EurAnalysis

You are right PT.
Highly unlikely to happen

It's bank holiday today in Ireland.

I'm looking for a test of DPP @ 1.3138 but if it breaks we're back to 1.3115 - 1.312 (our friend who was short before the weekend will be happy to see the price coming back to him)

Personnally I don't dismiss the price to bounce back up from 1.312 as we would need momentum to break 1.319, but not trading today.

1st TL broke and the the 2nd one is holding for the moment....Let see

Harpy, here you can see the levels. 1.30 is tough as you can see.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/forex-order-book

We start off with Good Morning

I post a link to the following obsevation on USD/JPY http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...rexLive.com%29

The benchmark 10 year US treasury yield is off at 2.2760 from the 2.3066 I jotted down first thing. Against this backdrop USD/JPY has given ground, presently at 83.10 from the 83.40 when I parked my bum.
As my colleagues have also underlined in recent days, we’ve the little matter of the approaching fiscal year end in Japan and the likelihood of increased Japanese exporter sales.
I have to say though I’m personally not expecting a collapse in USD/JPY after it’s strong recent rally, but a period of consolidation could well be on the cards.

As I have pointed out many times the relationship of USD/JPY to EUR/JPY needs to be observed in order to get an edge on movements. You can see that as USD/JPY goes down and gets stronger it brings EUR/JPY down as well.

My FXCM UK platform shows the following Highs and Lows on USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

USD/JPY 83.58 and 83.01
EUR/JPY 110.17 and 109.33

EUR/USD trades in a range between 1.31407 and 1.31894.

Watch to see where USD/JPY and if EUR/JPY heads to 109.50 or 109.00.

Of course the way the US Equities go will move around the Asset Classes.

Gold now trades at $1,656.95 US Spot and the Dow Futures are down now. The Futures are down 16. The Yields are .34% for the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds Yield 2.27 % with the spread 193 Basis Points.

The FOCUS this week will be on US Housing. We start with NAHB at 10:00 this morning. (14:00 GMT)

A Bad or Good Number can and most likely will move the Bond and Equity market. Will we trade with Risk On or Off today ? If Risk Off will funds flow back into the US Bonds and bring down the Yields again ?

Where the Numbers are now are used to see where others go as they move Up or Down. There is ALWAYS the Euro Debt Situation hanging OVER the Euro until it is not.

Keep in mind the behaviour of EUR/USD is usually different between 6:15 AM and 9:30 AM then it is after 9:30 AM depending on new data and the direction of the Equity markets.

The Low was reached near 4:00 AM and it rises as the North Ametica Retail Traders come on board. This pattern usually repeats most days.

That's it for now. Have a Good Trading Day.

Thanks Kno,

This week housing numbers forecasts predicted better than before. Actual numbers of course matter, but recently forecasts-action relation has been favor to USD. It suggests downhill for EURUSD.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-Portugal.html

Pimco chief Mohamed El-Erian expects 'second Greece’ in Portugal

The giant bond fund Pimco said Europe has not yet tamed its debt crisis and will soon face a “second Greece” in Portugal as the country’s economy spirals downwards.

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/...n_2171083b.jpg If the Greek haircut formula is ultimately extended to Portugal, private creditors can expect to lose everything Photo: AFP

Mohamed El-Erian, Pimco’s chief executive, said Portugal will need a second rescue as the original package of €78bn (£65bn) falls short, setting off a political storm over EU rescue costs.


“Unfortunately, that is how it will be. It will make the financial markets nervous because they are worried about a participation of the private sector,” he told Der Spiegel over the weekend.


German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble insists that Greece is a “completely unique case” and that there will be no further haircuts for banks, insurers and pension funds holding eurozone sovereign bonds.

However, the EU authorities broke their pledges so many times during the Greek saga that market faith has been shattered. Even Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has expressed disgust, signalling that it will give Club Med debt a wide birth from now on. It has already sold half its Spanish bonds.


The fund, under Norway’s finance ministry, voted against the Greek debt deal on the grounds that European institutions were exempted from losses and given “special” treatment. “It's very important to create trust in the markets. To create trust you have to stick to the rules,” said director Yngve Slyngstad.

If the Greek haircut formula is ultimately extended to Portugal, private creditors can expect to lose everything. The EU and the International Monetary Fund already own most of the debt, reducing everybody else to cannon fodder status. Mr El-Erian said EU leaders are deluding themselves if they think they have solved Greece’s problems. “The Greek package is going to fall apart quickly. Bridges built to go nowhere can collapse at any time,” he said.

The IMF said in its latest report that Greece remains “accident prone” and may need further help and more debt haircuts if the economy “fails to respond rapidly enough to reforms”.

It warned that a “disorderly euro exit would be unavoidable” if the EU cuts off support. Such an outcome would threaten the IMF itself with unprecedented losses.

Meanwhile, Greece's Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos declared victory on Sunday night in a vote for the leadership of the socialist party, PASOK, in which he ran unopposed.

Last week Mr Venizelos said he would step down as finance minister if he won the contest.

Kno's Comments:

Why Comment Just Read This !!!

The country's caretaker prime minister Lucas Papademos told the Financial Times: "I am convinced that we are more than halfway along the path to economic recovery – although the fiscal consolidation process will last longer. Positive growth rates should be achieved within less than two years."

This is what I do when I am bored

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Yep but there is wall at 1.31.

Hey Guys, good morning and Good Afternoon to all,

Mondays for me is a day where i let the market feed me the info i need for the rest of the weeks trading strategy. Although not much news today to drive the market up or down, so probably sideways range expected today. However, as i have stated before i still feel the Euro will reach 1.32 - 1.3250 and will wait a FS on hourly chart to short somewhere around these levels, basically adding on to my current shorts. Only a break of 1.3310 will cause me to close all my open positions and negate my bearish view so far.

Happy Trading to all

Where do you base you sentiment or is it just a hunch? TA, Fundamentals or are you buddy with Big Benny?

Good Morning Traders
I’ve seen many discussions of FF about 1M and 5M gaps, weekend gaps, daily gaps etc, etc, however a big gap on 4H chart has been totally overlooked.

I am still targeting 1.29800 in my trades, though Friday wasn’t my lucky day.
I’ve been closed on SL, having first 50pips profit in the morning.
Nevertheless, I still believe this big 4H gap MUST be closed first before any further northbound strong movement appears.


The big battle between bears and bulls probably will take place near 1.3100-1.3080 zone, (marked as decision zone on charts)
If BULLs hold this level and price bounce above 1.3170 we could possibly see 1.32400 pretty soon (see BULLISH chart) and my GAP theory rejected.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

On the other had if 1.30800 area breaks, I’d expect further depreciation and hopefully 1.29800 will close this gap for good. (see BEARISH chart)
Good Luck everybody.

Order executed!! LONG

LOL, my analysis are all based purely on TA. although i do follow market psychology. I am an intraday trader using the daily charts for my overview daily and the hourly chart to enter my trades.

As i recently posted, the 1.3450 being the 50% retracement level was a short i entered initially and shorted again at 1.3250. i have closed 2/3 from both positions on Friday. I also stated that i expected this bounce and the levels i expect it to reach. If this happens then i will treat this as an if reach stategy to go short.

Hope this helps and clarifies.

I agree price will return to 3100/3090 this week, which will provide a decent spot long entry with further support at 3050, because even if price breaks above 3190 today it's going to run into a Wall of Technical Resistance and supply/sell orders after it jumps past the 3200 psych barrier. I don't see us breaking 1.3 this week unless some unexpected EU-negative news breaks.

I think back to how the year opened and it feels like dejavu again. I don't trade candlestick patterns, but I'm keen to note that the daily chart shows a beautiful head & shoulder bearish continuation pattern has formed. From Jan 26 - Feb 6 price traded in this 3230 -3030 range. Dejavu? Technical supply: 3190 --> 3210/3230 -->3260/3290 -->3310/3330. 3260/3290 and 3310/3330 are very strong and will likely not break without some positive news for EU and better fundamental outlook. Don't forget it took Greek bailout #2 + LTRO nested in the same timeframe to help the Euro last time. What does it have going for it atm? Afghani Hopium? Mmhmm.

Without much news available this week, we seem destined for more range-bound trading. I may be off on the highs and lows of this range somewhat, but not by much. Tops and bottoms of range I estimate to be: 3290/3260/3230 <----->3090/3050/3005. Again, I'm basing this on Jan 26 - Feb 6 price action, and we have returned to this area with no news and weak fundamentals to support the euro atm. Euro has decoupled from the "risk on paradigm" and equities correlations sufficiently to enhance this outlook. Of course past price action is not indicative of future performance, but it does effect reflexivity.

Thanks. I'm just hunting crumbs of info to support my opinions - though it is opposite to yours. 1.318 there is a wall of orders and below we have smaller barriers at 1.312 and 1.31, but major bike crash wall at 1.30.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=29803

Snippet:

Since around October last year, the price of crude oil on world futures markets has exploded. Different people have different explanations. The most common one is the belief in financial markets that a war between either Israel and Iran or the USA and Iran or all three is imminent.

Another camp argues that the price is rising unavoidably because the world has passed what they call “Peak Oil”—the point on an imaginary Gaussian Bell Curve (see graph above) at which half of all world known oil reserves have been depleted and the remaining oil will decline in quantity at an accelerating pace with rising price.


Both the war danger and peak oil explanations are off base. As in the astronomic price run-up in the Summer of 2008 when oil in futures markets briefly hit $147 a barrel, oil today is rising because of the speculative pressure on oil futures markets from hedge funds and major banks such as Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and most notably, Goldman Sachs, the bank always present when there are big bucks to be won for little effort betting on a sure thing. They’re getting a generous assist from the US Government agency entrusted with regulating financial derivatives, the Commodity Futures Trading Corporation (CFTC).

http://www.globalresearch.ca/article...es1obrenty.gif
Source: oilnergy.com

Since the beginning of October 2011, some six months ago, the price of Brent Crude Oil Futures on the ICE Futures exchange has risen from just below $100 a barrel to over $126 per barrel, a rise of more than 25%. Back in 2009 oil was $30.

Yet demand for crude oil worldwide is not rising, but rather is declining in the same period. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the world oil supply rose by 1.3 million barrels a day in the last three months of 2011 while world demand increased by just over half that during that same time period.Gasoline usage is down in the US by 8%, Europe by 22% and even in China. Recession across much of the European Union, a deepening recession/depression in the United States and slowdown in Japan have reduced global oil demand while new discoveries are coming online daily and countries like Iraq are increasing supply after years of war. A brief spike in China’s oil purchases in January and February had to do with a decision last December to build their Strategic Petroleum Reserve and is expected to return to more normal import levels by the end of this month.


Why then the huge spike in oil prices?

Please Read On ....

Hoping for the best!

We've retraced almost to daily pivot and the 50% FIB line held up. Hourly Stoch looks tired to me and we're, in my opinion, range bound for a better part of the day between the 50% FIB and the 61.8% lines. Crude not failing $107 and is head back to challenge $108, now at $107.67. I have support pegged at $1654 on gold and it's now moving north from there at $1656.16 with resistance at $1664.

I'm still holding both shorts from Friday (one that's green now and the other not).