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What is your effectiveness on real account at 100 transactions?

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  • profit trades/total trades*100
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  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 24, 2012 8:08am Mar 24, 2012 8:08am
What is your effectiveness on real account at 100 transactions?
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  • #2
  • Mar 24, 2012 9:58am Mar 24, 2012 9:58am
None of this matters.


% winners has nothing to do with profitability.


System expectancy comes from more data points, like average winner vs average loser... and ultimately can only be counted if the entire account is flat and not holding onto losers for eternity (til they turn around or the account is wiped out.)

I can't count how many people I've seen boasting about 90% win rates only to blow it all out on 1-2 trades that go bad. Who cares if you win 90% of the time if the 10% of the time you lose it puts the account under...


Always think it terms of return expectancy... don't count winners vs losers.
FXGears.com
  • #3
  • Mar 24, 2012 10:25am Mar 24, 2012 10:25am
so of course you're right bad question, please Leaders of throwing a theme to the trash
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  • #4
  • Mar 24, 2012 12:44pm Mar 24, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
NWho cares if you win 90% of the time if the 10% of the time you lose it puts the account under...
Always think it terms of return expectancy... don't count winners vs losers.
idea, to help combine both of yours --

Consistency and Crisis.
Trading makes it all too easy to go from one to the other.

Time the market for the former, yourself for the latter. That is, if you have a wide-applying study.
If a study's limited to finding only a couple of trades over the same time, then time yourself for consistency and the market for (this) crisis.
  • #5
  • Mar 24, 2012 1:21pm Mar 24, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
None of this matters.


% winners has nothing to do with profitability.


System expectancy comes from more data points, like average winner vs average loser... and ultimately can only be counted if the entire account is flat and not holding onto losers for eternity (til they turn around or the account is wiped out.)

I can't count how many people I've seen boasting about 90% win rates only to blow it all out on 1-2 trades that go bad. Who cares if you win 90% of the time if the 10% of the time you lose it puts the account under...


Always think...

I have to chuckle when I see the 90%+ boasters. They just can't seem to get it through their thick heads that those numbers mean nothing.

You can make a sh!!tload of money trading with systems that are 50% or less winners. It's just the 90% crowd are generally trading very small accounts and incorporate "recovery" or the dirty name they dont like calling it "martingaling".

Which is an absolute recipe for disaster as soon as the market begins to trend out of their range.

I know traders who are quite profitable at far less than 50%.

Me I will go on record as saying I have months where I am at 75% and I have months where I am trading at 25%. Overall I profit well.

If a trader can consistently achieve 90+% then you "should" be able to program your method and conquer the world.

Hmmmm....Checking the financial papers lately I have heard of no traders doing that sooooooooooooo...............

Don't tell me about your consistent 90+% wins because it's BS.

Cheers !

Bluesteele
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #6
  • Mar 24, 2012 1:58pm Mar 24, 2012 1:58pm
And if a trader has a RR of 1:4, they can be wrong 75% of the time and still be profitable.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #7
  • Mar 24, 2012 2:06pm Mar 24, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting Jack_Larkin
% winners has nothing to do with profitability.
...
Always think it terms of return expectancy... don't count winners vs losers.
How exactly do you calculate expectancy if you don't know your win% ??

What I hope you meant to say was that "winning percentage is only one part of the expectancy equation which indicates a trader's past profitability, and may be used to estimate future profitability, if several conditions are met".
  • #8
  • Mar 24, 2012 2:24pm Mar 24, 2012 2:24pm
I am about to start trading a system which so far has exceeded my expectations.
it has a win rate of 38% and win/loss ratio of 3.5:1 according to my backtests.
the system makes about 15-20 trades per month so I expect to make over 60% per 100 trades risking 1.5%

I believe the system is simple and robust and able to withstand changes in the market.the entries requires some discretion but the rest is fully automated.
If this works out I will be a
millionaire in three years !!!!!
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #9
  • Mar 24, 2012 2:52pm Mar 24, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting pemully
If this works out I will be a
millionaire in three years !!!!!
Not sure how many times I have heard and seen statements like this.
I even made them myself like 5 years ago or so, only I was more bold than that.
I calculated when I would be a Billionaire.

Guess what, 5 years later and I'm not even a millionaire.

I make a good living and that's all.
(= more than enough though)

I never want to have a normal daytime job again that's for sure.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #10
  • Mar 24, 2012 3:14pm Mar 24, 2012 3:14pm
If my system holds up I will make a million and several more.
however I am aware of the many pitfalls.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #11
  • Mar 25, 2012 1:00pm Mar 25, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting pemully
If my system holds up I will make a million and several more.
however I am aware of the many pitfalls.
It's good to be an optimist as well as a realist .
  • #12
  • Mar 28, 2012 8:02am Mar 28, 2012 8:02am
From the sense of this thread I think that we already know that it is impossible to win the market with just 100$. However, if you are taking your first steps in forex, it would be a good idea to start with small amount of money, but not to small, otherwise, you would have to use high leverage.
  • #13
  • Last Post: Jan 5, 2013 12:54am Jan 5, 2013 12:54am
Quoting pemully
I am about to start trading a system which so far has exceeded my expectations.
it has a win rate of 38% and win/loss ratio of 3.5:1 according to my backtests.
the system makes about 15-20 trades per month so I expect to make over 60% per 100 trades risking 1.5%

I believe the system is simple and robust and able to withstand changes in the market.the entries requires some discretion but the rest is fully automated.
If this works out I will be a
millionaire in three years !!!!!
hahaha.... how silly.....I just had to to give updates on this system.

I tried trading the system which was based on M5 charts and found hypothetical results differ from real results !!!!
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
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