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  • #24,781
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:24am Mar 19, 2012 11:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
Possible but let us wait for some reversal pattern first. 1.3260 is the H4 channel resistance area and also the monthly pivot so it has prospect to be a reversal point. But in the bigger picture the stronger resistance is 3280/90 area as it is also a major supply zone. There is also an additional minor supply zone just above around 3200/10 area which also coincides with the 61.8 fibo line. If it manages to pop that zone upward, it's gonna fly coz it will cause a very major short squeeze.
Ok....What would be your next area of shorting this sucker?
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #24,782
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:24am Mar 19, 2012 11:24am
Quoting PipKiller




E$ long closed +210 pips

E$ short opened. She's way overshot the mean and closed outside the upper TMA bands on the H4. Time to sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.

NOTE: be carefull copying my trades, my positioin sizing allows me 300+ pips against me before I'll break a sweat.
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Congrats PK
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,783
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:25am Mar 19, 2012 11:25am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Ok....What would be your next area of shorting this sucker?
possibly right here. Just waiting for European close to see what happens after.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,784
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:26am Mar 19, 2012 11:26am
Quoting PipKiller




E$ long closed +210 pips

E$ short opened. She's way overshot the mean and closed outside the upper TMA bands on the H4. Time to sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.

NOTE: be carefull copying my trades, my positioin sizing allows me 300+ pips against me before I'll break a sweat.
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Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #24,785
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:28am Mar 19, 2012 11:28am
Quoting BrunargarFx
That's what I'll be looking for now 1.3280 - 1.332, next area to short and it would fit perfectly with the H&S on daily we were talking about .
Seeing how the right shoulder was formed, I have a strange feeling this isn't going to turn into a H&S formation, but it's just a mere opinion for now...
charting the euro...
  • #24,786
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:28am Mar 19, 2012 11:28am
Quoting BrunargarFx
To be grateful is the right attitude!
Agreed
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,787
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:35am Mar 19, 2012 11:35am
Quoting Cgb
Agreed
I second that
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,788
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:39am Mar 19, 2012 11:39am
Alright, the sleeping bear has come out of hibernation
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #24,789
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:41am Mar 19, 2012 11:41am
PT, are you still in on that short you took yesterday?
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #24,790
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:43am Mar 19, 2012 11:43am
Price reached expected levels, the play now is to sit tight and wait.

As i have stated before a break of 1.3310 would make me close my shorts from 1.3450 and 1.3250 both of which i have closed 2/3 of these positions on Friday.
I will wait a FS on hourly chart to short if given the chance today or tomorrow. Otherwise a solid break of 1.3310 would make this pair fly and i would take a small long position but again only with a FS but this time on the 10min chart.

Happy Trading..
Cheers!!
  • #24,791
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:44am Mar 19, 2012 11:44am
If today is a repeat of Friday, we can expect sideways motion for the remainder of the day.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,792
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:49am Mar 19, 2012 11:49am
Quoting genuinelyFX
Seeing how the right shoulder was formed, I have a strange feeling this isn't going to turn into a H&S formation, but it's just a mere opinion for now...
I can see the same...
Yet we need to wait two, three days until this formation develops
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #24,793
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:51am Mar 19, 2012 11:51am
By end of month we are going to be at one of these two shaded areas on the chart. This is my daily chart I posted 2 weeks ago with a raising wedge formation and gold channel is long term daily downtrend.

A move above 1.3285 (and above 1.3300) negates the head and shoulder formation and it's up we go. Failure would see at least the lower shared area near 1.2875.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Mar19_1247.gif Size: 106 KB
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,794
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:56am Mar 19, 2012 11:56am
Prediction....
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  • #24,795
  • Mar 19, 2012 11:57am Mar 19, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Cgb
By end of month we are going to be at one of these two shaded areas on the chart. This is my daily chart I posted 2 weeks ago with a raising wedge formation and gold channel is long term daily downtrend.

A move above 1.3285 (and above 1.3300) negates the head and shoulder formation and it's up we go. Failure would see at least the lower shared area near 1.2875.
Agree
Cheers!!
  • #24,796
  • Mar 19, 2012 12:05pm Mar 19, 2012 12:05pm
Is back to where we were before the collapse of 2007.

See, printing all that free money did help it move up and improve the US economy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,797
  • Edited 12:29pm Mar 19, 2012 12:09pm | Edited 12:29pm
Quoting BullsVsBears
PT, are you still in on that short you took yesterday?
Yep. sure am. Still holding and looking to add another. Just not sure this is the best place to do it. I'm gonna wait to see what happens in Asia first.

USD is getting trashed today so I want to see some solid tech support or a nice reversal pattern on the USD before I hit that button.

ADD: This is my area of concern. USDX bounced off a double top and rising channel resistance and has been headed south ever since.

Currently sitting on key H4 100ema line which seems to be offering some support but I'm not convinced yet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking at the daily, there is stil a little way to go before we reach the 100 day MA support. Hence my reluctance to just jump in before I see what Asia does to the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,798
  • Mar 19, 2012 2:17pm Mar 19, 2012 2:17pm
The H4 chart is by far may favorite indicator of of trend, fibo res/sup and supply/demand zones. As such, I've posted it below and here is what I see.

It is clear to me that we are in the process of painting what appears to be a head/shoulders pattern and currently painting the up-leg of the right shoulder. Currently, price is sitting at the 50% fibo level of the move down from the head. I will give this shoulder the leeway to move up as high as the 61.8 fibo level before I start doubting the pattern. One of my concerns at the moment is the speed with which it it rose from the proposed neckline. However, considering the fundamental drivers behind this move (M&A flows from the UPS-TNT purchase plus a trio of weaker than expected econ numbers on Friday), I am not surprised. One also has to consider that many shorts got squeezed between Friday and today so that exacerbated the move.

Now for the lines.. Oh those lines. They don't usually fail me but I always keep in my mind that they are only support and resistance and I have often seen price slice through them like they weren't there. Anyway, the line to which I refer are the channels. Currently my re-drawn FC-2 (Falling Channel #2) looks like it will cap any significant move higher. I always allow a spike to penetrate channel limits as long as the candle closes within those limits. Whether or not these lines will hold is something I am waiting to discover and that is why I have not added to my shorts just yet. We'll see what happens overnight. If FC-2 channel resistance is broken overnight, then my focus will be on FC-1, the longer term falling channel (dark blue). This is yet to be seen so no further comment required on that.

How about the supply zones? Yes those are very important. We are currently almost at the start of a major supply zone (SZ-1) which starts around 1.3270 and extends to about 1.3290. Just above that we come to the 61.8 fibo level which also marks the start of a minor supply zone (SZ-2) starting around 1.3300 and extending to around 1.3355 A move beyond that level, and we get a major short squeeze and I start reconsidering my position in the market.

As for Funnymentals, we all know where I stand on that. Europe may have come back out of the casket for now but the undertakers are still standing by... and so am I

Well here's the chart. Let's see what the Asian session brings.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,799
  • Mar 19, 2012 2:18pm Mar 19, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting Cgb
Is back to where we were before the collapse of 2007.

See, printing all that free money did help it move up and improve the US economy.
Yea, but how much longer til the bubble pops...
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #24,800
  • Mar 19, 2012 2:25pm Mar 19, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper
The H4 chart is by far may favorite indicator of of trend, fibo res/sup and supply/demand zones. As such, I've posted it below and here is what I see.

It is clear to me that we are in the process of painting what appears to be a head/shoulders pattern and currently painting the up-leg of the right shoulder. Currently, price is sitting at the 50% fibo level of the move down from the head. I will give this shoulder the leeway to move up as high as the 61.8 fibo level before I start doubting the pattern. One of my concerns at the moment is the speed...
Well, we know Asia will drive price higher. I'm looking to short at the top of the channel 1.328. Based on Euro session confirmation
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.png Size: 62 KB
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
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