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Sonic R. System

  • #32,941
  • Apr 2, 2012 2:51pm Apr 2, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting jdtrader
why did you short this? The most recent leg didn't even come close to going through the dragon, not even reaching mid point
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1332900366
I've seen you mostly only enter trades that go all the way through, otherwise you would be entering many many more trades, but you haven't been entering those kind of trades. So why this time?
Quoting jdtrader
You are so good at hitting target points! What is your secret?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...10#post5520310
As I stated, it was a Scout trade, not a classic SonicR trade. As for TPs, I like to see where the current intra-day swing last started, and look for a 1/4, half, 3/4 or whole number that is 100+, 150+, etc. away from that. Then place the TP on the nearest side of that line. Unless things are slow, in which case just looking for the end of the next full Level interval beyond the interval the EP is in (i.e., 25 + pips). I use historic PA, intra-day swing status and Levels to gauge where to put TPs.
  • #32,942
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:23pm Apr 2, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Entered short (EP= 1.3363). Showing M30 because this is a Scout trade and it is based on the engulfing M30 candle preceding this current candle, as well as what I perceive as stopping volume several hours back and again now.
So are we posting all trades we are taking? Even non sonic setups or am I missing something because you keep mentioning over and over that nobody should be posting non sonic setups as it confuses users here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post5526450
  • #32,943
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:26pm Apr 2, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting traderathome
As I stated, it was a Scout trade, not a classic SonicR trade.
I didn't see mention of the word scout anywhere around when this trade was posted, which is why I got confused. Am I missing something?
  • #32,944
  • Apr 2, 2012 4:29pm Apr 2, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:
Entered short (EP= 1.3363). Showing M30 because this is a Scout trade and it is based on the engulfing M30 candle preceding this current candle, as well as what I perceive as stopping volume several hours back and again now.
Quoting jdtrader
I didn't see mention of the word scout anywhere around when this trade was posted, which is why I got confused. Am I missing something?
Firstly, I very clearly stated "...this is a Scout trade and..." and how could you have missed that if you read the entry post?

Secondly, the Scout (SC) trade is of Master Sonicdeejay's origin on this thread and is therefore appropriate to post. You can learn more of it by going back to about mid May 2011 and read Sonicdeejay's posts from there, where he mentions some of his SC trades.
  • #32,945
  • Apr 2, 2012 4:32pm Apr 2, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting traderathome
GU:

Entered short (EP= 1.6049). This is a Scout trade. Price was moved up in concert with the GBP release. Next is the USD release, at which point price might fall, if it doesn't start to do so beforehand.
can you define what a scout trade is? purely a trade entry based on support and resistance and entering at those levels? How are you trading this scout method? It appears sonic and you are on board with scout trades, so I'm sure others are interested what the rules are. Thanks TAH!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post5532947
  • #32,946
  • Edited 11:13pm Apr 2, 2012 5:59pm | Edited 11:13pm
Quoting jdtrader
can you define what a scout trade is? purely a trade entry based on support and resistance and entering at those levels? How are you trading this scout method? It appears sonic and you are on board with scout trades, so I'm sure others are interested what the rules are. Thanks TAH!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47#post5532947
Sonicdeejay, in his own way and in a number of posts, presented the concept of the SC or Scout trade. I suggest you follow my recommendation to read his posts directly.

My understanding of the Scout trade is that due to PA either ending a very strong directional run or repeatedly bumping at S or R, and in either situation there being very high current volume, the odds are increased for a reversal. Or, at least for a very nice pullback. The Scout entry, imho, is very much "perception" oriented. Sometimes a quick entry looks appropriate, but that involves a counter-trend entry in the midst of trend momentum. So waiting for some additional PA/confirmation for a move in the opposite direction is often the best thing to do, and involves a counter-trend entry after trend momentum may have given up the ghost. This has nothing to do with using the Dragon here to locate an EP area because PA can be far removed from the Dragon. The anticipation is the next move will be back towards, and maybe thru, the Dragon.

The Scout trade is very high risk compared to the SonicR trade for the obvious reasons: currently there is no counter-trend momentum to support your counter-trend entry, and you are guessing the direction of the next momentum will be counter-trend.
  • #32,947
  • Edited 7:58pm Apr 2, 2012 7:11pm | Edited 7:58pm
Quote
Puzzling statement.

1. Please show symbol ID in your posts so present and future readers will know what you are talking about.
2. What is the criteria for "see(ing) where are the trap traders.."?
__________________

1- Yes, sorry- Done now.
2- Trap traders are not my personal concept, sure you read about that in the Book Time Compression (Jason Jankovsky) - Lance Beggs (course YTC) and Order Flow trading by DS.
Usualy the trap traders are the breakout traders who buy at the top and sell at the bottom.
This is good example , today in stock CAT simbol- you can see how breakdown traders hit they orders and the market reverse fast, making all this under water
They are forced to liquidate adding more force to moving up.
And today EU at the top.

In relationship with the trap, you sure remember different type of block if orders , that exist at any level of S/R.
Mostly when the price had reach this level many times.
Mostly in higher time frames.
When the price is near going to reach this level , you can see 2 "usualy" type of traders.
1- Traders who put a limit orders to sell ( at the R level) and PUT the BUY stop loses order above 20-25 pips away.
2- Traders who put long orders buy (breakout) above the Resistence line.

This areas have great interest for BB, becuase they can hit all BUY stop loses orders selling a lot of orders without moving price. Then market reverse trap the breakout traders.
In the chart you always will see the same.
The R level is broken with big fast candle y fast reverse with high volume.
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  • #32,948
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:13pm Apr 2, 2012 7:13pm
Looks like that EJ really went down yesterday. Well we see another scenario today. Just like master sonic said. Let's the market decide.
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Money Management and Patience is the Key
  • #32,949
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:37pm Apr 2, 2012 7:37pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Selling may be over done..
Not pos for me,,

I still hold grand pa long from 1.30xx with protecting my profit by SL @1.324x


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRfuAukYTKg

Sonic
Woah..

I have a Double told cha within a day (24 hrs)..

First.. I warned about EU @ 1.337x for their possible weakness..
It didn't went down for a 80 pips..

And

When it was at 1.329x, I said selling has possibly over done 9 hrs ago.. U know the rest..

What a day..

Good morning..

Sonic
  • #32,950
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:48pm Apr 2, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Woah..
I have a Double told cha within a day (24 hrs).. First.. I warned about EU @ 1.337x for their possible weakness..
It didn't went down for a 80 pips..And When it was at 1.329x, I said selling has possibly over done 9 hrs ago.. U know the rest..

What a day..Good morning..
Sonic
Here is what is on my mind.....
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  • #32,951
  • Apr 2, 2012 7:51pm Apr 2, 2012 7:51pm
Quote
When it was at 1.329x, I said selling has possibly over done 9 hrs ago.. U know the rest..

The market usually donīt move in the same direction 3 session.
After sell off for London time, NY reverse and close in the middle of the range.
Great advise , thanks !
  • #32,952
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:06pm Apr 2, 2012 8:06pm
I canīt take, but......
(If Iīm wrong any comments are welcome- thanks!)
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  • #32,953
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:18pm Apr 2, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting successlife
I canīt take, but......
(If Iīm wrong any comments are welcome- thanks!)
Your entry is a bit late. On the other hand, it is not during the London session, so the trade would not be recommended.
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  • #32,954
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:19pm Apr 2, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting traderathome
Here is what is on my mind.....
Possible..
1.329x seems strong support.. If it broken strongly.. More slide ahead..

we have NFP week.. Gonna be fun..
Sonic
  • #32,955
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:50pm Apr 2, 2012 9:50pm
Quote
Your entry is a bit late. On the other hand, it is not during the London session, so the trade would not be recommended.
Thanks TAH ! I see more clear with your chart.
  • #32,956
  • Apr 2, 2012 10:00pm Apr 2, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting successlife
The market usually donīt move in the same direction 3 session.
After sell off for London time, NY reverse and close in the middle of the range.
Great advise , thanks !
U r welcome..

Sonic
  • #32,957
  • Apr 2, 2012 10:42pm Apr 2, 2012 10:42pm
Quoting traderathome
Sonicdeejay, in his own way and in a number of posts, presented the concept of the SC or Scout trade. I suggest you follow my recommendation to read his posts directly.

My understanding of the Scout trade is that due to PA either ending a very strong directional run or repeatedly bumping at S or R, and in either situation there being very high current volume, the odds are increased for a reversal. Or, at least for a very nice pullback. The Scout entry, imho, is very much "perception" oriented. Sometimes a quick entry looks appropriate, but...
I read every post Tah, just remember, but if I ask something, it is because I may have missed something unintentionally or didn't understand it, which is why I ask. I don't skip over anything especially what you and sonic post. Please remember this.

Thank you for such a great explanation of the scout. Makes a lot of sense. Thanks!
  • #32,958
  • Edited 11:54pm Apr 2, 2012 10:52pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting jdtrader
I read every post Tah, just remember, but if I ask something, it is because I may have missed something unintentionally or didn't understand it, which is why I ask. I don't skip over anything especially what you and sonic post. Please remember this.

Thank you for such a great explanation of the scout. Makes a lot of sense. Thanks!
Here is an example of a possible Scout opporunity. Note the increasing volume as the price rose to previous day highs. This is not to say that price won't go higher. In fact, because it might is why Sonic often gets on my case about entering too soon. Ideally, we need to see something in the way of confirmation that trend up momentum has given up the ghost and that price might start sliding back down in earnest. In this case, maybe wait on the FO/LO and see what happens.

If the Scout opportunity is missed by waiting, i.e., PA suddenly plummets, then we await a SonicR short setup later.

Edit: Well, you can see what happened about 60 minutes later.
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  • #32,959
  • Apr 2, 2012 11:26pm Apr 2, 2012 11:26pm
Should this trendline fail to hold, I won't be shorting the Stock Market any time soon (or Gold or Oil or many things for that matter).

IF it does break down and then fail to recapture it, a further break under the 78 pivot would be really bearish for the good ole' buck.

Just my thoughts and what I am watching on the bigger TF's, I can't comment on 15min with SonicR as I'm not set up yet, soon I hope. I figured this was going to take awhile to play out and indeed it has, I'm thinking by Thursday though market tips its hand. I'm secretly rooting for the buck but it doesn't look so hot right now and I'm starting to think it has a meeting with 78 whether I like it or not (I will play this either way, this is just what the chart is saying to me right now especially if we don't bounce here like now!).

The Eur has already started breaking above its TL, but this one here is the big one IMHO. So many things rely on the Greenback...

GLTA this week
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  • #32,960
  • Apr 2, 2012 11:52pm Apr 2, 2012 11:52pm
Quoting jayjonbeach
Should this trendline fail to hold, I won't be shorting the Stock Market any time soon (or Gold or Oil or many things for that matter).

IF it does break down and then fail to recapture it, a further break under the 78 pivot would be really bearish for the good ole' buck.

Just my thoughts and what I am watching on the bigger TF's, I can't comment on 15min with SonicR as I'm not set up yet, soon I hope. I figured this was going to take awhile to play out and indeed it has, I'm thinking by Thursday though market tips its hand. I'm...
This is interesting. And it is the kind of situation the big players in the market just love, I imagine. Now, they can press the USD even harder to encourage a whole lot of folks to trade against it (seeing as how it is at the precipice) while they take the USD bull side of everything they can get their hands on before they make the dollar fly!
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