EurAnalysis

The first step towards correcting it is to recognize it. Congrats

cut u r trade to tow parts, the first part 20p tp the scound move to be.and let it move has she wise.

Nah, I have my strategy that works very well for me, just made silly mistake today.

Oh man, Bubble Ben pwned my ass again and hit my SL. Precisely to the pip. Ah fo. And now lemmings can join the bull market. And I am going to join the beer market.

GL,

Tom

Me too. Cheers

http://images.free-extras.com/pics/b/beer_toast-912.jpg

here and there..EU and GU On D1,
I give you swing

eurusd daily update: www.genuinelyfx.com

Looking rather bullish but I'm not convinced enough to go long on this pair.

I will remain sidelined for now.

If it heads up, I will short at the falling channel resistance.

I just simply cannot see how the Euro is going to chew through all that technical resistance against the fundamentals and general Euro sentiment.

I guess we'll see where we stand tomorrow.

By the way, I now hate Benny Cakes even more than anyone else.

one of the most dangerous statements in trading.

for anybody out there that discovers the meaning of "it's not about being right or wrong," you will almost certainly become a profitable trader if you have the psychological make-up for trading and persevere. I'd rather be profitable than be right anyday. I think the Euro is an overvalued piece of shit, but does that mean I never long it? Every time I long it I think it's "wrong" because it doesn't deserve a higher price, but the market just goes higher anyway. The market is an irrational piece of shit because it's just the sum of human stupidity--human opinions, behaviors, perceptions, and mass psychology. Right and wrong don't even enter into an equation when rationality and equality cannot be applied to the thing most the time. Markets are guided by so much more. "Right" and "wrong" are ethical considerations or purely rational subjective criteria of evaluation, and the market simply doesn't give a shit about these terms. These are semantic constructs that attempt to narrowly define and simplify vast conceptualizations.

In fact, most people live under the false assumption the price of anything in the market is its fair and accurate value in any moment. It's the biggest load of shit. It's actually the opposite. The market itself is almost always WRONG--it price were always perfectly balanced it would never need to move! Being right doesn't matter if you are right at the wrong time too. Warren Buffett got rich because he recognized when stocks were priced at less than their true or fair value--the market didn't price them at what they were really worth. And he became a billionaire knowing how to discern that. And quite often he was "right" but the intitial response of the market tried to convince him he was "wrong," initial responses ranging from months to years sometimes. Buffett held things until the market aligned with his sense of being right, but most people simply cannot do this with the market, especially in forex. And currency evaluations are so much more complicated than assessing the value of a single company. There are percentages and probabilities of success and failure, but there is no clear demarcation of right or wrong as if its always some clear cut case and if you add all the numbers up you will have a right or wrong answer to the equation. Like a business, the macroeconomics of markets are always evolving and changing too, so what's right at the moment of purchase can become wrong the next minute, hour, day or week. Adaptation is crucial--absolutes like right and wrong can create rigid biases that prevent this key survival trait from expression.

There's a lot of things you have to do "well" but these things also don't have one sacrosanct "right" way for all people: money-risk management, trading systems-strategies, emotional management-discipline.

Also you can enter a trade, be dead wrong about why you entered it and it ends up wildly profitable, and vice versa. What saves you is not being right or wrong, but the methodology. You can be "right" 90% of the time but in forex the 10% "wrong" will destroy a person if they are focused about being right when being profitable is the only damn thing that mattered. Generation and preservation of capital is the only "right" in trading.

The person that got me into trading always boasts about how often he's right (90% accuracy or so!), but after half a decade of trading he's still unprofitable.

Yep absolutely agree, wish I was making my statement a bit more clear so there won't be no mis translation.
I have very strict money management rules so even if I be wrong 90% and right 10% I would still be profitable because my profitable trades are huge compared to losses I would take. You need to move away yourself from the value of money to be stable enough to be consciously profitable, there is no difference for me if it's a demo or live account, I take it with same serious look and I get paid by being right, I work do be more right because I get more money by being right.
Now I absolutly understand what your saying but we talk very different language if we have different strategy, it's like one is looking @ H4 TF and other M5 then often they see thing very differently and spoke different language.
I hope you get my overall point, too tired to go to the details.
I'm already permanently profitable (that's the first level to reach) and now i'm in a new level and working on to be more right then wrong.

completely understand. in fact my post wasn't even really directed at you. I was just taking the opportunity to speak on a subject that proved invaluable to my own understanding of markets and reflexivity. everyone coems to the market as a unique individual, so they will bring unique experiences to it and come away from it with unique interpretations and perspectives.

for me the classic example of the right and wrong paradigm breaking down and not mattering is something like a NASDAQ bubble.


Some of the best traders in the world were shorting the NASDAQ a full YEAR before the bubble burst. All the signs were there...a parabolic move...historically unprecedented P/E ratios and every other type of ratio you can think of...companies trading at 100 P/E that weren't even profitable yet. All those guys were "right" fundamentally, but according to the market they were wrong for another year. Pure hysteria.

People see a mirage and drink the sand because they don't know the difference. I don't think the eur/usd price imbalance is as severe as a bubble, yet. But it has structural imbalances due to the political construction of the EU that cannot be resolved through their absurd austerity measures. I might be off like the NASDAQ gurus by as much as 1 or even 2 years however, so am I right? I don't even give a shit anymore. I'll buy the pos until it hits the heavens and then sell it straight to hell. I had to stop caring about the reality of this crap. As much as I disagree with the elites and the 1% so often, I hated being poor even more. Capital isn't just a power struggle in the modern world. It's a prerequisite for biological survival and fitness.

I'm glad that you actually pointed out my quote, next time I try to be more clear because often what I try to say can sound very differently to the other person because we have different experiences, background and way of seeing things.

I hope to see you more around here.

Good, your back,
I thought you went for a pint, quitted trading and started making origamis or something similar.

my hourly count, as there is no retracement here:

www.genuinelyfx.com

As price is crawling to the upside, caring NOT for the DTL on the daily, I think the move up could be counted in an as shown manner. First resistance and consolidation could happen around 1.3380-400 followed by an fifth wave of an extended 3 towards 1.3450-500. I don’t believe this month could go above 1.35. Time should tell us. Good luck and trade safe!

The daily candle of dj_eurostox looks quite aggressive, thus sustaining a bullish bias for the next days in risky assets.



I'm off to bed, have a good night/great day! It looks like I might also catch a cold, not only fairies..

ah, thanks for that diag PT.. forgot about that one.

have u used the buy button on eu yet this year

Target reached and out at 1.3360 from this morning. There's a potential here for 1.3385 but not worth risking the green pips made today. We are well above the 61% FIB from the 1.34 top to 1.30. I think the inverse head and shoulder has almost played out and it will be time to bring out the hammer.

Let's see what Asia does...

Actually I have (against my better judgement) but only for intraday trades and a few scalps. As you know I am primarily a position trader and I find it very difficult to take a long position trade on the Euro. Perhaps my mentor didn't get to teach me a few important items... such as when it's okay to buy into bullshit

Asia will most likely take it up a bit more too. They haven't had the chance to react to Benny Cake's speech yet. Anyway, I'm sidelined for now. If I am to go long on this pair, it certainly will not be until we get a decent pullback to solid support.