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Fail Better

  • #3,041
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:31pm Mar 21, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting the_wizard
Hey Kalbar,

I wouldn't have actually traded that one but there have been some absolute killer SFP setups this week (and some great level retests too).

The SFP is a fantastic pattern but like most price patterns, people get enamoured by initial success and end up taking every single one they see (or trying to systematise it)

Then what happens, is they don't get quite the results they hoped for and leave something as profitable as this behind in search of the next "grail".

Like anything, it's all in the context of surrounding price....
Cheers Tom that is excellent - definitely looking forward to Sunday as I need some expert tuition on this pattern!!
  • #3,042
  • Mar 21, 2012 1:13pm Mar 21, 2012 1:13pm
Quoting nollej
Hey there,
For those who dont know and didnt want to pay for software, MT4 has a strategy tester built in which allows you to run through historical data as well.. First post on this page
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=70742
describes how to set it up with the files needed there as well.. Also another option called Vhands which does the same thing in MT4..As mentioned by sam awesome for practice
Josh
Thank you for linking to this! I've been looking for something like this for a long time. I've increased my understanding of the markets and picking entries in just the first hour of using this. Greatest invention for an aspiring trader, it's right there with demo trading.


Quoting sam0182
Absolutely.

Speaking of forextester, it's a great tool regardless...I would recommend anyone to drop the cash on it. Especially with this type of trading (simple S&R and/or SFP), builds the confidence as you're trading real data. It's certainly made a difference in my trading.
Yes! This thing has really upped my game. Definitely recommended to everyone who is reading this. It's a great warm-up before you check out the markets and it's great for honing your trading skills when the markets are closed.
  • #3,043
  • Edited 6:43pm Mar 21, 2012 3:14pm | Edited 6:43pm
A euro trade that did what it was supposed to do.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 55 KB
  • #3,044
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:58pm Mar 21, 2012 5:58pm
Thought I'd post a couple of shorts I took on kiwi today.

First was an SFP, or is that a SPF? Second was a standard swing point break and retest.

Finding kiwi behaving much nicer than euro recently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20120321_kiwi.png Size: 57 KB
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,045
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:54pm Mar 21, 2012 6:54pm
Quoting sam0182
Ok, this is a work in progress but attached below are my favored setups out of the first 100 pages of this thread. These trades, IMO, are rock solid and in addition to Sunday gap opportunities, are about all that I strive to trade.

If anyone finds this useful, I'll post up the second half of my favored setups in this thread (pg 101 - present).
Part 2, my favorite setups pages 101-202 of this thread.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Quality Setups 101-202.pdf   2.7 MB | 1,297 downloads
  • #3,046
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:57pm Mar 21, 2012 6:57pm
Quoting Amart83
A euro trade that did what it was supposed to do.
Hi Amart. Nice trade, clearly worked out well.

However, it wasn't obvious to me why you entered where you did. I can see that you took profit close to where I have a level drawn at 1.3212 but I couldn't see a clear level to short on the retest for your entry. Could you let us know your reasoning please?

Thanks.
  • #3,047
  • Mar 21, 2012 7:19pm Mar 21, 2012 7:19pm
Looks like a little over-under setup to me...time frame a little too small for me but nice trade. I'd also like to hear from the poster...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu over under.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #3,048
  • Edited 11:54pm Mar 21, 2012 9:35pm | Edited 11:54pm
Quoting sam0182
Looks like a little over-under setup to me...time frame a little too small for me but nice trade. I'd also like to hear from the poster...
Are these the best entry details on this random timeframe? (at your blue arrow)

Stop 1.328 = behind closest swing
Entry 1.325 = S/R touch trade
Target 1.322 = next S/R
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,049
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:35am Mar 22, 2012 3:35am
http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...SD22032012.jpg

I know it's not an sfp or RR but it looked a good example for people trying to identify patterns like this.

nb: as I post it has collapsed and broken the neckline.
  • #3,050
  • Mar 22, 2012 5:15am Mar 22, 2012 5:15am
i have a level marked on eur/usd at around 1.3119 and one on cable at 1.5744. Both are already over extended atr's. I could see them working their way down there by the end of the day and retracing during the asia session. They both printed nice H1 SFPs before the big moves, but sadly I was at work. Anybody catch em?
Support the Resistance
  • #3,051
  • Mar 22, 2012 6:30am Mar 22, 2012 6:30am
Quoting megel
i have a level marked on eur/usd at around 1.3119 and one on cable at 1.5744. Both are already over extended atr's. I could see them working their way down there by the end of the day and retracing during the asia session. They both printed nice H1 SFPs before the big moves, but sadly I was at work. Anybody catch em?

please let me know what means SFP ??

regards
as
  • #3,052
  • Mar 22, 2012 8:55am Mar 22, 2012 8:55am
SFP= Swing Failure Pattern

RR= Rounded Retest

Read the beginning of the thread for more idea of what's being discussed.
  • #3,053
  • Mar 22, 2012 9:02am Mar 22, 2012 9:02am
Quoting Quidsey
SFP= Swing Failure Pattern

RR= Rounded Retest

Read the beginning of the thread for more idea of what's being discussed.
quidsay, thanks a lot.

i was thinking about single farm payment and this makes no sense.

yes i will do as you suggest

regards,
as
  • #3,054
  • Edited Mar 23, 2012 2:21pm Mar 22, 2012 5:09pm | Edited Mar 23, 2012 2:21pm
SFP off trendline + off RN 1.0300 + Pinbar/w strong close. Target 150ema/PPZ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,055
  • Edited 9:49pm Mar 22, 2012 9:24pm | Edited 9:49pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
Hi Amart. Nice trade, clearly worked out well.

However, it wasn't obvious to me why you entered where you did. I can see that you took profit close to where I have a level drawn at 1.3212 but I couldn't see a clear level to short on the retest for your entry. Could you let us know your reasoning please?

Thanks.
Hi BadgerMatt.

- 20 Simple MA on H1 (open)
- Strong pivot level (H4 chart attached)
- Price tested it as resistance, broke through but not very strongly enough, tested it as support, bounced up 30 pips, created SFP, tested the level as support again, failed to hold up, then broke through strongly and closed 70pips before returning. Granted: I didn't expect the rounded retest (RRT) to be that quick. Was expecting something more like the second time it re-tested that level.
- Support last

On the H1, there's not much to go by, but here's a pic of the H4 and you'll see what a strong level this was. Keep bullet point #3 in mind when looking at this level on the chart. Price tests that level as S/R many times and has tried to close above it repeatedly, and usually has failed to do so.

Quoting Quidsey

I know it's not an sfp or RR but it looked a good example for people trying to identify patterns like this.

nb: as I post it has collapsed and broken the neckline.
Damn, didn't even realize that was an H&S. Would've put a second order in.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu3.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #3,056
  • Mar 22, 2012 9:37pm Mar 22, 2012 9:37pm
Here's a USD-JPY trade I took today.

I walked right in when this order had just been triggered.

Being the idiot that I am, I didn't let my S/L do the trading for me.

It's easier to illustrate than explain and post charts.

http://screencast.com/t/7DIVHWvnp8yW
  • #3,057
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:50pm Mar 22, 2012 10:50pm
Cool vid cap...the UJ level doesn't do much for me but thanks for going through it.

I use camtasia sometimes but have yet to purchase it...will check into what you're using.
  • #3,058
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:02am Mar 23, 2012 4:02am
Try CamStudio free software.
  • #3,059
  • Mar 23, 2012 8:05am Mar 23, 2012 8:05am
Tom quick question, in your time trading these set ups which currencies pairs, commodities etc have had the best/strongest setup and have a good enough hit rates/reliability over the long haul to be suggestive of your overall arsenal of what to trade?
  • #3,060
  • Mar 23, 2012 10:27am Mar 23, 2012 10:27am
Well played Cable SFP earlier for +55 which was good. Doubled my (small) size and recouped losses on failed RRs on EU + Cable yesterday so have actually ended the week slightly up which is good for the psyche!!

In glorious hindsight should I have taken these 2 RRs or not? They were probably not A+ but fitted the criteria for the strategy - good levels/retest etc. Ok the rounded shape was maybe not great so that is something to learn from and I believe TD rejected these setups. However I feel the real expertise and skill is to recognise fairly early that your trade is not working out and then cut it quickly to minimise losses.

To be honest I DO NOT HAVE these skills at the moment although I did have a 'feeling' that price was drifting (eg Cable) and that there was a lack of momentum in the trade but the age-old fear then arises 'what if I cut it and it then goes and hits my target?'

Just wonder how anyone else is dealing with these issues? Any advice about cutting early? Anyone have time-based rules, e g out after 5/6 bars if no momentum? Certainly stuff to think about.

Sorry cant post charts just now - in house waiting on delivery of a new laptop which I will be using for Sunday's webinar!
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