokers for the dealers taking back their sells after they had bullied the market lower, exactly like the Goldmans and their pals do today.

The difference between today and then was there is no one with cajones that are big and well financed enough to say enough and take them on for mega profits. I learned from the dealers and used UBS and DB to do my largest buying.

I fought them at key technical points only. The second time gold tried to come up through the $400 level I was long 19,000 contracts. I had run the locals every evening for two weeks making their shorting a losing proposition.

Someone bought information from Bache and Company, my clearing agent, to find out what cash I had. Down went gold through $400 with the gold dealers selling.

I had to preserve my cash so I had to dump 9000 contracts. This dump was not by a margin call as I never permitted that to occur. I called myself well before the close.

All of sudden in comes DB at $380 buying with both hands and feet and it was not me. I went out using my own floor traders to openly buy back 9000 at the market price and added an additional 5000 in Chicago.
Gold in that market never went under $400 again, but rather made it’s great run to $887.50 with the formerly short gold dealers leading the charge.

Believe me, you can run the gold banks if you have the courage, knowledge, money and guts to take them on. You could flip their algorithms against them, therein hanging them with their own rope.
What we need is Maximus, the financial gladiator, and gold would break $3000 on the upside 90 days from the start of the reverse strategy. The gold banks are far from omnipotent if you know how to play their game on them.

Light the flame inherent in this market and the gold market will bullishly run over central banks, the IMF and anyone that opposes it. You will shift the gold banks to the long side as I did to get to over valuation.
If you are out there and want to turn a billion into a few trillion do I have a golden idea for you. It is all timing and intimidation.

Respectfully,
Jim

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...nical-analysis

I am not going to name names, but I would imagine those who have been following the gold and silver markets for quite some time, know who I am talking about. That being said, I don’t blame them one bit. Trying to make short term calls based on technical analysis presently has become nearly impossible when the markets are constantly manipulated. I think it is time that we all just realize a monkey throwing a dart at a trend line on a wall is just as useful as short term technical analysis.

There are only a few technical analysts that I respect. They gain my favor due to the fact that they use technical analysis to forecast future inflationary trends. Those who are still predicting deflation in their charts may need to find other employment as their calls have been wrong time and time again.

Furthermore, I am completely surprised by the psychotic nature of the so-called RISK ON & RISK OFF TRADE. Doesn’t anyone take the time to stand back for a minute and just look at what is going on? Does anyone see the insanity of it all? It is simply amazing to watch grown adults place bets one day, and then take them back the next – a trend which occurs over and over again.

I decided to take a stab at my own version of technical analysis as it pertains to the silver market between April 2nd and April 4th.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...4-apr-2012.jpg

If we follow the numbers, we can get a clear picture of what took place in the price of silver over the past three days. In number 1, we see the typical RISK ON – RISK OFF trade. This is shown in the SAD FACE PATTERN. On April 2nd, after silver added $0.70, the line of resistance occurs at the bottom of the EAR LINE LEVEL (number 2). Following the FOMC meeting which occurred the very next day, the market responded appropriately by taking back all bets knocking the price of silver back down to the very same level it was the day before… this is shown in number 1 & 3.

Once trading commenced during our favorite early London Markets, the Neck Line was broken and the price of silver dropped all the way down to the BELLY-BUTTON SUPPORT LINE. This can be found looking at the number 4 chart description. We are going to have to wait and see if this support line is broken in the next several days. If so, the next line of support will be at the BELT LINE and below that is the next support level at the KNEE LINE.

If the price of silver can rally from here, the first line of resistance will be the NECK LINE followed by the BOTTOM EAR LINE.If we can take out both of these levels, there is no resistance until we reach the top of where the BASEBALL CAP LINE would be.

All kidding aside, I do believe it’s time for the precious metals community to move their focus away from short term technical analysis and to concentrate on fundamentals and long term trends instead. (The chart above was courtesy of Kitco.com with my added comments)

This Hedge is different from the original HEDGE. HEDGING is a Super Skill, there are Fund Managers who does HEDGING do you think they do not know Trading?

Now with this Hedge I agree with you, it can only able to increase the Risk in to the power of x. And of course if you think you can fool the market by doing Buy and Sale always then that can not be the best way of increasing the Equity.


ADD: “If you shut your door to all errors truth will be shut out.” -Rabindranath Tagore

Sorry Guys! I did n't meant for the same day. Somehow, I am not feeling that we get the optimum point for the Sale, I don't think US data is encouraging enough to drag this pair to the bottom of the earth pit. I would wait for booking a long term position some where near completion of half of the calender year.

I still believe Point of Sale for this pair is yet to come for 2012.

Me alone! ... and who are they?

Today's Main event.

Better than yesterday.

how is singapore buddy

Not sure for now .. by next month program will be confirmed. Don't worry in anyways I'll come and meet ya

Yay