Are you a consistently profitable trader? | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Anyone consistently profitable using Expert Advisors? 45 replies

How to be consistently profitable... but I bet you won't do it 65 replies

How long did it take to become consistently profitable? 117 replies

Your consistently profitable trading style 37 replies

Consistently Profitable Signal Journal: Simple, Low Maintenance Gains 0 replies

Attachments: Are you a consistently profitable trader?
Exit Attachments

Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #41
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:21pm Mar 28, 2012 4:21pm
Quoting katrooo
no its okay,

just to make it clearer, i didnt mean the flow, like there were threads in FF where people were trying to predict the flow, stops etc.

i meant a flow which is not beiing visible to traders globally, but this flow is only visible by the desk processing it into the market.
but that flow thats visible to processing desks,transpires across the market and does give indication across the overall pricing,im positive that we can read that.
  • #42
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:25pm Mar 28, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting katrooo
no its okay,

just to make it clearer, i didnt mean the flow, like there were threads in FF where people were trying to predict the flow, stops etc.

i meant a flow which is not beiing visible to traders globally, but this flow is only visible by the desk processing it into the market.
Okay. Order flow retail traders don't get to see ?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #43
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:43pm Mar 28, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Okay. Order flow retail traders don't get to see ?

FX4
they cant see it in any way,

they only can try to PREDICT, but they will never see that GS spot trader is quoting 500mio ticket for some HF....everybody then will see it on chart but its already too late - price will be 10-20-30 pips away
  • #44
  • Edited 5:36pm Mar 28, 2012 5:09pm | Edited 5:36pm
Quoting katrooo
they cant see it in any way,

they only can try to PREDICT, but they will never see that GS spot trader is quoting 500mio ticket for some HF....everybody then will see it on chart but its already too late - price will be 10-20-30 pips away
Unless you have an account with a broker that has only large institutional clients etc. In that case, you will see the large orders coming in via that broker. The platform will show it . It is another world out there. Might be one reason brokers want the big clients' accounts: to try to have some kind of "corner" on what's happening in the market.

So what do you suggest that retail traders do to become more profitable, given the fact that they cannot see those orders?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #45
  • Mar 28, 2012 5:11pm Mar 28, 2012 5:11pm
As I've said at the beginning of my writing that I don't like writing stuff much or talking about myself,the reason is people like you Katroo makes these kind of places (websites) quite irritating, ask my friend Cloggie,I think also he had left this place ,too.
I dont get offended easiliy at all, but If you ever slightly think that you were going to offend me ,why bother to write.
I do get free time alot , because I don't work, I try to have fun.

I wish you good luck ,but I think coming to London for trading life,you've left it a bit late, stay where you're ,you'll be more useful for your company and country.




Quoting katrooo
dont take this as an offence, but from your post i would rather think that you are more newbie than former institutional trader, even more i doubt you ve ever stood on a trading floor....

you are ex senior trader with 17 years of experience, who already read almost all threads on FF, and found out that they are completely bs....wtf when did you have so much time to read whole retail forum?

you also said that traders should really get good in technical analysis to become consistent blah blah...i would say they are way too much good in TA..and...
  • #46
  • Edited 6:42pm Mar 28, 2012 6:29pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting FX4Newbies

Maybe. But, all it really takes is one bad trade to ruin an account.
Sure.....for novice, inexperienced, or rogue traders!


Quoting FX4Newbies

You don't think it is possible to have posted a loss for three months in the year and then have a gain at year's end?
Of course it is but that's not the example which was given.


Quoting FX4Newbies

Traders who don't use those methods can also have a good run and blow up in less time than it takes to say margin call!
My point exactly, therefore your 'profitable for 3 months' as a measure of consistency, success, or experience is meaningless, we're back to 'one bad trade to ruin an account'.


Quoting FX4Newbies

The point is, it is the trader that makes the specific method work.
By 'method' I'm assuming you mean strategy? To an experienced consistently profitable trader strategy is irrelevant to a certain extent, it's not the first consideration.


-
  • #47
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:34pm Mar 28, 2012 6:34pm
Quoting Custos

Just get the rest of the newbs vote on this poll and you have 90% winners, as usual FF rules, haha
  • #48
  • Edited 11:57pm Mar 28, 2012 10:17pm | Edited 11:57pm
Quoting pipmutt
Sure.....for novice, inexperienced, or rogue traders!


Of course it is but that's not the example which was given.


My point exactly, therefore your 'profitable for 3 months' as a measure of consistency, success, or experience is meaningless, we're back to 'one bad trade to ruin an account'.


By 'method' I'm assuming you mean strategy? To an experienced consistently profitable trader strategy is irrelevant to a certain extent, it's not the first consideration.


-...
Okay Pipmutt,

Let's see if we can clear this up.

Your very first post in response to the thread was...

Awww c'mon, this is FF, 95% are profitable!

So is an 'increase at the end of the month from the previous month, and this was done for at least 3 consecutive months in a calendar year.' considered being consistently profitable and your measure of success in this business? 1. How about 3 consecutive profitable months followed by 1 losing month where you gave up all the profits and then some? Or 2. how about risking 90% of your account to gain 1% for 3 consecutive months, is that ok?

Here was my response to your post:

Pipmutt,

If a trader is trading on a regular basis, I'd say it is a "measure of success in this business". Note the word "measure" in your statement. Maybe not an absolute measure, if this kind of business can ever have one, since a trader is only as good as their last trade.
How about 3 consecutive profitable months followed by 1 losing month where you gave up all the profits and then some?

Then, you just make it back and you'll have a winning year. Any trader who can have three consecutive winning months has to have some degree of trader savvy to regain profitability. That doesn't just happen in this business.

I think you can agree with that.

The two examples you have mentioned here (see the numbers in red) are extreme imho and not the norm. The goal is to establish a reasonable benchmark or "standard"...something that would represent a reasonable standard for most traders. Extreme deviations from the standard are just that. These "exceptions" do not disqualify the standard, they just emphasize it. I don't believe that the majority of traders follow those examples numbered in red.


Now to the next round of replies (you're in blue):

1. ...........since a trader is only as good as their last trade...

I think that only gets applied to signal/system/training sellers by novices, one bad call and they're outta there!

Maybe. But, all it really takes is one bad trade to ruin an account.

Sure.....for novice, inexperienced, or rogue traders!

The idea behind the original comment (1.) was that trading profitably for three consecutive months is only a measure of success...a "standard" or "norm" to demonstrate "trader experience and maturity";a benchmark for most traders as "a trader is only as good as their last trade" meaning that it cannot be an absolute, nor is it intended to be, and you have already given possible extremes or exceptions to that. Any trader is susceptible at any time which is the very reason benchmarks help. It's like having a compass in the middle of the ocean of endless directional possibilities. (What was said before ...........since a trader.... helps to keep things in the context of my train of thought at the moment).

Also, if that kind of trading is relegated to "novices, inexperienced, or rogue traders", then by default, experienced traders shouldn't go there (though it can happen), and therefore should make the benchmark and more, right? So, it can actually give some meaning to the trader about his/her level of "experience" attained.



Then, you just make it back and you'll have a winning year.

No, at best you'll have a breakeven year (if you ignore the 'and then some').

You don't think it is possible to have posted a loss for three months in the year and then have a gain at year's end? Of course it depends on what percentage is lost. Not dealing with specifics here, just a general idea.

Of course it is but that's not the example which was given.

I know it was not your example, but, depending on the trader it is doable. You first said "No...", hence my reply because you seemed so certain that it couldn't be done. My point was that any "reasonable" trader who can trade consistently for three consecutive months "should" be able to turn things around. Already addressed the ideas that your example was an extreme case...mho.



Any trader who can have three consecutive winning months has to have some degree of trader savvy to regain profitability. That doesn't just happen in this business.

What about all these martingale, averaging, no-stop, the-market-always-comes-back type of 'strategies', they can have a good run and blow up in less time than it takes to say margin call!

Traders who don't use those methods can also have a good run and blow up in less time than it takes to say margin call! And there are some who use no stops and don't blow up either.

My point exactly, therefore your 'profitable for 3 months' as a measure of consistency, success, or experience is meaningless, we're back to 'one bad trade to ruin an account'.

Back to my point...every trader's statistics are only as good (or bad) as their last trade. You selected those methods...Martingale etc. as if to say that they (the methods) will destroy a trader's chance of being consistently profitable per my choice of "benchmark". My response was to indicate that it can happen using any method, because it is the trader's consistency we're focused on, not the method. There are traders who do use "averaging, no-stop," methods and are consistently profitable. Hence the next line...

The point is, it is the trader that makes the specific method work.

By 'method' I'm assuming you mean strategy? To an experienced consistently profitable trader strategy is irrelevant to a certain extent, it's not the first consideration.

Exactly!!! To an experienced, consistently profitable trader, strategy is irrelevant to a certain extent...


So, here's the deal as I see it. I think on average, a trader using whatever method that works for them, who can have three consecutive, winning months has achieved a good measure of success. I call it a benchmark because I think most traders would agree that that achievement does in fact demonstrate that they have achieved a certain degree of savvy as a trader. As Thelws said, it took 4 years to get there...I'd say that is a great accomplishment.

I do acknowledge there are some extreme cases and scenarios, but, by and large, any trader hitting that benchmark should be able to keep it going, even if they mess up along the way. Even in TA, don't we look for trends in price...higher highs and higher lows (for uptrends) etc.? There might be a pullback (which is expected and therefore "normal" like breathing), but if it is a trend, we expect it to continue. Same for the trader. If a trader can have at least three consecutively profitable months, it is a "good sign" in my estimation. Even Newton said something similar....a body will continue in a state of motion unless....Well, if they're hitting the mark for one, two, three months....all things being equal...it shows that the trader has matured, and it is likely that they can continue to make it happen. Remember, the method is really just incidental and in some cases irrelevant and virtually non-existent .

Thanks for the banter back and forth.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #49
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:26am Mar 29, 2012 1:26am
Just my thoughts. Ever read "Fooled by Randomness"?

It is the worst kind of statistical error to say that someone is consistent simply because he has three "profitable months". The sample size is just too short and you can draw any kind of conclusions. It could simply be the person's trading method fits the circumstances during a particular period of the global economy. The book mentions a fund manager that brought the Russian Rouble at every dip, earning millions for years and years until the Rouble collapsed and he lost everything and more by refusing to cut losses.

Seriously, if one monkey (out of an infinite number of monkeys - say Planet of the Apes) managed to type out Shakespeare's Macbeth, it simply means that he is the one random monkey that Luck smiles upon. Not because he is an exceptional monkey or has a good trading method. If you want a reasonable survey, try three years.
  • #50
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:26am Mar 29, 2012 1:26am
Quoting Custos
haha, I love the ff polls. Half of the people already profitable. Just get the rest of the newbs vote on this poll and you have 90% winners, as usual FF rules, haha

I wonder why this is happening:

1) Most voters are lying because they don't even want to admit to themselves that they are losers ?
2) Most voters are lying because they sell education/signals/EAs/etc and they want the newbies to think that making profits is easy ?
3) Most voters are indeed profitable during the last three months ?
4) Most people who lose money will not vote or have already left FF ?
5) All of the above ?
6) Something else ?
  • #51
  • Edited 2:08am Mar 29, 2012 1:31am | Edited 2:08am
Quoting Amanda2
Just my thoughts. Ever read "Fooled by Randomness"?

It is the worst kind of statistical error to say that someone is consistent simply because he has three "profitable months". The sample size is just too short and you can draw any kind of conclusions. It could simply be the person's trading method fits the circumstances during a particular period of the global economy. The book mentions a fund manager that brought the Russian Rouble at every dip, earning millions for years and years until the Rouble collapsed and he lost everything...
Amanda2,

I never read the book.

Glad you said that. This poll has no end date. Also, at the end of each month, I will post the results so we can keep track of how things change month by month.

It is the worst kind of statistical error to say that someone is consistent simply because he has three "profitable months".

This is simply a gauge...a guess, not something to run with to build some serious business model around. It is certainly not fine tuned enough. Let's just see what we get.

FX4

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #52
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:34am Mar 29, 2012 1:34am
As of this moment 20 out of 35 votes are "yes" for profitable. Hmmm.
  • #53
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:41am Mar 29, 2012 1:41am
Quoting micmic
I wonder why this is happening:

1) Most voters are lying because they don't even want to admit to themselves that they are losers ?
2) Most voters are lying because they sell education/signals/EAs/etc and they want the newbies to think that making profits is easy ?
3) Most voters are indeed profitable during the last three months ?
4) Most people who lose money will not vote or have already left FF ?
5) All of the above ?
6) Something else ?
1) Most voters are lying because they don't even want to admit to themselves that they are losers ?

This means that you believe the losing percentage is much higher. That's okay. Let's see what time tells. This poll might have a side benefit: traders lose because they lie to themselves.


2) Most voters are lying because they sell education/signals/EAs/etc and they want the newbies to think that making profits is easy ?

So, you think most of the voters are people who are selling something and not just honest traders who are placing their vote.


3) Most voters are indeed profitable during the last three months ?

The last three months of what? The year? The last three months before the poll started?


4) Most people who lose money will not vote or have already left FF ?

Why wouldn't they vote if they are at FF? Nobody knows it's them. I keep seeing newcomers all the time, and so are the brokers. Haven't you seen more brokers in the market. They're getting customers from somewhere.


5) All of the above ?

Don't know.


6) Something else ?

Wouldn't it be interesting if the 95% is a "rumour" to keep traders in fear...to psych them out of winning? Just throwing that out there.


The poll is still young yet, and like I said, it has no end date. So we have time .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #54
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:54am Mar 29, 2012 1:54am
Quoting FX4Newbies
This means that you believe the losing percentage is much higher.
Ι would think so, but of course I can't be sure. Do you have a personal opinion ? Do you think that the voters' pool is representative of the ff population and if so, do you think that more than half of them are being profitable according to your definition ?

I'm not trying to imply anything here, I'm just asking for your personal opinion.
  • #55
  • Edited 2:23am Mar 29, 2012 1:54am | Edited 2:23am
I just want to ask a question.

How would you feel as a trader IF you found out that the truth was that more traders were actually winning. Do you think it would:

1. Make you feel like you could win too?

2. Make you feel badly if you weren't winning?

Just throwing that out there for reflection purposes. Really, how would you feel? Do you think it would/could affect your current performance?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #56
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:56am Mar 29, 2012 1:56am
Quoting FX4Newbies
I just want to ask a question.

How would you feel as a trader IF you found out that the truth was that more traders were actually winning. Do you think it would:

1. Make you feel like you could win too?

2. Make you feel badly if you weren't winning?

Just throwing that out there for reflection purposes. Really, how would you feel? Do you think it would/could affect your current performance?

FX4
Personally I would be very very surprised but it wouldn't affect my own trading. Because I'm already doing the best I can and I wasn't thinking about quitting anyway.
  • #57
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:59am Mar 29, 2012 1:59am
Quoting micmic
Personally I would be very very surprised but it wouldn't affect my own trading. Because I'm already doing the best I can and I wasn't thinking about quitting anyway.
Okay. Fair enough. I have heard of people who were able to talk to brokers etc. and, according to them, the percentage is supposed to be on the high side.

My personal opinion is that if more trades thought that more people were winning, it could be a psychological boost to help others win. Not influencing the poll in any way (couldn't either, so don't worry)...was just thinking what would be different for traders if that were the case.

Glad you are doing your best already. Keep going.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #58
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:04am Mar 29, 2012 2:04am
Quoting FX4Newbies
1) Most voters are lying because they don't even want to admit to themselves that they are losers ?

This means that you believe the losing percentage is much higher. That's okay. Let's see what time tells. This poll might have a side benefit: traders lose because they lie to themselves.

FX4
Perhaps those voters don't count floating losses? They might snatch a few pips here and there, adding to a couple of profitable months but they may be carrying massive unrealised losses which they either refused to close or even acknowledge. One may never need to realise a loss if one is just trading a micro lot and has US$1 billion in his trading account. Just saying.
  • #59
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:07am Mar 29, 2012 2:07am
Quoting Amanda2
Perhaps those voters don't count floating losses? They might snatch a few pips here and there, adding to a couple of profitable months but they may be carrying massive unrealised losses which they either refused to close or even acknowledge. One may never need to realise a loss if one is just trading a micro lot and has US$1 billion in his trading account. Just saying.
Very good points Amanda2. Just don't have the capability to include all those factors here, but very glad that you mentioned it.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #60
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:08am Mar 29, 2012 2:08am
I am still learning trading and doing practice with demo account. So, I think it will take time to make profit in trading. I want to do sufficient practice with demo account.
0 traders viewing now