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  • #14,821
  • Mar 22, 2012 9:34am Mar 22, 2012 9:34am
I figured we were far enough away from the news release, plus with it being marignally positive, I thought it would work in my favour. I guess the moral of the story is to stop trying to trade against the H4 trend and just leave well enough alone if there is a major news release.

Tomorrow bring another chance to rack up some serious pips.
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #14,822
  • Mar 22, 2012 9:54am Mar 22, 2012 9:54am
Just scanning across the charts, I'm not sure we were victims of news so much as we were victims of the downwards movement in higher time frames. There were other pairs that showed the same cross that weren't USD and they made the same reversal.
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #14,823
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:07am Mar 22, 2012 10:07am
Quoting By_Tor2114
Just scanning across the charts, I'm not sure we were victims of news so much as we were victims of the downwards movement in higher time frames. There were other pairs that showed the same cross that weren't USD and they made the same reversal.
I don't know why I didn't clue in to that fact lol. I saw E/J and G/J acting the exact same way as the U/J before I took the trade. I basically only took that one because it would mean the smallest pip count for where I wanted my stop to be. So yes, it could be the case.

Although, since they're all pegged to USD, those other pairs could've been mimicking the price action because of how their USD paired counterparts were reacting to the news. I mean, unemployment in US is a pretty major announcement afterall.

Regardless, we traded based on the rules, other than the 4hr being in a downtrend. But, it was the only setup I saw available and looking like the only one on 1HR of the day, so it is what it is. If it was easy and definite it wouldn't be any fun. Although it would be more lucrative I guess lol.
  • #14,824
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:21am Mar 22, 2012 10:21am
Interesting idea, but I really think it was just the H4 pressure that killed us. Looking at pairs like the E/U etc they weren't moving heavily against the USD. Oh well!
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #14,825
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:31am Mar 22, 2012 10:31am
Quoting By_Tor2114
Interesting idea, but I really think it was just the H4 pressure that killed us. Looking at pairs like the E/U etc they weren't moving heavily against the USD. Oh well!
Okay, last thing I'll say and I'll leave it alone lol. The bottom line here (for me anyways, not forcing my views) is that the spike that happened to make that big bullish candle wouldn't have happened had it not been for the news in the first place. That's why I feel its the news that got us . I'm not saying the downward h4 didn't kill us but the more I think about it I don't think we would've been going against the H4 pressure had the news not made that big surge.. Either way, I hope we both make back our pips plus a bunch more tomorrow
  • #14,826
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:44am Mar 22, 2012 10:44am
Actually, Thrasher, you make a good point. I hadn't considered that the news was what might have created that initial spike.
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #14,827
  • Mar 22, 2012 11:33am Mar 22, 2012 11:33am
Quoting By_Tor2114
I think it's safe to say I shall be getting out of this as a loser. Any ideas what went wrong? There were several pairs that made a very strong crossover on the H1 chart and they all reversed almost immediately.

Comments are always appreicated!
This is what I saw this morning for the USDJPY pair, a very nice double top of a resistance with a upper wick pin bar closing down, would have expected price to drop here today and if I had seen the set-up sooner I would have sold on the break of the daily pin bar. Now I see a nice momentum drop breaking the daily trend line.

I have also attached charts of the eurusd,gbpusd,usdchf and the usdcad with what I am seeing right now, any suggestions.



joffie
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #14,828
  • Mar 22, 2012 12:46pm Mar 22, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting thrasher88
This one does all 3 and draws an arrow over the cross candle, enjoy...
Hi thrasher 88 The arrows are great- I'm not a programmer, how do I get the alerts though- is there information on setting them up or am I sincerely missing something here- many thanks as always. I feel so near but so far- sums up trading to this point!
  • #14,829
  • Mar 22, 2012 1:32pm Mar 22, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting joffie
This is what I saw this morning for the USDJPY pair, a very nice double top of a resistance with a upper wick pin bar closing down, would have expected price to drop here today and if I had seen the set-up sooner I would have sold on the break of the daily pin bar. Now I see a nice momentum drop breaking the daily trend line.

I have also attached charts of the eurusd,gbpusd,usdchf and the usdcad with what I am seeing right now, any suggestions.



joffie
Hi Joffie,

You seem to have this stuff pretty sorted! I'm always impressed by someone that can act with certainty. Are those all daily charts you posted?
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #14,830
  • Mar 22, 2012 2:52pm Mar 22, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting By_Tor2114
Hi Joffie,

You seem to have this stuff pretty sorted! I'm always impressed by someone that can act with certainty. Are those all daily charts you posted?

Just the usdcad and usdjpy are daily charts posted, others where the 4hr charts.

joffie
  • #14,831
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:03pm Mar 22, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting huw123
Hi thrasher 88 The arrows are great- I'm not a programmer, how do I get the alerts though- is there information on setting them up or am I sincerely missing something here- many thanks as always. I feel so near but so far- sums up trading to this point!
Hey man,

Basically, when you put the indicator in theres a popup box and one of the tabs says "inputs". If its already applied to your chart you can goto Charts -> Indicators list then double click the indicator from the list and goto the inputs tab.

Scroll down to the very bottom and there you'll see alert popup and alert Email... just double click where it says true/false and select which option you'd like. Make sure that you have your email settings configured if you want an email sent to you. I'm pretty sure the only email you can use is with a company called GMX (its free). But MT4 doesn't use some special security so it won't work with hotmail and stuff like that. Good luck.
  • #14,832
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:54pm Mar 22, 2012 3:54pm
Hi all...I was just curious if anybody else was watching the AUD/USD 4H chart? I'm still having a bit of trouble getting a solid entry down. See below...
Any comments are always welcome! Thanks!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 4h.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #14,833
  • Mar 22, 2012 7:30pm Mar 22, 2012 7:30pm
Quoting SMcGuire45
Hi all...I was just curious if anybody else was watching the AUD/USD 4H chart? I'm still having a bit of trouble getting a solid entry down. See below...
Any comments are always welcome! Thanks!
Hey McGuire,

Basically, the idea with using the EMA is that you want the blue candle to close ABOVE the line. Also, since there is barely any liquidity in the market at a time of night like this I automatically don't give much credence to the cross. So unless it was a really strong blue candle I personally wouldn't go for it, especially at this time of day. The thing is, is that since theres so little action going on, the small candles make the TDI lines gravitate closer to one another so a fakeout cross is much more likely. Not saying its for surely not going to go the way you want but for me its not what I'd look for.

Good luck!, take a look at some of Joffie's analysis for some more in depth stuff too, he usually looks at daily so theres usually more evidence that a move should take off based on support/resistance. I've personally been using 1HR because I don't have much trading capital so I'm looking for a higher Risk/Reward so that I don't have to trade .50 cent pips just to have my stop where it would need to be on higher T/F's...
  • #14,834
  • Mar 22, 2012 9:31pm Mar 22, 2012 9:31pm
Hey Thrasher,

Thanks for the additional insight. I know liquidity is horrible during that time, but I didn't realize, or I should say I haven't learned how the TDI behaves yet while watching the charts live. Definitely quite a bit different than just studying the previous charts.
  • #14,835
  • Mar 23, 2012 2:38am Mar 23, 2012 2:38am
Quoting thrasher88
Hey McGuire,

Basically, the idea with using the EMA is that you want the blue candle to close ABOVE the line. Also, since there is barely any liquidity in the market at a time of night like this I automatically don't give much credence to the cross. So unless it was a really strong blue candle I personally wouldn't go for it, especially at this time of day. The thing is, is that since theres so little action going on, the small candles make the TDI lines gravitate closer to one another so a fakeout cross is much more likely. Not saying its for...
Hi Thrasher,

Was the candle closing above the EMA one of Big E's original rules? I thought it wasn't and that he entered a long even if the candle was under the yellow line (Much like we did on yesterday's ill fated YEN trade!).
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #14,836
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:31am Mar 23, 2012 4:31am
Anyone else go short on this H4 cross on USD/CAD? There is also a cross in the opposite direction on GBP/USD, but I didn't take it due to recent resistance in that area... Ironically, the trade on G/U looks a little healthier than this one on U/C!

Note: The new H4 candle opened at 9am UK time, despite what the display says in the attached image.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 19 KB
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #14,837
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:37am Mar 23, 2012 4:37am
I did go short too but based on 1H TF.
Today the market doesnt seem so friendly to trade...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 23-03-2012 09-35-40.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #14,838
  • Mar 23, 2012 5:26am Mar 23, 2012 5:26am
Just a quick note,

I know how this method has been layed out to take trades, but you must watch the bigger picture. Take a look at this Daily USDCAD chart, price has been finding support around the weekly level, and now yesterday price broke through the trend line on the daily chart. For me there is no reason to sell the usdcad right now. I have sold the usdjpy though.

joffie
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #14,839
  • Mar 23, 2012 5:27am Mar 23, 2012 5:27am
Quoting eelfranz
1st Trading Chart... Note on the TDI showing your entry set ups... green crossing red enter on that new PA candle...

hi,

whats better is ratio for sl and take profit ?
  • #14,840
  • Mar 23, 2012 6:07am Mar 23, 2012 6:07am
Quoting By_Tor2114
Hi Thrasher,

Was the candle closing above the EMA one of Big E's original rules? I thought it wasn't and that he entered a long even if the candle was under the yellow line (Much like we did on yesterday's ill fated YEN trade!).
Mcguire was likely reading some of the original posts by Big E. He used to use the EMA but later decided it was redundant. I really just didn't want him missing long trades because price was closing below EMA and vice versa because that would be some missed pips lol.

But yes, McGuire, for the most part you don't need EMA. However, some guys still use it. I believe only20GP still utilizes it for example.
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