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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #21
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:56am Mar 28, 2012 6:56am
Quoting iTrader
Read all the relevant news, and analysis. Then make up an idea in your head, after reading everything you can find relevant to the economy, forex and thinking about it - come to a decision.
I came to the conclusion the JPY is vulnerable in this phase, so i take a look at Usd/Jpy , EurJpy , Aud/Jpy , Gbp/Jpy etc. ... i make a nice technical analysis, and find a good rational spot to enter a long position. For example i bought today in the morning, Gbp/Jpy around 131,55 because i had an idea that the Jpy is weak and the Gbp was pretty solid the...
sounds like you're making decisions based on "a feeling" not sure thats good advice, even if it does work for you..
tradewith60
  • #22
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:08am Mar 28, 2012 7:08am
Quoting 60minuteman
sounds like you're making decisions based on "a feeling" not sure thats good advice, even if it does work for you..
iTrader will probably have a reply, but if a trader is in tune with themselves, when they're in a good trade, they can feel it in their gut. When it's bad, the stomach area can feel knotted up, their breathing gets shorter etc....the "you" on the inside knows.

Trading "from the gut" is another something to add to the mix, but many traders just don't take it there.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #23
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:08am Mar 28, 2012 9:08am
Quoting thelws
Yes. I have had 3 profitable months in a row. It took me 4 years to get there.
How did it feel after all those years of working at it, not to mention the money spent trying?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #24
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:10am Mar 28, 2012 10:10am
Quoting FX4Newbies

since a trader is only as good as their last trade.
I think that only gets applied to signal/system/training sellers by novices, one bad call and they're outta there!


Quoting FX4Newbies

Then, you just make it back and you'll have a winning year.
No, at best you'll have a breakeven year (if you ignore the 'and then some').


Quoting FX4Newbies

Any trader who can have three consecutive winning months has to have some degree of trader savvy to regain profitability. That doesn't just happen in this business.
What about all these martingale, averaging, no-stop, the-market-always-comes-back type of 'strategies', they can have a good run and blow up in less time than it takes to say margin call!


Quoting FX4Newbies

All the best to you in your trading.
Likewise
  • #25
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:35am Mar 28, 2012 10:35am
Hi everyone,

I don't really like writing stuff about myself nor sharing my knowledge about trading but this thread is a bit interesting thread and would like to tell couple of things according to my observation.
I worked for as a trader for about 10 years from age 20 and retired about 7 years ago now I'm 37.I worked for big companies but started on trading floor in London.
Trading is a very tiring and stresfull job , no life , apart from alcohol and fags.
That was the reason I quit.
Now in my experience , we (traders) don't rely on indis, pips etc.Indis are there just to give you some confidence nothingelse.
I have been reading all the threads on FF as much as I can but maaan, really poor advices ,full of bullshit threads and I believe all the traders on FF are either losers or will become losers in the end because none of them know anything about technical analysis.NOTHING!!!
I wonder how many of them read any book about technical analysis,I think none.
To become a succesful trader is not a easy job, and will not be !!!
In this business you must have BIG BALLS!!!! You must wait for the opportunities and go in big, grabbing 1 -2 pips will not make you reach , unless you play with minimum 100K.
Learn technicals,please don't waste your money, either today or tomorrow you'll loose.Know where you're standing, know how much money you have.
DO NOT COUNT THE PIPS.COUNT THE MONEY.

And big tip, learn channel trading,prices always move within the channels.

WOW, I think I talked too much which I really hate.

Good luck everyone, if you want to be in 5%, first try to beat 95% ,otherwise 5% will eat you ALIVE
  • #26
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:42am Mar 28, 2012 10:42am
Quoting magicpips

I worked for big companies but started on trading floor in London.
Hmmm....doing what?

(edit: I don't know why I'm even bothering to ask, I must be losing it! )
  • #27
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:06am Mar 28, 2012 11:06am
now im hoping my balls are big enough... one of them is for sure!
tradewith60
  • #28
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:07am Mar 28, 2012 11:07am
Quoting FX4Newbies
The purpose of this thread is to take a poll. Read a debate about how many traders are really winning vs. losing. The stats out there seem to say about 95% of traders lose. Some say more traders are making money. So, I decided to ask.

It is an anonymous poll...your usernames will NOT be made public, but the poll results may be viewed.

[b]Here is what is meant by consistently profitable:

Your [color=Navy]LIVE account ending balance showed an increase at the end of the month from the previous month, and this was done...
I don't understand why you think one needs three CONSECUTIVE months in order to be considered consisently profitable. If over the long-term you can increase your account, then you are consisently profitable. No need to be profitable each and every month. Your definition focuses a bit too much on the win-rate.
  • #29
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:11am Mar 28, 2012 11:11am
haha, I love the ff polls. Half of the people already profitable. Just get the rest of the newbs vote on this poll and you have 90% winners, as usual FF rules, haha
  • #30
  • Mar 28, 2012 12:24pm Mar 28, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting pipmutt
I think that only gets applied to signal/system/training sellers by novices, one bad call and they're outta there!




No, at best you'll have a breakeven year (if you ignore the 'and then some').




What about all these martingale, averaging, no-stop, the-market-always-comes-back type of 'strategies', they can have a good run and blow up in less time than it takes to say margin call!




Likewise
I think that only gets applied to signal/system/training sellers by novices, one bad call and they're outta there!

Maybe. But, all it really takes is one bad trade to ruin an account.


No, at best you'll have a breakeven year (if you ignore the 'and then some').

You don't think it is possible to have posted a loss for three months in the year and then have a gain at year's end? Of course it depends on what percentage is lost. Not dealing with specifics here, just a general idea.


What about all these martingale, averaging, no-stop, the-market-always-comes-back type of 'strategies', they can have a good run and blow up in less time than it takes to say margin call!

Traders who don't use those methods can also have a good run and blow up in less time than it takes to say margin call! And there are some who use no stops and don't blow up either.

The point is, it is the trader that makes the specific method work.

Thanks on the "likewise".


Thanks for sharing,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #31
  • Mar 28, 2012 12:39pm Mar 28, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting magicpips
Hi everyone,

I don't really like writing stuff about myself nor sharing my knowledge about trading but this thread is a bit interesting thread and would like to tell couple of things according to my observation.
I worked for as a trader for about 10 years from age 20 and retired about 7 years ago now I'm 37.I worked for big companies but started on trading floor in London.
Trading is a very tiring and stresfull job , no life , apart from alcohol and fags.
That was the reason I quit.
Now in my experience , we (traders) don't rely on indis, pips...
Magicpips,

Thanks for posting.

I have to agree with you here...trading is very stressful and not easy by any means.

This to me is key for success:

You must wait for the opportunities and go in big, grabbing 1 -2 pips will not make you reach, unless you play with minimum 100K.
Learn technicals, please don't waste your money, either today or tomorrow you'll loose.Know where you're standing, know how much money you have.
DO NOT COUNT THE PIPS. COUNT THE MONEY.

Technicals are good for timing entries and exits I think, unless a trader just goes with the flow...like Dongsky and others.


And big tip, learn channel trading,prices always move within the channels.

I think there is something to that for sure.


WOW, I think I talked too much which I really hate.

Thanks for talking too much .


Good luck everyone, if you want to be in 5%, first try to beat 95% ,otherwise 5% will eat you ALIVE

Yes, that 5% will for sure have the other 95% for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

Thanks for sharing,

FX4...

Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #32
  • Edited 1:45pm Mar 28, 2012 1:03pm | Edited 1:45pm
Quoting Custos
I don't understand why you think one needs three CONSECUTIVE months in order to be considered consisently profitable. If over the long-term you can increase your account, then you are consisently profitable. No need to be profitable each and every month. Your definition focuses a bit too much on the win-rate.
Well Custos,

I picked 3 consecutive months for these reasons:

1. Most employment situations will have a new employee on a 3-month probation at a bare minimum. Usually within that time, any negative habits or behaviour "should" show up. If a trader has profitable trading habits, it should show up during that time too.

2. In trading, with each successive month ending in a loss, the next month becomes harder, though not impossible, to end with a profit. If a trader can do it consecutively, then there is a good chance they can keep right on going.

3. After at least 3 consecutive months, with each month being profitable, it should be convincing enough to a trader that they know what they are about and who they are as a trader.

All this is assuming they trade regularly, not just one trade a month.

Once a trader has established some benchmark, though things may fluctuate or deviate a bit, it is there in the back of the mind and in the trader's psyche. I think it is a reasonable standard in a trader's mind as a "measure" of their accomplishment and development as a trader. I don't think one month would do it. Two consecutive months is a little better. After the third consecutive month, I think most traders will feel like they've got something going. Some MM firms would need to see at least 2 years of audited statements before they let someone touch their client's accounts. Three months is just a personal guide for a trader. I think it is a reasonable one. By the way, here is a Google definition of the word consistent:

1. (of a person, behavior, or process) Unchanging in achievement or effect over a period of time. I also think a monthly trading record will carry more weight than a daily one because it encompasses in more totality, the full cycle of emotions etc. that a person goes through on a "regular basis" before a new monthly cycle begins.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #33
  • Mar 28, 2012 1:59pm Mar 28, 2012 1:59pm
Can i put my thoughts,
i think that as a trader try to place trades everyday (this applies to daytraders, but looks like most of traders are in fact daytraders) can't be "consistently profitable" in the long run, for the simple fact that the market is somehow imprevedible and the real "prevedible" trades/setups don't happen everyday, so a trader who trade everyday for the shake of trading can't imo be consistently profitable.

Then, there is the investor kind of trader, the one who spend most of his time in the market as flat (don't open any trade), and can remain flat for months, untill a certain scenario happen, and a sure trade (or let's say an high probability one) happen, and profits follow. (i'm not talking of a 50pips trade of course)
This kind of traders are the only ones that can be consistently profitables in the long run, of course it is not trading anymore, it is investing.
So, investors can be consistently profitables, while most of traders cannot.
Then there are the good consistently profitable traders, but they are just a very few, and due to the various high and down and the kind of low-risk MM used to mantain such consistency, the returns are usually very low compared to the ones of investors.

Moral of the story: just find it by yourself
  • #34
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:07pm Mar 28, 2012 2:07pm
Quoting tunera
Can i put my thoughts,
i think that as a trader try to place trades everyday (this applies to daytraders, but looks like most of traders are in fact daytraders) can't be "consistently profitable" in the long run, for the simple fact that the market is somehow imprevedible and the real "prevedible" trades/setups don't happen everyday, so a trader who trade everyday for the shake of trading can't imo be consistently profitable.

Then, there is the investor kind of trader, the one who spend most of his time in the market as flat (don't open any...
Hi Tunera,

Sure you can put your thoughts.

1. People who trade daily can be profitable at the end of the month. I've done that and I know others who have. It just requires extreme discipline and focus.

2. Position traders may have to show consistent profitability over a 6-month to a year period (or even longer) depending on how long they hold their trades for.

3. Then there are the good consistently profitable traders, but they are just a very few, and due to the various high and down and the kind of low-risk MM used to mantain such consistency, the returns are usually very low compared to the ones of investors.

Don't buy that. It will keep you stunted in your thinking as far as what is achievable. I've seen accounts that were doubled in weeks and it was not just a fluke either. It's real!

If a trader is consistent, they are consistent. Their particular strategy makes the difference in the kind of returns they see. I've seen the numbers on the right side of this balance curve.

Thanks for daring to share ,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #35
  • Mar 28, 2012 3:14pm Mar 28, 2012 3:14pm
lets assume everybody is answering the questionaire with integrity.
and we can assume 99% are short term traders.
then its possible we could have such a present reading that 55% are positive over the last 3 months.
1 additional question would be useful,how many trades have you made in the 3 month period.

maybe we are a disillusioned herd unable to see beyond the dust,





this is actually a very good questionaire,
  • #36
  • Mar 28, 2012 3:20pm Mar 28, 2012 3:20pm
Quoting magicpips
Hi everyone,

I don't really like writing stuff about myself nor sharing my knowledge about trading but this thread is a bit interesting thread and would like to tell couple of things according to my observation.
I worked for as a trader for about 10 years from age 20 and retired about 7 years ago now I'm 37.I worked for big companies but started on trading floor in London.
dont take this as an offence, but from your post i would rather think that you are more newbie than former institutional trader, even more i doubt you ve ever stood on a trading floor....

you are ex senior trader with 17 years of experience, who already read almost all threads on FF, and found out that they are completely bs....wtf when did you have so much time to read whole retail forum?

you also said that traders should really get good in technical analysis to become consistent blah blah...i would say they are way too much good in TA..and as well you said that you were working for BIG companies....i can tell you from my experience and i was on one of the biggest FX desks in the world speaking with the fx spot traders and i can tell you that only TA they use is LINE chart, rest is flow

so i dont want to be rude but from my view there are two options : either you are drunk or kidding or you are just lying trying to look important.

and again sorry if i offended you but your post just made me feel like that

EDIT : actually 60% traders consistently profitable....seems like somebody must be lying about 95% rule....awgh
  • #37
  • Mar 28, 2012 3:31pm Mar 28, 2012 3:31pm
Quoting iTrader
Read all the relevant news, and analysis. Then make up an idea in your head, after reading everything you can find relevant to the economy, forex and thinking about it - come to a decision.
I came to the conclusion the JPY is vulnerable in this phase, so i take a look at Usd/Jpy , EurJpy , Aud/Jpy , Gbp/Jpy etc. ... i make a nice technical
hey iTrader,

i dont trade Jpy much but you maybe overlooked this :

The yen strengthened amid speculation Japanese companies will repatriate overseas earnings before the end of the fiscal year on March 31.
“The yen move is driven by supply and demand before the final exchange-rate fixing of the fiscal year,” said Michiyoshi Kato, senior vice president of foreign-currency sales in Tokyo at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd., a unit of Japan’s second-largest bank by assets. “While there haven’t been a whole lot of orders from Japanese exporters to sell the dollar into the end of March, I think we’ll start to see some rise in demand to buy the yen.”

source : BLoomberg
  • #38
  • Edited 3:53pm Mar 28, 2012 3:37pm | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting katrooo
i can tell you from my experience and i was on one of the biggest FX desks in the world speaking with the fx spot traders and i can tell you that only TA they use is LINE chart, rest is flow

EDIT : actually 60% traders consistently profitable....seems like somebody must be lying about 95% rule....awgh
Hello Katrooo,

Glad your intention is not to offend our fellow poster Magicpips. Sometimes it is easy for people to take things the wrong way, especially when there is not face to face interaction.

Just wanted to say....

I have heard also about the flow in trading...can be very profitable if traders can learn to dance with the market instead of trying to predict it. (Ooo...hope I don't get any hate mail about that comment).

If the 95% rule and the ??% rule doesn't jive, somebody is skewing the stats somewhere.

Thanks for posting,

FX4

P.S. I'll leave the rest alone...for now.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #39
  • Mar 28, 2012 3:44pm Mar 28, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting mister me
lets assume everybody is answering the questionaire with integrity.
and we can assume 99% are short term traders.
then its possible we could have such a present reading that 55% are positive over the last 3 months.
1 additional question would be useful,how many trades have you made in the 3 month period.

maybe we are a disillusioned herd unable to see beyond the dust,





this is actually a very good questionaire,
Hello Mister Me,

Just saw your post.

If traders are answering with integrity, it is an interesting statistic as raw as it may be. Hopefully the FF members are not a disillusioned herd. Maybe the forums here are working very well to help traders.

It would be good to know how many trades per day traders are taking. The end result though is the more important factor at the moment...the money at the end of the month. So much more can be asked. Glad you like the questionnaire.

Thanks for stopping by,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #40
  • Mar 28, 2012 3:48pm Mar 28, 2012 3:48pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello Katrooo,

I have heard also about the flow in trading...can be very profitable if traders can learn to dance with the market instead of trying to predict it. (Ooo...hope I don't get any hate mail about that comment).
no its okay,

just to make it clearer, i didnt mean the flow, like there were threads in FF where people were trying to predict the flow, stops etc.

i meant a flow which is not beiing visible to traders globally, but this flow is only visible by the desk processing it into the market.
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