DislikedOh dear, I bet I am being that stupid, thanks for your help though MinceMeat I'll try it out.Ignored
Well today was a learning curve for me, as I got my fingers burnt in Crude Oil (thankfully not literally).
I took the short trade off the first retest of the well established support level which was discussed in yesterday's webinar. This is the lower of the two marked levels shown on my chart at 104.32. As you can see from the chart, price ploughed straight through that. Just before the order triggered Tom had tweeted that he was feeling uncomfortable about the trade (although I didn't see it before I was in). It stalled at the higher of the two levels at the upper end of the zone for a while and retraced slightly within the zone, so I held on in the belief that the trade could still work. But then is shot straight back up again and stopped me out. My stop was just above the thrust candle, which was only a few pips above the second level so I was stopped out as soon as I was shown it that was definitely not going to react off that level.
My lessons?
1. Keep an eye on the wider context. Tom pointed out that amongst the things which made him uncomfortable was a D1 bullish outside bar was forming and in doing so had triggered a break of the previous day's bullish IB. Now, I know these patterns but because I don't actively trade them I hadn't spotted them.
2. The second is a lesson I should not have to learn. I had spotted this level forming last week and thought it looked good. Having it discussed further in the webinar yesterday further enthused me. When I went to place an order, I discovered that the minimum bet size for this market, combined with my desired stop size meant that I could only put on a trade with double my normal risk. I was so keen not to miss out on what I thought was a great trade, I took it. So I have now effectively wiped out twice my normal risk or, if you like, 4 times what I won on the EUR/USD gap trade earlier today. And the frustrating thing is that I knew all along that it was the wrong thing to do. But I did it anyway because I didn't want to miss out.
Considering I was on this thread just over a week ago extolling the virtues of being patient and taking the attitude of if in doubt stay out because "another trade will come along" I need to take my own advice. Perhaps it was just as well for me that this one was a loser. Had it not been, next time I might have been tempted to up my risk even further.
I took the short trade off the first retest of the well established support level which was discussed in yesterday's webinar. This is the lower of the two marked levels shown on my chart at 104.32. As you can see from the chart, price ploughed straight through that. Just before the order triggered Tom had tweeted that he was feeling uncomfortable about the trade (although I didn't see it before I was in). It stalled at the higher of the two levels at the upper end of the zone for a while and retraced slightly within the zone, so I held on in the belief that the trade could still work. But then is shot straight back up again and stopped me out. My stop was just above the thrust candle, which was only a few pips above the second level so I was stopped out as soon as I was shown it that was definitely not going to react off that level.
My lessons?
1. Keep an eye on the wider context. Tom pointed out that amongst the things which made him uncomfortable was a D1 bullish outside bar was forming and in doing so had triggered a break of the previous day's bullish IB. Now, I know these patterns but because I don't actively trade them I hadn't spotted them.
2. The second is a lesson I should not have to learn. I had spotted this level forming last week and thought it looked good. Having it discussed further in the webinar yesterday further enthused me. When I went to place an order, I discovered that the minimum bet size for this market, combined with my desired stop size meant that I could only put on a trade with double my normal risk. I was so keen not to miss out on what I thought was a great trade, I took it. So I have now effectively wiped out twice my normal risk or, if you like, 4 times what I won on the EUR/USD gap trade earlier today. And the frustrating thing is that I knew all along that it was the wrong thing to do. But I did it anyway because I didn't want to miss out.
Considering I was on this thread just over a week ago extolling the virtues of being patient and taking the attitude of if in doubt stay out because "another trade will come along" I need to take my own advice. Perhaps it was just as well for me that this one was a loser. Had it not been, next time I might have been tempted to up my risk even further.
I am assuming he is looking at a straightforward level trade, to go long off the previous H1 resistance level at 32.62ish. Tom says that this is aggressive trade - I assume that the fact there is a D1 bearish SFP makes it aggressive although I suspect Tom might say that it is not a big enough swing to be a "proper" SFP, and it is also 4th time back at a level, which suggests that price wants to go through. As Tom says, if you are not aggressive you will wait until price breaks and retests the 33.18 highs to go long.
Hugh
Hi all,
With the all gaps this week I pulled this one of the diary.... 3 Charts of a not so often played cross (at least by me).
Chart 1:
In November the AUDCAD gapped up but the market never plastered over the hole it left.
On Monday 28/11/2011 a gap of (1.02350 - 1.01790) 56 pips.
Chart 2:
Fast forward to this week. The massive gap was closed and the previously hourly support, 1.0311, tested on 29/3/2012 was hit hard after an up swing. The penetrating bar stretched up to the brief support area found when gap was being closed.
Chart 3:
The daily view from the previous gap till now. The darker blue rectangles are the gaps (November is open) and the most recent (Monday's) has been closed. The pink arrow indicates the mid-December Daily RR. The pink (or MT4 magenta
) rectangle under the most recent bar is the question.
So who want go long on the re-test and who wants go short the break at 1.0255?
Or am I just mad
Thinking either:
1. Short the break with TP at 1.0176 (the close of the November gap).
2. Wait for a possible H1 retest of the 1.03106 level with TP the same.
3. Go watch silver... nah already doing that.
With the all gaps this week I pulled this one of the diary.... 3 Charts of a not so often played cross (at least by me).
Chart 1:
In November the AUDCAD gapped up but the market never plastered over the hole it left.
On Monday 28/11/2011 a gap of (1.02350 - 1.01790) 56 pips.
Chart 2:
Fast forward to this week. The massive gap was closed and the previously hourly support, 1.0311, tested on 29/3/2012 was hit hard after an up swing. The penetrating bar stretched up to the brief support area found when gap was being closed.
Chart 3:
The daily view from the previous gap till now. The darker blue rectangles are the gaps (November is open) and the most recent (Monday's) has been closed. The pink arrow indicates the mid-December Daily RR. The pink (or MT4 magenta
) rectangle under the most recent bar is the question.So who want go long on the re-test and who wants go short the break at 1.0255?
Or am I just mad
Thinking either:
1. Short the break with TP at 1.0176 (the close of the November gap).
2. Wait for a possible H1 retest of the 1.03106 level with TP the same.
3. Go watch silver... nah already doing that.
