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  • #6,601
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:13pm Apr 2, 2012 9:13pm
I like the way forex-live called the stop hunt on the U/J, but they are probably close to being right on. after that huge 4hr candle drained the stops in a hurry, a lot probably jumped right back in only to be eleiminated by this last knee-jerk move down.

the keY here is this spike was on almost non exsistant volume. This is a sign that buyers are flooding the market.
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,602
  • Apr 3, 2012 1:16pm Apr 3, 2012 1:16pm
What a crock. I hope you guys have been listening to me about counters. If your short you are about to get a first hand look at why you should stay with the trend. Dont let them fool you, this was all planned. the drop off this morning after pushing to 109.76 area was likened to leaving your fishing rod opened and the dumb bass takes your bait and runs with it. well you let him. And then at a time when he is not expecting it, like for instance, the slow time of the after noon, you set the hook and reel him in. That is what they are doing right now. shorts will probably get burned..... and maybe, just maybe, that 4 hr triangle will go down later.
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,603
  • Apr 4, 2012 10:22pm Apr 4, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting spillini
Its got to rest....I mean nothing travels in a straight line. I think we push up thru that in next day or so. A man would have to be a complete loon to be short any pair tied to the Yen.

1st chart is originally posted on this thread on March 26... page 438 or 439 I believe

The second is from today... easy to see that the original call worked itself into a triangle/wedge style pattern and the expanded flat potential ended up just that (so far) - potential...

the Stochs still looking pretty bearish on the daily charts...

By the way, I am a complete loon (just ask my ex-wife...lol) - I took a Short on Mar28 and gathered 211 pips (after taking some heat)... love that divergence play

I am done shorting this pair now though...
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  • #6,604
  • Apr 5, 2012 9:31am Apr 5, 2012 9:31am
no worries here mate, my stop is still below the major low at the 105 area. The pair pulled all the way to the 76.8 Fib level. i wasnt expecting that deep of a plunge, but the Aussie news drove it down a bit. like I said, no worries, long term t/P is still at 113. BTW, I am loading one more buy at this level.



Quoting deanoracer
1st chart is originally posted on this thread on March 26... page 438 or 439 I believe

The second is from today... easy to see that the original call worked itself into a triangle/wedge style pattern and the expanded flat potential ended up just that (so far) - potential...

the Stochs still looking pretty bearish on the daily charts...

By the way, I am a complete loon (just ask my ex-wife...lol) - I took a Short on Mar28 and gathered 211 pips (after taking some heat)... love that divergence play

I am done shorting this pair now though...
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,605
  • Apr 5, 2012 10:01am Apr 5, 2012 10:01am
Just want you all to keep in mind that I trade longterm Daily/Weekly timeframes. Your directions may not always correspond with mine. I will always be in the direction of the Daily/Weekly trend and sometimes it takes weeks for my profits to come to pass. However, the more they pull back against my direction, the more lots I can add at will and when my T/P does hit they are awesome.



Quoting spillini
no worries here mate, my stop is still below the major low at the 105 area. The pair pulled all the way to the 76.8 Fib level. i wasnt expecting that deep of a plunge, but the Aussie news drove it down a bit. like I said, no worries, long term t/P is still at 113. BTW, I am loading one more buy at this level.
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,606
  • Apr 5, 2012 10:10am Apr 5, 2012 10:10am
Quoting deanoracer
1st chart is originally posted on this thread on March 26... page 438 or 439 I believe

The second is from today... easy to see that the original call worked itself into a triangle/wedge style pattern and the expanded flat potential ended up just that (so far) - potential...

the Stochs still looking pretty bearish on the daily charts...

By the way, I am a complete loon (just ask my ex-wife...lol) - I took a Short on Mar28 and gathered 211 pips (after taking some heat)... love that divergence play

I am done shorting this pair now...
You appear not to understand Spillini.He is position trader making use of higher time frame that is less noisy.Your analysis is on intra trading and you have picked 211 pips , fine, those of us that long this pair will have our trade delivered also.As long as the support holds.
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #6,607
  • Apr 5, 2012 10:26am Apr 5, 2012 10:26am
Quoting biodunola07
You appear not to understand Spillini.He is position trader making use of higher time frame that is less noisy.Your analysis is on intra trading and you have picked 211 pips , fine, those of us that long this pair will have our trade delivered also.As long as the support holds.
oh ya, gotchya... totally understand... these screenshots are daily charts... my trade was actually quite a bit longer than intraday, more of an intra-week trade... but I understand exactly what you are saying...there was no intention on my part to create arguementative dialog guys... was mostly hoping a fellow EW trader might comment in regards to pattern recognition...

as I said in earlier posts, my anticipation is for the move to continue higher once the corrective pattern is complete... so I have been in agreement w/all of you during this entire discussion... I certainly do not want to buy this pair if my analysis says to wait... so I wait, and got some pips on the way down... no biggie guys
  • #6,608
  • Apr 5, 2012 12:35pm Apr 5, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting deanoracer
oh ya, gotchya... totally understand... these screenshots are daily charts... my trade was actually quite a bit longer than intraday, more of an intra-week trade... but I understand exactly what you are saying...there was no intention on my part to create arguementative dialog guys... was mostly hoping a fellow EW trader might comment in regards to pattern recognition...

as I said in earlier posts, my anticipation is for the move to continue higher once the corrective pattern is complete... so I have been in agreement w/all of you during this...
You are great my brother, I can now understand you better.
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #6,609
  • Apr 5, 2012 12:51pm Apr 5, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting biodunola07
You are great my brother, I can now understand you better.
....... success to us all... good stuff!!!
  • #6,610
  • Apr 5, 2012 1:43pm Apr 5, 2012 1:43pm
I appologise if you all thought I was trying to start trouble. That couldnt be farther from the truth. I just didnt want anyone to mistakenly jump in the wrong way, thats all. I love the way you all connect in this room, so dif. from other rooms. The jerks havent joined us yet and I am keeping fingers crossed.
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,611
  • Apr 6, 2012 6:03am Apr 6, 2012 6:03am
Non Farm......another crock. For our long direction we need to see 210k or higher. less than 207k and we could see a drop.
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,612
  • Apr 6, 2012 6:24am Apr 6, 2012 6:24am
this is worst case scenario: if we are in subwave 4 of a 5 move down leg it probably would mean we are in a bigger wave 1 down.. to validate this any upmove should be limited up to 108.6 area ...but i still doubt this is a bigger wave 1 cause it would probably mean we go nearly all the way back down to the 102 area.. we would need more negative fundamental driver for this than we have now ..if we see a clear break above 108.6 this wave count is invalidated and we see further correction going on
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  • #6,613
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:40am Apr 6, 2012 8:40am
What a crock.... market manipulation at its finest. who would have thought they would miss by that much and can not believe something that bad wasnt leaked before time. I would guess that this was a huge stop hunt, but thats all it would be, just a guess. Anyway, we absorb the draw down once again.
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,614
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:06am Apr 6, 2012 9:06am
Quoting spillini
What a crock.... market manipulation at its finest. who would have thought they would miss by that much and can not believe something that bad wasnt leaked before time. I would guess that this was a huge stop hunt, but thats all it would be, just a guess. Anyway, we absorb the draw down once again.
Spillini, Is possible for a retest of 105.70 area because my equity will not be able to support my trade in case there is a retest.I am a long time trader as well.
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #6,615
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:37am Apr 6, 2012 9:37am
Hi Traders...

just an updated chart of this pair... many of us have discussed this chart and anticipation over the last several days...

Good stuff... and again... thx for the great dialog guys...

So then... the chart is not meant to begin any type of arguementative conversation... I just try to get out in front of price with pattern recognition. This is just how I see it... thats it, no biggie...

This approach did keep me from any long positions beginning with a posted chart in this thread back on Mar26... This is the same chart, with updated notes, target zones and possible wave counts...

I welcome feedback from fellow EW traders as I continue my journey into wave counting and chart pattern recognition

Oh Ya... HAPPY FRIDAY ALL!!! I hope you all enjoy a great weekend...
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  • #6,616
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:44am Apr 6, 2012 9:44am
That its probably where we are headed now. This is a Daily correction and 105.88 would be 38 % Fib retracement level. Probably get a nice bounce from there, but you never can tell with NF, besides, it could turn at the inside bottom which is 106.56 and that is where we are now. Take Daily chart and pull in some candle data and look at the past support for this level. Its pretty strong, but if it breaks than yes, your 105.7 area would be next point.


Quoting biodunola07
Spillini, Is possible for a retest of 105.70 area because my equity will not be able to support my trade in case there is a retest.I am a long time trader as well.
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,617
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:44am Apr 6, 2012 9:44am
after nfp it looks like this for me... seems we are finishing wave 1 now...so what should follow is corrective wave 2 zigzag.... grey area is opportunity to look for a buy, possible tp areas are marked as well
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  • #6,618
  • Apr 6, 2012 10:35am Apr 6, 2012 10:35am
Quoting spillini
That its probably where we are headed now. This is a Daily correction and 105.88 would be 38 % Fib retracement level. Probably get a nice bounce from there, but you never can tell with NF, besides, it could turn at the inside bottom which is 106.56 and that is where we are now. Take Daily chart and pull in some candle data and look at the past support for this level. Its pretty strong, but if it breaks than yes, your 105.7 area would be next point.
Thanks for your prompt response.It is of great help.I will be looking forward to adding more funds to my equity.
With patience and discipline,you move beyond the sky
  • #6,619
  • Apr 7, 2012 11:26pm Apr 7, 2012 11:26pm
At last we finally agree...LOL. Here is some added confirmation in the form of 4 Hr divergence.



Quoting torkay77
after nfp it looks like this for me... seems we are finishing wave 1 now...so what should follow is corrective wave 2 zigzag.... grey area is opportunity to look for a buy, possible tp areas are marked as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Please do not vouch for me.
  • #6,620
  • Apr 8, 2012 12:57pm Apr 8, 2012 12:57pm
Weekly is extremely Bearish. Massive down week last week with bearish engulfing, Bounce of trendline, Stochastics crossing over on new weekly bar open. Down trend.

can't really say much else but it is headed down the path of least resistance which is most definitely Down.

can see 104.50 as next support level that will really hold, possibly 100-200 pip bounce here / consolidation.
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