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  • #611,101
  • Mar 17, 2012 2:22am Mar 17, 2012 2:22am
Quoting micho
for me head and shoulders is just head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms... please...
Wonder why you don't believe in double tops (and bottoms). They are an undeniable rich source of almost uncountable pips. (EU = 1.3485 for instance)
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  • #611,102
  • Mar 17, 2012 2:43am Mar 17, 2012 2:43am
Quoting ForExtraPips
Pretty much and end of week profit taking. They stopped me out. Now it's time to go for the ride down.
Profit taking could be 40, maybe 60 pips?
What happened today was a serious move north, far beyond profit taking.
And actually what happened after that move north was a surprising lack of profit taking .... to the south.
Which I think could be a bias north for next week.

But as usual, everything is possible.
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  • #611,103
  • Mar 17, 2012 2:50am Mar 17, 2012 2:50am
Quoting KillerWhale
Profit taking could be 40, maybe 60 pips?
What happened today was a serious move north, far beyond profit taking.
And actually what happened after that move north was a surprising lack of profit taking .... to the south.
Which I think could be a bias north for next week.

But as usual, everything is possible.
My personal view for next week based on what happened the last few days is consolidation between support 1.3004 and resistance 1.3290.
As long as 1.3191 is not taken out, I hope we will retest 1.3003 but 1.2974 is out of reach imo.
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  • #611,104
  • Mar 17, 2012 2:58am Mar 17, 2012 2:58am
Quoting KillerWhale
I thought it had something to do with "hitting the bottle".
lol
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #611,105
  • Mar 17, 2012 3:27am Mar 17, 2012 3:27am
EU has come back to 1.3180 again. here is still the resistance area.the 365ema.even shorting here is risky , my sl at 1.3190. the main trend is down ,in the short term, 1.3120 is the key point now .

on the other hand ,the usd index is still bullish on h4 time frame. it now pull back to the trend line area ,maybe it will go up again .


just my opinion .enjoy your weekend .
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #611,106
  • Mar 17, 2012 4:10am Mar 17, 2012 4:10am
Quoting KillerWhale
Profit taking could be 40, maybe 60 pips?
What happened today was a serious move north, far beyond profit taking.
And actually what happened after that move north was a surprising lack of profit taking .... to the south.
Which I think could be a bias north for next week.

But as usual, everything is possible.
There have been too many serious moves lately, immediately followed by another serious move in the opposite direction, so I can hardly take them seriously any more therefore, I'm with you, anything can happen, north or south, that was the 50% level giving a kick along for going up, now many other factors coming in to play, can only wait & see if it decides to actually trend one way or the other...

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #611,107
  • Mar 17, 2012 4:15am Mar 17, 2012 4:15am
Quoting micho
head and shoulders is a shampoo and doesn't make any sense in forex...
Agree.
But Micho, you seem to believe in almost nothing when it comes to chart patterns, and all kinds of situations where others like to see hints for up or down or sideways (I wish we could go backwards also).

So tell me if you want, what are the things you rely on?
Thanks
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  • #611,108
  • Mar 17, 2012 4:28am Mar 17, 2012 4:28am
Hi guys,
This is my view for the pair:
Euro has crossed the 23.6 fib. retracement from the fall from 1.494xxx & which gives the euro a room to advance more. Since Euro has crossed as well the 23.6 Fib retracement from 1.3485 & just shy of the 38.2 Fib & given the momentum of the advance on Friday & the fact Euro has priced in all the negative news of the Euro Zone.
This gives the Euro the room to advance more however the area between 1.3485 & 1.3515 will be the real test because of the supply zone, physiological barrier @ 1.35 & most importantly it is the 100 retracement & 38.2 retracement on both long & short time frame.
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  • #611,109
  • Mar 17, 2012 5:17am Mar 17, 2012 5:17am
Quoting geniusztc
EU has come back to 1.3180 again. here is still the resistance area.the 365ema.even shorting here is risky , my sl at 1.3190. the main trend is down ,in the short term, 1.3120 is the key point now .

on the other hand ,the usd index is still bullish on h4 time frame. it now pull back to the trend line area ,maybe it will go up again .


just my opinion .enjoy your weekend .
sl 1.3190 is a very dangerous place. You should make that at least 1.3195
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  • #611,110
  • Mar 17, 2012 5:31am Mar 17, 2012 5:31am
Quoting KillerWhale
Agree.
But Micho, you seem to believe in almost nothing when it comes to chart patterns, and all kinds of situations where others like to see hints for up or down or sideways (I wish we could go backwards also).

So tell me if you want, what are the things you rely on?
Thanks
in my opinion those chart patterns are wrong simplified interpretation of the sequence of numbers that form the chart... how many "head and shoulders" or "double tops/bottoms" or "butterfly" or "trendlines" failed to reflect the future price move, so the credibility of those patterns is maybe around 5%
i rely on indicators, candle patterns and Fibonacci...

i agree next week eur pairs not looking good, i wouldnt go long on the weekly because i just looked at the chart again and it doesn't look good. i have to close my eurgpb on BE because it was wrong and i need to wait for GPBJPY to drop and close my trade for + or - so far it is still +

this week was kind of weird especially for the yen and pound, something was pushing the price up against the technicals and i am not sure what it was, maybe BOJ or BOE maybe not... so we'll have to wait and see what happens next week to decide
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #611,111
  • Mar 17, 2012 5:37am Mar 17, 2012 5:37am
Quoting micho

this week was kind of weird especially for the yen and pound, something was pushing the price up against the technicals and i am not sure what it was, maybe BOJ or BOE maybe not... so we'll have to wait and see what happens next week to decide
I'm trying to find out ............ Yen second half of March, isn't that the yearly period of repatriation? And if so I need to find out what the influence on the yen will be this year.
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  • #611,112
  • Mar 17, 2012 5:43am Mar 17, 2012 5:43am
Quoting KillerWhale
I'm trying to find out ............ Yen second half of March, isn't that the yearly period of repatriation? And if so I need to find out what the influence on the yen will be this year.
i dont know but i hope that it will be strong a bit next week and follow the technicals, the first target for the USDJPY and GPBJPY now are reached so its time to retrace or push to other targets or even breakout... will have to wait to find out what happens
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #611,113
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:11am Mar 17, 2012 6:11am
I was first Short!!!!
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  • #611,114
  • Edited 6:33am Mar 17, 2012 6:14am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting KillerWhale
My personal view for next week based on what happened the last few days is consolidation between support 1.3004 and resistance 1.3290.
As long as 1.3191 is not taken out, I hope we will retest 1.3003 but 1.2974 is out of reach imo.
i have same view infact i have warned after 3120 taken

Quoting mohan76
can it take down 32 before NYSE ?

short holders make sure you have s/l , it might never come back to this level for some time

Quoting KillerWhale
Profit taking could be 40, maybe 60 pips?
What happened today was a serious move north, far beyond profit taking.
And actually what happened after that move north was a surprising lack of profit taking .... to the south.
Which I think could be a bias north for next week.

But as usual, everything is possible.

i had some reads few weeks back that some hedge funds having short that took below 1.30 and they trying to push EU down blow 1.30 to recove (by avaraging),this week we had rumor of middle easter buying arround 1.3050 ~ 1.3000. yesturday move more like those hedge funds desided to book there avarage shorts. in that case we can easly break 3180 ~ 3192 next week after small pull back, i prefer market to open around 3156 ~60 or above 3200 for bull.

i am not a long term trader & i will not have much time next week to trade current situation i can see bull more than bear.

but market is a crazy dog it can change it's direction any time without any reason

edit :testing of 3132 and rejection also on the card
Mohan
  • #611,115
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:26am Mar 17, 2012 6:26am
this rally towards north was in book from last week.
There is no substitute of hard work and experience. $ € £ ¥
  • #611,116
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:30am Mar 17, 2012 6:30am
anxiously waiting for market to reopen on monday
There is no substitute of hard work and experience. $ € £ ¥
  • #611,117
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:32am Mar 17, 2012 6:32am
Quoting pip.com
anxiously waiting for market to reopen on monday
Why not go for a break. Better for your mind and time flies faster
  • #611,118
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:43am Mar 17, 2012 6:43am
Quoting trader-tan
Why not go for a break. Better for your mind and time flies faster
I am deeply in love with market

cant leave her
There is no substitute of hard work and experience. $ € £ ¥
  • #611,119
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:44am Mar 17, 2012 6:44am
Quoting jezek5
Strange times or not the pink line wins.
A strong end to the week for DX,we're right
at the top of the range,my thinking is DX spikes
a bit higher and then pulls back into the old
range and tests that pink line again.
That means Fiber needs to hold 1.3000,below that all bets
of Fiber strength are off in my book.

Link posted last weekend.
So we held above 1.3000 and with that done there was only
one way for Fiber to go,DX closed below that old resistence(blue line)
giving us a good chance of testing that pink line again this coming week.
From there i will need to see how price reacts.
Good trading everyone.
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #611,120
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:57am Mar 17, 2012 6:57am

No one has guts these days, everyone says: "we'll see where it goes"
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