EurAnalysis

Congrats and happy tanning...

Price nicely find its corner ... now retrace down and touch 1.325x

I don't think the retrace will happen today. I believe the pair will reach and possibly break the 1.34 level, however,at the bare minimum it should test it and if it fails to crack it, then I see that retrace possible for the earliest late tomorrow into Wednesday.

have you seen what equities and commodities are doing? Until they cool off, this puppy is either up or sideways IMO

perfectly steup to go down, it just need a catalyst, someone through a bad news..someone should do

Don't worry. As soon as Draghi says "Good Morning" on Thursday, it will probably drop... or perhaps even tomorrow when the FOMC meeting minutes are released.

ADD: Wow... I didn't even realize I surpassed 5000 posts. I obviously have too much to say

Anyone out there, let me know if you've noticed the same thing ... I seem to notice that we'll see price extremes roughly between 5 am and 11am on an almost daily basis, with the acceleration of the move happening in the EST over night hours. For example, I believe sometime Friday morning we saw a peak with the price with it hitting a low earlier this morning with the acceleration of that down move happening in the overnight hours. And same case when the price movement was up a few days before that. ... Looking at pivot points, I think we'll see it easily reach 1.3380 but now it seems 1.34 might be tough since the last recent high was 1.3394 I believe. Thoughts?

It has been happening for over 2 weeks now almost on daily basis with exception of few days. We have atleast 4 failed tries at 1.34. It may give another try in asian session tomorrow (highly unlikely though) but if it does and breaches 1.34 then I doubt it coming down unless there is real good news for usd.

Yep. That's the European session. Lately the Euro has taken dips during the Euro session and recovered after Europe closes while NY is still trading. It's not a reliable pattern though as it only applies to the last two weeks.

1.34 will be tough to reach as there are massive offers around 3380 to defend the 1.34 no touch barrier options in play at the price. Furthermore, there is not that much buying interest in the Euro anyway. The moves we have been seeing lately are more related to dollar dumping as equities and commodities rally into their "ticking time bomb" bubble. Three straight month of rallying definitely makes investors and traders nervous to the point that at the first sniff of weak data, they start taking profits.

According to the CFTC's COT report, the Euro is still net short but the net short positions have been steadily declining week on week. Therefore it looks like the tides are getting ready to turn. Caution is warranted on any Euro longs at this point. Quick in and out is key, or as I like to call it "Snatch and Flee"

I heeded your advice and closed my position. 40 pip gain. It's just to stagnant right now that I don't want to be surprised by any random jerks in price during the asian sessions and early european sessions. ... I still believe it will ultimately try to test the 3380 level sometime tomorrow early morning but its quite possible that it might drop back to the 3290 level first later this evening before doing that so if that happens I'll reenter long, otherwise wait for the short setup tomorrow.

$EURCAD and $USDCAD were the pairs to play today. Strong Canadian dollar sent these two tumbling.

Need to pay closer attention to them...

ADD: Didn't get much of a tan, it's only 7 celcius here and on the motorcycle it feel like -10! Ride was short.

Price found support in the 1.3300-280 area again, bouncing strongly in tone with equities. Now, it's testing this broken trendline short term I'm biased until further support downwards at 1.3250-30.

Congrats PT...that obviously means we have a lot to read, thanks for starting this thread..

Glad I listened to PT. Euro USD pulling back. The new pivot point is around 3270 so I might wait for it to get close in asian trading and attempt a long at that point and see if I can make another 40 or 50 pips per lot overnight.

Yes it looks like USD/CAD is about to complete wave 5 of its move down. My estimated target for this pair is approx 0.9725 before it turns around and heads back up. After that I see a mid term target of around 1.04 as the Dollar finds its legs again.

The real move down should come during or after Draghi's press conference on Thursday. I fully expect him to have a dovish tone, unless he decides to lie about the EZ economy. We'll see.

Thanks Genious. Happy reading

http://countingpips.com/fx/2012/03/2...VBfoFJg8nnP8si


“And if you look away, you’ll be doing what they say.
And if you look alive, you’ll be singled out and tried.
If you take home anything, let it be your will to think.
The more cynical you become, the better off you’ll be.
Something to believe in.”
~ The Offspring, Something to Believe In ~

The recent rally has been breathtaking, however the majority of investors have missed out on a large portion of these gains as significant levels of cash have been either moved to bond funds or taken out of equity markets consistently during this rally. Let’s face it, financial markets around the world are not what they once were.

U.S. equity markets in particular are manipulated by high frequency trading which is wreaking havoc in the marketplace in terms of potential short term volatility expansions and “flash crashes” that can be isolated to one underlying stock.

In addition to the high frequency trading robots, the Federal Reserve is equally involved in the direct manipulation of financial markets through record easing adjustments. The Federal Reserve has unleashed massive amounts of liquidity while keeping interest rates incredibly low which has produced an environment where the risk-on attitude permeates the landscape.

As a basic example of the failure of recent Federal Reserve policies and their impact generally on the valuation of various underlying assets, I submit for consideration to readers a 20 year price chart of the U.S. Dollar Index.


20 Year U.S. Dollar Index Chart
http://www.optionstradingsignals.com...USDHISTart.jpg
It boggles the mind to consider that Chairman Bernanke routinely denies that the Federal Reserve has failed to maintainwhat he calls “price stability.” When looking at the chart of the valuation of the U.S. Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, most 5th graders if given the context would proclaim that the Federal Reserve has failed in their objective to maintain price stability.

This manipulation has not gone unnoticed by the average American. Now more than ever regular people are not only distrustful of domestic financial markets, but they do not trust Wall Street, and for good reason. In light of this, data compiled during the recent uptrend suggests that retail investors have been pulling money out of equities for weeks even though prices continue to move higher. The chart shown below courtesy of ZeroHedge.com illustrates the recent trend.
U.S. Domestic Mutual Fund Flows

http://www.optionstradingsignals.com...2/03/ZHart.jpg
The chart above shows the price of SPY represented as the black line and equity fund inflows/outflows as the red area. As can be seen above, retail investors have been pulling massive amounts of capital out of equity based mutual funds over the past few months as equity prices have rallied. The retail crowd, commonly referred to as sheep or courtesy of Goldman Sachs “muppets,” are selling into the rally.

U.S. Dollar Index Futures Daily Chart

http://www.optionstradingsignals.com...03/USDart1.jpg
If my expectations are somewhat accurate, the short term weakness in the Dollar will assist stocks and risk assets in a move above recent highs. In the case of the S&P 500, a move to key resistance at 1,420 – 1,450 could occur.

Readers should keep in mind that weakness could be disguised as just a consolidation near the 20 period moving average which has occurred in the past when analyzing the Dollar Index. However, I would not rule out one more leg lower before the Dollar finds a bottom.

Conclusion

Readers should be mindful that the 1st Quarter will end on March 30th for financial markets. Window dressing and portfolio painting are likely to occur next week. I would not be at all surprised to see the tape painted to the upside during the final week of March after this brief pullback that we witnessed on Thursday and Friday morning.

Money managers want to show off their returns while demonstrating ownership of key names that drove performance during the quarter such as AAPL. I expect the price action on Friday and the rest of next week to have relatively light volume and a bias to the upside.

Barring any major financial news or geopolitical event, I do not expect to see price action work below the 2011 highs in the near term. The possibility cannot be totally ruled out, but it would seemingly be a rare occurrence to see a major support level break down on the first back test attempt. We may see lower prices early next week, but if the 2011 highs hold the bulls remain in control in the short term.

The real question readers should ask themselves is if prices do extend higher and we reach my target resistance zone for the S&P 500, will the retail crowd jump in and push prices higher, or will the banks be trading with each other as a major top forms? In coming days and weeks we should find out once and for all just who the real muppets truly are.

Hi cgb, good analysis yesterday as usual ... PA swinged away from my pending Buy which could be a snipper's shot, never mind .. see ya.

Thanks Rekon. Let's hope my 'luck' continues tomorrow. Getting late here (for me) so I'll update and post my charts tomorrow.

Cheers!