EurAnalysis

Perhaps Benny should just exchange all his Dollars for Pesos

Closed my short position that i opened today at 1.3225 @ 1.3196... got scared when it started to rebound again, thought i was gonna make it

oh well still a profitable trade and im happy for that.

Still holding on to my other 2 short positions, will only close them if we break the 1.3310 level.

It is same pattern friday, yesterday and today. I compared news, auctions speeches. calendars - there is nothing special at that time. Looks like an operation of BIS or similar?

I don't think the writer is referring to Greek bond CDS, although that's exactly how it sounds. How can there be Trillions of Greek bond CDS when there aren't even 1 Trillion in Greek bonds? LOL

No, I believe what the writer is referring to is the total cumulative potential losses that could possibly come to light if any banks that have underwritten the CDS and any banks that lost money on the debt swap were to go belly up as a result. It's very far fetched in my opinion but nobody really knows what goes on behind the curtain of privileged information.

Looking at a 5 minute chart at 9:45 AM you can see the POP !!!

I am not trading today so I did not investigate until now what happened. I strongly suggest since there is no cost for the service to use the free news by the second from the Oanda site. It is called "Oanda FX Trade News and you get it by clicking on the left hand side of the charts.

Click on the box called news. I read all the items coming out at 9:45 AM and there are comments from FED Nominee Powell that needs to be read.

My style of trading somewhat like PipTrapper requires me to find out what happened so I can determine for myself if it is game changing news or just more bull clap.

If I see it has no long term effect and I see there is a chance to short if all things line up including the Dow going down then I might have a NEW Trade Plan. At this point there is Europe Equities Close at 11:30 AM and please do not forget Benny The Professor spinning the FED later on...

Have a look at this for that...

Wall Street Breakfast Must Kno News !!!

That was just a play on words as I am not the Author...

Apple sells 3M iPads in a weekend. After announcing a goody bag of a buyback and dividends early yesterday, Apple (AAPL) later disclosed that it has sold 3M new iPads since the device was launched on Friday. Felix Salmon wonders whether the market had prior knowledge about the announcement to return money to shareholders, noting with suspicion that shares added $70B in market cap during the eight sessions before yesterday. It's not like it was a big secret, though.
Investors, authorities pile in on Deutsche Bank over Libor. Deutsche Bank (DB) is facing a number of civil suits in the U.S. over alleged Libor manipulation, and it has received subpoenas and information requests from the Justice Department, the SEC, the CFTC and the European Commission.
Adobe's profit plunges 21%. Adobe's FQ1 net profit dropped 21% to $185.2M while revenue rose 1.7% to $1.05B, with the company's performance hurt by lower-than-expected sales from its legacy desktop software due to customers waiting for the launch of the company's Creative Suite 6 software and subscription services. Adobe provided FQ2 and FY 2012 forecasts generally in line with, or above, forecasts, although the stock dropped 3.9% after hours, having risen 22% so far this year.
Michael Kors launches $1B+ secondary offering. Michael Kors (KORS) insiders plan to sell over $1B worth of stock in a secondary offering, with founder Michael Kors due to offload 3M shares and CEO John Idol 1.7M. The company has also raised its FY 2012 EPS outlook to $0.79-$0.81, above consensus of $0.67, while it forecasts revenue at $1.27B-$1.28B vs. Street predictions of $1.28B.
Dodgers aim for home run over TV rights. Time Warner Cable (TWC) and News Corp's (NWS) Fox sports unit are heading for a potential multi-billion dollar showdown over the rights to telecast the L.A. Dodgers' baseball games. Blackstone, the firm advising the Dodgers on the sale, has encouraged media companies to get involved in the bidding to boost the price.
Williams to buy Caiman Eastern for $2.5B. Williams Partners (WPZ) has agreed to buy Caiman Energy’s wholly owned subsidiary, Caiman Eastern Midstream, for approximately $2.5B. The acquisition will provide Williams Partners with a significant footprint and growth potential in the natural gas liquids-rich portion of the Marcellus Shale.
Oracle profit seen rising but analysts wary. Oracle (ORCL) is due to report its FQ3 results after the bell today, with analysts expecting that EPS rose to $0.56 from $0.54 a year ago and that revenue edged up just 2.5% to $9.02B. With the stock receiving downgrades over the past two months, analysts are concerned over Oracle's ability to stop competition from cloud providers Salesforce.com and Workday from eating into its traditional business, as well as the deadweight that the Sun Microsystems purchase has so far proved to be.
Disney takes $200M hit on massive flop. Disney (DIS) will take a $200M write-down related to the mega-flop John Carter, worse than the $120M-$160M forecast by analysts. The loss will result in Disney's studio division reporting an operating loss of $80M-$120M in the March quarter compared with a $77M operating profit in the December quarter. Disney hopes The Avengers and Pixar's Brave will give its studio ops a lift later this year.
CVR continues to fight off Icahn. CVR Energy (CVI) has rejected Carl Icahn's extended $30 a share tender offer, and asked shareholders not to participate. Said CVR Energy chief Jack Lipinski: "Mr. Icahn has again gone back on his word by extending his distracting and detrimental campaign."
Windows 8 tablets to arrive in the autumn. While Apple (AAPL) toasts selling 3M iPads, Microsoft (MSFT) continues to work on Windows 8, with Bloomberg reporting that the first PCs and tablets based on the OS will arive in October. The initial hardware will include systems featuring ARM-based (ARMH) processors to go with x86 Intel (INTC) gear.
Oil prices to continue to hurt airlines. The IATA has cut its industry outlook on the back of high oil prices, and expects airlines to turn a $3B profit in 2012 for a 0.5% margin vs. earlier forecasts of $3.5B. The expected average price of oil is pegged at $115 a barrel, up from $99.
Ben Bernanke to give history lessons. Ben Bernanke will today deliver the first of four hour-long lectures on the history of the Fed as part of what is essentially a PR blitz to set the narrative of the Fed's role during and after the financial crisis. You can watch it here, if you like, or just wait for the CliffsNotes.

Feedback or story tip? Please direct message WSB editor Yigal Grayeff »

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -1.1% to 20888. China -1.4% to 2377. India +0.3% to 17316.
In Europe, at midday, London -1.1%. Paris -1.3%. Frankfurt -1.4%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude -0.8% to $107.21. Gold -1.1% to $1648.60.

Tuesday's economic calendar:
7:45 ICSC Retail Store Sales
8:30 Housing Starts
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
12:45 PM Bernanke: 'Origins and Mission of the Federal Reserve'
5:45 PM Fed's Kocherlakota: 'On the Limits to Monetary Policy'

Friday was weaker than expected US data.

Yesterday was a combination of Friday's delayed reaction plus M/A capital flows for the UPS-TNT deal

Today was the Greek aid tranche plus the payment to ECB for expiring bonds and interest and possibly the statement from Iran.

In each case there were short coverings. This will be confirmed this Friday after market close when the COT report comes out. Last Friday EUR positions were net short -99,000 A smaller number than that on Friday will confirm the short covering. I will guesstimate it at around -75000 if the bears do not load up on their shorts again before the end of today.

Yea I agree it is very far-fetched, a lot of flawed aticles coming out these days its important to have a good interpretation of the fundamentals if youre going to act on them. I'm convinced he's talking about greek bonds however we won't argue over it we'll agree that its not of importance to the charts

From a technical standpoint, short from this area (1.3240-45) looks good.

Target for today could be daily R1 at 1.3281 if 1.3240 clears. This would also invalidate the head and shoulder formation on the daily and place the higher target for March 30th in play.

target 319, 312
e/u daily

Hang on to your hats boys...it's a long way down!

Don't know about you guys, but I'm completely f'ing confused last three days. Anothing is making sense to me right now.

maybe cause you try to scalp them b**chies; these days have been mid term, confusing for me too, but will pass, maybe tomorrow will be clear.

Scalping is for 5, 10 points. These have been 100+ point moves!

In either case, does not change my

What has you so confused cgb?

FROM WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Kno's Comments:

Only because it is more important than just a different point of view I wanted to repost the original source of my information on this. You can all decide for yourself of course.

I will go with Jim Sinclair...

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Now we are up to $79 billion from $3.5 billion.
What tells me this figure has a lot to go on the upside?

Post Greek PSI Deal, We Are Not BULLish Or BEARsh, We Are GORILLAish

The Greek PSI deal is done, deadline passed, the ISDA has called a credit event on bonds that did not voluntary sign up for a 70% plus haircut. However what all the folks in Wall street are doing this weekend are trying to work out how long the queue is outside the door of the ISDA (the folks who trigger CDS deals) Monday morning coming, to see what debts will be forced to be reported on profit and loss statements.
After the forced accounting standards change back in 2009,a loan need not be written down to its true value until it has been proven [via default] to be worthless. This means bailouts of banks and countries allowed loans to maintain full value on banks balance sheets. The Greek default and soon to follow cascade of loan defaults and more ISDA meetings triggering CDS means that more losses will be printed on Profit and loss statements in the near future. How large this is, will determine what happens to the market starting Monday.

Mark J Grant makes this point in The Eight Hundred Pound Greek Gorilla Enters The Room
Extract..
I expect the ratings agencies to place Greece in “Default” and with their banks following. The markets are “Ho-Humming” and the conversations revolves around “Net” CDS exposure and the write-downs that have already taken place at the European banks. Please recall AIG and what happened with Lehman and what do we find this morning; KA Finanz, the Austrian bad bank, faces $1.32 billion in losses due to their exposure to the Greek CDS contracts according to a Bloomberg article. So now we will wait and see who else is on the hook, who may be seriously impaired, because the Gross number of about $79 billion for Greek CDS is about to enter center stage.

I hold up my hand, “One moment please” as I introduce you to the 800 pound Greek Gorilla that is about to enter the room. Allow me to now present to you the “OTHER” Greek debt that is outstanding and will have to be accounted for as the country defaults. Detailed below are some of the “OTHER” sovereign obligations of the Greek government which have now been submitted to the ISDA and I list some of them below. You will note that there are bank bonds, Hellenic Railway bonds, Urban Transportation bonds et al that are guaranteed by Greece. (RTT Etc etc the list grows)
More…


Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
According to Forbes the ISDA finally (2:48 pm 03.09.12) used the "D" word.
So much of this is convoluted when you look at the BIS gross figures that I have a strong feeling the drama of the CDSs has a lot further to go. There is an assumption in all the reports that a bond paper market must be equal to, not larger than, the physical bonds issued. That is so far from the way a derivative market works that it is comical.

Check the BIS figures for yourself on gross CDSs outstanding nominal value. You too will see that $3.5 or less makes no sense at all.

Greece was a main target of the bond vigilantes yet the outstanding claims of all the CDS is too small to even consider. In the paper market 2 plus 2 is much higher than 4.

The drama of the CDSs has much further to go

I guess it's the diconnect we're now seeing between asset classes. Throwing me for a loop.

Fed Chairman Bernanke Tells CNBC: We're Watching Recent Rise in Interest Rates

... another wave ...

I know what you mean. It's starting to behave similarly to the pre crisis years but not quite. I guess this is the transitory stage.

If we truly shed the risk-on/risk-off paradigm, that would make me a very happy trader as we could finally return to currencies appreciating and depreciating on their own merit rather than a fear/greed concept. However, in that type of climate, we can also say goodbye to the volatility I have come to love so much. Mind you, all one has to do is double the lot size of his/her trades to adjust for the reduction in pippage.