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  • #1,181
  • Edited 10:18am Mar 14, 2012 9:34am | Edited 10:18am
I've decided to host a webinar this coming Sunday to run through some of the underlying theory behind how I trade.

Specifically this will focus on Supply / Demand and Orderflow dynamics and how I use this in Price Action strategies.

I'll also run through a couple of the exact methods I use, what I look for and provide some thoughts on mistakes retail traders make when it comes to trade management.

Full details can be found on my website via the link below

Supply/Demand and Orderflow Dynamics – the Professionals Approach to Price Action Trading
  • #1,182
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:59am Mar 14, 2012 10:59am
Quoting lovejoy80
Last post as it's getting late (1.15am here), many people get taught not to go against strong momentum...

Now I'm not saying price is going to reverse this whole down move - clearly we don't expect miracles here, but despite this strong down move price still had a material bounce at this level - why, because of the orderflow dynamics at this level which in turn causes the price action you can see in terms of the reaction that has occurred.
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  • #1,183
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:12pm Mar 14, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Great level and great trade! Certainly fit my criteria. Shame about the 1:15am trade call

Not a pair I currently view. Goes to show why it's sometimes worth viewing further afield.

USDSGD has my interest. Potential retest and FTB at 1.2628 or even short 1.2811ish?
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  • #1,184
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:17pm Mar 14, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting 5.25
Great level and great trade! Certainly fit my criteria. Shame about the 1:15am trade call

Not a pair I currently view. Goes to show why it's sometimes worth viewing further afield.

USDSGD has my interest. Potential retest and FTB at 1.2628 or even short 1.2811ish?
Looks like I got out of the USDMXN trade at the right time!

This one is on my exotics watchlist for sure...look at the ones attached - notice a USD pattern ;-)
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  • #1,185
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:26pm Mar 14, 2012 5:26pm
My other two charts from my Exotics profile that are on my watchlist...
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  • #1,186
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:52am Mar 15, 2012 6:52am
Missed this setup yesterday...but ask yourself:

1. Would you be looking to buy on a touch of this level?
2. Would you buy despite the strong move down into this area?
3. Do you understand why price was very likely to react at this level?

This is one of the main differences between professional price action traders and retail price action traders...

Professionals look for levels like this every day and understand why price has a good probability of bouncing at levels like this and welcome the strong momentum move into this area.

Retail traders get scared when price moves with good momentum and don't want to enter at the S/R level itself because they consider this too aggressive, why, because they don't understand the order-flow dynamics that is likely to be occurring here.
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  • #1,187
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:12am Mar 15, 2012 7:12am
Another example of a different price action setup.

This is a monthly S/R level, three times price has a false breakout on the LTF's above this area but closes below the resistance on the daily TF. Each day following these bars price falls.

Professional price action traders understand the order-flow dynamics at this S/R and what was happening when we had the LTF breakouts, what the daily closes mean and why price is likely to fall the next day. Retail price action traders don't have a clue and wouldn't look to be selling the next day.

This is the basis of price action trading, yet retail traders generally have very little knowledge of what is going on in this chart and the previous chart - they have a mechanical mindset instead of a logical one and go searching their charts for actual setups rather than looking at what price is doing and what it is telling us - it's why I see so many fail or struggle to make any kind of self-sustaining income.
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  • #1,188
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:33am Mar 15, 2012 7:33am
Quoting lovejoy80
I've decided to host a webinar this coming Sunday to run through some of the underlying theory behind how I trade.

Specifically this will focus on Supply / Demand and Orderflow dynamics and how I use this in Price Action strategies.

I'll also run through a couple of the exact methods I use, what I look for and provide some thoughts on mistakes retail traders make when it comes to trade management.

Full details can be found on my website via the link below

[url=http://www.thetradersguild.co.uk/wp/special-webinar/]Supply/Demand and Orderflow...
Had a few emails from people who couldn't make it at this time - I will be recording the webinar and it will be available to download from Sunday evening - same cost and deadline applies whether you want to attend and/or download the recording.
  • #1,189
  • Mar 16, 2012 3:24am Mar 16, 2012 3:24am
Not much of a reaction so far, but key technical levels on these.
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  • #1,190
  • Mar 16, 2012 3:43am Mar 16, 2012 3:43am
I think it's fare to say that my predictive ability on the medium term USDJPY trend have been pretty accurate so far. Three blog posts...

Nov 28th: USD Changing Dynamics

Dec 8th: USD Changing Dynamics - An Update

Jan 25th: USD/JPY - FX Trend of 2012

...and the conviction in my signature from Dec 4th.

Was it luck...or was it down to my ability to read price action across a range of markets to reach a logical conclusion.
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  • #1,191
  • Edited 4:11am Mar 16, 2012 3:56am | Edited 4:11am
Quoting lovejoy80
I think it's fare to say that my predictive ability on the medium term USDJPY trend have been pretty accurate so far. Three blog posts...

Nov 28th: USD Changing Dynamics

Dec 8th: USD Changing Dynamics - An Update

Jan 25th: USD/JPY - FX Trend of 2012

...and the conviction in my signature from Dec 4th.

Was it...
To top it off a chart of UJ with the bottom of the trend being 1st Feb.

Price action trading isn't about being mechanical - if this does that I'll do this or being narrow minded - searching for specific setups e.g. a BUOB off an S/R it's about bringing together various pieces of information about how and why price is moving like it is and what this means price is likely to be doing in the future - this is all I did on USDJPY - compare the price action of two previously well correlated markets.

The problem with most retail price action traders is they think mechanically and go searching their charts for actual setups rather than taking a step back just to watch price movements at certain areas with an understanding of the order-flow dynamics happening. If you're in the former category then you're not a price action trader, you're a system trader.

You'll not encounter very many people on public forums who are true price action traders because price action on public forums is just a term to incorporate a type of trading using a chart without indicators e.g. candlestick bar patterns, chart patterns - the problem is people are taught to look for a specific narrow range of actual setups with so many subjectivities than it becomes a minefield to trade successfully rather than taught true price action and order-flow dynamics which is objective and not subjective and likewise with trade management people are taught to be mechanical rather than logical in their approach.

How many of you have looked over the charts I posted yesterday (Oil and CADCHF) and asked yourself why price should do what it did in these two scenarios? How many have gone looking at other similar setups to see how they have panned out? How many have tried to fathom out what is really happening in these scenario's?

To be a good price action trader you need to be inquisitive and analytical and not just follow like a sheep ... ever heard of the phrase the retail herd whereby they all follow each other and do as one another does in a very predictable mechanical manner ... in such a way that professional traders can take advantage of them...
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  • #1,192
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:04pm Mar 19, 2012 6:04pm
Not been around last few days, but managed to post a few trade setups that looked good last night in the Trading Room.

Out of the 8 posted 3 of them were hit and all 3 did as expected...
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  • #1,193
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:09pm Mar 19, 2012 6:09pm
I saw this one whilst going over my chart tonight...very low chance of price going through this area without a bounce.

If you trade price action you should be trading setups like this and the ones in the previous post all day every day, they are good probability setups.

If you are part of the crowd that consider trading like this aggressive, then you don't understand price action the way the professionals do and you'll likely be part of the crowd that struggle to make decent returns consistently. It's only when you leave the 'herd' behind and learn price action the correct way that you'll give yourself a chance of making consistently good monthly returns.
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  • #1,194
  • Mar 20, 2012 6:51pm Mar 20, 2012 6:51pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Haha...I had to laugh when I saw these charts, we had a discussion about a setup on GCHF today in the Trading Room ... out of every Forex pair I've ever traded this is one that I just seem to lose more trades on than I win and I just don't look at it anymore cos I just don't like it as a pair.

Just by going on your charts I'd say this setup looks very nice. I would consider two setups here:

1. The immediate retest of the daily BUOB - before the bar goes to an obvious FLR I'd take a long at the level you marked - i.e. no need for...
Quoting 5.25
Something of interest.

- Daily BUOB breakout of key D1 H4 levels at 1.4478 & 1.4432.
- Break of upper trendline
- Potential FTB entry on 1.4432?

... with zero draw down.
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  • #1,195
  • Mar 21, 2012 3:42am Mar 21, 2012 3:42am
Quoting 5.25
... with zero draw down.
Nice one
  • #1,196
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:49am Mar 21, 2012 4:49am
As I mentioned on Twitter this morning I was looking to short the FTSE - price missed my level my 2 pips before falling hard - exactly what you'd expect on a return to this type of level - I had 4% risk on this setup, that's how high the probability was.
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  • #1,197
  • Mar 21, 2012 6:06pm Mar 21, 2012 6:06pm
Quoting lovejoy80
As I mentioned on Twitter this morning I was looking to short the FTSE - price missed my level my 2 pips before falling hard - exactly what you'd expect on a return to this type of level - I had 4% risk on this setup, that's how high the probability was.
That is one beautiful level. Is that ETX Capital I see?
  • #1,198
  • Mar 21, 2012 7:11pm Mar 21, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting 5.25
That is one beautiful level. Is that ETX Capital I see?
Yeah you don't get better opportunities to make money from price action trading than a setup like that. IT hit where my TP would have been earlier (5882) which would have resulted in over 12% win (SL would have been @ 5937)...that's how you make some proper money through price action trading. Never mind onto the next.

Dax level looks interesting and a LTF falling channel to watch too.

Yes that is ETX, only recently started testing them out - only for Indices and Bonds though.
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  • #1,199
  • Mar 21, 2012 7:18pm Mar 21, 2012 7:18pm
Couple setups which were hit in Asia last night.
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  • #1,200
  • Mar 22, 2012 2:20am Mar 22, 2012 2:20am
One that hit in Asia overnight.
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