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  • #3,141
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:50pm Mar 29, 2012 4:50pm
After my foray into SFPs it's back to the retests...

82.63 on USD/JPY looks interesting for a short. 4 recent touches as support + 50% fib confluence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,142
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:00pm Mar 29, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting simplebeans
I just wrestled with this position for over 7 hours, was a SFP albeit a littlier one - H1, might have took it a little early in hindsight considering the minor inverse level PA seemed to have reacted to below, but could see it was ramming into some nasty pending orders. maybe smart money getting some? Not sure im expecting it to go much higher but will take something out the market ahem. Chart below for reference.
Blimey. that was some ride. Well done for holding your nerve and taking a profit in the end. Although if you'd followed the advice of exiting when price closed below the SFP bar you'd have only stayed in for 6 hours :-)
  • #3,143
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:06pm Mar 29, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
After my foray into SFPs it's back to the retests...

82.63 on USD/JPY looks interesting for a short. 4 recent touches as support + 50% fib confluence.

I am not an expert but in my opinion be careful of the SFP D1 we had today on Usd/Jpy....could be a bullish bias for tomorrow...just my 2 cents.
Patience is essential
  • #3,144
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:09pm Mar 29, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting benem
I am not an expert but in my opinion be careful of the SFP D1 we had today on Usd/Jpy....could be a bullish bias for tomorrow...just my 2 cents.

Thanks for pointing that out Benem. It's probably not a big enough swing to be a "decent" SFP, but good enough to make me pass on this after all.
  • #3,145
  • Mar 30, 2012 1:13am Mar 30, 2012 1:13am
Bump.

UJ may come into range tonight...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,146
  • Mar 30, 2012 12:36pm Mar 30, 2012 12:36pm
Quoting sam0182
EUR/AUD up and coming, solid level.

**It is a cross**
Thanks I'll keep an eye on that, some nice confluence.


http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...UD30032012.jpg
  • #3,147
  • Edited 3:26pm Mar 30, 2012 3:08pm | Edited 3:26pm
Hi

Has anyone signed up for the course that tom offers that starts this Sunday 1 April? This is to replace the 1-1 mentor that he did do with group sessions to save time. Is it still going ahead, or has it been cancelled?

I tried emailing and twitter yet can not get a response.

Thanks Flash
  • #3,148
  • Mar 30, 2012 6:36pm Mar 30, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
82.63 on USD/JPY looks interesting for a short. 4 recent touches as support + 50% fib confluence.
Quoting benem
I am not an expert but in my opinion be careful of the SFP D1 we had today on Usd/Jpy....could be a bullish bias for tomorrow...just my 2 cents.

Quoting BadgerMatt
Thanks for pointing that out Benem. It's probably not a big enough swing to be a "decent" SFP, but good enough to make me pass on this after all.
I'm glad I listened to you Benem and didn't take this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-30 usd-jpy (h1).gif Size: 34 KB


Things I think I need to learn from this are:

1. I need to pay closer attention to the D1 position. To be fair to myself I did check for D1 bias, but didn't spot the SFP because the swing was not big enough to be the sort of SFP that I would want to trade. But it was nonetheless be enough to make me wary.

2. When I look at the level again, it is certainly not A1. I'd be rather swayed by the number of touches it had had over the past week and the fib confluence, but there was not much before that and there had been bit of washing as well. That said I still think that it wasn't a bad level.

3. Even if I had decided to take it, I need to remember to cancel any pending orders that I still have in place late on Friday.

If anyone agrees/disagrees please let me know!
  • #3,149
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:44am Mar 31, 2012 1:44am
Quoting BadgerMatt
Blimey. that was some ride. Well done for holding your nerve and taking a profit in the end. Although if you'd followed the advice of exiting when price closed below the SFP bar you'd have only stayed in for 6 hours :-)
Yes some ride indeed dude, i got out in the end before departing for bed, didn't want to keep positions open overnight and it was approaching 12 midnight! In hindsight its been a pretty big move!
  • #3,150
  • Mar 31, 2012 5:55am Mar 31, 2012 5:55am
Hi Guys,
What do you think of this setup. It has taken over 3 months to come back to this level. On the daily and 4H it is retesting the resistance now turned into support and has bounced of the level.
Your comments are welcome. Though it is exotic, but herd mentality has no such differentiation.
cheers
novice198
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,151
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:38pm Mar 31, 2012 1:38pm
I'd give it a 50/50 shot. You can see on the 4hr it's already come back to that level before exploding onward. That being said, there has been some substantial time in between...however, price may want to drop to the next level down before reacting.

I trade crosses but not this one and the setup doesn't interest me. Plenty of better setups coming up on the majors.

Quoting novice198
Hi Guys,
What do you think of this setup. It has taken over 3 months to come back to this level. On the daily and 4H it is retesting the resistance now turned into support and has bounced of the level.
Your comments are welcome. Though it is exotic, but herd mentality has no such differentiation.
cheers
novice198
  • #3,152
  • Apr 1, 2012 3:38pm Apr 1, 2012 3:38pm
Definitely some gaps out there...
  • #3,153
  • Apr 1, 2012 5:01pm Apr 1, 2012 5:01pm
USD/CAD H1 SFP plus gap confluence!
  • #3,154
  • Apr 1, 2012 5:41pm Apr 1, 2012 5:41pm
Looking to buy at 1669.5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,155
  • Edited 7:56am Apr 2, 2012 3:40am | Edited 7:56am
My first trade of the week was done and dusted nice and quickly. A 20 pip gap on the EUR/USD closed within a few hours overnight for a 0.5R winner
  • #3,156
  • Apr 2, 2012 5:33am Apr 2, 2012 5:33am
Nice spider forming at the 1.3373 level. This level looks likely to break soon and would be very nice to go long on the retest.
  • #3,157
  • Apr 2, 2012 6:59am Apr 2, 2012 6:59am
The USD/CAD trade I did worked out as well which was good.

I also noticed that the Spoos had gapped up as well and hit ressistance just going on what Tom was saying in another awesome webinar that the spoos was looking bearish and I was long USD/CAD. I think that is the right way to use confluence but it worked anyway.
  • #3,158
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:07am Apr 2, 2012 8:07am
Does anyone know how you get other Futures markets on MT4 what broker to use? like nat gas and any agriculture futures etc.

I opened a Brocco trading account but my version only has FX?
  • #3,159
  • Apr 2, 2012 8:12am Apr 2, 2012 8:12am
Quoting cmmichaels
Does anyone know how you get other Futures markets on MT4 what broker to use? like nat gas and any agriculture futures etc.

I opened a Brocco trading account but my version only has FX?
Have you tried right clicking on the market window and selecting show all.

You should def have more markets than just the FX pairs.

Otherwise FXPro is another good broker for demo accounts with a lot of markets to choose from.
  • #3,160
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:51am Apr 2, 2012 9:51am
Oh dear, I bet I am being that stupid, thanks for your help though MinceMeat I'll try it out.
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