Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1735 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

How soon after you put on a trade do you expect to be "in the money"? 28 replies

How do you see trading - Do you see it as a means to an end? 12 replies

how long do you expect to trade? 10 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #34,681
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:10am Mar 15, 2012 6:10am
There's quite a lot of USD news today, so I wouldn't expect any major moves until at least 12.30 uk time.Ranging scalps for now- quick in and out!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,682
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:12am Mar 15, 2012 6:12am
Quoting Trader131
Morning, cable is ranging at the moment, and Eurusd in a downward channel on the 1hr, with a possible bottom forming at the 1.30 level. I see a few barriers to for the bulls though. the 1hr 62ema has been holding and that upper trendline is getting closer. Made a couple of small scalps this am as have been busy, am currently short on Eurusd, having taken profit on 3/4 of a position at the 15min 50ema stop above 75 on remaining 1/4. I will not go long so close to resistance, so possible long plays depending on PA around 3020, or above 62ema and trendline...
Good stuff 131. Not traded this morning, been on a damn conf call all morning and I struggle to trade and talk at the same time, too much of a distraction.

Did you short the Euro based on the failure to make a new high?
  • #34,683
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:25am Mar 15, 2012 6:25am
I shorted on the 15 min double top. The 15min 200sma (brown) which is also the hourly 50sma was holding and the 1hr 62ema/248ema on the 15 min (line dotted orange) was just behind that. I entered in the wick of the candle after the first bearish engulfing candle showing a double top was forming. See how it went up and tested the 200sma then immediately bounced. My entry was at 3054, the best entry would have been 3060 at the sma, but I'm not complaining!. Whilst I'm typing it's showing support off that 50ema, so I may close that last short early- it's not a time for holding positions yet.
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,684
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:29am Mar 15, 2012 6:29am
Bit of a squeeze going on! Just closed that last one at BE, and am happy to be in cash for now until I see another PA setup with a decent R:R. Patience is something I'm working on!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,685
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:38am Mar 15, 2012 6:38am
Quoting Trader131
I shorted on the 15 min double top. The 15min 200sma (brown) which is also the hourly 50sma was holding and the 1hr 62ema/248ema on the 15 min (line dotted orange) was just behind that. I entered in the wick of the candle after the first bearish engulfing candle showing a double top was forming. See how it went up and tested the 200sma then immediately bounced. My entry was at 3054, the best entry would have been 3060 at the sma, but I'm not complaining!. Whilst I'm typing it's showing support off that 50ema, so I may close that last short early-...
Yep, really good solid trade that in my opinion.

Isn't it interesting how following this method lets you "see" that sort of setup. It seems so obvious to us but I don't see many people trading this way. You don't need a reversal here, just a tight entry off the price action and scalp a few pips off it. That setup will work 8 or 9 times out of 10, it's a really simple way to grow your equity. Lovely trade.

I see the Euro pushing higher now.
  • #34,686
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:39am Mar 15, 2012 6:39am
Trotty, what's your job at the moment?
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,687
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:41am Mar 15, 2012 6:41am
Yes, there's a bit of dollar strength coming in, but I doubt if she'll break the resistance yet.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,688
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:45am Mar 15, 2012 6:45am
Aussie is breaking up though, I wonder if Turtle's in yet?
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,689
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:46am Mar 15, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Trader131
Trotty, what's your job at the moment?
Well my "career" if you can call it that is IT sales, i've worked for a few IT Security Integrators who basically use products and services to secure data for businesses (from hackers, viruses, data leakage etc). Been doing it pretty much all my adult life and it's treated me well financially but it doesn't reward me from an enjoyment aspect. Recently I made the jump to self employment so I subcontract to these resellers but set my own hours and have plenty of time to trade. My plan is this year to gradually phase the IT work out and just focus on trading. I may always keep a day or two doing that each month just to give me the variety and "keep my hand in" but trading is what I want to and will do FT. I can just manage the transition better this way rather than just jumping in with both feet. I do plan on moving overseas in the next few years as I said earlier so that will end the IT stuff dead anyway.

Sorry, that was a very chatty answer!!
  • #34,690
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:57am Mar 15, 2012 6:57am
It sounds like you're in a very strong position. I know you'll be working less hours in IT, but the rate that you get being self employed is usually a lot better than being employed, which should compensate a bit for the financial hit you're taking and it gives you the freedom to pursue the trading. How long have you been trading for?
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,691
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:05am Mar 15, 2012 7:05am
Quoting Trader131
It sounds like you're in a very strong position. I know you'll be working less hours in IT, but the rate that you get being self employed is usually a lot better than being employed, which should compensate a bit for the financial hit you're taking and it gives you the freedom to pursue the trading. How long have you been trading for?
I don't have as much money coming in from a "salary" point of view but when I factor in the rate of growth in my trading account, it more than makes up for it.

I had a stint FT when I got made redundant about 2 years ago but I was just simply not ready either technically or mentally. I decided then that I would go back to work but manage the transition more purposefully this time. I didn't want to be forced into having to trade for a living, I wanted to know that I was ready to do it and make that choice myself. The slow transition is the perfect solution. My lady also does quite well for herself and can cover our bills during any dodgy spells (they, touch wood, seem to be odd days now rather than weeks or months) so I do feel quite lucky. We don't have kids either and I think that helps any aspiring FT trader.

All in all I think it's been about 3.5 years since I first picked up a book on trading. I was able to accelerate my learning by having the full time stint but I also spend so much time on the simulator that you reach a point where things are just so familiar you can almost see how they will play out before it's happened. History repeats in trading, way more than people think.

So what's you story with all this then?
  • #34,692
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:29am Mar 15, 2012 7:29am
Oh, it's a long story, but quite similar to you. I started trading fx live in the autumn 2008, whilst looking after my two young boys and doing a bit of freelance playing. My wife had a full time job with the BBC orchestra here. I joined a trading club for six months where I learned a lot, then left that, and started reading the forums and books. I tried EO's method about a year later, but combined it with the system from the trading club (adding more ma's, cci's etc) but it wasn't working for me, so I tried other methods, and was trading live throughout this with mixed results.

By xmas 2010, I thought I'd "got it" finally, having made seven months consistent profit at minimum 20% a month, but at the time my wife got very ill from stress at work, and I think I found the pressure, like you too much, and blew it all the following month- not using stop loss, overleveraging, trying to make the losses back. Stupid, stupid, I know! I took a break then and tried a bit of supply and demand stuff, but it wasn't really for me, and now I'm here, my wife's gone half time now, and much better (half a job is great!) so I do more freelancing now to cover the financial hit, the boy's are both at school so there is still time to trade.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,693
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:52am Mar 15, 2012 7:52am
Quoting Trader131
Oh, it's a long story, but quite similar to you. I started trading fx live in the autumn 2008, whilst looking after my two young boys and doing a bit of freelance playing. My wife had a full time job with the BBC orchestra here. I joined a trading club for six months where I learned a lot, then left that, and started reading the forums and books. I tried EO's method about a year later, but combined it with the system from the trading club (adding more ma's, cci's etc) but it wasn't working for me, so I tried other methods, and was trading live throughout...
Yeah, very similar paths. One thing it has taught me is the need to stick with one approach. The problem with that at the start is knowing what approaches really work or not but also knowing what approach is right for you. That is so key. Few people can trade the way that Infinity trades. One minute he's scalping 10 pips on a short in a strong uptrand, the next minute he's placing a 100 pip stop on a position trade off the daily charts. He has/had a remarkeable skill but I don't think many people can honestly trade that way and not make a terrible mess of it all. You have to learn and know what your mind is happy to do.

Really chuffed you stuck with this method. I did the same thing and moved away from it at times when it all seemed so hard to understand but I knew these guys were doing something brilliant and I knew I had to keep at it so always came back. Yeah, I use bits of VSA and even S+D here and there now but I don't try to complicate this approach too much. It truly clicked about 9 months ago really and has just been clicking more and more ever since.

Hopefully from here it's just an upward curve

What do you play, by the way?
  • #34,694
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:14am Mar 15, 2012 8:14am
Well, I play viola, and my wife's a cellist. It might sound all romantic, but when it becomes a job, like most things it can get very frustrating, and it seems to be either incredibly boring or incredibly stressful with no middle ground! But I suppose it does have it's occasional rewarding moments too (though not financially!).
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,695
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:23am Mar 15, 2012 8:23am
"I knew these guys were doing something brilliant" Absolutely, that's what drew me back here, again.

The discretionary aspect of EO's method suits my personality. You don't have to be in agreement with the ma cross and indicator crowd. It's purely visual, you don't need to monitor the news all the time just be aware of the calendar that's all, and avoid entering when there's anything major coming out. However the downside is it does require a lot of screen time and is not for the faint-hearted!
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,696
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:25am Mar 15, 2012 8:25am
Quoting Trader131
Well, I play viola, and my wife's a cellist. It might sound all romantic, but when it becomes a job, like most things it can get very frustrating, and it seems to be either incredibly boring or incredibly stressful with no middle ground! But I suppose it does have it's occasional rewarding moments too (though not financially!).
I can sympathise with that. I said on another thread on here about the flexibility of trading that makes it such a great career choice if you can hack the stress. You can choose when, how much and for how long you trade each day. If you have a £100,000 account, you might only need to trde 2 afternoons a week to give you a very nice standard of living. Not many jobs give you that flexibility.

How many hours a week do you think you are trading now?
  • #34,697
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:33am Mar 15, 2012 8:33am
Quoting Trader131
"I knew these guys were doing something brilliant" Absolutely, that's what drew me back here, again.

The discretionary aspect of EO's method suits my personality. You don't have to be in agreement with the ma cross and indicator crowd. It's purely visual, you don't need to monitor the news all the time just be aware of the calendar that's all, and avoid entering when there's anything major coming out. However the downside is it does require a lot of screen time and is not for the faint-hearted!
I have an slightly different spin on that.

Many people will only trade using a defined system because they don't like the lack of defined stops and TPs by discretionary trading. They use backtesting as a comfort blanket that makes them believe that there is x% chance of a positive expectation on any given trade.

I have a big problem with that. Systems "fall over" with great frequency, we hear about that all the time. Past results are never a gaurantee of future performance so you must always live in doubt that a trade may fail and be the start of a spirit sapping losing streak.

The difference between that and understanding price action is that price action will give you almost uniquivacle hints as to where price is going. Even in a sideways market, it eventually has to move in one way or the other and the way that markets move, they cannot move without dropping pretty big hints to you as to where they are headed. For me, that gives me a much better sense of comfort in my trading than blindly following a system. Let the market speak to you and act on that, if it starts to talk a little differently, listen harder and learn the new way as you go along.

As you pointed out before, taking profit is always the hardest part. Entries are a doddle to find using this approach but knowing when and where to take profit is a bigger challenege. If you find that particular holy grail, give us a nod, eh?
  • #34,698
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:54am Mar 15, 2012 8:54am
My trading hours vary as work is never constant, but I suppose I average between 10 and 30 hours a week, mostly nearer to 30 as a lot of work for me is at the weekend. But if things work out a few hours trading a day could be all that is needed. I only have to take 3 or 4 trades like the one on Eurusd today to make a good living with a decent sized account. It makes it sound so easy like that doesn't it?

You know, trading is a lot like music. You have to put in the practice, repeat, repeat, analyse, and hone your technique before you can put on a good performance. The more prepared you are for a performance, the less likely you are to suffer from nerves and mistakes, as it just becomes ingrained and automatic. I'm sure that's why the simulator has helped you so much.
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,699
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:06am Mar 15, 2012 9:06am
Bull flag on Aussie at the moment, not one I usually trade, but I'm long at 105000 off the 1hr 62ema and trendline retest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd15min.gif Size: 25 KB
There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
  • #34,700
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:20am Mar 15, 2012 9:20am
Taking half off at 15
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There is no top. There are always further heights to reach. Jascha Heifetz
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