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EURUSD

  • #621,061
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:38pm Apr 4, 2012 4:38pm
Just Getting back, goona hit the sack.

Still Holding The Long

Will post Account Summary when the trade closes.

Need some serious sleep
  • #621,062
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:43pm Apr 4, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting monkey@forex
although the probability of getting a sensible answer on this thread is extremely remote, i am going to ask a question and pray someone gives me a clue...

im looking at the positioning on oanda, and the last week theyre were 70% traders short on euro, so i expected price to rise to screw over the shorts...instead price has done a 200 pip drop, now we've got 50% people long...

so is the oanda information a) wrong b) worthless c)im intepretating it wrong
Why would you think that if more people are short it is a sign to go long? The whole 95% of retailers fail myth is rubbish and a lot of retailers are better than the market and in fact (i believe the oanda one is done via monetary value not number of positions) so the people with bigger accounts influence it more as they are (most likely) to be better traders.

So to conclude I think that you are interpreting it wrong, if more people are short then sentiment is to the downside and thats where it will trade after all it only goes where we the traders make it go.
  • #621,063
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:47pm Apr 4, 2012 4:47pm
Well said.

ps. Are you really 16 ??
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #621,064
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:53pm Apr 4, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
Does anybody else see the bull trap being set up right now? Or am I too sober and it's affecting how I see the charts? I'm seeing this still going down to around 1.3075-80, after this consolidation period.
Jj posible and i am clear 0
  • #621,065
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:53pm Apr 4, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
Does anybody else see the bull trap being set up right now? Or am I too sober and it's affecting how I see the charts? I'm seeing this still going down to around 1.3075-80, after this consolidation period.
I guess the next move will go to 1.3070
  • #621,066
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:56pm Apr 4, 2012 4:56pm
Thanks for the answers, i wanted to use it as a clue but no point in using a flawed tool, and especially if my understanding of it is also flawed...
  • #621,067
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:09pm Apr 4, 2012 5:09pm
tf15 small up move then into bull pennant and bull flag, but i dont think it will be much of a breakout if it does it may happen within next 15 to 30min. to upside. Will see.
  • #621,068
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:09pm Apr 4, 2012 5:09pm
I am in the process of finishing
THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS
CONVERSATIONS WITH
AMERICA'S TOP TRADERS
JACK D. SCHWAGER

I am paraphrasing one of the top Traders who made billions yes billions
Bill Lipschutz: The Sultan of Currencies

"Tech analyses is secondary to market sentiment."
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #621,069
  • Edited 6:30pm Apr 4, 2012 5:24pm | Edited 6:30pm
Quoting Patternz
tf15 small up move then into bull pennant and bull flag, but i dont think it will be much of a breakout if it does it may happen within next 15 to 30min. to upside. Will see.
Tokyo will give a hand hope they will correct wath they yesturday messt up ! And than have i a rest
  • #621,070
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:39pm Apr 4, 2012 5:39pm
Quoting Patternz
tf15 small up move then into bull pennant and bull flag, but i dont think it will be much of a breakout if it does it may happen within next 15 to 30min. to upside. Will see.
you think we will see it hit 1.315 at all?
  • #621,071
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:50pm Apr 4, 2012 5:50pm
Quoting monkey@forex
Thanks for the answers, i wanted to use it as a clue but no point in using a flawed tool, and especially if my understanding of it is also flawed...
The trading tool you mentioned is also used by FXCM i.e. SSI which is a contrarian indicator.

Not sure whether they have more clients compared to Oanda, but if majority is short, I would still be hesitant to put in another short (especially if I'm late in putting in the short (not from the start of the trend)).

Basically, I don't use it as a tool by its own to decide where I want to go (short or long), but use it more as a final confirmation.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #621,072
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:56pm Apr 4, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting 4rextrader
you think we will see it hit 1.315 at all?
Me too
  • #621,073
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:02pm Apr 4, 2012 6:02pm
Rsi(14)30min chart last 10 hours//? Could somebody send here a rsi14 from 16.02.
  • #621,074
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:16pm Apr 4, 2012 6:16pm
Quoting Davit
I am in the process of finishing
THE NEW MARKET WIZARDS
CONVERSATIONS WITH
AMERICA'S TOP TRADERS
JACK D. SCHWAGER

I am paraphrasing one of the top Traders who made billions yes billions
Bill Lipschutz: The Sultan of Currencies

"Tech analyses is secondary to market sentiment."
Valid to a point, "True" tech analysis would incorporate market sentiment,
Market Sentiment is seen clearly in "raw" pa / your charts in front of you, sadly this becomes clouded, everytime you add a bs lagging indicator, Ive seen charts posted with some much bs on board, couldnt even see PA let alone read it.

Example, xx pair is a freight train, clearly heading south, hr after hr day after day, large juicy bear candles, minor hiccups every now and then, but a freight train no less
Indicators pick anyone you want, all flat lining, off the bottom of your screen, oversold, then heavily oversold, then extremely oversold, then oversold like never before, then fuk like noway can it be sold anymore oversold.

PA is clearly showing a frieght train heading south

Indicator is clearly showing its time to be buy

Market Sentiment is clearly showing a frieght train heading south.

Which one you going to listen to?????

Tech Analysis of Raw PA will show market sentiment

Question how many trader here have had little flashing thingys, indy graphs etc etc etc screeming buy buy buy , whilst market is steaming south, and had their butts burnt, red pips, stop lossess clipped, money lost????

Who do you think is collecting those red pips, stop losses , money, ??
It is the people riding the train south

When PA / Market Sentiment move north, and becomes freight train, same thing in reverse.
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #621,075
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:16pm Apr 4, 2012 6:16pm
Quoting Patternz
tf15 small up move then into bull pennant and bull flag, but i dont think it will be much of a breakout if it does it may happen within next 15 to 30min. to upside. Will see.
Well it was a small one bout an 8 pip break.
  • #621,076
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:24pm Apr 4, 2012 6:24pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
Valid to a point, "True" tech analysis would incorporate market sentiment,
Market Sentiment is seen clearly in "raw" pa / your charts in front of you, sadly this becomes clouded, everytime you add a bs lagging indicator, Ive seen charts posted with some much bs on board, couldnt even see PA let alone read it.

Example, xx pair is a freight train, clearly heading south, hr after hr day after day, large juicy bear candles, minor hiccups every now and then, but a freight train no less
Indicators pick anyone you want, all flat lining, off the bottom...
I am new to Forex.Learning fast.I am 48yr old ex sports gambler for 5 yrs.
Difference of gambling and speculating is having an edge.
Lot has been written about psychology of trading however one can think positive all day long but having no edge still will lose.
Edge means all you have written and more.I use indicators mostly MA's and TDI as guidance but not blind trading tools.
PA is king.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #621,077
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:29pm Apr 4, 2012 6:29pm
Quoting 4rextrader
you think we will see it hit 1.315 at all?
Tuff to say im not an expert but on tf4hr looks like a retrace is starting to happen, i think it will go up the fib lvls possiblly to the 50 or 61.8 and if bearish sentiment holds then it should drop back down.

Then tf1hr possible bear pennant indicating another move south within the next hour or 2. Thats what i see. But i'm going to stay out till i see a good breakout.
  • #621,078
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:30pm Apr 4, 2012 6:30pm
Quoting Patternz
Well it was a small one bout an 8 pip break.
Wait a little longer.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #621,079
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:30pm Apr 4, 2012 6:30pm
THE CHART SAYS TO HOLD

I WILL BE HOLDING MY LONG to 1.3420 adjusted TP from 1.3270

Im gonna get some serious sleep - Im burnt out badly- between the hospital and these 3 hour intervals. We'll talk tomorrow @9PM EASTERN - Thursday - IF I WAKE - If you Bears take my pips - congratulations, well deserved, we all have to share but you'll have to give me back some on a future trade ok.

Remember, DONT TRADE WHAT I TRADE and please keep a track of the PIPS lost and I will be posting my ACCOUNT SUMMARY when the trade closes.

Total PIPS made so far OVER ALL are 294.4 since the start of the trading week, total lost so far none. (knock on wood)



HDA OUT

All of you who had PM me, I will try to respond over the weekend
  • #621,080
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:34pm Apr 4, 2012 6:34pm
So which way this this thing will go ???
_________________ Don`t fail when you walking fine line ...
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