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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #24,621
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:27am Mar 16, 2012 9:27am
Quoting FXMindset
One of the lesson am learn from the trading is..
Dont mess with Friday

Imo,some pairs need take a breath first before resume their journey and the real sell pressure havent come yet from the second favourite pairs The DollarYen
Yeah bud, Friday's and Monday's I normally dont trade. I let the market fight and then I quietly reap the benefits. I think this run is stalling so I want to seize the opportunity and ride the wave.. We'll see
I have multiple personalities... Bull today Bear tomorrow!
  • #24,622
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:30am Mar 16, 2012 9:30am
Quoting Cgb
Can you tell me why (the rational) for taking that short? I would not have taken it and I'd like to better understand why you did.

Thanks
Okay. First the most obvious reason... overall market sentiment is bearish on the Euro and bullish on the USD in the short to medium term.

Technically, here it is.

1. H4 resistance on the 200SMA
2. Daily R2 Resistance
3. 61.8 Fibo retrace from last week's high
4. 38.2 fibo retrace from 2012 high
5. Momentum candle parabolically right into a supply zone.
6. RSX in overbought territory on H4 and below TFs


...and there you have it.

This softer dollar today does not worry me. Also consider it is quadruple witching Friday so we were due this correction as portfolios get rebalanced.

Worst case scenario is that it keeps slicing through all the mentioned resistance without a retrace. (highly unlikely but possible)

Next worst case scenario, it keeps going up after it does a retrace to let me out with a small profit.

Best case, it completes the correction and heads back down.

Now lets see what happens.

For me, the risk is well managed.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,623
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:33am Mar 16, 2012 9:33am
Quoting BullsVsBears
Im waiting on confirmation, price is at 100 ema... Could go to 3190 either way Im right with you bro
don't forget the seat belt
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,624
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:36am Mar 16, 2012 9:36am
Critical Supply zone .. 5% Risk .. positions open @ Short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: its amazing.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #24,625
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:38am Mar 16, 2012 9:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
Okay. First the most obvious reason... overall market sentiment is bearish on the Euro and bullish on the USD in the short to medium term.

Technically, here it is.

1. H4 resistance on the 200SMA
2. Daily R2 Resistance
3. 61.8 Fibo retrace from last week's high
4. 38.2 fibo retrace from 2012 high
5. Momentum candle parabolically right into a supply zone.
6. RSX in overbought territory on H4 and below TFs


...and there you have it.

This softer dollar today does not worry me. Also consider it is quadruple witching Friday so we were due this...
Thanks for the explanation and time you took to answer it. Much appreciated.

We've hit daily R2 and now pulling back a little. Not sure where this will go, down I hope. Sitting on a negative position right now and not sure i want to keep it over the weekend.

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,626
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:39am Mar 16, 2012 9:39am
Quoting rekon67
Critical Supply zone .. 5% Risk .. positions open @ Short.
I see you've joined the high risk gravy train. Best of luck to both of us.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,627
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:40am Mar 16, 2012 9:40am
Quoting Cgb
Thanks for the explanation and time you took to answer it. Much appreciated.

We've hit daily R2 and now pulling back a little. Not sure where this will go, down I hope. Sitting on a negative position right now and not sure i want to keep it over the weekend.

Cheers!
how deep underwater are you (in pips)?
Or rather, what was your entry price?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,628
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:42am Mar 16, 2012 9:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
I see you've joined the high risk gravy train. Best of luck to both of us.
I favor Historical points ... Friday gas about to end
  • #24,629
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:47am Mar 16, 2012 9:47am
Quoting rekon67
I favor Historical points ... Friday gas about to end

May be little more to go....
EDIT: Still waiting for price to hold...
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #24,630
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:53am Mar 16, 2012 9:53am
I'm waiting for M30 close to join in
Quoting PipTrapper
I see you've joined the high risk gravy train. Best of luck to both of us.
  • #24,631
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:55am Mar 16, 2012 9:55am
Quoting Harpe Eagle

May be little more to go....
EDIT: Still waiting for price to hold...
ya..sure ..
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1331811031
  • #24,632
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:59am Mar 16, 2012 9:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
how deep underwater are you (in pips)?
Or rather, what was your entry price?
More than I normally let it run

Check PM.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,633
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:01am Mar 16, 2012 10:01am
I'm in S @ 1.3174

SL: 1.32

Need USDX to corss 79.6 upwards..


Quoting BrunargarFx
I'm waiting for M30 close to join in
  • #24,634
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:08am Mar 16, 2012 10:08am
Quoting BrunargarFx
I'm in S @ 1.3174

SL: 1.32

Need USDX to corss 79.6 upwards..
Same here in at 1.3173...SL 1.31985
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #24,635
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:18am Mar 16, 2012 10:18am
Looking at the hourly chart, price has made a quick jump towards the upper side of the channel, also resistance from SnR. MACD histogram seems overbought, so a retrace from this area[1.3180-13200] could happen. Seeing as this is Friday, better wait for your trades on Monday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: genuinelyFX_2012.03.16_eurusd_hourly.jpg Size: 161 KB


Good luck and trade safe!
charting the euro...
  • #24,636
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:23am Mar 16, 2012 10:23am
Closed it: -10
Waiting for my system to confirm
USDX not convincing me either
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Same here in at 1.3173...SL 1.31985
  • #24,637
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:23am Mar 16, 2012 10:23am
PT and others many thanks for your feedback to my question on correlation. I enjoyed and appreciated the readings indeed.

EURUSD
Daily target 1.3250 on track and at this region i would very happily short this pair again with 1.3310 being my SL and also to close ALL positions currently held from 1.3450 and 1.3250 ( i have already taken 2/3 out of this position).

This bounce up was expected and technically keeping the mid to longer term target of 1.27 and perhaps beyond intact.

I think i will wait till Monday though in order to enter a new position as i dont really entertain entry on Fridays or so close to Market close and not giving my trade a chance to at least be positive by 50+ pips through the weekend. I also try to refrain myself taking positions on Monday LOL, i instead use this day to let the market show me the direction that will take place for the week ahead, till now this action has proven cost effective.

Good luck in everyones trades and above all happy Trading!!!

Nice weekend to all
Cheers!!
  • #24,638
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:31am Mar 16, 2012 10:31am
would it hurt me to short this 2 with a 25 pip sl after taking both with 75 pips x 2???????????????/
  • #24,639
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:35am Mar 16, 2012 10:35am
Quoting simwee_1312
would it hurt me to short this 2 with a 25 pip sl after taking both with 75 pips x 2???????????????/
What is this equation? You want to enter with a Risk reward 1:3? Wait for London close and go for it!
  • #24,640
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:36am Mar 16, 2012 10:36am
anything stick to the rule the.Market will do the rest
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